# 1148: Mailbag - The Denver Offense, Matthew Golden, and More

An episode of [The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1224965828), 23 Oct 2026, 21 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0a233618-d694-4c81-a139-b34e00f98fb1/5420dce1-32eb-4826-9c65-b4eb00f43ac7/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=5747cc82-33a9-497c-8353-b34e00f98fbe

On this week's mailbag episode, JJ talks about Denver's offense potentially bouncing back, Matthew Golden's awesome start, Josh Jacobs' projection, and more. Make sure to check out LateRound.com to become a member! The new Members Hub is the place for rankings and tiers, data dumps, and more. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: This is the Late Round Podcast with your host, J.J. Zacharyson.
[0:11] Speaker 1: What's up, everyone? It's J.J.
[0:13] Speaker 2: Zacharyson. In this episode 1148 of the Late Round Fantasy
[0:17] Speaker 2: Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in. Remember to check out
[0:22] Speaker 2: the Late Round newsletter. It's absolutely free. Just head to
[0:25] Speaker 2: lateround.com and sign up. You get the data dump in
[0:27] Speaker 2: your inbox every Monday morning, the 15 transactions list on
[0:30] Speaker 2: Tuesday morning, Brandon Gadula's matchups notes on Wednesday, and then
[0:34] Speaker 2: David Kitchen, he rounds it all out with an email
[0:36] Speaker 2: on Friday. It's a great newsletter. It's absolutely free. Go
[0:40] Speaker 2: sign up right now over on lateround.com. The first question
[0:46] Speaker 2: this week is from Daniel, and it says, do you
[0:47] Speaker 2: foresee any sort of positive regression coming from the Denver offense?
[0:51] Speaker 2: Bo Nix looks genuinely awful, and I'm seriously considering trading
[0:55] Speaker 2: away Jalen Waddell and getting off this Denver freight train. Okay,
[0:59] Speaker 2: so let's start by looking at how this Denver offense
[1:01] Speaker 2: has played through six weeks. By EPA per play, they
[1:05] Speaker 2: rank 25th. By EPA per dropback, they're 26th. Offensive touchdowns
[1:09] Speaker 2: per game, 25th. Yards per play, 31st. The list goes
[1:13] Speaker 2: on and on. It's been a bad offense. I wanted
[1:16] Speaker 2: to see if we've ever seen anything like this before.
[1:19] Speaker 2: So I pulled some comps of this year's Denver offense
[1:21] Speaker 2: with other offenses since 2016. I looked at the metrics
[1:25] Speaker 2: that I just mentioned, and I also wanted to find
[1:27] Speaker 2: teams who had some stability at quarterback. Like, the strangest
[1:32] Speaker 2: part of this season isn't simply that Denver's offense has
[1:35] Speaker 2: been so bad. It's that we have a multi-year sample
[1:38] Speaker 2: with this exact same quarterback and this exact same coach
[1:41] Speaker 2: where they haven't been this bad. They were totally average
[1:45] Speaker 2: through six weeks last year in EPA per dropback and
[1:48] Speaker 2: in touchdowns per game. Denver ranked 14th last season by
[1:51] Speaker 2: the end of the year in touchdowns per game. So
[1:54] Speaker 2: I wanted to find some teams, some comps, who were
[1:57] Speaker 2: decent in their previous season and then who struggled through
[2:00] Speaker 2: the first six weeks the following year. And then who
[2:02] Speaker 2: had some quarterback stability. In order to do that, I
[2:06] Speaker 2: looked at EPA per play, EPA per dropback, offensive touchdowns
[2:09] Speaker 2: per game, and then yards per play. The good news
[2:12] Speaker 2: here is that many of these teams saw improvement in
[2:15] Speaker 2: the major categories after week 6. For instance, in EPA
[2:18] Speaker 2: per play, Denver ranks 25th right now. Their top 10
[2:22] Speaker 2: comps rank 24th. The comps averaged though from week 7
[2:27] Speaker 2: onward ended up being 18th in EPA per play.
[2:31] Speaker 1: So it was an uptick of about 6 spots. 9
[2:34] Speaker 1: out of 10 teams improved in EPA per play.
[2:38] Speaker 2: And then you look at offensive touchdowns per game. 7
[2:40] Speaker 2: of the 10 teams improved there. The Broncos are 25th
[2:44] Speaker 2: right now. The Comp List was 21st. And they finished
[2:48] Speaker 2: with the rest of the season 18th. So essentially, history
[2:52] Speaker 2: tells us that Denver's offense is almost definitely going to
[2:55] Speaker 2: be better from here on out.
