# 1009: Bold Predictions

An episode of [The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1224965828), 26 Aug 2025, 24 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0a233618-d694-4c81-a139-b34e00f98fb1/033dd94e-1887-413c-a86b-b34e00f9bf8c/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=5747cc82-33a9-497c-8353-b34e00f98fbe

JJ goes over 10 bold predictions that he's making for the 2025 fantasy football season. Order the Late-Round Draft Guide on LateRound.com, and make sure to sign up for the free newsletter. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zachera
[0:06] Speaker 1: j J zacher Reason. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen
[0:14] Speaker 1: in this episode one thousand and nine of the Late
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[1:50] Speaker 1: Slash NFL dash Best Dashball sponsored by DK We've gone
[1:56] Speaker 1: over a lot of stuff since last season ended. There
[1:59] Speaker 1: was all the prospecting work during draft season. There were
[2:02] Speaker 1: some strategy episodes of the show. There was the infamous
[2:05] Speaker 1: Romadunze versus a Mecha Buca conversation back in May. We've
[2:08] Speaker 1: done players to target, players to avoid, and that's just
[2:11] Speaker 1: on the podcast. Outside of this show, you've had the
[2:14] Speaker 1: Late Round Prospect Guy and the Late Round Draft Guide.
[2:17] Speaker 1: You've had live streams the Patreon. There's been so much
[2:20] Speaker 1: content and so much research. It's about time for this
[2:24] Speaker 1: season to start. But before that happens, I've got to
[2:27] Speaker 1: fire off some bold takes. Now, a lot of the
[2:30] Speaker 1: Bold Predictions content in the fantasy football space it's just
[2:33] Speaker 1: vibes based, and some of this is vibeses based too,
[2:36] Speaker 1: Don't get me wrong, But I still want to stay
[2:38] Speaker 1: true to myself as an analyst and just be logical,
[2:42] Speaker 1: and I want to bring that to the Bold Prediction analysis.
[2:45] Speaker 1: I always think of this as a range of outcomes exercise.
[2:48] Speaker 1: I'm not looking at median outcomes here. I'm looking at
[2:51] Speaker 1: the high end and the low end, and I'm explaining,
[2:54] Speaker 1: hopefully thoughtfully, how those outcomes could come to be. And
[2:58] Speaker 1: I hope this is more than just entertainment for you.
[3:00] Speaker 1: I genuinely hope that you can walk away from today's
[3:03] Speaker 1: show thinking about things a little bit differently after hearing
[3:06] Speaker 1: the why. But today I'll be talking about ten bold
[3:10] Speaker 1: predictions for the fantasy season, and there are actually five
[3:13] Speaker 1: more of them that I'm gonna email out in the
[3:15] Speaker 1: Late Round newsletter. Those won't go out until Thursday, so
[3:18] Speaker 1: if you're not subscribed again, it's absolutely free. I'm giving
[3:22] Speaker 1: you two days to subscribe. Just head the Lateround dot
[3:25] Speaker 1: com click newsletter and submit your email address. It's that simple,
[3:30] Speaker 1: and you may want to do that anyway, because in
[3:31] Speaker 1: season content starts next week and I'll be sending my
[3:35] Speaker 1: fifteen Transactions newsletter every Tuesday morning, so again, more bold
[3:39] Speaker 1: predictions will come your way on Thursday. Just subscribe for
[3:43] Speaker 1: free to that newsletter over on lateround dot com. That's
[3:47] Speaker 1: enough with the intro, though, Let's get to these predictions.
[3:52] Speaker 1: The first bold prediction is that Drake London will finish
[3:55] Speaker 1: as a top three wide receiver in Fantasy football this year.
