# Becoming a Best Ball Bro: Leaning Into Injury Risk?

An episode of [The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1224965828), 19 Aug 2026, 56 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0a233618-d694-4c81-a139-b34e00f98fb1/756158ee-204a-4f4b-b8f4-b4ab00039688/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=5747cc82-33a9-497c-8353-b34e00f98fbe

JJ and Rich discuss the Jordyn Tyson injury and other strategy topics before Chad Candles joins the show. Chad and JJ then dig into how to sort through preseason hype, the importance of closing line value, game-stacking strategy, a top-30 wide receiver to fade, and much more. ---------- All DraftKings Customers enter a lineup into the Best Ball $20 million Headliner Contest and receive a bonus ticket for a 2nd entry! Download the DraftKings app and sign up using https://bit.ly/LateRound2026 or promo code LATEROUND! The Crown is Yours! Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Help is available for problem gambling. Call (888) 789-7777 or visit ccpg.org (CT). 18+ in most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply. Void where prohibited. 1 per customer. Must enter a lineup into the NFL Best Ball $20M Headliner Contest. $25 entry fee. Bonus issued as 1 ticket to NFL Best Ball $20M Headliner Contest. Ticket reward is site credit valid for use only on NFL Best Ball $20M Headliner Contest. Ticket reward is single-use and expires at contest lock on 9/9/26. See terms at https://www.draftkings.com/promotions. Ends 9/9/26 at contest lock. Sponsored by DraftKings. #DKPartner See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:01] Speaker 1: First it was Ricky Pearson done for the year. Then
[0:04] Speaker 1: it was Luther Burden with a groin injury. Then it
[0:06] Speaker 1: was a Mecca Buca with a toe injury. Makai Lemon
[0:08] Speaker 1: hasn't practice in the weeks, Jeremiah Love as a high
[0:11] Speaker 1: angle sprain, Breise Hall's banged up, Jordan Tyson's out for
[0:14] Speaker 1: a couple months with his.
[0:15] Speaker 2: Hammy that he can't get right.
[0:16] Speaker 1: But hey, Rich, Hey, at least we got some good
[0:18] Speaker 1: CLV with Keenan Allen. I'm JJ and over the last
[0:22] Speaker 1: couple of years, I've been doing everything I can to
[0:24] Speaker 1: be a best ball bro.
[0:25] Speaker 2: And last season things finally fell into place. I got
[0:29] Speaker 2: fortieth in the.
[0:29] Speaker 1: DraftKings MILLI Contest, taking home twenty thousand dollars. Maybe I
[0:34] Speaker 1: became a best ball bro, but I'm still looking to
[0:36] Speaker 1: learn more about this game and i still want others
[0:39] Speaker 1: to come on.
[0:40] Speaker 2: This ride with me.
[0:41] Speaker 1: So even if you consider me a best ball bro,
[0:43] Speaker 1: this could be your year. This could be the year
[0:46] Speaker 1: that you officially become a best ball bro.
[1:05] Speaker 2: This episode is sponsored by DraftKings.
[1:07] Speaker 1: We partner up with DraftKings again this year for Best
[1:09] Speaker 1: Ball and We've got to can't miss offer on their
[1:11] Speaker 1: biggest Best Ball contest ever, twenty million dollars in total prizes.
[1:16] Speaker 1: It's Draft one, get one, draft your team once, no
[1:19] Speaker 1: weekly lineup management, and your top scorers start automatically each
[1:23] Speaker 1: week all season long. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app
[1:27] Speaker 1: and sign up with promo code Late Round. Enter a
[1:30] Speaker 1: lineup in the twenty million dollars Best Ball Contest for
[1:32] Speaker 1: twenty five dollars and get a bonus ticket for a
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[1:37] Speaker 2: Draft one Get one only on DraftKings. The crown is yours.
[1:45] Speaker 1: Welcome into another episode of becoming a Best Ball bro.
[1:48] Speaker 1: I'm Jajo Zachar Eason, joined as always by Rich Ryan Rich.
[1:52] Speaker 2: What's going on, buddy, JJ?
[1:54] Speaker 3: My wife and I were sitting down last night watching
[1:57] Speaker 3: some Netflix watching four seasons. Shouts to Steve Kurah, everything
[2:00] Speaker 3: that show, everything that guy touches is gold. And I
[2:04] Speaker 3: get the notification that Keenan Allen has signed with the
[2:09] Speaker 3: Indian Aflos Cults and I fist pumped so hard. Jen's like,
[2:12] Speaker 3: what are you so excited about him? Like, my guy,
[2:13] Speaker 3: JJ had a rough one that I'm glad he ended
[2:16] Speaker 3: it with a dumb I needed I.
[2:18] Speaker 1: Needed something to happen favorably, because man, it feels like
[2:23] Speaker 1: every especially wide receiver that I've talked about in the
[2:26] Speaker 1: draft guide that I've been drafting a decent amount of
[2:28] Speaker 1: has gotten hurt at some point. You know, now we
[2:31] Speaker 1: have this lingering toe with a mecha Buka. The big
[2:34] Speaker 1: thing though, was Jordan Tyson. I actually, you know, I
[2:36] Speaker 1: was looking my best ball. I'm overweight on Jordan Tyson,
[2:39] Speaker 1: but it's not as much as it could have been
[2:40] Speaker 1: because I'm pretty high on him just as a player,
[2:43] Speaker 1: as a prospect, all of that, and yeah, I mean, like,
[2:46] Speaker 1: let's just talk about that right now, because I think
[2:48] Speaker 1: it's the big news with best Ball at the moment,
[2:52] Speaker 1: I think that Jordan Tyson is still draftable, you know.
[2:54] Speaker 1: I know a lot of people are gonna just take
[2:56] Speaker 1: them off their board because of the injury. And look,
[2:59] Speaker 1: of course, we knew that this injury thing was a
[3:02] Speaker 1: thing with Jordan Tyson, you know, I wrote about in
[3:04] Speaker 1: the Prospect guyed it was a reason why I had
[3:06] Speaker 1: him in the same tier as Carnell Tait. Otherwise, there
[3:08] Speaker 1: are no issues at all. He was technically a better
[3:12] Speaker 1: prospect in my eyes, like he would have been a
[3:14] Speaker 1: tier above and you know, camp over the last few weeks.
[3:18] Speaker 1: I know it's just camp, but my gosh, the hype
[3:20] Speaker 1: with Jordan Tyson was really there. Nick Underhill is one
[3:23] Speaker 1: of the best beat writers in the country, let alone
[3:26] Speaker 1: the best for the Saints, and he was saying that
[3:29] Speaker 1: Jordan Tyson at some point this season had a very
[3:32] Speaker 1: real chance to be the best player on the Saints roster.
[3:36] Speaker 1: He's not one to just say things like that. He's
[3:38] Speaker 1: a very you know, a thoughtful beat reporter. And it
[3:42] Speaker 1: just goes to show how well Jordan Tyson was performing.
[3:45] Speaker 1: And so I felt good about the talent evaluation part.
[3:48] Speaker 1: The obvious part that was, you know, the issue with
[3:50] Speaker 1: Jordan Tyson as a prospect, and the issue right now
[3:53] Speaker 1: is that he's gotten hurt. Now, I will say I
[3:55] Speaker 1: think that, like the broken collarbone that he had is
[3:58] Speaker 1: just not a deal that I think has anything to
[4:01] Speaker 1: do with this at all. Maybe you could say that
[4:03] Speaker 1: the acl that he suffered a few years ago could be,
[4:07] Speaker 1: you know, a part of this and why this hamstring
[4:10] Speaker 1: thing has seemed to be lingering because he suffered the
[4:13] Speaker 1: hamstring last year, he dealt with it during the draft
[4:16] Speaker 1: process and then Obviously they're saying that this is disconnected,
[4:19] Speaker 1: this has nothing to do with you know, any of that.
[4:22] Speaker 1: I think that's probably bs. I mean it's it's you know,
[4:24] Speaker 1: your body all functions as one. It's not like you
[4:26] Speaker 1: have these independent muscles, do you know, that don't touch
[4:29] Speaker 1: each other. But that being said, and for the record,
[4:31] Speaker 1: I'm also parroting what smart people like Jeff Mueller on Twitter,
[4:35] Speaker 1: you know, a pt.
[4:36] Speaker 2: Is saying about this.
[4:38] Speaker 1: With that being said, I do have the general stance
[4:42] Speaker 1: that players are injury prone until they're not. And you know,
[4:45] Speaker 1: we do this all the time with players, and it's
[4:48] Speaker 1: very hard when football is not being played and there's
[4:51] Speaker 1: not as many like storylines going on and such to
[4:54] Speaker 1: not dive all into this one storyline and like overinflate
[4:58] Speaker 1: it in a way within your mind. But I'm trying
[5:00] Speaker 1: to not do that. Obviously, I have priors. I think
[5:03] Speaker 1: Jordan Tyson is a phenomenal prospect, right, so you know,
[5:06] Speaker 1: take this with a grain of salt. I still think
[5:08] Speaker 1: he's draftable because what if he does get it right?
[5:10] Speaker 1: I drafted Jordan Tyson last night in one of the
[5:13] Speaker 1: one hundred dollars. I finally got that to fill because
[5:16] Speaker 1: they have a three entry one hundred dollars tournament, and
[5:19] Speaker 1: I got my third entry in and I got Jordan
[5:21] Speaker 1: Tyson in the one forties last night, which to me
[5:25] Speaker 1: is certainly the best the right kind of risk reward
[5:28] Speaker 1: when I went pretty wide receiver heavy early and so
[5:31] Speaker 1: I knew that, you know, they could have coverage early
[5:33] Speaker 1: in the season while Tyson's out, and then the question
[5:36] Speaker 1: is like, what if he gets right. You know, this
[5:37] Speaker 1: is not a It could end up being a zero
[5:39] Speaker 1: for sure, but so could a lot of players in
[5:41] Speaker 1: that range in general. So I don't want to, you know,
[5:44] Speaker 1: overstate what that really means. But the way I kind
[5:47] Speaker 1: of see it right now, you know, I really like
[5:49] Speaker 1: Casey Conceptsion.
[5:50] Speaker 2: I liked him a lot as a prospect.
[5:52] Speaker 1: I thought Conceptsion was in the same tier as Mackay
[5:54] Speaker 1: Lemon when they came out, when a lot of people
[5:56] Speaker 1: had you know, Lemon sort of a tier above. I
[5:58] Speaker 1: think Conceptcion's a really good player. You know, Tyson should
[6:01] Speaker 1: still be drafted behind him, probably in that like you
[6:04] Speaker 1: know after that, like Cocher, Romeo Dobbs, Jayden Higgins apparently
[6:08] Speaker 1: is banged up. We just learned that right before we
[6:10] Speaker 1: hit play here so or record here, so understand that
[6:14] Speaker 1: that could be changing. But right after that tier, I
[6:16] Speaker 1: think is where Jordan Tyson kind of belongs. So you know,
[6:20] Speaker 1: it's a it's a risk tolerance thing. You got to
[6:22] Speaker 1: do what you feel most comfortable doing. Now, look, I
[6:25] Speaker 1: mean the season starts later this year, so this could
[6:28] Speaker 1: be like he could be playing as soon as week
[6:31] Speaker 1: four or five. Realistically, I don't think that's going to happen.
[6:34] Speaker 1: I think they slow play it, and you know, I'm
[6:37] Speaker 1: hoping they can figure this out the way that you know.