[2:56] Speaker 1: That's the good news.
[2:58] Speaker 2: The bad news is that it's pretty rare for a
[3:00] Speaker 2: team to just become like a top 10 team after
[3:03] Speaker 2: this slow of a start. Remember, these comps are looking
[3:06] Speaker 2: at teams who had quarterback stability. None of these teams
[3:09] Speaker 2: just had a backup quarterback playing and then the starter
[3:12] Speaker 2: like came back and then that's why they started to
[3:14] Speaker 2: play well. And even the team that saw the biggest
[3:16] Speaker 2: increase in touchdowns per game after week six, that team
[3:20] Speaker 2: was the 2024 Chargers from this comp list. That was
[3:24] Speaker 2: the year though where Justin Herbert, he started the season
[3:26] Speaker 2: off with a high ankle sprain. So the offense got
[3:29] Speaker 2: better because he got healthier. The vast majority of these teams,
[3:33] Speaker 2: they went from being really bad to average to below average.
[3:37] Speaker 2: Which honestly, based on what we've seen from Denver, we'd
[3:40] Speaker 2: probably take that. And I think that's going to have
[3:42] Speaker 2: a strong impact on everyone on that team, including Jalen Waddell.
[3:46] Speaker 2: Waddell's just not seeing that much down the field. And
[3:48] Speaker 2: with the offense not being super efficient, he's not getting
[3:51] Speaker 2: any scoring opportunities. If you want to think about this
[3:54] Speaker 2: though from a glass half full perspective, he's still a
[3:57] Speaker 2: wide receiver three or a wide receiver four and expected
[3:59] Speaker 2: PPR points per game this year. Denver's also faced the
[4:02] Speaker 2: second toughest wide receiver schedule from an adjusted points allowed perspective.
[4:07] Speaker 2: It's not an amazing rest of season, but their schedule,
[4:09] Speaker 2: according to our numbers, it ranks 25th rest of season.
[4:11] Speaker 1: The playoff schedule ranks 15th.
[4:14] Speaker 2: So based on history, based on usage, based on all
[4:18] Speaker 2: of the above, I'm expecting Denver's offense to improve. And
[4:22] Speaker 2: I would imagine that Jalen Waddell eventually becomes a lot
[4:25] Speaker 2: more usable. Now, is he going to live up to
[4:27] Speaker 2: his preseason expectation? Probably not. But could he be a
[4:30] Speaker 2: solid wide receiver three, maybe even inching into wide receiver
[4:33] Speaker 2: two territory? I think it's at least possible. If things
[4:37] Speaker 2: go in more of an above average way based on
[4:39] Speaker 2: these comps, like a 70th percentile outcome, 75th percentile outcome,
[4:44] Speaker 2: I do think that's very possible. So to me, these
[4:47] Speaker 2: guys aren't sells, they're not drops. I'd give it a second,
[4:50] Speaker 2: especially because they have a really good matchup this week
[4:52] Speaker 2: against Arizona. This next question is from Jeff. It says, JJ,
[4:58] Speaker 2: can you explain usage stats? If a running back is
[5:01] Speaker 2: RB10 on the week on RB20 usage, is that good?
[5:05] Speaker 2: I assume yes, but why? Does this simply mean they're
[5:08] Speaker 2: performing better than we expect? Digging further, how are usage
[5:12] Speaker 2: expectations determined? So it depends on how you're defining usage.
[5:16] Speaker 2: There are tons of ways to look at usage. We
[5:19] Speaker 2: have our expected fantasy points formula that I think is
[5:21] Speaker 2: a really straightforward way to determine the type of touches
[5:24] Speaker 2: that a player had. That'll look at where the player
[5:26] Speaker 2: is seeing touches and how many touches he's actually seeing
[5:29] Speaker 2: to determine how many fantasy points he should have scored.
[5:33] Speaker 2: But we also know that, for instance, a player in
[5:35] Speaker 2: one game could just have a ton of goal line touches.
[5:38] Speaker 2: That would skew that number. The number isn't wrong, but
[5:42] Speaker 2: we just can't assume that those touches, that they're going
[5:44] Speaker 2: to be there week in and week out. So beyond
[5:47] Speaker 2: expected fantasy points, I'm looking at some pretty straightforward share statistics.