[3:59] Speaker 1: Now this is bold because obviously there's a lot of
[4:01] Speaker 1: good wide receiver competition out there, and Drake London right
[4:04] Speaker 1: now is a fringe top ten wide out by ADP,
[4:07] Speaker 1: but I think this could happen. He's been really good
[4:10] Speaker 1: in the NFL. To start his career, He's seen a
[4:12] Speaker 1: two point zero yards per out run rate, and two
[4:14] Speaker 1: of his first three seasons we usually only see that
[4:18] Speaker 1: from elite, elite wide receivers. Over his three years, he's
[4:22] Speaker 1: had target shairs of twenty nine percent, twenty three percent,
[4:25] Speaker 1: and twenty nine percent. Basically, his peripherals have been awesome.
[4:29] Speaker 1: And now you get Michael Pennox under center for Atlanta.
[4:32] Speaker 1: He's not afraid to take chances down the field. In fact,
[4:35] Speaker 1: last year he had an averaged up the target of
[4:37] Speaker 1: ten point six among all Atlanta Falcons quarterbacks since twenty
[4:41] Speaker 1: eleven who had one hundred or more dropbacks, that a
[4:44] Speaker 1: dot by Michael Pennix that was the highest. And in
[4:48] Speaker 1: his three starts last year, yes, limited sample size, London
[4:52] Speaker 1: had almost a thirty nine percent target share per game rate.
[4:55] Speaker 1: So what if all of this just continues. What if
[4:57] Speaker 1: Pennis continues to push it down the field and Drake
[4:59] Speaker 1: lo London keeps seeing a really high target share And
[5:03] Speaker 1: remember Darnell Mooney's banged up right now, So I could
[5:06] Speaker 1: definitely see a monster season from Drake London. The second
[5:12] Speaker 1: bold prediction, Trevor Lawrence will outscore Baker Mayfield. This is
[5:17] Speaker 1: bold if you look at Football Guy's average draft position data,
[5:20] Speaker 1: which is an aggregate. Mayfield's being drafted as a QB seven.
[5:24] Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence is the QB twenty. But here's why this
[5:28] Speaker 1: could happen. Now, Obviously this seems like a Liam Cohen
[5:31] Speaker 1: base prediction, and it kind of is. But it's kind
[5:33] Speaker 1: of not. As I've been saying this offseason, Baker Mayfield,
[5:37] Speaker 1: he's bound to regress. He had a seven point two
[5:39] Speaker 1: percent touchdown rate last year, which was by far the
[5:42] Speaker 1: highest of his career, and quarterbacks who have been close
[5:45] Speaker 1: to that mark historically, they haven't done well the following season,
[5:49] Speaker 1: or at least nearly as well. There have been fifteen
[5:52] Speaker 1: quarterbacks since twenty eleven who had a touchdown rate between
[5:55] Speaker 1: six point seven percent and seven point seven percent. So
[5:58] Speaker 1: those are numbers that are plus or minus point five
[6:00] Speaker 1: percent from Baker Mayfield's touchdown rate last year. Of those
[6:04] Speaker 1: fifteen quarterbacks, they're average points per game in that season
[6:08] Speaker 1: in that end season where they had a high touchdown rate,
[6:11] Speaker 1: it was twenty one point four. That's in standard scoring.
[6:15] Speaker 1: The following year, their average points per game was seventeen
[6:19] Speaker 1: point two. Every single quarterback saw a drop in points
[6:24] Speaker 1: per game, and losing Liam Cohen as his offensive coordinator
[6:28] Speaker 1: that's not gonna help things, and the injuries across that
[6:30] Speaker 1: offense that's not gonna help either. But Baker Mayfield's loss
[6:34] Speaker 1: of Cohen is Trevor Lawrence's gain. Last season, Lawrence was
[6:38] Speaker 1: solidly in the top twenty and fantasy points per dropback.
[6:41] Speaker 1: That's one of the most predictive metrics that you're gonna
[6:43] Speaker 1: find a quarterback. And Lawrence has some rushing upside too.
