# The Show: Bounce-Back Candidates, Running Back Rooms, and More

An episode of [The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1224965828), 9 Jul 2026, 57 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0a233618-d694-4c81-a139-b34e00f98fb1/8de807de-d212-4c9e-89f1-b4810113d257/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=5747cc82-33a9-497c-8353-b34e00f98fbe

JJ and Kitchen talk about this week's news items, bounce-back candidates for 2026, some things to watch for in training camp, and more. ---------- All DraftKings Customers enter a lineup into the Best Ball $20 million Headliner Contest and receive a bonus ticket for a 2nd entry! Download the DraftKings app and sign up using https://bit.ly/LateRound2026 or promo code LATEROUND! The Crown is Yours! Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Help is available for problem gambling. Call (888) 789-7777 or visit ccpg.org (CT). 18+ in most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply. Void where prohibited. 1 per customer. Must enter a lineup into the NFL Best Ball $20M Headliner Contest. $25 entry fee. Bonus issued as 1 ticket to NFL Best Ball $20M Headliner Contest. Ticket reward is site credit valid for use only on NFL Best Ball $20M Headliner Contest. Ticket reward is single-use and expires at contest lock on 9/9/26. See terms at https://www.draftkings.com/promotions. Ends 9/9/26 at contest lock. Sponsored by DraftKings. #DKPartner See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: You're about to listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football show,
[0:02] Speaker 1: which originally aired on YouTube. If you'd like to catch
[0:05] Speaker 1: the show live this offseason, you can head to the
[0:07] Speaker 1: Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel YouTube dot com. Slash
[0:10] Speaker 1: at Late Round FF will be live each Wednesday at
[0:14] Speaker 1: newon Eastern without further ado, here's this week's.
[0:17] Speaker 2: Episode, Welcome In.
[0:31] Speaker 3: Welcome In.
[0:31] Speaker 4: David Kitchen ak a draft guide formatter with JJ zach
[0:40] Speaker 4: Reeson aka.
[0:44] Speaker 3: Draft Guide do it All or basically, I.
[0:48] Speaker 1: Just hope that it comes out when people read it.
[0:53] Speaker 1: How much time was spent on this thing. The amount
[0:58] Speaker 1: of messages I've sent Kitchen at like like one in
[1:02] Speaker 1: the morning over the last month has been pretty crazy.
[1:06] Speaker 5: Happened last night with Brandon.
[1:08] Speaker 1: I was sending him some messages last night.
[1:11] Speaker 3: Last night, actually thirty your time.
[1:14] Speaker 1: Yeah, And it's not it's not me saying I need
[1:16] Speaker 1: you to respond right now, but it's like this is
[1:18] Speaker 1: this is like something we got to deal with tomorrow morning,
[1:21] Speaker 1: right and it's just top of mind for me to
[1:23] Speaker 1: think about right now. And I hope, I look, I
[1:25] Speaker 1: hope it comes out, uh, you know, looking good in
[1:28] Speaker 1: the end, and that people appreciate it. And that's how
[1:31] Speaker 1: it's been historically, and I really appreciate that. But uh yeah,
[1:35] Speaker 1: I mean, look, it's it's a couple.
[1:36] Speaker 5: Of days away.
[1:38] Speaker 1: If you pre ordered, it'll be out tomorrow night. We
[1:40] Speaker 1: do that all the time. It's not even like a
[1:41] Speaker 1: secret anymore.
[1:42] Speaker 3: Oh boy, outside of the bag.
[1:45] Speaker 1: Yeah, so it'll be out July ninth night, right, so, uh,
[1:49] Speaker 1: be prepared for that. I don't know what time exactly.
[1:52] Speaker 1: We technically are not finished yet. There's still some stuff
[1:54] Speaker 1: that I want to add and change, you know before
[1:58] Speaker 1: you know that that shot clock exps.
[2:00] Speaker 4: But and the shot clock it's like a rebound. The
[2:03] Speaker 4: shot clock will reset every week because we're sending a
[2:07] Speaker 4: update every week. We're just getting all the offensive boards.