[5:51] Speaker 2: Snap share, rush share, target share, route share. That's what
[5:55] Speaker 2: I'm looking at for running backs. And there's route share
[5:58] Speaker 2: and target share at wide receiver. Essentially, those numbers can
[6:01] Speaker 2: show team intent. How often they want their players on
[6:05] Speaker 2: the field. When those numbers are better, they'll lead to
[6:08] Speaker 2: more volume, and we want that volume in fantasy football.
[6:11] Speaker 2: That's what scores fantasy points. You can then dissect all
[6:15] Speaker 2: of those statistics even further, right? Like not just snap share,
[6:19] Speaker 2: but goal line snap share. Not just raw targets, but
[6:23] Speaker 2: end zone targets. Your question's asking if a running back
[6:26] Speaker 2: finishes as the RB10, but he's the RB20 on usage,
[6:30] Speaker 2: is that good or bad? Does this simply mean they're
[6:33] Speaker 2: performing better than we expect? I mean, I think in
[6:37] Speaker 2: that particular example, if it's just one game, it'd be
[6:40] Speaker 2: pretty meaningless, right? RB20 usage will produce RB10 production all
[6:45] Speaker 2: the time, because there's a lot of variance involved in
[6:47] Speaker 2: that one game sample. A player can simply find the
[6:50] Speaker 2: end zone and shoot up 10 spots in his running
[6:53] Speaker 2: back rank. But if you're looking across the season, yes,
[6:56] Speaker 2: you'd probably expect some sort of regression eventually. Because over
[7:00] Speaker 2: multiple games, if usage continues to be like the RB20,
[7:04] Speaker 2: you'd expect that production to closely follow. Now I could
[7:08] Speaker 2: go on and on and on about this because there
[7:10] Speaker 2: are literally so many layers to it.
[7:13] Speaker 1: Like some players are going to naturally outperform their.
[7:15] Speaker 2: Usage or their expectation because they're just good at football
[7:19] Speaker 2: or because their offense is really favorable. A wide receiver
[7:23] Speaker 2: seeing accurate targets, he's going to perform better than one
[7:26] Speaker 2: who's seeing less accurate targets. But the general idea here
[7:29] Speaker 2: is that fantasy football is this giant puzzle. It's why
[7:33] Speaker 2: I love it so much. We're trying to put together
[7:35] Speaker 2: this puzzle by taking a whole bunch of different metrics
[7:38] Speaker 2: and obviously some subjectivity, we're putting it together to form
[7:42] Speaker 2: this clearer picture. Sometimes we're missing pieces, we have to
[7:45] Speaker 2: just guess what those pieces look like. But with more
[7:49] Speaker 2: puzzle pieces to use, the easier that picture is to see. Genuinely,
[7:54] Speaker 2: this is a hard one to answer just because it
[7:56] Speaker 2: can go in so many different directions. But hopefully the
[7:58] Speaker 2: idea here makes sense. Usage is not defined as just
[8:02] Speaker 2: one thing. It's many things. Over the long run, though,
[8:07] Speaker 2: usage will usually meet production in some way. Just know
[8:10] Speaker 2: that there's a lot of nuance to this, which is
[8:13] Speaker 2: why my job exists and why this podcast exists. This
[8:19] Speaker 2: next question is from Connor. It says, Many analysts were
[8:22] Speaker 2: in on the Packers' pass catchers this offseason, but I
[8:24] Speaker 2: don't remember anyone being really into Matthew Golden specifically. For
[8:28] Speaker 2: a current top 12 wide receiver that went in such
[8:31] Speaker 2: a late round, what do you think everyone was missing?
[8:34] Speaker 2: And are you surprised at all by the performance so far?
[8:38] Speaker 2: So it's funny that I got this question this week
[8:39] Speaker 2: because I was talking about this on the late round
[8:41] Speaker 2: Discord with members just the other day. Now I can
[8:44] Speaker 2: at least speak for myself as an analyst here.
[8:46] Speaker 1: I can't speak for other analysts. I don't know what
[8:49] Speaker 1: others were thinking.