[6:40] Speaker 1: I mean, another good example of this idea of players
[6:43] Speaker 1: or injury prone until they're not is Christian Watson, where
[6:46] Speaker 1: it seems like no one's really talking about his hamstring
[6:49] Speaker 1: stuff simply because he had a second half of last
[6:52] Speaker 1: year that was brilliantly good and he didn't get hurt
[6:55] Speaker 1: and now no one's really talking about this. But that's
[6:57] Speaker 1: what I'm saying, Like this kind of thing can shift
[6:59] Speaker 1: in an instant. I'm not just missing it at all.
[7:00] Speaker 1: I think it's a very real thing. I'm just trying
[7:02] Speaker 1: to be level headed or as level headed as I
[7:05] Speaker 1: can be, and to me, I think in that like
[7:07] Speaker 1: I mean, if you can get him in the one forties,
[7:08] Speaker 1: that's great, but you know, after that, like group of
[7:11] Speaker 1: wide receivers in the best ball environment, go for it.
[7:13] Speaker 1: I think in a season long environment, I know there's
[7:15] Speaker 1: a best ball show, but in a season long environment,
[7:17] Speaker 1: you can even go a little bit earlier because obviously
[7:19] Speaker 1: you're not taking zeros and you can drop the guy
[7:22] Speaker 1: if you want to and pick up someone else or
[7:24] Speaker 1: better yet, if you have an IR spot, you can
[7:26] Speaker 1: just stash yep. So you know, it's it's really bad
[7:28] Speaker 1: news for Tyson, it's bad news for anyone who probably
[7:31] Speaker 1: listens to my content. You know, this is a risk
[7:33] Speaker 1: that we took on, and it's something that you know,
[7:36] Speaker 1: came to fruition. I just hope and pray that, you know,
[7:40] Speaker 1: the end of the season, we look back and Jordan
[7:42] Speaker 1: Tyson is still a beast of a wide receiver and
[7:44] Speaker 1: he's really productive in the Saints offense, which I think
[7:46] Speaker 1: he was going to be really productive in the Saints offense.
[7:49] Speaker 2: But this is the way it goes.
[7:49] Speaker 1: Sometimes the fantasy football, you take risks. Sometimes they work out,
[7:53] Speaker 1: sometimes they don't. Let's hope they work out more than
[7:55] Speaker 1: they don't.
[7:56] Speaker 3: That range that you've identified does feel right. The next
[7:59] Speaker 3: receiver go off the board is for Shid Shaheed at
[8:02] Speaker 3: the top middle of the twelfth round. I still think
[8:04] Speaker 3: that's kind of coin flippy. I think you and I
[8:05] Speaker 3: are both interested in Shiheed. He's one of your higher
[8:09] Speaker 3: exposed players. But then you're talking about Denzel Boston, Jalen Naylor,
[8:13] Speaker 3: Malik Washington, Jalen Millers.
[8:15] Speaker 1: The zero chance I'm taking Jalen Naylor over Jordan Tyson,
[8:18] Speaker 1: you know, like I just there, or even like malikue Washington,
[8:21] Speaker 1: there's just not those just aren't the guys that I'm
[8:24] Speaker 1: going to get that excited about. I also think again,
[8:27] Speaker 1: like you should be looking at what your build looks
[8:30] Speaker 1: like earlier on. I think that I could I could
[8:32] Speaker 1: actually talk about something that I wanted to talk about
[8:35] Speaker 1: on today's show, which is, like, you know, thinking about
[8:38] Speaker 1: what the early season means and how different the landscape
[8:42] Speaker 1: looks in the early parts of the fantasy season versus
[8:44] Speaker 1: what it's going to look like in the fantasy playoffs
[8:47] Speaker 1: or you know, week ten, week eleven. Keep in mind
[8:49] Speaker 1: that if Tyson's out the first five or six weeks,
[8:52] Speaker 1: and of course he could come back and get hurt
[8:54] Speaker 1: and you know, things can still go on. I'm not
[8:56] Speaker 1: saying that like he comes back and then he's never
[8:58] Speaker 1: gonna get hurt again. That would be crazy. But the
[9:01] Speaker 1: nice part is is when these guys have injuries that
[9:04] Speaker 1: are bumping up into the season. You know, we have
[9:06] Speaker 1: a lot of guys like a Mecha Buca, Luther Burden,
[9:09] Speaker 1: I mean, Breist Hall just got banged up and it doesn't
[9:10] Speaker 1: sound that bad. Those guys are have timelines that are
[9:13] Speaker 1: like pushing right up into week one, right and a
[9:17] Speaker 1: Kenyan Sidiq's another one where seems like he's getting better,
[9:20] Speaker 1: but and they're saying that he's gonna be available week one.
[9:23] Speaker 2: Who knows what ends up happening there.
[9:25] Speaker 1: But the thing that I think that best ball manager
[9:28] Speaker 1: should keep in mind, at least what I've been telling myself,
[9:31] Speaker 1: and this is through you know, talking to people over
[9:33] Speaker 1: the last couple of years and kind of learning this
[9:34] Speaker 1: game a little bit more.
[9:35] Speaker 2: It makes a ton of sense too.
[9:37] Speaker 1: It's that in the early parts of the season, there's
[9:39] Speaker 1: no bye weeks and everyone's healthy.
[9:42] Speaker 4: Right.
[9:42] Speaker 1: So again, I told you about that team that I
[9:44] Speaker 1: drafted yesterday where I got Jordan Tyson you know, in
[9:47] Speaker 1: the one forties, I think I had Carnel Tait as
[9:50] Speaker 1: my wide receiver five or something like. It was a
[9:52] Speaker 1: wide receiver heavy room, and so that I went with
[9:55] Speaker 1: or maybe four, and then I got another wide receiver
[9:57] Speaker 1: in the middle rounds, but regardless, it was a good
[10:00] Speaker 1: wide receiver room. Like I'm in Ross Saint Brown's on it,
[10:02] Speaker 1: DeVante Smith's on it. I think I got a wide
[10:04] Speaker 1: out in round four. And so I sat there and
[10:07] Speaker 1: I said, Okay, I can take on Jordan Tyson a
[10:09] Speaker 1: lot more easily right now, because I might not even
[10:11] Speaker 1: he might not have even found my lineup the.
[10:13] Speaker 2: First five or six weeks of the season, you know.
[10:15] Speaker 1: And then it's not until players break down by weeks
[10:19] Speaker 1: start happening that you really need to to think about
[10:22] Speaker 1: that and worry about that more. I think in general two,
[10:25] Speaker 1: I'm in this place where I'm trying to not be
[10:28] Speaker 1: so hyper focused on these players that are banged up
[10:33] Speaker 1: right now. Like I know, there's the mantra of like
[10:35] Speaker 1: you don't want to draft injured guys. Everyone's gonna get
[10:38] Speaker 1: hurt at some point or has the risk of getting hurt.
[10:40] Speaker 1: You don't want to start, you know, and at like
[10:42] Speaker 1: like being delayed or start from behind with some of
[10:45] Speaker 1: those players into the fantasy season, but you're getting discounts,
[10:49] Speaker 1: man Like, there's a big difference between those guys staying
[10:52] Speaker 1: at the exact same price and those guys not, which
[10:55] Speaker 1: is exactly why I am mega overweight right now.
[10:58] Speaker 2: Rich, I'm like Kenyan Sadik for ins since right where
[11:01] Speaker 2: he go.
[11:02] Speaker 1: I've gotten him in like round eighteen at times, right
[11:05] Speaker 1: like in literal dart throw territory. We're going to be
[11:08] Speaker 1: shocked when we look back at this season because it
[11:10] Speaker 1: happens every single year and you look at the players
[11:12] Speaker 1: we were drafting in round eighteen and the amount of
[11:15] Speaker 1: zeros that are littered through our lineup from those players
[11:18] Speaker 1: because they're just not doing anything. Maybe they give you one,
[11:21] Speaker 1: you know, usable week. I have a hard time envisioning
[11:24] Speaker 1: a world where Kenyan Sadiq doesn't give you at least
[11:27] Speaker 1: like two or three usable weeks this year, you know,
[11:30] Speaker 1: as long as he's healthy to some degree, and I
[11:31] Speaker 1: know that's the big question mark. But you're getting him
[11:34] Speaker 1: at such a discount in comparison to the other players
[11:36] Speaker 1: being drafted in that area, So like, you know, I
[11:38] Speaker 1: think it's a little bit different when you're talking about
[11:40] Speaker 1: same tier players, Like I haven't really been touching a
[11:43] Speaker 1: Mecca Buka as much. I have enough of him, and
[11:46] Speaker 1: I don't want to, you know, I'll gladly just take
[11:48] Speaker 1: Zay Flowers over him, or you know, or DeVante Smith
[11:50] Speaker 1: or even Jalen Waddle. I think you can go with
[11:52] Speaker 1: even though he's a little bit banged up and he
[11:54] Speaker 1: seems healthier than where a Buka's at. But with late
[11:57] Speaker 1: round guys especially, it's a lot easier to just take
[11:59] Speaker 1: that on. So, like I remember last year, a good
[12:01] Speaker 1: example of this is Devon a Chan was really banged
[12:03] Speaker 1: up or seemingly right. He had that like calf injury
[12:07] Speaker 1: or something like that, and I had not drafted much
[12:10] Speaker 1: Ali Gordon throughout the summer. I was on the Jalen
[12:13] Speaker 1: Wright train like into July, and then I just stopped
[12:16] Speaker 1: drafting back up running backs from Miami.
[12:18] Speaker 2: I had a lot of Devon.
[12:19] Speaker 1: Ah Chan last year, but then the Achan injuries happening
[12:24] Speaker 1: and it's lingering, and I'm like, oh man, I got
[12:26] Speaker 1: to overcorrect and just draft all this Alli Gordon without
[12:28] Speaker 1: really thinking about, like what is the true Bowl case
[12:31] Speaker 1: for Ali Gordon, right, and then in hindsight, of course
[12:33] Speaker 1: it was a terrible pick. Like all of those rosters
[12:35] Speaker 1: I had with him, you know, were not as as strong.
[12:38] Speaker 1: And I can say that a lot more confidently right now,
[12:40] Speaker 1: given how like the last year's season was good, Right,
[12:43] Speaker 1: it's a little bit more difficult whenever you have a
[12:45] Speaker 1: bad season, then you made those stupid mistakes. But you know,
[12:48] Speaker 1: I'm trying to not overthink that aspect of things, because
[12:53] Speaker 1: generally it's actually not as bad I think anecdotally as
[12:57] Speaker 1: people make it seem. And again, I mean, best ball
[13:01] Speaker 1: is a playoff game, right, Like you're trying to advance,
[13:04] Speaker 1: of course, but there's other players that can help you advance,
[13:06] Speaker 1: and you want to have good talent and just monster
[13:09] Speaker 1: monster teams as you get into the playoffs.
[13:11] Speaker 5: Yeah, caution is okay.
[13:13] Speaker 3: The other example from last year that I remember is
[13:15] Speaker 3: Matthew Stafford and the back injury and the question marks
[13:18] Speaker 3: that we had around not just Stafford himself, but the
[13:21] Speaker 3: Rams pass catchers as well, where there was some sort
[13:24] Speaker 3: of discount baked in there because we just didn't know
[13:26] Speaker 3: the status of Matthew Stafford and the Rams are just
[13:28] Speaker 3: being extra careful with an older player. I've said this
[13:31] Speaker 3: before Jet specifically. My information is that they're just slow
[13:35] Speaker 3: playing all of these injuries. Helmet on today. Yeah, Yeah,
[13:40] Speaker 3: it's just what's the point, especially with soft tissue leg injuries.
