# 1054: Mailbag - Brock Purdy's Return, RJ Harvey's Outlook, and More

An episode of [The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1224965828), 14 Nov 2025, 15 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0a233618-d694-4c81-a139-b34e00f98fb1/fd73ab53-4b40-4b31-9e79-b3940133a79e/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=5747cc82-33a9-497c-8353-b34e00f98fbe

Is RJ Harvey a league-winner? Should fantasy managers be buying or selling Brock Purdy? Can Jayden Reed be a starter down the stretch? JJ answers those questions -- and more -- on this week's mailbag episode. Want to help us improve your Late-Round experience? Click here to take a brief survey! Make sure to check out LateRound.com to subscribe to the free newsletter. Want to get weekly and rest-of-season rankings while accessing the amazing Late-Round community on Discord? Become a Late-Round member today. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zachera
[0:06] Speaker 1: J J Zacheron. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zachary saying
[0:14] Speaker 1: in this episode ten fifty four of the Late Round
[0:16] Speaker 1: Fantasy Football podcast a classic mailbag pause, thanks for tuning in.
[0:25] Speaker 1: Before I get to the mailbag questions this week, I've
[0:27] Speaker 1: got a favor to ask you. If you check out
[0:29] Speaker 1: the description for this episode, you'll see there's a link
[0:32] Speaker 1: to a survey. That survey shouldn't take that long to
[0:35] Speaker 1: fill out, but it's really really helpful for myself and
[0:38] Speaker 1: David Kitchen, my COO, to get honest feedback from you guys.
[0:42] Speaker 1: Like I said earlier this week, I want Late Round
[0:45] Speaker 1: Fantasy Football, this podcast, the content that I'm doing. I
[0:48] Speaker 1: want those things to be as helpful and entertaining as
[0:51] Speaker 1: they possibly can be. And the best way to do
[0:53] Speaker 1: that is through listening to what's working for you guys
[0:55] Speaker 1: and what's not. So if you could fill it out,
[0:58] Speaker 1: I would greatly greatly appreciate it. Now let's get to
[1:01] Speaker 1: these mailbag questions. The first question is an email. It says, hey,
[1:07] Speaker 1: JJ love the podcast got a couple of hits from
[1:09] Speaker 1: you this year. Awesome. Can you explain your adjusted fantasy
[1:13] Speaker 1: points allowed stat I don't understand it, but you bring
[1:16] Speaker 1: it up every week when talking about matchups. Thanks Isaac. Yeah,
[1:21] Speaker 1: I think this is a good thing to bring up
[1:23] Speaker 1: because people come and go with this show and don't
[1:25] Speaker 1: automatically know exactly what I'm talking about. I adjust a
[1:29] Speaker 1: lot of different metrics, target share, points allowed, rushing yards allowed,
[1:33] Speaker 1: the list goes on. All the adjusting is is adjusting
[1:37] Speaker 1: for strength of opponent, for strength of schedule. So let's
[1:40] Speaker 1: just take the Cowboys against wide receivers this year. They've
[1:43] Speaker 1: allowed over three hundred and sixty p PIER points to
[1:46] Speaker 1: wide receivers in nine games played. But technically, according to
[1:50] Speaker 1: my numbers, the Steelers have actually allowed more points to
[1:53] Speaker 1: wide receivers, like one more point. So we might conclude,
[1:57] Speaker 1: based on the fact that both teams have had their bye,
[2:00] Speaker 1: so on a points per game basis, the Steelers are
[2:02] Speaker 1: technically allowing more points to wide receivers than the Cowboys are.
[2:06] Speaker 1: We might conclude that the Steelers are a better matchup
[2:08] Speaker 1: for wide receivers in terms of fantasy points allowed because
[2:12] Speaker 1: they've technically allowed one more PPR point across the season
[2:16] Speaker 1: to the position at the very least they're really comparable.
[2:20] Speaker 1: But what I do is look at who they've actually
[2:22] Speaker 1: faced and how many fantasy points those teams generally score
[2:25] Speaker 1: as a wide receiver room. So Pittsburgh when you look
[2:29] Speaker 1: at that, they're still bad against wide receivers, but wide
[2:32] Speaker 1: receiver rooms generally, you're scoring seven point six PPR points
[2:36] Speaker 1: per game above their average when they face Pittsburgh wide
[2:39] Speaker 1: receiver rooms. When they face Dallas, they're scoring eleven points
[2:43] Speaker 1: six PPR points per game above that season long average.