[8:50] Speaker 2: But my relationship with Matthew Golden as a fantasy asset,
[8:54] Speaker 2: it's been kind of strange. I thought he was more
[8:56] Speaker 2: of a sell in Dynasty over the last year or so,
[8:59] Speaker 2: which was clearly very wrong. But my redraft stance, it
[9:03] Speaker 2: didn't really match that, because his price wasn't high enough
[9:06] Speaker 2: for me to be concerned about that kind of stance.
[9:09] Speaker 2: In actuality, my ranking of Golden was higher than a
[9:12] Speaker 2: lot of the major platforms, according to their ADP. So
[9:15] Speaker 2: he's on some of my teams, even if he wasn't
[9:18] Speaker 2: a target for me. I say that because it's a
[9:20] Speaker 2: good example of how fantasy football is such a cost-driven game.
[9:25] Speaker 2: You can be out on a player's talent. You might
[9:27] Speaker 2: not like a player that much, but maybe you think
[9:30] Speaker 2: his situation isn't that bad. And all of a sudden
[9:32] Speaker 2: you find yourself either in line with the market or
[9:34] Speaker 2: even higher than the market. You're just playing odds. And
[9:38] Speaker 2: the odds were not in Matthew Golden's favor, in my opinion.
[9:41] Speaker 2: That's why people weren't drafting him as like a top
[9:44] Speaker 2: 30 wide receiver. Look, we're seeing a really good outcome
[9:47] Speaker 2: play out. But I think we just need to be
[9:50] Speaker 2: okay with understanding that this happens sometimes.
[9:53] Speaker 1: That players can have really rough rookie seasons.
[9:56] Speaker 2: They can improve. They can grow confidence in a new role.
[10:00] Speaker 2: and they can then ball out but like objectively matthew
[10:03] Speaker 2: golden had problems with his analytical profile as a prospect
[10:06] Speaker 2: that's not everything i understand it's not everything i know
[10:10] Speaker 2: that people are listening to this and they're like yeah
[10:12] Speaker 2: jj analytics don't tell you everything about prospecting i'm fully
[10:16] Speaker 2: aware of that But again, in this game of probability,
[10:19] Speaker 2: if you're playing the odds, those odds would point to
[10:22] Speaker 2: Golden being a risky round one player versus a safe one.
[10:25] Speaker 2: And then year one really reinforced that idea. I'll just
[10:29] Speaker 2: read what I had written in his year two profile
[10:31] Speaker 2: in this year's prospect guide. It says, among all year
[10:34] Speaker 2: two model wide receivers who failed to reach seven PPR
[10:37] Speaker 2: points per game as rookies, only seven of them went
[10:39] Speaker 2: on to average at least 14 PPR points per game
[10:42] Speaker 2: in either year two, three, or four. Two of those
[10:45] Speaker 2: wideouts were Randall Cobb and Chris Godwin, and both posted
[10:48] Speaker 2: yards per outrun rates north of 2.0 as rookies. The
[10:52] Speaker 2: peripherals were there to support future production. That leaves five names.
[10:57] Speaker 2: Devontae Adams, Corey Davis, DJ Chark, Nico Collins, and Jamison Williams.
[11:02] Speaker 2: Davis and Chark were never consistent wide receiver two assets
[11:06] Speaker 2: in fantasy football. And Jamison Williams, he only missed that
[11:09] Speaker 2: mark as a rookie because of injury. Sure, a bounce
[11:12] Speaker 2: back outcome exists for Golden. It's just not a likely one.
[11:16] Speaker 2: And in a game of probability, that's obviously important. At
[11:20] Speaker 2: the end of his profile, then I said, the market
[11:22] Speaker 2: still has some interest in Golden, but it's understandable if
[11:25] Speaker 2: you'd rather just wait this thing out at this point.
[11:28] Speaker 2: The Packers wide receiver room could look different in 2026
[11:31] Speaker 2: as well, which only adds to the intrigue. Just understand this,
[11:35] Speaker 2: the odds are not in his favor. Then if you
[11:38] Speaker 2: guys also recall during the summer, market score did not
[11:41] Speaker 2: like Matthew Golden. Like I try really hard to have
[11:44] Speaker 2: an open mind about any possible outcome for a player,
[11:47] Speaker 2: including a player like Matthew Golden. A lot of people
[11:50] Speaker 2: on the more analytical side of the conversation, they tend
[11:53] Speaker 2: to just write players off. When I at least want
[11:55] Speaker 2: to think in terms of range of outcomes. I don't
[11:58] Speaker 2: want to think in a black and white way. And look,
[12:01] Speaker 2: maybe that lack of gray area thinking makes for better
[12:04] Speaker 2: headlines and more intriguing content.