[13:45] Speaker 3: What's the point of having these guys sprint and run
[13:47] Speaker 3: around in August when we have an eighteen week violent
[13:52] Speaker 3: gauntlet that is coming to us in a couple of weeks.
[13:57] Speaker 3: So yeah, and again the Pierce one, where teams are
[13:59] Speaker 3: get having you a timeline and those timelines aren't being met,
[14:02] Speaker 3: that's when we should sound the alarm and.
[14:04] Speaker 5: Ring the bell.
[14:05] Speaker 1: And like Jordan Tyson is a sound the alarm situation,
[14:08] Speaker 1: Like Jordan Tyson is a very scary situation where he's
[14:11] Speaker 1: got he's had this bad hammy and it just keeps
[14:14] Speaker 1: popping up. Alec Pierce is a very scary situation where
[14:17] Speaker 1: he hasn't been practicing. You see clips of him like
[14:20] Speaker 1: still limping a little bit. And then the team goes
[14:22] Speaker 1: out and signs Keenan Allen. I mean, like could it
[14:24] Speaker 1: work out?
[14:25] Speaker 2: Sure? You know, are there some drafts where I might
[14:28] Speaker 2: get them?
[14:29] Speaker 1: Maybe, but you have to have a pretty big discount
[14:31] Speaker 1: because that there are more obvious signals and signs that
[14:34] Speaker 1: it's going in that direction, and then there's some teams
[14:37] Speaker 1: like Todd Bowles is one of the worst when it
[14:39] Speaker 1: comes to injury stuff and trying to figure out where
[14:42] Speaker 1: things are at there. With that being said, I think
[14:45] Speaker 1: it's pretty clear now that we know it's a turf
[14:47] Speaker 1: toe thing for a Buka, and that's something that can linger.
[14:50] Speaker 2: A little bit.
[14:50] Speaker 1: I wrote about that in the Draft guide last week,
[14:52] Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, overall, I'm trying to take a
[14:56] Speaker 1: case by case but understanding that you know, teams are
[14:58] Speaker 1: going to slow play things. I think they did that
[15:00] Speaker 1: with like Devon a Chan last year, for instance. But
[15:02] Speaker 1: when there's like a very clear indication, I think Pearce
[15:05] Speaker 1: and Tyson are the two that are most obvious here.
[15:08] Speaker 1: When there's a very clear indication, that's when we should
[15:11] Speaker 1: be really adjusting our priors a little bit and thinking
[15:13] Speaker 1: about these players a little bit different. All Right, I'm
[15:15] Speaker 1: going to get into a couple of other things. I've
[15:17] Speaker 1: found that late round picks right now are becoming pretty
[15:21] Speaker 1: difficult to navigate.
[15:22] Speaker 2: Now.
[15:22] Speaker 1: I've been sort of like auto clicking Keenan Allen so
[15:25] Speaker 1: much that that's why that was a really nice, you know,
[15:29] Speaker 1: end of my day of him at least finding a team.
[15:31] Speaker 2: I'm not even expecting Keenan Allen to dominate, but I.
[15:34] Speaker 1: Mean, the dude is seeing good, good target shairs in
[15:36] Speaker 1: his past couple of spots, you know, amongst like relatively
[15:39] Speaker 1: decent competition overall in Chicago and then with the Chargers,
[15:43] Speaker 1: and now I would argue competition is weaker overall. I mean,
[15:46] Speaker 1: Tyler Warren should get his Josh Dowens I'm still excited about,
[15:50] Speaker 1: but overall, you know, clicking Keenan Allen in round nineteen
[15:53] Speaker 1: over and over again, I think is a w overall.
[15:56] Speaker 1: But you know, Cyrus Allen, Caleb Douglass, Pat Bryant, those
[16:00] Speaker 1: players have risen up draft boards quite a bit, and
[16:04] Speaker 1: it's just difficult to really have a ton of conviction
[16:07] Speaker 1: about round eighteen, round nineteen, round twenty players. And I
[16:11] Speaker 1: think that if you're feeling that, I just wanted to
[16:13] Speaker 1: shout that out, that you're not alone in feeling that.
[16:15] Speaker 1: Have you experienced that too as you're drafting in the
[16:17] Speaker 1: very late rounds?
[16:18] Speaker 3: Yeah, I was gonna say, I feel like I'm pivoting
[16:21] Speaker 3: back to some of my early summer ideology of when
[16:24] Speaker 3: in doubt in these later rounds, just leave a spot
[16:27] Speaker 3: open for tight end and just click guys that we
[16:30] Speaker 3: know the twelve revolution and the heavy formation meta. We
[16:34] Speaker 3: know that's a thing in the NFL. Now we have
[16:36] Speaker 3: Darren Waller even signing with Carolina, who becomes a reasonable
[16:39] Speaker 3: enough dart towards the ends of drafts. So yeah, I'm
[16:42] Speaker 3: just leaving room for some tight ends at the back
[16:45] Speaker 3: end of my roster. And that's just a very comfortable
[16:48] Speaker 3: click for me, for guys that are just going to
[16:49] Speaker 3: be on the field and scoring points.
[16:51] Speaker 2: Yeah, agreed.
[16:52] Speaker 1: And like even like Michael Mayer types will still go
[16:54] Speaker 1: in the twentieth round. And I think he's going to
[16:57] Speaker 1: have some musable weeks and then he obviously has contingent upside.
[16:59] Speaker 1: If brock Bowers, please please please don't but if brock
[17:03] Speaker 1: Bauers were to get hurt this year.
[17:05] Speaker 5: The tape was off today. The tape was off today,
[17:08] Speaker 5: like put.
[17:08] Speaker 1: Duct tape on and then everything got better. You know,
[17:10] Speaker 1: that was the with his with his PCL. But yeah,
[17:13] Speaker 1: I agree. I think that the tight end stuff is
[17:15] Speaker 1: very relevant and real that you know, you don't want
[17:17] Speaker 1: to necessarily like reach on. I've had a really hard
[17:19] Speaker 1: time draft without a stack, drafting a player like Hunter
[17:23] Speaker 1: Henry you know where I'm like, I know I can
[17:26] Speaker 1: wait at tight end. I don't think he's going to
[17:28] Speaker 1: be a difference maker necessarily, and if it's not in
[17:30] Speaker 1: a stack, I'd rather just wait.
[17:33] Speaker 2: You know, I can't say the same.
[17:34] Speaker 1: I'm still drafting Terrence Ferguson in round fifteen, even though
[17:37] Speaker 1: he's gotten steamed up a little bit. The two tight
[17:39] Speaker 1: ends that I'm going to have the most exposure to
[17:41] Speaker 1: more than likely are Terrence for definitely Terrence Ferguson, and
[17:43] Speaker 1: then probably Sadik, like I was saying before, just because
[17:46] Speaker 1: his price keeps falling and tumbling. But I'm trying to
[17:50] Speaker 1: not overthink this of a mid first round uber athlete
[17:55] Speaker 1: tight end who's very young, incredibly young, had pretty tough competition,
[17:59] Speaker 1: and coege and his age adjusted production profile was at
[18:03] Speaker 1: the very least slightly above average, but I think it
[18:06] Speaker 1: was just above average in general, right in a tight
[18:09] Speaker 1: end friendly offense too. Frank Reik's offense has been historically
[18:12] Speaker 1: really tight end friendly. I'm just trying to not overthink that.
[18:15] Speaker 1: So I'm still going after those like sexy names in
[18:19] Speaker 1: the later rounds of drafts a tight end, because I
[18:21] Speaker 1: think that that's just what you should be doing a
[18:23] Speaker 1: tight end year in and year out. For the most part,
[18:26] Speaker 1: depends on your roster bill depends on that construction. But
[18:28] Speaker 1: it's been the direction I go. And I think you
[18:29] Speaker 1: can still take four. I mean we've said that sort
[18:32] Speaker 1: of all off season.
[18:33] Speaker 3: Even the guy like Tanjas has the contingent upside of
[18:36] Speaker 3: an older tight end coming off of major injury, and
[18:39] Speaker 3: again a tight end friendly offense, like you said, like
[18:41] Speaker 3: he's a very reasonable click in those late doubles.
[18:43] Speaker 2: I mean, I've drafted four tight end builds.
[18:45] Speaker 1: I've gotten Eli Reridan as a last round pick, you know,
[18:48] Speaker 1: and going that route. I love the Michael Mayer pick,
[18:50] Speaker 1: though I still think Michael Mayer is just like, like
[18:52] Speaker 1: he should probably.
[18:53] Speaker 2: Be going a round or two earlier than he is.
[18:55] Speaker 1: I know it's the late rounds, not the biggest deal
[18:56] Speaker 1: in the world, But the overall theme here is that
[18:59] Speaker 1: the later round pick are becoming a little bit more
[19:01] Speaker 1: difficult because you know, on one hand, the market's reacting properly,
[19:05] Speaker 1: and that's looking at you know, beat writer notes and
[19:08] Speaker 1: what they're saying out of camp. And they're saying, oh,
[19:10] Speaker 1: I'll just draft this guy one or two rounds earlier,
[19:12] Speaker 1: because why not it's the late rounds. But then also
[19:14] Speaker 1: we're getting more clarity, right like we like now officially,
[19:18] Speaker 1: not that I mean I did all summer to be
[19:20] Speaker 1: to be fair, but we like Pat Bryant more than
[19:23] Speaker 1: Troy Franklin. There's going to probably be a bigger role
[19:25] Speaker 1: for Bryant versus Franklin, which makes tons of sense because
[19:28] Speaker 1: Bryant can be a very good slot player for them
[19:32] Speaker 1: and he can play out of eleven personnel. That was
[19:34] Speaker 1: kind of the logic ast of why I had him,
[19:37] Speaker 1: you know, ranked ahead earlier this summer and was drafting him.
[19:40] Speaker 1: But you know, he's crushing it in camp. I didn't
[19:42] Speaker 1: expect him to crush in camp the way that they're
[19:43] Speaker 1: talking about him. But you know, that's that's separated those players.
[19:46] Speaker 1: There's been players that are separating Caleb Douglas separating from
[19:50] Speaker 1: some of the rest of the pack. Although Chris Bell
[19:52] Speaker 1: is apparently healthier than we all expected.
[19:54] Speaker 3: So it just made Dolphins offensive line look sneaky.
[20:00] Speaker 1: Yeah, the Dolphins offensive line is not that that bad.
[20:03] Speaker 1: The fear, the fear for me with like an a
[20:05] Speaker 1: chan is still just the pass catching stuff and what
[20:08] Speaker 1: that's going to look like, you know in this offense. Yeah,
[20:10] Speaker 1: I mean Willis Willis I've said, I mean Malik Willis
[20:15] Speaker 1: to me is especially season long, the easiest click on
[20:17] Speaker 1: the board period right in Best Ball. I kind of
[20:21] Speaker 1: get the but I'm still draft I'm still just drafting
[20:23] Speaker 1: him in a lot of you know, especially three quarterback builds.
[20:25] Speaker 2: Yeah, that's like the perfect QB three. I'm with you.
[20:28] Speaker 2: I think that that Miami can be decent enough.
[20:31] Speaker 1: And then the other thing that I wanted to talk about,
[20:33] Speaker 1: all of these injuries are making Round six just suck,
[20:39] Speaker 1: and I think it's a really good thing for what
[20:42] Speaker 1: that means for back half of round one picks, because
[20:46] Speaker 1: when you get into the late fifth and early sixth,
[20:48] Speaker 1: some of those guys will will tail into the early
[20:51] Speaker 1: sixth round, and so you get before a big tier drop,
[20:54] Speaker 1: you get that sixth player that the front half of
[20:57] Speaker 1: the draft won't be able to get.