[6:47] Speaker 1: He scored between two point seven and three point seven
[6:49] Speaker 1: points per game via rushing every single year of his career. Mayfield, meanwhile,
[6:55] Speaker 1: who was a really good rusher last year, He's only
[6:57] Speaker 1: been well above that two point zero mark just once,
[7:00] Speaker 1: just last year. Now, a lot of quarterbacks could have
[7:03] Speaker 1: been thrown into Trevor Lawrence's spot in this prediction, whether
[7:07] Speaker 1: it's Jordan Love, Justin Herbert whoever. I just went with
[7:10] Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence because I think he's a great value very
[7:13] Speaker 1: very late in drafts. Traveon Henderson will finish as a
[7:19] Speaker 1: top ten running back. Now, this is obviously more PPR focused,
[7:22] Speaker 1: but this is bold because according to ADP, he's being
[7:25] Speaker 1: drafted right now around RB eighteen. But this could happen.
[7:29] Speaker 1: Trayvon Henderson had a very very good ZAP score. It
[7:33] Speaker 1: was ninety four point one because of his pass catching profile.
[7:36] Speaker 1: As a freshman at Ohio State, he got twenty seven
[7:39] Speaker 1: balls for three hundred and twelve yards and four touchdowns.
[7:42] Speaker 1: That might not sound very special, but it is when
[7:45] Speaker 1: you look at that context. He did that on a
[7:48] Speaker 1: team as a freshman while playing with Jackson Smith and Jigba,
[7:52] Speaker 1: Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Marvin Harrison Junior, and a Mecha Buca.
[7:57] Speaker 1: Henderson's immediately going to be a receiving thread out of
[7:59] Speaker 1: the back field for New England. He has fifteen percent
[8:02] Speaker 1: target share upside Romandre Stevenson. Last season he struggled in
[8:07] Speaker 1: yards per route run and we know that's predictive for
[8:10] Speaker 1: future season target share. So that should make us feel
[8:13] Speaker 1: even more confident in Trayvon Henderson's pass catching ceiling. Now,
[8:16] Speaker 1: the problem for Henderson is what he's going to do
[8:18] Speaker 1: on the ground. Right Romandre Stevenson's there, He's probably gonna
[8:22] Speaker 1: see a lot of the early down work, especially early
[8:24] Speaker 1: on in the season. But this is about bold predictions.
[8:27] Speaker 1: What if Henderson just sees a little bit more rushing
[8:30] Speaker 1: work than we're expecting. I'm not talking like a huge
[8:33] Speaker 1: backfield rush share, but what if he finishes the year
[8:36] Speaker 1: with like a fifty five percent running back rush share
[8:38] Speaker 1: per game that would have ranked twenty seventh last season.
[8:41] Speaker 1: That's not far fetched. Well, since twenty eleven, there have
[8:44] Speaker 1: been just five instances where a running back had between
[8:47] Speaker 1: a fifty percent and sixty percent running back rush share
[8:49] Speaker 1: and a thirteen percent and sixteen percent target share. I
[8:53] Speaker 1: think it's very possible that Trayyon Henderson finishes within that range.
[8:57] Speaker 1: Those five running backs, they finished eighteenth, thirteenth, twelfth, eighth,
[9:02] Speaker 1: and sixth, and PPR points per game. So top ten
[9:07] Speaker 1: is definitely feasible for Trayveon Henderson. Calvin Ridley will outscore
[9:14] Speaker 1: Garrett Wilson. This one's bold because according to Football Guys
[9:18] Speaker 1: Aggregate ADP, Ridley's falling off draft boards around wide receiver
[9:21] Speaker 1: thirty Garrett Wilson wide receiver fifteen. Now, look, I've talked
[9:26] Speaker 1: about this in the past, but rookie quarterbacks are not
[9:28] Speaker 1: typically good news for their pass catchers, at least in
[9:31] Speaker 1: fantasy football. Since twenty eleven, we've seen forty one first
[9:34] Speaker 1: year quarterbacks throw at three hundred or more times. Only
[9:38] Speaker 1: sixteen wideouts from those rookie quarterbacks teams they ended up
[9:41] Speaker 1: finishing as a top twenty four option in PPR points