[2:11] Speaker 4: There's what nine of them something like that updates.
[2:14] Speaker 1: So well, uh yeah, we uh I'm excited for it
[2:19] Speaker 1: all to happen. You know, I'm not having to destroy
[2:23] Speaker 1: myself at this point anymore, which feels good. I got
[2:25] Speaker 1: vacation next week, which I'm excited about. So we will
[2:28] Speaker 1: not have a late round show next week. We should
[2:31] Speaker 1: throw that out there that we're not going to do
[2:32] Speaker 1: the show next week. You know, got got some stuff
[2:36] Speaker 1: done today, I got my ears cleaned. You ever get
[2:37] Speaker 1: your ears cleaned?
[2:39] Speaker 3: Oh?
[2:39] Speaker 4: I thought you were gonna say you get your ears lowered,
[2:41] Speaker 4: because we got some uh people in the chat saying
[2:44] Speaker 4: your your fresh cut is looking good.
[2:48] Speaker 5: A haircut for a while for a while. What did
[2:52] Speaker 5: you say?
[2:53] Speaker 3: You get your ears cleaned? Yeah?
[2:55] Speaker 1: I get my ear once a year, basically like where
[2:58] Speaker 1: they put water in and like chalg it.
[3:01] Speaker 5: Yeah, but this, this is this is a much this.
[3:03] Speaker 1: I go to an E n T once a year
[3:05] Speaker 1: to get my ear wax taken out because my ear
[3:07] Speaker 1: canals are so awful, and so I did that. I
[3:11] Speaker 1: did it today because I'm about to go on vacation.
[3:12] Speaker 1: I can't be underwater with my kids playing in the
[3:15] Speaker 1: pool and then the and at the beach and in
[3:17] Speaker 1: the ocean with ear wax all through my ear.
[3:21] Speaker 4: All the things that I thought would be discussed on
[3:24] Speaker 4: this show that was not one of them.
[3:27] Speaker 5: And then I came home, Yeah, this is my morning.
[3:29] Speaker 1: Talk to Brandon a little bit about some market score stuff,
[3:32] Speaker 1: got my ear well, drop the kids off first, talk
[3:35] Speaker 1: to Brandon about some market score stuff. Went and I
[3:37] Speaker 1: got my ears cleaned like a freaking dog, and then
[3:41] Speaker 1: got home and did a did a hit ride on Peloton.
[3:43] Speaker 1: I'll tell you what I did on Peloton today. Okay,
[3:45] Speaker 1: there were I was in a class a hit hit
[3:47] Speaker 1: hit in hills class. So I just wanted to do
[3:50] Speaker 1: a twenty minute, like all out kind of sprint type class, right,
[3:53] Speaker 1: And I was in there with eighty one other people
[3:57] Speaker 1: and at the end, I'm like, there's one person ahead
[4:00] Speaker 1: me and I can't let this happen. And so the
[4:02] Speaker 1: final forty seconds of this ride, I passed this person
[4:06] Speaker 1: in terms of output and I high five to them as.
[4:09] Speaker 3: I did it. Oh yeah, yeah, it felt pretty good.
[4:14] Speaker 3: I needed it.
[4:15] Speaker 5: I needed a w like that, you know, I just
[4:17] Speaker 5: needed it.
[4:18] Speaker 4: It's kind of petty, all right. We did talk about
[4:22] Speaker 4: the draft guide. I mean there is two hundred and
[4:26] Speaker 4: we I formatted some stuff last night. JJ. So it's
[4:29] Speaker 4: not two under senty five, it's who are seventy four?
[4:31] Speaker 4: Two unders twenty four pages?
[4:32] Speaker 1: Actually two seventy two now because I removed another couple
[4:35] Speaker 1: of things. Okay, but it might be added. It'll probably
[4:38] Speaker 1: be around two to seventy four.
[4:39] Speaker 3: Yeah, and again we're gonna be adding.