[20:59] Speaker 2: Right.
[20:59] Speaker 1: That's pretty important because like the getting Jremior Gibbs, which
[21:03] Speaker 1: I won't complain about draft slots too much on this
[21:05] Speaker 1: show because I know it is truly random, But is
[21:07] Speaker 1: it truly random for JJ zachar Reeson. I'm not sure
[21:10] Speaker 1: after you know, I'm doing like I'm like one hundred
[21:12] Speaker 1: and thirty millis in and I have like six Jumior Gibbs.
[21:17] Speaker 1: I got like six one oh ones. I got a
[21:19] Speaker 1: little bit more Junior Gibbs just because I've gotten him
[21:21] Speaker 1: at one o two sometimes, But regardless, having that advantage,
[21:25] Speaker 1: especially at the two three turn where now my league
[21:27] Speaker 1: neighbors is there and you feel better about him, and
[21:29] Speaker 1: I think it's a nice advantage for, you know, to
[21:32] Speaker 1: to even things out a little bit more for the
[21:34] Speaker 1: back half of round one. I felt very lucky today.
[21:37] Speaker 1: I was in the one oh four in a Millie
[21:40] Speaker 1: and Carnel Tait what I got him in the sixth.
[21:42] Speaker 1: It seems like I'm really high in Carneal Tate. I
[21:44] Speaker 1: think I'm actually underweight on Carnel Tait. I'm it's just
[21:47] Speaker 1: you know, he's just popped up a couple of times
[21:49] Speaker 1: in the last couple of drafts.
[21:50] Speaker 2: But he fell, I say fell.
[21:52] Speaker 1: But I got him in this in the sixth like
[21:54] Speaker 1: towards the end of the sixth, and then I somehow
[21:56] Speaker 1: got Ramandre Stevenson in the seventh which to me is
[21:59] Speaker 1: just not going to happen as frequently anymore, not just
[22:02] Speaker 1: because of the way that backfield is trended, but also
[22:05] Speaker 1: just because of the way that injuries have piled up
[22:08] Speaker 1: and all of those guys are just being pushed up. Right,
[22:10] Speaker 1: the back half of the seventh round is I could
[22:12] Speaker 1: argue that the back half of the eighth round is
[22:15] Speaker 1: better and more appetizing than the back half of the
[22:18] Speaker 1: seventh round right now in ADP.
[22:20] Speaker 2: So, I mean, it really really drops off.
[22:23] Speaker 1: And if you're experiencing that, if you're feeling that, you're
[22:26] Speaker 1: I think you're thinking logically about this.
[22:28] Speaker 3: So when I saw you put sixth round on the sheet,
[22:30] Speaker 3: I wanted to bring up two guys. One was fromnjer Stevenson,
[22:33] Speaker 3: the other is Jonathan Brooks. And it feels like the
[22:35] Speaker 3: populace is pulling them into the sixth round because let's
[22:40] Speaker 3: say they're not going Burrow or Drake May and they're
[22:42] Speaker 3: not happy with that tear drop at receiver after like
[22:46] Speaker 3: Watson the Dnesday, they're like, well, what are we going
[22:48] Speaker 3: to do? And what they're doing is brook Brooks. Every week,
[22:52] Speaker 3: Brooks stays healthy and looks good like he's I mean,
[22:55] Speaker 3: he's up forty picks since we started doing the podcast.
[22:58] Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm to the point now in Best Ball where
[23:01] Speaker 1: I think the gap between Brooks and Hubbard is too big.
[23:04] Speaker 1: Hubbard's another one of those guys that we could have
[23:05] Speaker 1: talked about earlier that you know, his injuries kind of
[23:08] Speaker 1: going bumping up into week one and maybe at Ker
[23:10] Speaker 1: And look, I'm I'm very pro Jonathan Brooks. I was drafted, Like,
[23:14] Speaker 1: my bags are packed with Jonathan Brooks, trust me. But
[23:17] Speaker 1: I'm trying to think logically, like you're not taking on
[23:19] Speaker 1: a pretty much more significant opportunity. Cause I think the
[23:22] Speaker 1: only reason why Brooks is being drafted where he's being drafted,
[23:25] Speaker 1: to your point, is because there is this big drop
[23:28] Speaker 1: off people and people, sure, I'll take Jonathan Brooks.
[23:33] Speaker 2: Why not? So Like, from that perspective, I can't really
[23:35] Speaker 2: blame people.
[23:36] Speaker 1: But when you look at a draft board and you're like,
[23:39] Speaker 1: whoa Jonathan Brooks is like a late sixth round pick
[23:41] Speaker 1: right now, and like that's where he's going pretty frequently,
[23:44] Speaker 1: I mean it's it's objectively pretty rich.
[23:46] Speaker 2: You know. I can say that comfortably because I have
[23:49] Speaker 2: so much ninth and tenth.
[23:50] Speaker 5: Round, tenth round to other right, that's way different than
[23:54] Speaker 5: right right.
[23:54] Speaker 1: So like, I don't need to force the issue. I
[23:56] Speaker 1: think that if you need to, though, you can do it. Still,
[23:59] Speaker 1: because of that drop off that we were talking about,
[24:01] Speaker 1: I'd still be drafting a Remandre over him, you know,
[24:04] Speaker 1: I'd still want that safety. But if you like, if
[24:06] Speaker 1: you go pretty running back heavy and he's like your
[24:08] Speaker 1: RB three or four, I don't think it's the end
[24:09] Speaker 1: of the world and you're you're going for that upside.
[24:11] Speaker 2: If he's the guy, he's the guy you know that
[24:13] Speaker 2: you need. But again, like there are drafts.
[24:16] Speaker 1: I never envisioned myself being into Chewba Hubbard this year
[24:19] Speaker 1: because I had Jonathan Brooks and him basically back to
[24:22] Speaker 1: back during the summer, and you know there's a much
[24:25] Speaker 1: wider gap and ADP at that point. But now it's
[24:28] Speaker 1: you know, awarded me to get some Chewba Hubbard. But again,
[24:31] Speaker 1: if you haven't gotten Brooks, this isn't me being like, hey,
[24:34] Speaker 1: look at my Brooks bags. This is me saying like,
[24:37] Speaker 1: if you haven't gotten Jonathan Brooks, I don't think it's
[24:40] Speaker 1: like egregious to be drafting him there because there's so
[24:44] Speaker 1: much ambiguity in that range. I mean, I still think
[24:46] Speaker 1: going quarterback, going Remandre, going Jalen Warren.
[24:49] Speaker 2: That's probably better. But I get it. I can understand
[24:52] Speaker 2: the logic there.
[24:53] Speaker 3: I mean, the name just still screaming at me in
[24:55] Speaker 3: this area as Jalen Hurts. Jalen Hurts is down three picks.
[24:58] Speaker 2: So I know I got him in the I got him.
[25:00] Speaker 1: I've got him in the late seventh pretty frequently, you know,
[25:04] Speaker 1: like he's it's it's pretty wild to me, especially you know,
[25:07] Speaker 1: if you look at his his numbers last year, they
[25:10] Speaker 1: didn't use a much undesigned runs like he had like
[25:12] Speaker 1: forty fewer design runs last year, and they're already talking
[25:15] Speaker 1: about how they want to up that this year.
[25:17] Speaker 2: You know, there's already been reports about that too. So yeah,
[25:20] Speaker 2: I mean.
[25:20] Speaker 3: All his pieces not named DeVante Smith you can backstack with. Yeah,
[25:24] Speaker 3: you can gamble on Makay Lemon like.
[25:26] Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you can get don Tavian Dantavian Wicks
[25:29] Speaker 1: is really I mean that's another guy who's been rising,
[25:31] Speaker 1: Dontavian Wick. So I'm still I've still clicked because again,
[25:35] Speaker 1: just kind of like a dead zone of players.
[25:37] Speaker 2: Once you get into round fourteen to twenty you know.
[25:40] Speaker 3: It's still it's still in the one fifties for Dontavian Wicks. So,
[25:43] Speaker 3: like you said, it's not like right, it's not the cost.
[25:45] Speaker 3: I think he's going to be used too. Yeah, all right,
[25:47] Speaker 3: let's get to our guest today. I talked to Chad Candles.
[25:50] Speaker 3: He's a YouTube streamer on his channel at Chad Candles.
[25:52] Speaker 3: This is one of the great things about becoming a
[25:54] Speaker 3: Best Ball bro is kind of getting introduced to the
[25:57] Speaker 3: best ball community a little bit more and meeting people
[25:59] Speaker 3: that probably wouldn't have met if I were only doing
[26:02] Speaker 3: you know, season long content or dynasty content or what
[26:04] Speaker 3: have you.
[26:05] Speaker 2: And this conversation was awesome. Chad's super sharp.
[26:07] Speaker 1: We talked about preseason hype, how to handle those injuries
[26:10] Speaker 1: with the weird timelines like we were just talking about.
[26:13] Speaker 1: Talked more about closing line value, some CLV talk like
[26:15] Speaker 1: I did with Sam Sherman last week game stacking, how
[26:19] Speaker 1: he kind of approaches the week seventeen stuff, so much more.
[26:22] Speaker 1: It was a great conversation, great back and forth. So
[26:24] Speaker 1: without further ado, here is that interview with Chad Camps. So, Chad,
[26:45] Speaker 1: we get a lot of like crazy hype from Beat
[26:47] Speaker 1: reporters this time of year, as you know, everyone's in
[26:50] Speaker 1: the best shape of their life. Everyone's crushing it in camp.
[26:53] Speaker 1: But you know, I asked this last week, and I
[26:54] Speaker 1: think it's just an important thing to talk about and discuss,
[26:57] Speaker 1: like how do you manage what Beat reporters are saying
[27:01] Speaker 1: and what's coming out of these camps in order to
[27:04] Speaker 1: not get like too overconfident in players that could be zeros,
[27:07] Speaker 1: Because look, there's a lot of like Day three wide
[27:09] Speaker 1: receivers right now that are getting a ton of love,
[27:11] Speaker 1: and we know statistically a lot of Day three wide
[27:13] Speaker 1: receivers won't do anything, So how do you kind of
[27:15] Speaker 1: balance that?
[27:16] Speaker 4: Yeah, again, I listen to Sherman's answer to this, and
[27:20] Speaker 4: it's hard to come up with much different. And these
[27:21] Speaker 4: Beat reporters get like way hyped into things that, as
[27:26] Speaker 4: you know, best ball players and drafters were not as
[27:29] Speaker 4: excited about. And usually it's like big contested catches like
[27:32] Speaker 4: that looks really cool, and the Beat reporters get really
[27:34] Speaker 4: excited about it, and you get that self fulfilling like
[27:37] Speaker 4: the players that are getting hype in the algorithm are
[27:40] Speaker 4: who the Beat reporters are going to write about. Because
[27:42] Speaker 4: it promotes it and you end up in just just
[27:43] Speaker 4: like vortex of specific players. The more actionable stuff is
[27:48] Speaker 4: who's running with who, you know, the sort of snap counts,
[27:51] Speaker 4: that kind of thing. But again, just like players looking
[27:54] Speaker 4: good to beat reporters, I mean, they're all going to
[27:56] Speaker 4: look awesome, like you said, like in shorts and without pads,
[28:00] Speaker 4: like this is the time of the year for all that. Yeah, again,
[28:03] Speaker 4: just try to like focus on the stuff that seems
[28:05] Speaker 4: a little more actionable than just the hype machine.