[12:06] Speaker 1: But I want to look at all this realistically. I
[12:08] Speaker 1: want to help you win. I want to be honest.
[12:11] Speaker 2: And realistically, odds were against Matthew Golden, but they weren't zero.
[12:15] Speaker 2: We'd seen some hits from players with this type of profile.
[12:18] Speaker 2: It just wasn't very common. And unfortunately, when you're making
[12:22] Speaker 2: one rankings list, or you're having one draft, you don't
[12:27] Speaker 2: make rankings for all those different outcomes.
[12:30] Speaker 1: You're making rankings for one probable outcome. Golden just happened to,
[12:34] Speaker 1: number one, improve as a player.
[12:37] Speaker 2: Some of the most respected people who analyze wide receivers,
[12:40] Speaker 2: they were nervous about Matthew Golden after year one. Analysts
[12:43] Speaker 2: who liked him entering the league. I think it's fine
[12:46] Speaker 2: to say, hey, good for you, man. You improved as
[12:49] Speaker 2: a player. He still has some things to work on,
[12:52] Speaker 2: and he's always been a good separator. But he's brought
[12:54] Speaker 2: his game together a lot more in year two than
[12:57] Speaker 2: what we saw from him in year one. Number two,
[12:59] Speaker 2: I think this situation just worked out really, really well
[13:02] Speaker 2: for him. I was in on the Packers passing attack
[13:05] Speaker 2: this year. Christian Watson was a target of mine in
[13:07] Speaker 2: the draft guide. So was Jaden Reed, actually. One of
[13:10] Speaker 2: my bold predictions was that either Jared Goff or Jordan
[13:13] Speaker 2: Love would outscore Joe Burrow in fantasy football. Because there
[13:16] Speaker 2: was this path for more passing from this Packers offense.
[13:20] Speaker 2: We're seeing that. But then we're also seeing this narrower
[13:23] Speaker 2: target tree with a Jaden Reed injury. It's been the
[13:26] Speaker 2: perfect storm for Matthew Golden to dominate in fantasy football.
[13:30] Speaker 2: So from a process standpoint, did I learn anything? Is
[13:33] Speaker 2: there any takeaway here? I mean, I think it's really
[13:36] Speaker 2: smart to keep an open mind, but I would argue
[13:39] Speaker 2: that I did keep an open mind. I just read
[13:42] Speaker 2: you what I wrote about him in the prospect guide.
[13:44] Speaker 2: I didn't say Matthew Golden sucks. He's not going to
[13:47] Speaker 2: work out. It said that odds weren't in his favor
[13:50] Speaker 2: based on history. And nine times out of 10, that's
[13:53] Speaker 2: the right process. That's the right call. It just wasn't
[13:57] Speaker 2: with Matthew Golden. And the best thing that we can
[13:59] Speaker 2: do when we get new information is to react to
[14:02] Speaker 2: that information. Do not hold onto your priors. And that's
[14:06] Speaker 2: where I'm really happy about my analysis. Because Matthew Golden,
[14:10] Speaker 2: right after week one, he was a buy for me.
[14:13] Speaker 2: I've been way ahead of the market on Matthew Golden
[14:16] Speaker 2: since that week one game. Since we saw him in
[14:19] Speaker 2: this 2026 offense. This is all about playing probability, but
[14:23] Speaker 2: then it's about shifting your priors when new information becomes available.
[14:27] Speaker 2: Just because odds were against him in May doesn't mean
[14:30] Speaker 2: they're against him when we see a performance in September.
[14:33] Speaker 2: Things change, and oftentimes, you can be ahead of the
[14:36] Speaker 2: market if you have the experience to read the situation properly.
[14:40] Speaker 2: The market takes a second to react to some stuff.
[14:43] Speaker 2: The bottom line here, though, is that being open-minded to
[14:46] Speaker 2: players making jumps is really important. You don't have to
[14:50] Speaker 2: project this kind of change, because this kind of change
[14:54] Speaker 2: is pretty rare. But if you see something changing in
[14:57] Speaker 2: an offense, which I did entering the season, you should
[14:59] Speaker 2: probably be more open-minded about an underperforming player maybe performing
[15:03] Speaker 2: a lot better in that newer offensive environment. That's where
[15:07] Speaker 2: I should have changed my process. Instead of being at market,
[15:11] Speaker 2: I really should have been way ahead of the market
[15:12] Speaker 2: with Golden, realistically. I liked Christian Watson. I liked Jaden Reed.