[2:46] Speaker 1: That's a pretty significant difference. So I do that for
[2:49] Speaker 1: a lot of metrics to kind of give us a
[2:51] Speaker 1: better sense of who's actually been good and who's actually
[2:54] Speaker 1: been bad. And fantasy points allowed or some other metric
[2:57] Speaker 1: right like target share. A lot of times there's going
[2:59] Speaker 1: to be overlap, like the raw numbers are going to
[3:02] Speaker 1: look a whole lot like the adjusted numbers. But this
[3:05] Speaker 1: gives you a true raw number when thinking about how
[3:07] Speaker 1: well a team might perform above or below expectation based
[3:10] Speaker 1: on how things have gone during a season. And for
[3:13] Speaker 1: the record, all these numbers they're on the late round
[3:15] Speaker 1: Fantasy Football Patreon. This next question is from that patreon
[3:21] Speaker 1: is from Ball Game four, it says, Hi, JJ, what
[3:23] Speaker 1: are your thoughts on Jaden Reid's role when he returns
[3:26] Speaker 1: and an offense lacking of yards after the catch option
[3:29] Speaker 1: in Tuckercraft's absence. I'm curious if you believe there's a
[3:32] Speaker 1: chance for an increased role despite the wide receiver snapcarousel
[3:36] Speaker 1: we typically see from Green Bay. The schedule looks strong
[3:39] Speaker 1: down the stretch. Thanks for all your thoughtful analysis. Look,
[3:43] Speaker 1: I love Jayden Reid. I've been a truther since he
[3:46] Speaker 1: came out of college. I think he's an awesome player.
[3:49] Speaker 1: But the Packers deploy their wide receivers and deployed Jaden
[3:52] Speaker 1: Reid in particular in a really specific way, which is
[3:55] Speaker 1: via the slot, and that leads to fewer routes run
[3:59] Speaker 1: than the other wider. Just to give you some data
[4:02] Speaker 1: with that. Over the offseason, I did some research on
[4:04] Speaker 1: this type of player and Josh Downs is included in
[4:07] Speaker 1: this mix too. They're wide receivers who look the part,
[4:11] Speaker 1: who have great metrics to back it up, but their
[4:14] Speaker 1: teams refuse to give them bigger roles. They're slot guys.
[4:17] Speaker 1: I wrote a newsletter back in early August that was
[4:20] Speaker 1: titled says Jaden Reid's slot only role matter, And what
[4:24] Speaker 1: I found was that it's pretty rare for players with
[4:26] Speaker 1: lower route participation rates like under eighty percent and then
[4:29] Speaker 1: high slot rates above sixty percent to give a significant
[4:33] Speaker 1: production in fantasy football. In fact, we've only had five seasons,
[4:37] Speaker 1: five instances since twenty eleven where a wide receiver was
[4:40] Speaker 1: within those parameters who then finished as a wide receiver
[4:43] Speaker 1: two or better in Fantasy football in points per game.
[4:46] Speaker 1: And when you look at those successes Victor Cruz in
[4:48] Speaker 1: twenty eleven, Keenan Allen in twenty twenty two, Percy Harvin
[4:52] Speaker 1: in twenty eleven, Randall Cobb in twenty twelve, and Hunter
[4:55] Speaker 1: Renfro in twenty twenty one, four of those players scored
[4:59] Speaker 1: at least eight TOUCHDOW. The only one who didn't was
[5:02] Speaker 1: Keenan Allen, but he only played ten games and he
[5:05] Speaker 1: scored four times in those ten games. Their median target
[5:09] Speaker 1: share was also twenty three percent. That's been really hard
[5:12] Speaker 1: to achieve in this current Packers offense, at least across
[5:17] Speaker 1: a large stretch of games. So I guess what I'm
[5:20] Speaker 1: getting at here is that, yes, hypothetically, Tucker Craft being
[5:23] Speaker 1: out the wide receiver room looking like it does. Yes,
[5:26] Speaker 1: Jaden Reid would be a great asset to have, like
[5:29] Speaker 1: potentially top twenty rest of season, that kind of ceiling
[5:32] Speaker 1: hypothetically speaking, and I do think that he's something that
[5:35] Speaker 1: you can stash right now. I almost had him as
[5:38] Speaker 1: an ad on fifteen transactions earlier this week, and to
[5:41] Speaker 1: be fair to read who again, I think he's very talented.