[28:08] Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's interesting too.
[28:09] Speaker 1: Like I remember when I was prospecting some of these
[28:11] Speaker 1: Day three guys, like you know, like a Caleb Douglas
[28:13] Speaker 1: was definitely someone that could just get downfield and he
[28:16] Speaker 1: has that ability and I'm not.
[28:17] Speaker 2: Surprised that, like he would look good.
[28:19] Speaker 1: But I think one of the more interesting guys is
[28:21] Speaker 1: like Jacobe Lane right now, who's just getting tons and
[28:23] Speaker 1: tons of steam. And obviously there's like kind of an
[28:25] Speaker 1: opening in Baltimore and I get all of that, But
[28:28] Speaker 1: if you go back and you watch him in college,
[28:30] Speaker 1: THEZ model was like pretty lukewarm on him, Like we
[28:32] Speaker 1: didn't say he's a smash, didn't like necessarily hate him
[28:34] Speaker 1: or anything.
[28:35] Speaker 2: Like that, you know, he's hit an early declare profile.
[28:37] Speaker 1: The one thing was that like Lane always had these
[28:40] Speaker 1: like acrobatic catches, like like one of the best.
[28:43] Speaker 2: At doing that in this class.
[28:45] Speaker 1: And so to your point, like that's the perfect kind
[28:47] Speaker 1: of I'm not saying he's gonna be zero this year.
[28:49] Speaker 1: I think he's gonna get some run, but you know,
[28:51] Speaker 1: I'm trying to not like take it too far based
[28:53] Speaker 1: on what they're saying out of camp. And then obviously
[28:55] Speaker 1: he does what he does in the preseason, finds the
[28:57] Speaker 1: end zone, and you know, he's just getting steamed up
[28:59] Speaker 1: every more. So yeah, it's a hard thing to balance,
[29:02] Speaker 1: but I do think that, you know, it's a lot
[29:04] Speaker 1: easier for these like beat reporters to say these things
[29:07] Speaker 1: without it actually having as big of a deal from
[29:09] Speaker 1: a fantasy football perspective, you know, in total.
[29:12] Speaker 4: The Lane stuff, I'm like, I'm a little more into
[29:14] Speaker 4: because again, I Chase tes Walker that didn't work out.
[29:18] Speaker 4: We're all in the hunt for something better than Bateman,
[29:20] Speaker 4: like base gone, and the fact that he does seem
[29:23] Speaker 4: like he's drawing more praise than Sarat feels like maybe
[29:25] Speaker 4: there's finally something to this.
[29:27] Speaker 6: I don't know they took two receivers.
[29:29] Speaker 4: I don't know how committed they are to Bateman ending
[29:32] Speaker 4: the year as wide receiver two. So I've been buying
[29:34] Speaker 4: the lane stuff and with Caleb Douglas, I like that.
[29:37] Speaker 4: I'm a Dolphins fan. Yeah, it seems like the Douglas
[29:40] Speaker 4: thing is is kind of real. Although Chris Bell just
[29:42] Speaker 4: got activated, which is like way faster than Yeah, a
[29:47] Speaker 4: little bit there, but yeah, those two examples, I'm I'm
[29:50] Speaker 4: buying the hype. So maybe I'm ignoring my own advice
[29:53] Speaker 4: here a little bit. No.
[29:54] Speaker 1: But but the thing is, though, is that it all
[29:56] Speaker 1: comes down to cost too in the end. And to me,
[29:58] Speaker 1: I don't think that they're getting so out of hand
[29:59] Speaker 1: for a cost perspective that you're taking on some insane opportunity.
[30:03] Speaker 2: Cost and drafting them right.
[30:05] Speaker 1: It's more so like I'm trying to not you know,
[30:08] Speaker 1: get them in every draft or go like that route,
[30:10] Speaker 1: you know what I mean by bye, by just kind
[30:12] Speaker 1: of buying into the steam.
[30:14] Speaker 2: So it's a good call out though.
[30:16] Speaker 1: We're getting a lot of injuries right now too, even
[30:18] Speaker 1: before we started recording this earlier this morning. Now this
[30:20] Speaker 1: will be out on Wednesday, so we're gonna know a
[30:22] Speaker 1: lot more. But like even Breis Hall has an apparent
[30:25] Speaker 1: groin injury, and a lot of these returns put these
[30:28] Speaker 1: guys like at week one, you know, there's just players
[30:31] Speaker 1: that like seemingly their timelines are just like at week one.
[30:35] Speaker 2: We don't know what to do.
[30:35] Speaker 1: So I guess my question for you from a best
[30:37] Speaker 1: ball perspective. You know, obviously, in season long, you can
[30:40] Speaker 1: play someone else on your bench and there's no by
[30:42] Speaker 1: weeks going on, so it's a little bit easier, or
[30:44] Speaker 1: you know you can you can you know, manipulate your
[30:46] Speaker 1: lineup if you do miss on that player.
[30:48] Speaker 2: But in best ball it's a little bit different.
[30:49] Speaker 1: You know, you're taking on these guys and you can't
[30:51] Speaker 1: use the waiver wire to do anything to make up
[30:53] Speaker 1: for someone who is hurt and not playing. So my
[30:57] Speaker 1: question to you is are you generally leaning into those
[31:00] Speaker 1: falling values with those injured players or do you avoid
[31:04] Speaker 1: them completely or do you just take a case by case.
[31:08] Speaker 4: I've sort of lived by the axiom like risers don't
[31:11] Speaker 4: rise enough, follers don't fall enough, and maybe that's more
[31:14] Speaker 4: performance than injury, but I feel like it's still true
[31:17] Speaker 4: at least some of the time. I think for the
[31:20] Speaker 4: injured players, I'm a lot more worried if it's someone
[31:22] Speaker 4: who is in like a training camp fight, or you know,
[31:26] Speaker 4: a rookie who we think might come along later, because
[31:29] Speaker 4: that could really delay things. Lemon is the big example
[31:31] Speaker 4: for me. I now have like a lot of concern
[31:34] Speaker 4: with Mackay Lemon. Is he, you know, going to be
[31:37] Speaker 4: ready week one? It sounds like probably not at this point.
[31:40] Speaker 4: I'm not entirely sure if they're humming along, if Wicks
[31:44] Speaker 4: is playing well, if they're in the playoff hunt, like,
[31:46] Speaker 4: are they really going to ramp him up as fast
[31:48] Speaker 4: as we want?
[31:50] Speaker 2: I don't know.
[31:50] Speaker 4: It just seems like getting out of the gate slow
[31:52] Speaker 4: for some of these guys on these competitive teams. The
[31:54] Speaker 4: younger guys might be tough, the players who have more
[31:57] Speaker 4: of a mode around them. I'm not worried the sort
[31:59] Speaker 4: of like met Calf and Downs. If I can get
[32:01] Speaker 4: a little bit of I should met Keff and Pittman.
[32:03] Speaker 4: I think both of them are not practicing. If I
[32:05] Speaker 4: can get a dip on them, I'm not really worried.
[32:07] Speaker 6: They're not.
[32:08] Speaker 4: They don't have any competition breathing down their neck. They're
[32:10] Speaker 4: going to be fine. So I think for the veterans
[32:13] Speaker 4: I'm a little less concerned about. For the younger players,
[32:16] Speaker 4: I'm going to be a lot more cautious.
[32:18] Speaker 1: Yeah, makes a lot of sense. I've had a really
[32:20] Speaker 1: hard time clicking Lemon for for the same reasons. And
[32:23] Speaker 1: I mean, what could go wrong with a lot of
[32:25] Speaker 1: Dontavian Wicks?
[32:26] Speaker 2: Right?
[32:26] Speaker 1: Like, what could possibly go wrong with my best ball
[32:29] Speaker 1: season with like sixteen percent don Tavian Wicks?
[32:32] Speaker 2: Right?
[32:32] Speaker 4: It feels like one of those you look at a
[32:33] Speaker 4: lineup that's like made the playoffs and you're like, oh,
[32:36] Speaker 4: oh is one.
[32:38] Speaker 1: Percent one hundred percent? You get a team that advances
[32:41] Speaker 1: and you're like, oh, yeah, this is Oh my gosh,
[32:43] Speaker 1: why did I draft on Tavian Wicks?
[32:44] Speaker 2: Why did I do that? Yeah?
[32:46] Speaker 1: Another question I have and this is one that I
[32:47] Speaker 1: talked with Sam last week about, But I think it's
[32:50] Speaker 1: you know, really important to the point about injuries and
[32:53] Speaker 1: getting those falling values, but also injuries that we assumed,
[32:56] Speaker 1: like a Molik Neighbors.
[32:58] Speaker 2: Closing line value. Some people make a big deal out
[33:00] Speaker 2: of it.
[33:00] Speaker 1: I've kind of had this take where I've I made
[33:03] Speaker 1: a big deal out of it last year I feel
[33:04] Speaker 1: like I'm making a loss of a deal about it
[33:06] Speaker 1: this year. But if you drafted like a lot of
[33:08] Speaker 1: Stepan Digs, right, let's say that you're at like fourteen
[33:11] Speaker 1: or fifteen percent Stepan Digs and your way ahead of
[33:14] Speaker 1: the market, and you got him at a really reduced
[33:16] Speaker 1: price compared to where he's going now. Or Jonathan Brooks
[33:19] Speaker 1: obviously because the chewbe behover just another one of those
[33:21] Speaker 1: injuries that's you know, going right up against that week
[33:23] Speaker 1: one timeframe. Are you done drafting those players because you
[33:27] Speaker 1: know that you captured that CLV and you know that
[33:29] Speaker 1: those lineups are going to have at least some advantage
[33:32] Speaker 1: with those guys, or do you continue drafting them even
[33:35] Speaker 1: though they are at an increased price.
[33:38] Speaker 4: I'm definitely going to still be taking those players who
[33:41] Speaker 4: have been risers.
[33:42] Speaker 5: At the end.
[33:43] Speaker 4: I will just have different combinations with those players for
[33:45] Speaker 4: the same reason. I'm not going to avoid players who
[33:48] Speaker 4: have risen that I was kind of out on. I
[33:50] Speaker 4: only had four and a half percent Digs. I thought
[33:52] Speaker 4: I had like eight to ten percent, and I'm like, well,
[33:55] Speaker 4: I'm not gonna not take him like I have to
[33:57] Speaker 4: take him now. I'm just gonna have to hope that
[34:00] Speaker 4: you know, whatever round eight pick is better than the
[34:03] Speaker 4: round ten you know what I'm saying, Like the different
[34:05] Speaker 4: like variations you get with the players, I don't want
[34:08] Speaker 4: to just say, like, oh well, I like if I
[34:10] Speaker 4: still like the player, I don't want to now start
[34:12] Speaker 4: fading a player who's been a riser. Again, going back
[34:14] Speaker 4: to something I do believe is that risers don't rise enough,
[34:17] Speaker 4: followers don't fall enough. I think I'm just going to
[34:20] Speaker 4: get different players and again, at the end of the day,
[34:22] Speaker 4: you know, you make these finals, you know BBM for example,
[34:26] Speaker 4: I'm still only going to be playing six hundred sixty
[34:29] Speaker 4: whatever people. I'm not. I'm not running a giant GPP
[34:32] Speaker 4: where I'm worried that I have some kind of like
[34:34] Speaker 4: huge disadvantage of the combination. So if it's a player
[34:38] Speaker 4: you need, I feel like it's a player you need,
[34:40] Speaker 4: I'm not going to start fading them.