[9:44] Speaker 1: per game. Only four of them were top twelve players. Now,
[9:48] Speaker 1: the interesting part of that rookie quarterback statistic is that
[9:51] Speaker 1: of the wide outs who bucked that trend, who finishes
[9:53] Speaker 1: a top twenty four option their average target chair. The
[9:57] Speaker 1: average target chair among those six teen wide receivers was
[10:01] Speaker 1: almost twenty six percent, which means if a wide receiver
[10:05] Speaker 1: typically does well with a rookie quarterback, he's doing well
[10:09] Speaker 1: because he sees a high target share, Which makes sense
[10:12] Speaker 1: because rookie quarterbacks their teams usually don't throw as much
[10:15] Speaker 1: and their teams usually don't score as much either. And
[10:19] Speaker 1: when you look at Calvin Ridley and you look at
[10:20] Speaker 1: his situation, don't you see someone who has that twenty five,
[10:24] Speaker 1: twenty six, even twenty seven percent target share upside? And yeah,
[10:28] Speaker 1: before you come at me, I know that DJ Moore
[10:31] Speaker 1: finishes a wide receiver one with Justin Fields in the past,
[10:34] Speaker 1: but that year he had a higher yards per target,
[10:37] Speaker 1: yards per route run, targets per route run, touchdown share,
[10:40] Speaker 1: the list goes on and on. They were higher than
[10:43] Speaker 1: Garrett Wilson has ever seen that he's ever had in
[10:46] Speaker 1: his career. I don't think people fully realize that DJ
[10:49] Speaker 1: Moore that season he was on another planet. From an
[10:51] Speaker 1: efficiency perspective, Wilson has yet to beat his year one
[10:55] Speaker 1: yards per rout run rate of one point eighty five,
[10:58] Speaker 1: and despite having over one hundred catch last year, he
[11:01] Speaker 1: was the wide receiver nineteen in PPR points per game.
[11:05] Speaker 1: What are we really expecting out of a run heavy
[11:07] Speaker 1: offense with Justin Fields's quarterback? So to me, if cam
[11:10] Speaker 1: Ward is just like pretty good, he doesn't even have
[11:13] Speaker 1: to be elite. He doesn't have to be Jaden Daniels
[11:15] Speaker 1: from last year. If he's just pretty good, I think
[11:18] Speaker 1: Calvin Ridley can easily outscore Garrett Wilson. The fifth bold
[11:23] Speaker 1: prediction is that Drake May will end up as this
[11:26] Speaker 1: year's best late round quarterback target. This one's bold because
[11:30] Speaker 1: there are so many late round quarterbacks to choose from
[11:33] Speaker 1: this year, and I like a lot of them, but
[11:35] Speaker 1: I like Drake May the most. I did an episode
[11:38] Speaker 1: earlier this offseason on second year quarterbacks, on sophomore quarterbacks,
[11:42] Speaker 1: and they look really good this year. I love Drake May,
[11:45] Speaker 1: I like bow Knicks, I love Caleb Williams. They're all
[11:48] Speaker 1: in a really good spot. JJ McCarthy too, maybe even
[11:50] Speaker 1: Michael Pennix. They're some of the best bets that you
[11:53] Speaker 1: can make. And that QB seven to QB eighteen range
[11:56] Speaker 1: by ADP. Now, I'm not talking about those specific quarterbacks.
[11:59] Speaker 1: I'm just talking about second year guys in general, and
[12:02] Speaker 1: we're always looking for mobility at the quarterback position. Two,
[12:05] Speaker 1: Drake May's coming off a season where the average over
[12:07] Speaker 1: four points per game with his legs. That was a
[12:10] Speaker 1: top eight number in the league when looking at passers
[12:13] Speaker 1: with at least three hundred dropbacks. And get this, here's
[12:16] Speaker 1: a list of all the rookie quarterbacks who were able
[12:18] Speaker 1: to hit three and a half points per game via
[12:20] Speaker 1: rushing and eight points per game via passing with a
[12:23] Speaker 1: minimum of three hundred dropbacks since twenty eleven. Cam Newton,
[12:28] Speaker 1: Robert Griffin, Third Russell Wilson, Jamis Winston, Dak Prescott, Josh Allen,
[12:33] Speaker 1: Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, Drake May, Bo Nix, and Jaden Daniels.