[5:45] Speaker 1: He has an outlier type of profile. He's been so
[5:48] Speaker 1: efficient per route run to start his career. If there's
[5:51] Speaker 1: someone who can kind of buck this trend, I think
[5:54] Speaker 1: he'd be on the short list. But if we're strictly
[5:56] Speaker 1: looking at this from a probability driven lens, in order
[5:59] Speaker 1: for to be a consistent player across a large stretch,
[6:02] Speaker 1: the Packers need to change up his role period. Maybe
[6:06] Speaker 1: they do that post injury. I just wouldn't bet on that,
[6:09] Speaker 1: and that lowers the type of ceiling that I was
[6:11] Speaker 1: just talking about. But look, we know he's capable of
[6:14] Speaker 1: having spiked weeks and generating big plays. Maybe it all
[6:17] Speaker 1: comes together and he's just super efficient down the stretch
[6:20] Speaker 1: while facing what my numbers say is the third best
[6:22] Speaker 1: wide receiver schedule rest of season. Again, you can add him,
[6:26] Speaker 1: especially in deeper leagues. I'm just pointing out that he
[6:29] Speaker 1: does have a cap ceiling in this offense because of
[6:32] Speaker 1: the way they deploy him, and it's unfortunate because he's
[6:35] Speaker 1: a really awesome player. This last question is from Blue
[6:40] Speaker 1: Skies from at zombie Token. It says which teams have
[6:44] Speaker 1: your favorite rest of season schedules for each fantasy position.
[6:47] Speaker 1: So with a question like this, I'm not gonna give
[6:49] Speaker 1: individual player takes. I'm just gonna share what my numbers
[6:53] Speaker 1: show right now. And this is all available in the
[6:55] Speaker 1: late Round Fantasy Football Patreon. Just go to Lateround dot
[6:58] Speaker 1: com Clickpatreon if you're in interested. I even split up
[7:01] Speaker 1: by playoff weeks if you're interested in that. But this
[7:05] Speaker 1: is pre Thursday Night Football adjusted fantasy points allowed schedules
[7:08] Speaker 1: from weeks eleven through seventeen. None of these are going
[7:12] Speaker 1: to be flawless schedules. Each player is bound to have
[7:15] Speaker 1: a bad matchup or two. But here goes at quarterback
[7:18] Speaker 1: right now, the top three they look like Baltimore, Miami,
[7:21] Speaker 1: and New England. And just to reiterate, this is not
[7:25] Speaker 1: just the fantasy playoffs, this is rest of season. At
[7:28] Speaker 1: running back, we've got New England again, and then a
[7:31] Speaker 1: three way tie between the Browns, Packers, and Steelers at
[7:34] Speaker 1: wide receiver, Cincinnati's number one, Miami's number two, and then
[7:38] Speaker 1: there are a few teams at number three, Detroit, Green Bay,
[7:41] Speaker 1: and Minnesota. And the reason there are ties here is
[7:44] Speaker 1: because I'm looking at a median opponent during this timeframe.
[7:47] Speaker 1: At tight end, it's Indianapolis, and then Baltimore and then
[7:51] Speaker 1: the New York Jets. So there you have it. You
[7:54] Speaker 1: can see all of the details with these adjusted Fantasy
[7:57] Speaker 1: points allowed numbers on Patreon, like I said, which includes
[8:00] Speaker 1: how many points above or below expectation each team allows.
[8:04] Speaker 1: But that's where we're at rest of season. This last
[8:09] Speaker 1: question is from Patreon. It's from Florian. It says, hi,
[8:12] Speaker 1: JJ brock Purdy looks to have a chance to play
[8:15] Speaker 1: this week. How bullish are you with him rest of season?
[8:19] Speaker 1: So at the time this recording, I don't know if
[8:20] Speaker 1: he's enter out this week, but let's talk about brock
[8:22] Speaker 1: perty After sitting down and thinking about this, I think
[8:26] Speaker 1: Perdy is actually a pretty interesting buy right now for
[8:29] Speaker 1: teams looking at the playoffs. We know he can work
[8:32] Speaker 1: in this system. I mean, there's a reason he was
[8:34] Speaker 1: like a low end QB one, high end QB two
[8:36] Speaker 1: in fantasy drafts this year, Ricky Piersoll's getting healthier, George
[8:40] Speaker 1: Kittle is back, Jwan Jennings is starting to look more
[8:43] Speaker 1: like his twenty twenty four self, Christian McCaffrey's active, and
[8:46] Speaker 1: maybe we even see Brandon Ayuk eventually, and then Kyle Shanahan.