[34:41] Speaker 1: Yeah, That's kind of where I've come around to. It's like,
[34:44] Speaker 1: is there an advantage, sure, But at the same time,
[34:47] Speaker 1: the way that these playoffs are structured, in the way
[34:50] Speaker 1: that this all works, it's you know, like Molique Neighbors
[34:52] Speaker 1: going in round late round two as opposed to early
[34:54] Speaker 1: round four or something like that, Like, of course we
[34:57] Speaker 1: would all rather have Laque Neighbors in round four, but
[35:00] Speaker 1: number one, if he's the guy that you need, then
[35:02] Speaker 1: that doesn't really matter because you're getting in you're in
[35:04] Speaker 1: number two. You're getting different combinations, as you noted, and
[35:08] Speaker 1: those combinations are you know, guys, I mean, we have
[35:11] Speaker 1: no idea how that's going to just fall into place, right,
[35:14] Speaker 1: Like the team that drafted Molik Neighbors in some of
[35:16] Speaker 1: your drafts in round four or got a crazy discount
[35:19] Speaker 1: on him if you if you felt around five or
[35:22] Speaker 1: something like that, how do.
[35:23] Speaker 2: We know that the rest of their team isn't littered
[35:25] Speaker 2: with injured.
[35:25] Speaker 6: Players or never keep your soult like you know, right
[35:29] Speaker 6: right right, there are.
[35:30] Speaker 1: Just so many iterations to it where you know, I
[35:33] Speaker 1: try not to like overthink that part. That's one thing
[35:36] Speaker 1: that I feel like I've learned talking to people like
[35:37] Speaker 1: you too, is like I just feel like it's overthinking
[35:40] Speaker 1: it a little bit by just ignoring a player who
[35:44] Speaker 1: you know you're doubling down on, Like if you're doubling
[35:46] Speaker 1: down on Elikue Neighbors like that, that's just a very
[35:49] Speaker 1: risky thing to do because it's molik neighbors.
[35:52] Speaker 5: Yep.
[35:52] Speaker 4: And I did this last year. I was like out
[35:55] Speaker 4: on Rushie Rice. I was like, no, I don't really
[35:57] Speaker 4: like him. I was worried about this. I'm a lawyer
[35:58] Speaker 4: by trade. I should have known thing ever happens. And
[36:01] Speaker 4: nothing happened, and I got bailed out by him getting hurt.
[36:04] Speaker 4: I was absolutely wrong. The fade was bad, but like
[36:07] Speaker 4: I could have had like a really really you know,
[36:10] Speaker 4: disastrous fade on the guy just because I was stubborn
[36:12] Speaker 4: about not wanting to take him like around and a
[36:14] Speaker 4: half ahead of where you could have gotten him.
[36:16] Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, you know.
[36:17] Speaker 1: This also kind of like leads into the conversation of
[36:20] Speaker 1: like unique combinations are you somebody who and this isn't
[36:23] Speaker 1: on you know, I sent you a show sheet beforehand
[36:25] Speaker 1: just to kind of go over what we generally talk about,
[36:27] Speaker 1: But like, are you a unique combos guy, Like you're
[36:30] Speaker 1: in the beginning of you're at the one two turn
[36:32] Speaker 1: and you just take like a late second guy like
[36:35] Speaker 1: a Nico or something like that because you'll help fall
[36:37] Speaker 1: to that side of the board.
[36:38] Speaker 4: Then I'm not a huge unique combos bro, maybe more
[36:42] Speaker 4: so in the daily games. I'm more interested in that
[36:47] Speaker 4: most of so many of the fantasy relevant players and
[36:50] Speaker 4: you know Best Ball and eighteen round draft are getting drafted,
[36:52] Speaker 4: whereas in like the six person six round drafts, you
[36:56] Speaker 4: really can get a pretty big edge by going like
[36:58] Speaker 4: a little off script. I'll do it sometimes if I
[37:02] Speaker 4: want a particular player in combo that I like. But
[37:05] Speaker 4: my problem is is, like you know, one hundred you
[37:08] Speaker 4: get one hundred and fifty bullets in these large contests.
[37:10] Speaker 6: You know there's twelve draft slots.
[37:13] Speaker 4: Is the one time I do that, pull up this
[37:15] Speaker 4: player the one time it's going to advance and like
[37:17] Speaker 4: get to a fight, like.
[37:17] Speaker 6: You you run into this like really narrow.
[37:20] Speaker 4: Path where and then it has to get to the
[37:22] Speaker 4: final that I get to one every eight years is
[37:24] Speaker 4: like this weird combo and then like I don't know it.
[37:27] Speaker 4: I'll do it sometimes, but it won't be for the
[37:29] Speaker 4: purpose of getting unique. It'll just be because like, well,
[37:32] Speaker 4: I actually think these two players are are good, and.
[37:35] Speaker 1: Yeah, like it's it's it's just the optimal thing to
[37:38] Speaker 1: do in the optimal choice. Like it's not it's not suboptimal,
[37:41] Speaker 1: I should say, especially the most off but like today
[37:43] Speaker 1: For instance, I did a billy today and I was
[37:46] Speaker 1: at the in the eleven spot, I took Kenneth Walker
[37:48] Speaker 1: and Chase Brown right and the like. To me, it's
[37:51] Speaker 1: all kind of one giantier and by At the same time,
[37:54] Speaker 1: I would I would almost guarantee you that there's fewer
[37:56] Speaker 1: of that combo, just simply because most first rounders. You know,
[38:00] Speaker 1: both of them are technically second rounders nadib. But I
[38:02] Speaker 1: don't really see a big difference between like Kenneth Walker
[38:04] Speaker 1: and Saquon Barkley, Like there's just no reason for me
[38:06] Speaker 1: to like force that issues. That's really the only time
[38:09] Speaker 1: that I would I would really push that. I also,
[38:11] Speaker 1: I know that we're kind of going on a tangent here,
[38:13] Speaker 1: but like I do think that this plays into what
[38:17] Speaker 1: we were talking about earlier with some of these overhyped
[38:19] Speaker 1: rookies to a degree where one thing that I'm trying
[38:22] Speaker 1: and I'm wondering if you think about this at all,
[38:24] Speaker 1: or if like this is top of mind for you,
[38:26] Speaker 1: But like you know, Cyrus Allen getting the love that
[38:29] Speaker 1: he's getting, and obviously there's still a low probability chance
[38:32] Speaker 1: of this like really really works out or Jacobe Lane
[38:35] Speaker 1: or Caleb Douglass whatever. Right, But with that being said,
[38:39] Speaker 1: with these contests like the Millie that's been going on
[38:42] Speaker 1: since May, a lot of those guys just weren't drafted
[38:44] Speaker 1: at all for the first couple of months of best
[38:47] Speaker 1: Ball season, and so by drafting them now, even if
[38:50] Speaker 1: you're only at like three to five percent, you're probably
[38:53] Speaker 1: gonna end up being above market to a degree, maybe
[38:56] Speaker 1: five percent or so, just because no one was drafting
[38:59] Speaker 1: them earlier.
[39:00] Speaker 4: Right, Yeah, yeah, I think that. I think that makes
[39:03] Speaker 4: a lot of sense there. And I've been Cyrus Allen
[39:06] Speaker 4: is a tough one for me because I've been stubborn.
[39:08] Speaker 4: But he's still only like a sixteenth round pick, and
[39:10] Speaker 4: there's so many bad picks there, like right, just like no,
[39:14] Speaker 4: it never works, like you'll never get the late round
[39:16] Speaker 4: Chiefs receiver never pans out, and I just like list
[39:18] Speaker 4: all the bad ones and it's like, what if this works?
[39:23] Speaker 2: Yeah, this is the one. I mean.
[39:25] Speaker 1: I went into this this prospect season and after the
[39:27] Speaker 1: draft where I was like, and I said this on
[39:29] Speaker 1: so many podcasts. I was like, guys, this wide receiver
[39:32] Speaker 1: class is going to be the Wild West, Like this
[39:34] Speaker 1: is the day two picks especially like I liked the
[39:38] Speaker 1: top four, you know in Tyson and Carnel Tate and
[39:41] Speaker 1: Makayle Lemon and Casey Concepcion. But after that, I was like,
[39:45] Speaker 1: put him in in a hat and just draw randomly.
[39:47] Speaker 2: You know.
[39:48] Speaker 1: My tears were really big, and we were going to
[39:50] Speaker 1: see someone emerge out of nowhere just because of the
[39:54] Speaker 1: volume of Day two wide receivers we had.
[39:56] Speaker 2: But it's it's it was tough to figure out.
[39:58] Speaker 1: I mean, we might not see any, but I think
[40:00] Speaker 1: we're we're on the verge of you know, the stribblings,
[40:02] Speaker 1: the the uh, you know, the Caleb Douglas. Maybe for
[40:05] Speaker 1: your for your Dolphins, we'll see, we'll see it, but
[40:07] Speaker 1: I think we're on the verge of seeing one of them.
[40:10] Speaker 4: We were so unsettled on who was actually going to
[40:12] Speaker 4: be a good pick in this sort of weaker class.
[40:15] Speaker 4: But then we're all like, no, there's no possible way
[40:18] Speaker 4: that you know this that this player we weren't in
[40:20] Speaker 4: on is better than.
[40:22] Speaker 1: Right right exactly, Like it's silly to me to like
[40:28] Speaker 1: latch on to priors that like I'm not if I
[40:31] Speaker 1: were to redo a rookie draft right now, I still
[40:33] Speaker 1: would not be drafting DESI stribbling over Casey Concepcion, over
[40:36] Speaker 1: Mackay Lemon, you know whatever, But I have no I
[40:39] Speaker 1: think I had him at wide receiver eight to ten
[40:42] Speaker 1: post draft stribling, I would have no problem putting him
[40:44] Speaker 1: at like wide receiver five right now. I think that's
[40:47] Speaker 1: a very valid thing to do, just based on the
[40:49] Speaker 1: inf Like we get more information and it.
[40:51] Speaker 2: Was seriously just chaos, you know, after the Big Four.
[40:54] Speaker 1: In my opinion, some people might like, Ohmark Cooper, some
[40:56] Speaker 1: people might like Denzel Boston.
[40:58] Speaker 2: Whatever. I get it.
[40:59] Speaker 1: I get it, but like it seems not egregious at
[41:02] Speaker 1: all to just react to something that's just flat in nature,
[41:05] Speaker 1: you know. Yeah, let's look at game stacking, so something
[41:09] Speaker 1: that a lot of people always have questions about. To you,
[41:12] Speaker 1: how important is game stacking? Like, are you trying to
[41:15] Speaker 1: get at least one playoff game Slash Week seventeen bring
[41:19] Speaker 1: back for every stack you complete or do you feel
[41:21] Speaker 1: like when you do that you often become a little
[41:23] Speaker 1: bit more suboptimal with your choices?
[41:26] Speaker 6: Yeah, you know what.
[41:27] Speaker 4: You sent me the show sheet, and I was thinking
[41:30] Speaker 4: about this one a lot, and the answer is yes,
[41:33] Speaker 4: I want to be stacking these Week seventeen games because
[41:37] Speaker 4: at the end of the day, that's where all the
[41:38] Speaker 4: money is in these bestball contests, like we need to
[41:40] Speaker 4: win Week seventeen. But the problem is is even if
[41:46] Speaker 4: you know which games go off, it's very hard to
[41:49] Speaker 4: like pick a the right pieces from it, and b
[41:54] Speaker 4: you know, you pair together players at a higher rate.