[12:37] Speaker 1: That's a pretty solid list of quarterbacks. Drake May's got
[12:41] Speaker 1: a new system, he's got new weapons. He should be
[12:44] Speaker 1: able to take a step forward as a passer this year,
[12:46] Speaker 1: and if that happens, it's pretty easy to see him
[12:49] Speaker 1: finishing as like a top six, top eight quarterback. Kyron
[12:54] Speaker 1: Williams will finish outside the top eighteen running backs. This
[12:58] Speaker 1: one's bold because on Ada he's being drafted as the
[13:01] Speaker 1: RB twelve. He's been a top ten running back and
[13:04] Speaker 1: back to back seasons in PPR points per game. And
[13:07] Speaker 1: here's why this can happen. Now. I'm not massively low
[13:10] Speaker 1: on Kyron Williams this year, mostly because there's sort of
[13:12] Speaker 1: a dead zone in drafts around that third round range. Now,
[13:15] Speaker 1: I don't think he should be drafted in the early
[13:17] Speaker 1: third round, but if he's there in the late third,
[13:20] Speaker 1: not a big deal. A lot of that just has
[13:21] Speaker 1: to do with the competition around him just getting worse
[13:24] Speaker 1: as this summer's gone on. But with that being said,
[13:27] Speaker 1: I think Williams workload is more fragile than most realized.
[13:31] Speaker 1: His running back rush share was almost eighty five percent
[13:33] Speaker 1: last year, and that was after a season where it
[13:36] Speaker 1: was at seventy eight percent. That's a really really high number.
[13:39] Speaker 1: Since twenty eleven, we've seen seventeen running back seasons where
[13:42] Speaker 1: the running back had a running back rush are per
[13:44] Speaker 1: game of eighty percent or better while hitting three hundred
[13:47] Speaker 1: rush attempts. So they saw a huge percentage of their
[13:50] Speaker 1: team's backfield rushes and they also stayed healthy throughout the season.
[13:54] Speaker 1: Now we have next season data on twelve of those
[13:56] Speaker 1: seventeen runners, and of those twelve, only three of them
[14:00] Speaker 1: saw their running back rush shares increase the following year,
[14:03] Speaker 1: and the only one to see an increase of more
[14:04] Speaker 1: than three percentage points is this outlier named Derrick Henry.
[14:09] Speaker 1: The average player from that sample saw a drop of
[14:12] Speaker 1: thirteen percentage points in running back rush share. I don't
[14:16] Speaker 1: think it would be all that shocking if Kyrien Williams
[14:18] Speaker 1: goes from an eighty five percent running back rush share
[14:20] Speaker 1: last year to more like a seventy percent one this year.
[14:23] Speaker 1: They added Jarques Hunter to the mix, who I thought
[14:26] Speaker 1: was a really really good prospect, and he's had a
[14:28] Speaker 1: good summer too. Meanwhile, where's the ceiling coming from from
[14:32] Speaker 1: a pass catching standpoint. LA Over their last six seasons,
[14:36] Speaker 1: they've ranked thirty second, thirty second, thirty first, thirty second, thirtieth,
[14:41] Speaker 1: and thirty second in running back target share. Maybe that
[14:44] Speaker 1: changes this year, but we can't really project that huge
[14:47] Speaker 1: of a change, right. And then also on top of
[14:50] Speaker 1: all this, you have this Matthew Stafford back issue. Hopefully
[14:53] Speaker 1: that doesn't matter. Hopefully Stafford just plays the entire season,
[14:57] Speaker 1: but that adds more volatility to Hyan Williams's overall profile.