[15:17] Speaker 2: It pains me that I wasn't way ahead on Matthew Golden.
[15:20] Speaker 2: But at least I was able to react. And I
[15:23] Speaker 2: didn't get stuck on my priors. That's what's often so
[15:26] Speaker 2: important in this game of high volatility. You can't worry
[15:30] Speaker 2: about being wrong in fantasy football, whether you're an analyst
[15:34] Speaker 2: or whether you're a manager. You're going to get stuff wrong.
[15:38] Speaker 2: What matters more is how you react to getting those
[15:41] Speaker 2: things wrong. Changing your opinion with new information, it's everything.
[15:46] Speaker 2: You can't be afraid to be wrong in this game.
[15:51] Speaker 2: This next question is from at Twippy OG. It says, JJ,
[15:54] Speaker 2: I'm confused on how to feel about Josh Jacobs going forward.
[15:57] Speaker 2: Curious if you see him as a hold or a
[15:59] Speaker 2: candidate to shop around since he does hold some risk.
[16:03] Speaker 2: So look, the Packers running back situation overall, not very strong.
[16:07] Speaker 2: Green Bay ranks bottom 10 in the league right now
[16:09] Speaker 2: and running back yards before contact per attempt, meaning they're
[16:12] Speaker 2: getting hit pretty close to the line of scrimmage. The
[16:15] Speaker 2: team backfield ranks 24th in expected PPR points. With that
[16:20] Speaker 2: being said, the running backs that they've been using are
[16:22] Speaker 2: legitimately brutal. Marshawn Lloyd is last in the league in
[16:25] Speaker 2: yards after contact per attempt among running backs with 25
[16:28] Speaker 2: or more carries. The team running backs, they rank fourth
[16:31] Speaker 2: lowest in the league in yards after contact per attempt.
[16:35] Speaker 2: They're fourth lowest in success rate, too. When you combine
[16:38] Speaker 2: those two categories, no team running backs are worse. But like,
[16:42] Speaker 2: this isn't a situation where the offense is just absolutely terrible.
[16:45] Speaker 2: Volume can solve a lot of these problems. You can
[16:48] Speaker 2: think of it this way. Josh Jacobs saw 74% of
[16:51] Speaker 2: Green Bay's backfield fantasy production last year in games played.
[16:55] Speaker 1: The year prior, closer to 68%. Right now, the.
[16:59] Speaker 2: Packers are at 19.1 expected PPR points per game as
[17:02] Speaker 2: a running back room. Like I said, that ranks 24th
[17:04] Speaker 2: in the league. The thing is, I'd imagine that expected
[17:07] Speaker 2: number increases a little bit because the Packers are going
[17:10] Speaker 2: to rely on Josh Jacobs more than those other running backs,
[17:13] Speaker 2: more than Marshawn Lloyd. So realistically, if he sees like 70%
[17:17] Speaker 2: of close to 20 expected PPR points per game, then
[17:20] Speaker 2: we're at about 14 PPR points per contest, expected PPR
[17:23] Speaker 2: points for Josh Jacobs.
[17:25] Speaker 1: That would put him right in mid-RB2 territory.
[17:28] Speaker 2: And that's where I had him ranked in my rest
[17:30] Speaker 2: of season rankings this week, as a mid-range RB2.
[17:34] Speaker 1: So we'll see.
[17:35] Speaker 2: I think the market actually is more bearish than where
[17:37] Speaker 2: I have Josh Jacobs ranked, at least versus the rankings
[17:40] Speaker 2: that I've compared him to. But I think overall right now,
[17:44] Speaker 2: this Jacobs situation, more of a hold than anything else.
[17:49] Speaker 2: The last question this week is from Twitter. It's from
[17:51] Speaker 2: at Dr.
[17:52] Speaker 1: Lubufu.
[17:53] Speaker 2: It says, which injured players are worth actively trading for?
[17:56] Speaker 2: Especially those that haven't played much, like Jordan Tyson, or
[17:59] Speaker 2: those who may not have a huge injury history, like
[18:02] Speaker 2: DJ Moore prior to this year.
[18:03] Speaker 1: Thanks as always.