[41:57] Speaker 4: They're completely uncorrelated for the entire season until you get
[42:01] Speaker 4: to that Week seventeen game. So what I don't like
[42:05] Speaker 4: to do is constantly pair the same like late brown
[42:10] Speaker 4: player with the same early round player. Like I don't
[42:13] Speaker 4: always want to be taking say Greg Dulsic on my
[42:17] Speaker 4: Josh Allen teams because I'm like, Okay, this is the
[42:19] Speaker 4: Week seventeen bringback, because then it's going to be just
[42:21] Speaker 4: like those two are going to be overrepresented together. But
[42:25] Speaker 4: I do want to be thinking about Week seventeen stacks.
[42:28] Speaker 4: But I worry that there's this like mantra, like, oh,
[42:30] Speaker 4: I'm going to break the tie to the Week seventeen game,
[42:32] Speaker 4: and then you end up just like pairing two completely
[42:35] Speaker 4: uncorrelated players together a lot, but by the same token
[42:40] Speaker 4: I Week seventeen, like Sherman's BBM team, he had he
[42:44] Speaker 4: had Purty and across from that he had Caleb or
[42:47] Speaker 4: shouldn't he had Luther Burden and that was like, you
[42:50] Speaker 4: know what he needed to win the contest. Right, So
[42:54] Speaker 4: it's obviously super important, but it's really hard to figure
[42:58] Speaker 4: out like who in a given game is who you
[43:00] Speaker 4: need and you know, are you constructing suboptimally Like you said,
[43:04] Speaker 4: I'm just like breaking the tie to a week seventeen
[43:07] Speaker 4: stack that otherwise doesn't matter the rest of the year.
[43:09] Speaker 1: Yeah, this is one of those things for me where
[43:11] Speaker 1: it's like completely anecdotal where I had, you know, I
[43:14] Speaker 1: got I had a top fifty million team last year
[43:16] Speaker 1: and it was correlated and it had that the same stack,
[43:19] Speaker 1: same San Francisco Chicago stack, not Burden, but you know,
[43:22] Speaker 1: had that game stacked and you go through it and
[43:25] Speaker 1: you're like, Okay, I get why we're doing that.
[43:28] Speaker 2: But again, it's like once you're there, yeah, once you're
[43:31] Speaker 2: in it.
[43:32] Speaker 1: And so that's the big question, right, Like you don't
[43:34] Speaker 1: you don't want to just force the issue necessarily because
[43:36] Speaker 1: you've got to get there. But I do like the
[43:38] Speaker 1: point of not of making sure that you're not just
[43:40] Speaker 1: getting like the same combos.
[43:41] Speaker 2: Over and over again. I think it's really really important.
[43:43] Speaker 1: Yeah, when we look back on the season, this is
[43:46] Speaker 1: another one that everyone's been been talking about in terms of,
[43:50] Speaker 1: you know, the optimal strategy to take, especially with people
[43:53] Speaker 1: going a little.
[43:53] Speaker 2: Bit more robust RB this year.
[43:55] Speaker 1: But like, when we look back, what do you think
[43:58] Speaker 1: we will say was the optimal strategy? Was it robust RB,
[44:01] Speaker 1: zero RB, no strategy at all?
[44:04] Speaker 2: How do you feel about it?
[44:05] Speaker 4: So what my answer is in what I'm doing or
[44:07] Speaker 4: two different things, which is not great. I think I
[44:11] Speaker 4: think this zero RB is going to work, but I
[44:14] Speaker 4: lack the courage to do it enough. Yeah, it's very
[44:17] Speaker 4: hard to properly do it. So robust RB feels really safe,
[44:20] Speaker 4: and if everyone stays healthy, I think zero RB excuse me,
[44:23] Speaker 4: I'm robust RB will be the best. I mean, running
[44:26] Speaker 4: backs are the most protectable, they score the most touchdowns,
[44:28] Speaker 4: et cetera. We just haven't had that high profile running
[44:33] Speaker 4: back injury or injuries where there has been a clear
[44:35] Speaker 4: backup to step in and.
[44:37] Speaker 6: Absorb the role.
[44:39] Speaker 4: And in retrospect, if Jonathan Taylor goes down, it's going
[44:43] Speaker 4: to be very clear, Oh, you should have been taking
[44:46] Speaker 4: McGowan or Giddins like if those guys smash. The problem
[44:49] Speaker 4: is is there's twelve running backs we're taking in the
[44:53] Speaker 4: first two rounds. We don't know who the backup is
[44:56] Speaker 4: on a bunch of them, and so you get to
[44:58] Speaker 4: the end of drafts and you're like, oh, well, or
[45:00] Speaker 4: you're trying to build a zero RB team, you you
[45:02] Speaker 4: could be like right about a lot of things and
[45:04] Speaker 4: just not get you know, not put all the pieces together.
[45:09] Speaker 4: So I think, sort of like in the abstract, I
[45:11] Speaker 4: think there probably will be some really good zero RB picks,
[45:15] Speaker 4: Like if you're building around like your Tank Dells, your
[45:17] Speaker 4: Ray Davis is, like, some of those guys are likely
[45:20] Speaker 4: to be hits, but like they're gonna be zero's a lot,
[45:23] Speaker 4: Like they're gonna be zero's for best ball more often
[45:27] Speaker 4: than not. So again, it's hard in a contest where
[45:30] Speaker 4: you only have one hundred and fifty bullets to like
[45:33] Speaker 4: create the exact funnel down, and then you also have
[45:35] Speaker 4: to get the other stuff right too, like you have
[45:37] Speaker 4: to pick the right receiver. I don't know, so it's
[45:40] Speaker 4: very uncomfy. I think I think zero RB has a
[45:44] Speaker 4: good shot to work this year because there are really
[45:47] Speaker 4: nice receiver values. Because everyone's pushed the running back so far,
[45:50] Speaker 4: but it's very hard for me to like comfort I
[45:53] Speaker 4: do build zero. I build like all the different different structures.
[45:56] Speaker 4: I'm gonna get about a thousand drafts done. I'm not
[45:58] Speaker 4: going to do only robust RB, but true zero RB
[46:02] Speaker 4: is probably the one I do the fewest, and it's
[46:04] Speaker 4: usually from like draft spots three through five, just the
[46:08] Speaker 4: way the boards go, which I also don't love. But
[46:10] Speaker 4: that's a whole other tangent, because it's very comfy to
[46:12] Speaker 4: start with your like your Jamar Chase, your Drake London,
[46:16] Speaker 4: and then whatever your third round wide receiver du jor
[46:19] Speaker 4: and then you're like, okay, I'll take you know, Judkins
[46:21] Speaker 4: or two like just kind of build themselves down. It
[46:25] Speaker 4: could be exactly what you need. But I again, this
[46:27] Speaker 4: is I'm almost talking to myself here. I'm like, I
[46:29] Speaker 4: kind of want to try it over on the right
[46:31] Speaker 4: side of the board a little more than maybe on
[46:32] Speaker 4: That's a good point.
[46:33] Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a really good point.
[46:34] Speaker 1: I also think that like what you're saying too is
[46:37] Speaker 1: sort of this, like, do you think that the general
[46:41] Speaker 1: Best Ball audience feels like in order to win in
[46:45] Speaker 1: Best Ball, your lineup has to be perfect as opposed
[46:48] Speaker 1: to the lineup just has to be like really good.
[46:52] Speaker 1: And I do agree from like a zero RB perspective,
[46:55] Speaker 1: if you were to think about like what ends up
[46:57] Speaker 1: being an optimal way an optimal lineup at the end
[47:00] Speaker 1: of the season in hindsight, you know, if you were
[47:02] Speaker 1: to play best ball for the season, you know, like
[47:05] Speaker 1: like just looking back and saying like, oh, I could
[47:07] Speaker 1: play this this running back, Like what would that ideal
[47:10] Speaker 1: lineup look like. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw
[47:12] Speaker 1: a decent amount of zero RB type builds, because you know,
[47:15] Speaker 1: if a running back's hurt and a backup steps in,
[47:17] Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, you have these very cheap,
[47:20] Speaker 1: you know, backup running backs and you know, very good
[47:22] Speaker 1: wide receivers and tight ends and such. But then at
[47:25] Speaker 1: the same time, to your point, I think what you're
[47:27] Speaker 1: kind of describing is this idea that you know, while
[47:31] Speaker 1: you're drafting, you're recognizing that you can still hit a
[47:34] Speaker 1: ninetieth percentile outcome and still win and still do really
[47:37] Speaker 1: really well because in that playoff week, you know, you
[47:40] Speaker 1: could hit on pits and then get that really good
[47:42] Speaker 1: Week seventeen correlation matchup and then all of a sudden,
[47:46] Speaker 1: you're good to go, Like would you agree with that? That?
[47:47] Speaker 1: It's sort of like a what's optimal from like a
[47:50] Speaker 1: mathematical looking back perspective, all of these games already were
[47:53] Speaker 1: played versus you're making these decisions right now. It's really
[47:57] Speaker 1: easy to say, hey McGowan's the dude that we want
[48:00] Speaker 1: to help, oh.
[48:01] Speaker 2: And ended up being you know, DJ Gidtins.
[48:03] Speaker 6: Yeah, no, I agree. I agree with you on that
[48:06] Speaker 6: as well.
[48:06] Speaker 4: And maybe that's part of my issue, is like feeling
[48:08] Speaker 4: that I need to be perfect on everything and you don't.
[48:12] Speaker 6: I mean, you know, two years or was I guess
[48:14] Speaker 6: three years ago?
[48:14] Speaker 4: Now? The winning PBM team had like Pachecko in like
[48:17] Speaker 4: round six and he like didn't play Like you don't
[48:20] Speaker 4: need to nail everything right.
[48:22] Speaker 2: The way that these things are structured too, it's like
[48:24] Speaker 2: a lot of teams that make it to the finals
[48:26] Speaker 2: barely got out around one. You know that it's not
[48:29] Speaker 2: it's it's not.
[48:30] Speaker 1: Gonna just be this like perfect linear Oh, I just
[48:33] Speaker 1: dominated throughout the playoffs type of scenario. In situation, there's
[48:36] Speaker 1: gonna be some luck involved, there's gonna be some other
[48:39] Speaker 1: factors that are involved.
[48:40] Speaker 2: That shows you that it doesn't have to be perfect.
[48:42] Speaker 1: So I think it's a good thing to bring up
[48:44] Speaker 1: because you know a lot of people are like, oh,
[48:45] Speaker 1: I can't you know, screw this one up because my
[48:48] Speaker 1: team has It's like, okay, yeah, you ideally don't want
[48:50] Speaker 1: to take zeros. I totally agree with that. But then
[48:52] Speaker 1: at the same time, you know, if your lineup is
[48:55] Speaker 1: not ideal, you can still do okay, you know you
[48:57] Speaker 1: can still you can still win out. One place that
[49:00] Speaker 1: I've had a lot of struggle with, like this is
[49:02] Speaker 1: more so with the late Round draft guide, i'd say
[49:04] Speaker 1: than anything else. But you know, I'm giving players to
[49:07] Speaker 1: avoid in that guide, and I you know, I'm giving
[49:11] Speaker 1: a couple of like top thirty wide receivers, and I
[49:14] Speaker 1: just don't you know, I have a confidence level of one.