[4:41] Speaker 4: Uh. There will be an update tracker within the guy
[4:43] Speaker 4: where you can see all of the updates that are
[4:47] Speaker 4: being in there, and then you know as far as
[4:51] Speaker 4: how you can get it. You can purchase it at
[4:52] Speaker 4: lateround dot com or you can go to late Round
[4:55] Speaker 4: dot com and get the all Access membership and that
[4:58] Speaker 4: includes a Draft Guide WHI be in your downloads section
[5:03] Speaker 4: in the member hub.
[5:04] Speaker 5: One thing, one thing I want to add.
[5:05] Speaker 1: I think we should just shout this out right now
[5:07] Speaker 1: with the all access stuff, because we've gotten so many
[5:09] Speaker 1: people asking questions about it, and I think it's just
[5:11] Speaker 1: easy to blanket statement it here. When you sign up
[5:14] Speaker 1: for the all access here, you get it for three
[5:17] Speaker 1: hundred and sixty five days. It's not a season the
[5:20] Speaker 1: season type thing. It's not that you get it and
[5:22] Speaker 1: it ends January first because it's a new year.
[5:25] Speaker 5: So if you sign up today, you will have it.
[5:28] Speaker 1: For three hundred and sixty five days, which means you
[5:31] Speaker 1: get the Prospect Guide next year. That's part of it,
[5:34] Speaker 1: and you would hypothetically potentially get a draft guide again
[5:37] Speaker 1: next year, but you wouldn't get any the updates, et cetera,
[5:39] Speaker 1: et cetera.
[5:40] Speaker 5: So it's like you got to you know you.
[5:41] Speaker 3: Can if you canceled. This is what you're saying.
[5:44] Speaker 1: Right if you have to cancel, but hopefully you wouldn't, right. Hey,
[5:48] Speaker 1: that's that's that's the point.
[5:50] Speaker 3: Yeah, it's what you know.
[5:51] Speaker 4: People could theoretically, you know, quote unquote gain the system
[5:54] Speaker 4: by purchasing an all Access now to try to get
[5:56] Speaker 4: the Draft Guide next year. But it's up to us
[5:59] Speaker 4: to make sure they continue getting value, right exactly.
[6:01] Speaker 5: I'm not concerned about that.
[6:03] Speaker 1: The other thing too, is that people are like, hey,
[6:05] Speaker 1: I want to sign up for all Access, but I
[6:06] Speaker 1: already bought the Prospect Guide when it was Prospect Guide season. Well,
[6:09] Speaker 1: just you guys know, you get next year's Prospect Guide
[6:11] Speaker 1: if you sign up right now for all Access, because
[6:13] Speaker 1: it's a one year thing, so you would get the
[6:15] Speaker 1: Prospect Guide for next year.
[6:18] Speaker 5: It's all part of it.
[6:19] Speaker 1: You would obviously get the Prospect Guide for this year,
[6:21] Speaker 1: which some already have had, but you are buying into
[6:24] Speaker 1: the Prospect Guide for next year as well. It's not
[6:26] Speaker 1: that you're just getting the twenty twenty six version of
[6:29] Speaker 1: those guys.
[6:30] Speaker 3: Correct.
[6:31] Speaker 4: When to give a shout out to our sponsor, Draft Kings,
[6:34] Speaker 4: they have the Draft one, Get one, I mean with
[6:39] Speaker 4: July there's a lot of best ball stuff happening just
[6:42] Speaker 4: because you're waiting for redraft. It's a good time to
[6:47] Speaker 4: kind of get in there. So draft one, get one.
[6:50] Speaker 4: As far as the Millie goes, you can use promo
[6:52] Speaker 4: code late round. There's also a link in the description.
[6:56] Speaker 4: So we appreciate draft kings. And speaking of drafting's best fault, JJ,
[7:01] Speaker 4: you're doing streams. I'll be doing some streams next week
[7:04] Speaker 4: while you're out. As far as live drafts, so subscribe
[7:08] Speaker 4: to the YouTube channel.
[7:09] Speaker 5: Yeah, we could. Uh, I'll maybe do one, maybe do
[7:13] Speaker 5: one today. I shouldn't have said that.