[8:50] Speaker 1: This week, he said that when Brock Purdy is back,
[8:52] Speaker 1: he won't have to change his mobility. He said, quote,
[8:55] Speaker 1: I think if you go tell a guy to not
[8:57] Speaker 1: be mobile and to stay out of situations, it's kind
[9:00] Speaker 1: of hard to be successful. And that was really big
[9:04] Speaker 1: for Party last year. He went from one point seven
[9:07] Speaker 1: points per game via rushing in twenty twenty three to
[9:10] Speaker 1: four point two points per game in twenty twenty four.
[9:13] Speaker 1: It gave him a better floor, even with regression coming.
[9:17] Speaker 1: And then you take all that and you layer on
[9:19] Speaker 1: the schedule in the Fantasy football playoffs. Perdy, if he's
[9:23] Speaker 1: back and ready to rock, he'll face the Titans, Colts,
[9:26] Speaker 1: and Bears. The Titans and Bears those games are in
[9:29] Speaker 1: San Francisco. The Colts game is in Indianapolis, but that's
[9:33] Speaker 1: a dome game. Honestly, guys, whether we see Perdy this
[9:37] Speaker 1: weekend or not, it wouldn't surprise me if I'm talking
[9:39] Speaker 1: about him as a buy candidate on next week's fifteen
[9:42] Speaker 1: Transactions show. The last question this week is from at
[9:47] Speaker 1: the curR Life. It says, what's the upside of RJ
[9:50] Speaker 1: Harvey if JK. Dobbins misses time? Do you see him
[9:53] Speaker 1: having league winning upside? With Sean Payton's offense? How similar
[9:57] Speaker 1: of a player is he to Alvin Kamara. So you'll
[10:00] Speaker 1: hear a lot of RJ. Harvey talk on this week's
[10:03] Speaker 1: Perspectives episode, which drops later today, but I thought it
[10:06] Speaker 1: could add some additional commentary right now or give my
[10:09] Speaker 1: specific take before you hear what's said on that episode.
[10:13] Speaker 1: I liked Harvey as a prospect, but not quite as
[10:16] Speaker 1: much as some others, because there were people out there
[10:18] Speaker 1: who were serious, serious truthers. They loved RJ. Harvey. But
[10:23] Speaker 1: he does check some of the boxes that I care
[10:25] Speaker 1: about for fantasy purposes. He's a capable enough pass catcher,
[10:28] Speaker 1: he's got enough size, and he's insanely explosive. Now, I
[10:32] Speaker 1: will say this, I never really understood the Alvin Kamara
[10:35] Speaker 1: comps I talked about that a bit after he was
[10:38] Speaker 1: drafted to Denver. As prospects, they were pretty different, at
[10:42] Speaker 1: least in my opinion, just analytically via the Zap model.
[10:45] Speaker 1: Alvin Kamara entered the league before turning twenty two years old. RJ.
[10:49] Speaker 1: Harvey was past his twenty fourth birthday. Alvin Kamara had
[10:53] Speaker 1: nine pounds on him, and he's a little bit taller.
[10:56] Speaker 1: Harvey has that stockier build and people forget this, but
[10:59] Speaker 1: Kamara didn't have crazy speed. With his forty Harvey ran
[11:03] Speaker 1: a four to four flat, Kamara was at a four
[11:05] Speaker 1: five six. More importantly, most importantly from a production standpoint,
[11:11] Speaker 1: Kamara had a breakout score of ninety two, which is amazing.
[11:14] Speaker 1: It's great. That's based on age adjusted receiving yards per
[11:17] Speaker 1: team pass attempt. Harvey's was about fifty one. And then
[11:21] Speaker 1: Kamara's best season in pro rated reception CHARE was almost
[11:25] Speaker 1: twenty percent. Harvey's was eleven percent. According to my stuff,
[11:30] Speaker 1: Kamara was the better prospect. We could say that in hindsight, sure,
[11:33] Speaker 1: but I'm staring at the Zapp model right now, and
[11:36] Speaker 1: Alvin Kamara has a Zapp score of about ninety three.
[11:39] Speaker 1: Harvey was at eighty four, despite Harvey having slightly better
[11:43] Speaker 1: draft capital, Alvin Kamara was an incredible pass catching prospect.