[15:02] Speaker 1: Like I said, I still have Williams ranked as a
[15:04] Speaker 1: top fifteen running back in fantasy, but it's easy to
[15:07] Speaker 1: see these paths where things can go slightly south, and
[15:11] Speaker 1: if things go slightly south, he could hypothetically finish outside
[15:14] Speaker 1: the top eighteen. Tucker Craft will finish as a top
[15:20] Speaker 1: five tight end. Now. I know that Kraft is a
[15:22] Speaker 1: popular late round tight end, but he's still tight end
[15:25] Speaker 1: eleven by ADP. That's why this is bold, but I
[15:28] Speaker 1: think this could happen. We're not gonna see Tucker Craft
[15:32] Speaker 1: have a nine point three yards after the catch per
[15:34] Speaker 1: reception rate like he had last year, because quite literally,
[15:38] Speaker 1: since twenty eleven, only one other tight end has done
[15:40] Speaker 1: that with at least fifty targets, but that one tight end,
[15:44] Speaker 1: George Kittle. Sometimes when there are numbers that are bound
[15:47] Speaker 1: to regress, they can still tell us a story craft.
[15:50] Speaker 1: Even getting to that hive of a yak per reception
[15:53] Speaker 1: is really impressive. Since twenty eleven, the only tight ends
[15:57] Speaker 1: who have gotten to is seven and a half yards
[15:58] Speaker 1: after the catch per reception with fifty or more targets
[16:01] Speaker 1: have been George Kittle, Dallas Goddard, David Joku, Noah Vance McDonald,
[16:06] Speaker 1: Evan Ingram, Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, and Brent Sellick. That's
[16:10] Speaker 1: not a bad list. We need athleticism for our tight
[16:14] Speaker 1: ends to give us a big, big season, and Kraft
[16:17] Speaker 1: has that. He showed that last year, and we also
[16:20] Speaker 1: won a path for our tight end to be a
[16:22] Speaker 1: top two target geter on his own team. Now, I
[16:25] Speaker 1: like Matthew Golden, I like Jayden Reid, I even like
[16:28] Speaker 1: Romeo Dobbs. But with the Packers pass catchers, this could
[16:32] Speaker 1: go in a lot of different directions. That gives an
[16:35] Speaker 1: opportunity for Tucker Kraft to see a lot of volume,
[16:38] Speaker 1: and the Packers are definitely a candidate to throw the
[16:41] Speaker 1: ball a lot more this year than they did last year,
[16:44] Speaker 1: so it makes him a very intriguing late round option,
[16:46] Speaker 1: and with tight end being so weak outside the top three,
[16:49] Speaker 1: in my opinion, I think that he could finish as
[16:51] Speaker 1: a top five option this year. Keon Coleman will outscore
[16:57] Speaker 1: Jerry Judy. This one's bowld as Jerry Judy is the
[17:00] Speaker 1: wide receiver thirty two by ADP. Keon Coleman Wide Receiver
[17:04] Speaker 1: forty eight. Now, I think when I look back on
[17:07] Speaker 1: this one, it could look really really stupid. I mean,
[17:10] Speaker 1: a lot of these probably will. I'm probably only gonna
[17:13] Speaker 1: hit on like four or five of them, but this
[17:15] Speaker 1: one in particular might look kind of dumb. Because Keon
[17:18] Speaker 1: Coleman last season wasn't like a special rookie wide receiver.
[17:21] Speaker 1: I think that this season could go in a lot
[17:23] Speaker 1: of different directions. But that's also entirely the point. Coleman's
[17:27] Speaker 1: yards perout run last year was one point seven to one,
[17:30] Speaker 1: actually not bad for a rookie wide receiver, and that
[17:33] Speaker 1: was a harder number. He only ran thirty six routes
[17:36] Speaker 1: from the slot last year. According to PFF, his average
[17:39] Speaker 1: depth of target was fifteen point five, so He's basically
[17:43] Speaker 1: just running down the field on the perimeter pretty consistently
[17:46] Speaker 1: in that Bill's offense. And when you query some historical
[17:49] Speaker 1: comps for Coleman, you do get some good names Courtland Sutton,
[17:54] Speaker 1: Mike Evans, George Pickens, those types of wide receivers, those
[17:57] Speaker 1: bigger bodied perimeter receivers who ruined to larger roles as
[18:01] Speaker 1: they developed in the NFL. And Coleman, to me, has
[18:04] Speaker 1: a chance for that. He was a little raw entering
[18:07] Speaker 1: the league, which makes sense because he was twenty one
[18:09] Speaker 1: years old, but he has the size and he has
[18:11] Speaker 1: the ability to bring it all together and make a
[18:14] Speaker 1: splash in the NFL. And I think his size, his
[18:17] Speaker 1: frame is where this bold prediction can really work. He
[18:20] Speaker 1: led Buffalo in red zone targets last year. Buffalo is
[18:23] Speaker 1: a huge regression candidate with how they score their touchdowns.