[49:16] Speaker 1: You know, I rate confidence levels for these things and
[49:19] Speaker 1: for these players to target and avoid, and these guys
[49:22] Speaker 1: have common levels of one. Because I look at the
[49:24] Speaker 1: top thirty wide receivers and I'm like, I don't really
[49:26] Speaker 1: mind any.
[49:27] Speaker 2: Of them to a degree.
[49:28] Speaker 1: Are there any fades for you in that range or
[49:30] Speaker 1: are you kind of in the same boat?
[49:32] Speaker 4: For me, it's just been a Buka weirdly enough. I
[49:35] Speaker 4: don't know why I I maybe it's just I'm salting
[49:37] Speaker 4: because I was taking a ton of him in the
[49:38] Speaker 4: big board last year, and I absolutely hated that he
[49:41] Speaker 4: went to Tampa, like I thought it was terrible. I
[49:43] Speaker 4: was also a bit of a McMillan truth there. I
[49:45] Speaker 4: was like, they don't need him, they have McMillan, Like,
[49:47] Speaker 4: what are we doing here? Then I kind of let
[49:50] Speaker 4: separation score Twitter get to me last season, where you know,
[49:53] Speaker 4: he was producing, but like people were like, he shouldn't be,
[49:56] Speaker 4: he's getting lucky all this and the other I don't know,
[49:59] Speaker 4: it's part of it is like I don't know. The
[50:03] Speaker 4: Tampa Bay did sort of fall on their face last year.
[50:06] Speaker 4: I mean, Baker got hurt, the whole thing kind of
[50:08] Speaker 4: had systemic collapse. And now Evans is gone. So should
[50:12] Speaker 4: I be in on Igbuka.
[50:13] Speaker 5: Maybe?
[50:14] Speaker 4: But I also feel like I feel like there's a
[50:15] Speaker 4: chance Godwin's just a wide receiver one and we're getting
[50:18] Speaker 4: him fifty picks later. So I'm a little bit heavier
[50:21] Speaker 4: on Godwin. Buk is probably the closest thing I have
[50:25] Speaker 4: to a full fade now with the toe injury stuff.
[50:28] Speaker 4: If he starts falling again. He's a guy that I'm
[50:31] Speaker 4: not necessarily worried about his role. I don't really think
[50:33] Speaker 4: there's although you know, you could quibble he was maybe
[50:37] Speaker 4: losing a little bit of work at the end of
[50:39] Speaker 4: last year. Again, last year was so hard to judge
[50:41] Speaker 4: with the injuries and the team just kind of collapsing.
[50:45] Speaker 4: But yeah, Buka is probably the one guy I've been
[50:47] Speaker 4: out on.
[50:47] Speaker 1: Do you think that if his ADP does fall a
[50:49] Speaker 1: little bit more, I mean it's falling slightly. It hasn't
[50:51] Speaker 1: been like dramatic, but like, do you think that you
[50:53] Speaker 1: would end up buying back in at least a little bit.
[50:56] Speaker 4: I might use it as a chance to buy back in,
[50:58] Speaker 4: but again, it's like going back to it if I
[51:00] Speaker 4: get him at thirty five versus thirty or you know,
[51:03] Speaker 4: it's like, well, now I'm just pairing him with different people.
[51:05] Speaker 6: I like all of them, so it's uh, it's yeah, yeah.
[51:08] Speaker 4: I mean it makes you feel good, it makes you
[51:09] Speaker 4: feel like any I got a discount.
[51:11] Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, no, I feel you. If you're not into
[51:13] Speaker 1: a player, don't don't force the issue necessarily, right. One
[51:17] Speaker 1: other thing I want to ask is with draft rooms now,
[51:20] Speaker 1: just having so much more information on sleepers and such.
[51:23] Speaker 1: Do you have any players right now with them? To me,
[51:26] Speaker 1: it's becoming a little bit more difficult to find, like
[51:28] Speaker 1: your favorite late round picks, right Do you have any favorites.
[51:31] Speaker 2: Are that are going really late right now in these drafts?
[51:35] Speaker 4: So I was getting warm on Caleb Douglas. I was
[51:38] Speaker 4: taking him. I see him going like round fourteen sometime, like, yeah,
[51:42] Speaker 4: we're starting to get pricey. Pat Bryant, I don't feel
[51:45] Speaker 4: like has risen enough. Yees agreed, you can still get
[51:48] Speaker 4: him late, which I find very surprising. And I don't
[51:50] Speaker 4: know if that's because again the Cyrus Allen, Jacobe Lane
[51:54] Speaker 4: and Caleb hype has kind of pushed them up. I
[51:56] Speaker 4: would say Pat Bryant's a big one. Those are like
[51:59] Speaker 4: the late guys I want to be in on.
[52:01] Speaker 6: And I'm going to give you a gross name.
[52:02] Speaker 2: I want to hear. I want to hear the grossest name.
[52:04] Speaker 2: Give me the grossest name you can.
[52:06] Speaker 4: Yeah, let's say, stopped clicking him, but I was taking
[52:09] Speaker 4: some Xavi and Thomas.
[52:10] Speaker 1: Yeah, I've clicked some Xavian Thomas too. All Right, we'll
[52:13] Speaker 1: be XAVI on Thomas.
[52:14] Speaker 2: Brows together let's go. That's go.
[52:16] Speaker 4: I don't know it. It seems like he could carve
[52:19] Speaker 4: himself out a little bit of a little bit of
[52:21] Speaker 4: a role. I mean, last I saw on Twitter he
[52:23] Speaker 4: was getting yelled at by Ben Johnson for like messing
[52:26] Speaker 4: up a prestat motion, and I'm like, I don't know,
[52:28] Speaker 4: I've been literally I haven't heard from him since, so
[52:30] Speaker 4: I hope he's not like running with the fivees.
[52:31] Speaker 1: But you know, yeah, I mean he was from my perspective,
[52:36] Speaker 1: as like a prospect profiling perspective, he was gadgety, but
[52:39] Speaker 1: I think gadgety can super super fast gadget he can
[52:43] Speaker 1: work in a Ben Johnson offense, right, Like, yeah, I
[52:45] Speaker 1: kind of viewed him as like they're and I know
[52:47] Speaker 1: they have Khaliff Raymond, but like this could be his
[52:49] Speaker 1: new Khaliff Raymond type player. So I've thrown to dart
[52:53] Speaker 1: his way and like bring backs bear stacks because it's
[52:56] Speaker 1: only the Bears are super easy to stack in that game.
[53:00] Speaker 1: Seventeen game is like impossible to stack against Detroit. So
[53:03] Speaker 1: it's it's a way to at least get some player,
[53:05] Speaker 1: you know in that in that offense, you know, as
[53:07] Speaker 1: a bringback or part of the stack.
[53:09] Speaker 4: Yeah, you talk about a guy who might get more
[53:11] Speaker 4: of a role as the season goes on. I mean,
[53:13] Speaker 4: who knows they could use him in the running game
[53:14] Speaker 4: a bit exactly exactly.
[53:15] Speaker 2: I could see it. I could see it.
[53:17] Speaker 1: I'm assuming your bold take here at the end is
[53:19] Speaker 1: not going to be about Xavian Thomas, but I would
[53:23] Speaker 1: love to hear a bold.
[53:24] Speaker 2: Take for this twenty twenty six fantasy season.
[53:26] Speaker 4: All right, my bold take, I think Malik Willis finishes
[53:29] Speaker 4: as a top six.
[53:30] Speaker 6: Quarterback on all that.
[53:32] Speaker 2: I love that.
[53:32] Speaker 6: Yeah, Malik Willis, Yeah, is.
[53:35] Speaker 1: There any hesitation for you from a best ball perspective?
[53:37] Speaker 1: Because you obviously you know you can't.
[53:39] Speaker 2: You were like, is there any worry?
[53:41] Speaker 1: I guess from there, like I haven't really had much
[53:43] Speaker 1: concern about like him being benched or something like that.
[53:47] Speaker 4: Yeah, so I've gotten this wrong because I didn't think
[53:49] Speaker 4: there was any worry that Justin Fields would get bench
[53:52] Speaker 4: last year. And it feels a little like, well, true,
[53:54] Speaker 4: Justin Fields has never been tried, Like we can we
[53:57] Speaker 4: can get there. We just need someone with the courage. Like,
[54:00] Speaker 4: I don't know, I think Malik, I really don't think
[54:02] Speaker 4: there's much of a Malik Willis bench risk. I really
[54:05] Speaker 4: don't think that's the case. You know, he looked again.
[54:08] Speaker 4: I don't like looking too much into preseason performance, but
[54:11] Speaker 4: he looked competent moving that offense. It did feel like
[54:14] Speaker 4: he had command of the team. I don't know, I
[54:17] Speaker 4: don't have too much worry. Yeah, it could be a bit.
[54:19] Speaker 6: Up and down.
[54:19] Speaker 4: The Dolphins are projected to be really lousy. But if
[54:22] Speaker 4: they're willing to stick to the plan of having him
[54:26] Speaker 4: run the ball like, you know, ten twelve times a
[54:29] Speaker 4: game like he could, you know, he could have a
[54:31] Speaker 4: monster year. You could have a thousand yards rushing. And yeah,
[54:34] Speaker 4: if the passing game isn't completely his you know, his
[54:36] Speaker 4: one trait that everyone says, well, at least he's good at,
[54:38] Speaker 4: like the deep ball. I think he's good more than
[54:41] Speaker 4: just that. But that sounds pretty fantasy friendly to me.
[54:43] Speaker 4: Like if he doesn't need high volume like, oh no,
[54:45] Speaker 4: all he can do is throw deep touchdown, all right,
[54:49] Speaker 4: sounds great. They're gonna be losing and he's throwing deep
[54:52] Speaker 4: like sign me up, right, So yeah, I'm in on
[54:55] Speaker 4: Malik Willis could be bad.
[54:56] Speaker 1: Also, like, do you find yourself going through QB often?
[55:00] Speaker 1: So like, I feel like that's another like sort of
[55:02] Speaker 1: installation with Malik is that you know, even if he
[55:05] Speaker 1: gives you eleven weeks or something like that, and you
[55:08] Speaker 1: know that you're getting the mobility, you still have the
[55:10] Speaker 1: backup of a couple of other quarterbacks if you're going
[55:12] Speaker 1: with three quarterback builds, and you still have a couple
[55:14] Speaker 1: of stacks if those teams do advance.
[55:16] Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I feel like he's perfect for three
[55:19] Speaker 4: QB builds, Like if I don't have to rely on
[55:20] Speaker 4: him every week if he does have you know that
[55:23] Speaker 4: one week where he just gets completely shut down.
[55:25] Speaker 2: Yeah, fine, totally agree, Chad, this was great, man.
[55:28] Speaker 1: Let everyone know where they can find you, what you've
[55:29] Speaker 1: been doing, and where they can watch them your content.
[55:32] Speaker 4: Yeah, Chad Candle's YouTube channel. I stream Best Ball Draft
[55:36] Speaker 4: eight thirty am every weekday. And yeah, I'd love for
[55:39] Speaker 4: you to come on buy and hang out in the mornings.
[55:42] Speaker 4: It's a good time.
[55:43] Speaker 2: Yeah, it's great.
[55:43] Speaker 1: You're doing awesome work, so I really appreciate the time
[55:46] Speaker 1: and you hopping on everyone else. Make sure you're subscribe
[55:48] Speaker 1: to this podcast, subscribe to the YouTube channel. You can
[55:50] Speaker 1: watch this on YouTube as well at late round FF
[55:54] Speaker 1: Otherwise everyone, thanks for tuning in.

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