[18:05] Speaker 2: So I think you can buy low on DJ Moore, yes. Managers,
[18:09] Speaker 2: they're probably pretty frustrated with him. He's left multiple games early.
[18:12] Speaker 2: He's obviously not been on the field a whole lot
[18:14] Speaker 2: this year. But he ranks in the top 15 in
[18:17] Speaker 2: PPR points per route run among wide receivers with 50
[18:20] Speaker 2: or more routes. His yards per route run is 11th.
[18:23] Speaker 2: His targets per route run is 9th. The peripherals are
[18:27] Speaker 2: absolutely there for DJ Moore. He just needs to stay
[18:29] Speaker 2: on the field. But do be aware that the Buffalo Bills,
[18:32] Speaker 2: they have a tough rest of season schedule for wide
[18:34] Speaker 2: receivers by adjusted points allowed. Another player though that you
[18:38] Speaker 2: could buy even lower, who fantasy managers are probably just
[18:41] Speaker 2: completely done with, is Ladd McConkie. Ladd has a yards
[18:46] Speaker 2: per out run rate of 2.20 this year. That's actually
[18:49] Speaker 2: pretty strong. It's top 30 in the league among 121
[18:53] Speaker 2: wide receivers with 50 or more routes run. And that's
[18:55] Speaker 2: in a really bad offense. He's 35th in PPR points per.
[18:59] Speaker 1: Route run among that group.
[19:02] Speaker 2: And the difference between him and some of the guys
[19:03] Speaker 2: that are ranked ahead of him is that his route
[19:05] Speaker 2: share is going to be better than a lot of
[19:07] Speaker 2: those players when he's healthy. Like we have some guys
[19:10] Speaker 2: like Josh Cameron, Darius Cooper, Taequann Thornton, even like Jalen
[19:13] Speaker 2: Knoll who are ranked ahead of him in PPR points
[19:16] Speaker 2: per route run. But those players likely won't match his
[19:19] Speaker 2: route share when he's healthy. You can think of it
[19:22] Speaker 2: this way. McConkie's averaging 0.43 PPR points per route run
[19:24] Speaker 2: this season. let's assume he has an 80% route share
[19:29] Speaker 2: and that he'd been healthy for all six games. At
[19:32] Speaker 2: 0.43 PPR points per route run and at that route share,
[19:36] Speaker 2: we're looking at about 12.6 PPR points per game for Ladd-McConkie.
[19:40] Speaker 2: That puts him firmly in like low-end wide receiver 2,
[19:43] Speaker 2: high-end wide receiver 3 range. And given the fact that
[19:46] Speaker 2: he's played a little bit banged up, it wouldn't be
[19:48] Speaker 2: surprising to expect those per-route run numbers to be a
[19:51] Speaker 2: little bit better when he's fully healthy. Not only that,
[19:55] Speaker 2: the Chargers offense can't get that much worse. So I
[19:58] Speaker 2: still think there's a legitimate chance for Ladd McConkie to
[20:01] Speaker 2: be a wide receiver 2 in fantasy. And you can
[20:03] Speaker 2: probably get him for a lot, lot cheaper than that.
[20:05] Speaker 2: He's concussed, yes, but the Chargers, they're also on bye
[20:08] Speaker 2: this week. He could easily be back after the bye.
[20:12] Speaker 2: And he might be easier to acquire right now because
[20:14] Speaker 2: they're on their bye. So DJ Moore, totally fine to
[20:18] Speaker 2: go with, but also don't sleep on Ladd McConkie. That's
[20:22] Speaker 2: it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you
[20:23] Speaker 2: for listening. If you haven't subscribed to the Late Round
[20:26] Speaker 2: Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are by searching for
[20:28] Speaker 2: it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. And don't
[20:31] Speaker 2: forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky
[20:33] Speaker 2: at LateRoundQB. Thanks for listening, everyone. As usual, 1 p.m.
[20:37] Speaker 2: Eastern on the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel. Myself,
[20:40] Speaker 2: David Kitchen, will be live with the Late Round Fantasy
[20:43] Speaker 2: Football show. And then later this morning, I'll be dropping
[20:46] Speaker 2: another episode of Late Round Perspectives. Thanks for listening this week, everyone.
[20:50] Speaker 2: Greatly appreciate you. Enjoy week seven, and I'll catch you
[20:53] Speaker 2: next week.

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