[18:27] Speaker 1: Forty eight percent of their scores last year came via
[18:30] Speaker 1: the pass. That's a really low number. That number was
[18:33] Speaker 1: closer to sixty five percent for them over the last
[18:36] Speaker 1: five seasons. Meanwhile, on the other side of this prediction,
[18:39] Speaker 1: you got Jerry Judy. He's never been much of a
[18:42] Speaker 1: touchdown scorer. I mean the dude had twelve hundred and
[18:44] Speaker 1: twenty nine yards last year and he found the end
[18:46] Speaker 1: zone just four times. Some might say regression, but let's
[18:51] Speaker 1: not pretend that Cleveland is projected to be some powerhouse offense.
[18:55] Speaker 1: Now Joe Flacco is starting for Cleveland. That's better than
[18:58] Speaker 1: the alternatives. From a fantasy footballpers there's no doubt, but
[19:01] Speaker 1: we can't assume that he's going to be under center
[19:04] Speaker 1: for all seventeen games. In fact, I would bet that
[19:06] Speaker 1: he's not gonna be under center for all seventeen games.
[19:09] Speaker 1: And while Judy did have some great moments last year,
[19:12] Speaker 1: he also ran pretty pure. For instance, during the five
[19:15] Speaker 1: week stretch where Cedric Tillman was a key player in
[19:18] Speaker 1: that offense, Judy averaged a little over fourteen PPR points
[19:21] Speaker 1: per game. He had a modest nineteen point six percent
[19:24] Speaker 1: target share. That's fine from a production standpoint, but the
[19:27] Speaker 1: peripherals really weren't that great. His yards per out run
[19:31] Speaker 1: last year, his targets per out run, they didn't look
[19:33] Speaker 1: all that different from previous seasons. And Jamis Winston played
[19:37] Speaker 1: a huge role too. When Judy played without Jamis Winston,
[19:40] Speaker 1: he averaged nine point three PPR points per game, and
[19:44] Speaker 1: last season Cleveland finished with the second highest pass rate
[19:47] Speaker 1: in football. No player ran more routes than Jerry Judy
[19:52] Speaker 1: in the entire NFL. I just don't think that's going
[19:56] Speaker 1: to continue, or at least I don't think we can
[19:58] Speaker 1: bank on that. So much up in the air in Cleveland.
[20:02] Speaker 1: I could see where this season goes south for Jerry Judy,
[20:05] Speaker 1: and if Coleman's able to develop, maybe he scores more
[20:07] Speaker 1: touchdowns this year in an offense that should have more
[20:10] Speaker 1: passing touchdowns. I could see this bold prediction coming true.
[20:16] Speaker 1: The ninth bold prediction today is at least eight quarterbacks
[20:20] Speaker 1: will finish with twenty or more points per game. Now,
[20:23] Speaker 1: this is in standard scoring, but since twenty eleven, there
[20:26] Speaker 1: have only been three seasons where eight or more quarterbacks
[20:29] Speaker 1: scored twenty or more standard Fantasy points per game. Over
[20:32] Speaker 1: the last three years, we've been at four, four, and
[20:35] Speaker 1: six quarterbacks hitting that mark. But I think this could
[20:39] Speaker 1: happen this year. There's nothing wrong with spending up at
[20:42] Speaker 1: quarterback and getting one of the Big four in my opinion,
[20:45] Speaker 1: but outside of those quarterbacks, the position is so so deep.