[11:48] Speaker 1: I don't think Harvey's that. Harvey's just a different type
[11:51] Speaker 1: of player all around, And I don't think we'd be
[11:53] Speaker 1: making this comparison if he wasn't playing for Sean Payton. Now,
[11:57] Speaker 1: with that being said, I don't think he needs to
[11:59] Speaker 1: be out Kamara for us to feel bullish. Dobbins has
[12:03] Speaker 1: been seeing running back rush shares of eighty three percent
[12:05] Speaker 1: and eighty one percent over the last couple of games.
[12:08] Speaker 1: I mean, on the season, his running back rush are
[12:10] Speaker 1: per game right is about seventy five percent. He's seeing
[12:13] Speaker 1: like three quarters of the team's running back rushes. Now,
[12:16] Speaker 1: I think we're gonna see Julil McLoughlin now sprinkled him
[12:19] Speaker 1: with some ground game stuff, and like I said in
[12:21] Speaker 1: the Sleeper Show, you've got Tyler Biday to do some
[12:24] Speaker 1: of that two minute some of that hurry up stuff.
[12:26] Speaker 1: He's gonna keep stealing some routes. But I don't see
[12:30] Speaker 1: why Harvey can't be like a fifty to sixty percent
[12:32] Speaker 1: running back rush air player in this offense, which could
[12:35] Speaker 1: yield like thirteen to fifteen carries on the ground per game,
[12:39] Speaker 1: and then the problem with Dobbins this year was the
[12:40] Speaker 1: pass catching stuff, but that's less of a problem for RJ. Harvey.
[12:45] Speaker 1: So on top of that work on the ground, maybe
[12:47] Speaker 1: he could be like a ten to twelve percent target
[12:49] Speaker 1: share player. So let's just run through this real quick.
[12:52] Speaker 1: Let's widen our parameters here to forty five to sixty
[12:55] Speaker 1: five percent running back rushares and a nine to thirteen
[12:58] Speaker 1: percent target share. We've had twenty five of those types
[13:01] Speaker 1: of outings from running backs this season. RJ. Harvey actually
[13:04] Speaker 1: got there in Week four. When you average out those
[13:07] Speaker 1: players PPR points in those twenty five instances, you get
[13:10] Speaker 1: thirteen point seven PPR points per game, which I think
[13:14] Speaker 1: intuitively that's not a horrible median outcome outlook for RJ. Harvey,
[13:18] Speaker 1: and then you can kind of work off of that
[13:20] Speaker 1: for the upside of more work for him being really
[13:22] Speaker 1: efficient if those types of things really come together. The
[13:26] Speaker 1: only downside is they get the Chiefs this week and
[13:29] Speaker 1: then the Packers a little bit later in the season
[13:31] Speaker 1: with the Chiefs again coming on Christmas, and that just
[13:34] Speaker 1: depends on how long JK. Dobbins is going to be
[13:36] Speaker 1: out for but it doesn't seem like a short term
[13:39] Speaker 1: injury right now for JK. Dobbins. And there are some
[13:42] Speaker 1: good matchups in there too against the Commanders and Raiders
[13:45] Speaker 1: after this Chiefs game. So yeah, look, I wouldn't expect
[13:48] Speaker 1: like a full blown bellcow type role. I don't think
[13:51] Speaker 1: he's gonna see that kind of production, but I think
[13:54] Speaker 1: fourteen PPR points per game is well within reach and
[13:57] Speaker 1: there's upside with that type of outlook too. That's it
[14:01] Speaker 1: for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening.
[14:03] Speaker 1: If you get subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast,
[14:05] Speaker 1: make sure you are bestwarching for it pretty much anywhere
[14:08] Speaker 1: podcasts can be found, and follow me on Twitter and
[14:10] Speaker 1: on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Later today you
[14:14] Speaker 1: get another episode of Late Round Perspectives. I'm excited for
[14:17] Speaker 1: you guys to hear that one, and then also at
[14:19] Speaker 1: one pm Eastern on the YouTube channel that's YouTube dot
[14:21] Speaker 1: com slash at LATEROUNDFF, I'll be live with David Kitchen
[14:25] Speaker 1: to do the Late Round Fantasy Football Show. If you
[14:28] Speaker 1: can't watch that on YouTube, if you can't join us,
[14:30] Speaker 1: it will drop in this podcast feed tomorrow morning. Thanks
[14:34] Speaker 1: for listening everyone, Good luck and Week eleven. I'll catch
[14:37] Speaker 1: you next week.

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