[20:49] Speaker 1: I mean, you're getting mid range quarterback twos like Jordan
[20:52] Speaker 1: Love and Justin Herbert. Even low end QB two is
[20:55] Speaker 1: like Bryce Young are in pretty good spots. So with
[20:59] Speaker 1: the position being as strong as it is, and most importantly,
[21:02] Speaker 1: with so many dual threat quarterbacks out there, it wouldn't
[21:05] Speaker 1: shock me at all if we see one of the
[21:07] Speaker 1: best quarterback seasons in some time, at least from a
[21:09] Speaker 1: fantasy perspective. Now, I don't think that we're gonna see
[21:12] Speaker 1: like a twenty twenty season where ten quarterbacks got to
[21:15] Speaker 1: twenty plus points per game, but eight is definitely within reach,
[21:19] Speaker 1: even though we haven't been close to that number since
[21:21] Speaker 1: twenty twenty one. The last bold prediction today is that
[21:26] Speaker 1: both JK. Dobbins and RJ. Harvey will finish as top
[21:30] Speaker 1: twenty four running backs. This one's bold because obviously they
[21:34] Speaker 1: play for the same team and JK. Dobbins he gets
[21:36] Speaker 1: selected at RB thirty four, RJ. Harvey just inside the
[21:39] Speaker 1: top twenty four. But here's why this could happen. Dating
[21:43] Speaker 1: back to twenty eleven, we've averaged one point seven running
[21:46] Speaker 1: back teammate pairings finishing in the top twenty four together
[21:49] Speaker 1: in PPR points per game per season. In recent seasons,
[21:53] Speaker 1: we've seen that with Detroit right, David Montgomery and Jamier Gibbs.
[21:57] Speaker 1: In previous seasons, it was the Browns with like Nick Chubb,
[22:00] Speaker 1: Kareem Hunt, you know who else did it New Orleans
[22:03] Speaker 1: and they did it twice both times under Sean Payton.
[22:08] Speaker 1: Peyton's backfields are very attractive for fantasy football purposes, since
[22:13] Speaker 1: at least twenty eleven, his teams have never finished below
[22:16] Speaker 1: sixth and running back target share. Even last year, when
[22:19] Speaker 1: they had absolute dust at running back, the Broncos still
[22:23] Speaker 1: finished eighteenth, the relatively average ranking and PPR points score
[22:27] Speaker 1: at the position. The team invested in the explosive RJ.
[22:30] Speaker 1: Harvey and then JK. Dobbins is coming off a solid season.
[22:34] Speaker 1: They have a really good offensive line, and they have
[22:36] Speaker 1: a really good defense that could keep them in positive
[22:39] Speaker 1: game scripts and that could keep them focusing on the
[22:41] Speaker 1: running back position and giving both Harvey and Dobbins a
[22:45] Speaker 1: whole lot of work. So it would not shock me
[22:48] Speaker 1: if Denver's one of those teams who has two running
[22:51] Speaker 1: backs in the top twenty four this year in PPR
[22:53] Speaker 1: points per game. Just to reiterate, there's gonna be five
[22:56] Speaker 1: more bold predictions that will hit your inbox. If you're
[22:59] Speaker 1: a Late Round newsletter subscriber. To subscribe, it's absolutely free.
[23:03] Speaker 1: Go to Lateround dot com and just click newsletter. But
[23:07] Speaker 1: that's it for today's show. Thanks Alvy for listening. If
[23:09] Speaker 1: you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast,
[23:11] Speaker 1: make sure you are bustitting for it pretty much anywhere
[23:14] Speaker 1: podcast can be found, and it'll follow me on Twitter
[23:16] Speaker 1: and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. The season
[23:20] Speaker 1: finale of Becoming a Best Ball bro will drop tomorrow,
[23:23] Speaker 1: and then later in the week we've got another mailbag episode.
[23:26] Speaker 1: Appreciate you guys listening. I'll talk to you tomorrow

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