[7:16] Speaker 3: No, don't do it today, just do it tomorrow. Do
[7:18] Speaker 3: it tomorrow.
[7:18] Speaker 5: I'll do one tomorrow. I'll do one tomorrow. Guys, so
[7:21] Speaker 5: be on the lookout.
[7:22] Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, yeah, that's why you turn on notifications. All right, JJ,
[7:26] Speaker 3: let's get into it. We got some news for this week,
[7:29] Speaker 3: today's fantasy news. Okay, I would not be doing my
[7:35] Speaker 3: job if I did not say the biggest news would
[7:39] Speaker 3: be the draft.
[7:39] Speaker 4: Guys coming out again July tenth, JJ, let out of
[7:44] Speaker 4: the bag July ninth.
[7:46] Speaker 1: I don't know if that's is that the biggest news
[7:48] Speaker 1: in the fantasy space though, after after what went down today,
[7:51] Speaker 1: Josh Norris and our Josh.
[7:55] Speaker 4: Yeah, there are some big news. I I meant to
[7:58] Speaker 4: talk to you about it beforehand. So why should we
[8:00] Speaker 4: do this because not just that, also Peter Shinky, who
[8:05] Speaker 4: is one of my favorite people in the space, it's
[8:08] Speaker 4: now the CEO of Fantasy Life. And then today they
[8:14] Speaker 4: announced that Josh and Hayden are going to be at Yahoo.
[8:20] Speaker 3: Yeah.
[8:21] Speaker 1: And the thing is, like, you can look at our
[8:23] Speaker 1: Twitter exchange right now. But like I after I had
[8:26] Speaker 1: left my old job, I was with FanDuel and they
[8:30] Speaker 1: had sponsored the show for a little while. I did
[8:32] Speaker 1: a year with Underdog. They had sponsored a show, and
[8:35] Speaker 1: obviously we've loved the last two. This is the second
[8:37] Speaker 1: year with DraftKings and it's been awesome, you know, doing
[8:40] Speaker 1: stuff with DraftKings, and hopefully it continues. But because of
[8:45] Speaker 1: other priorities, there really hasn't been that much opportunity to
[8:49] Speaker 1: work with Josh and Hayden. And I'm friends with both
[8:52] Speaker 1: of them, you know, Josh and I especially go way back,
[8:56] Speaker 1: and so I'm very excited that hopefully I'll be able
[9:00] Speaker 1: to you know, we'll be able to do more collabs
[9:02] Speaker 1: and stuff moving forward. Yeah, but congrats to them too.
[9:05] Speaker 1: That's that's the most important thing. They're they're two very
[9:08] Speaker 1: very good people, and they're really good at their job.
[9:09] Speaker 1: And I'm really happy that, you know, despite some moves
[9:13] Speaker 1: that went on at that half PPR company that uh,
[9:18] Speaker 1: that they were able to land on their feet and
[9:19] Speaker 1: have what seems like a really awesome gig.
[9:22] Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure, some great people there at Yahoo. Uh.
[9:26] Speaker 4: You know, we've got the Fantasy Football Expo coming up
[9:29] Speaker 4: and Matt Harmon is he tweeted out that he's going
[9:32] Speaker 4: to be at the Xbox. He was last year, So yeah,
[9:36] Speaker 4: maybe get some smoothies before Harmon.
[9:38] Speaker 1: Harmon and I every year at the expo were like,
[9:40] Speaker 1: I mean, you joined us last year, but we him
[9:42] Speaker 1: and I because we him and I basically like do
[9:44] Speaker 1: the same events because we're on like, you know, we
[9:46] Speaker 1: do like the King's Classic, and we go to some
[9:49] Speaker 1: of the fan related events and stuff. And I have
[9:52] Speaker 1: my car and he doesn't, and so I just show
[9:54] Speaker 1: fir him around. And you were you were part of
[9:55] Speaker 1: that experience last year with your first year at the expo.
[9:58] Speaker 3: Yeah, and we go to a smoothie place.
[10:01] Speaker 5: But no, it's not it's fine. It's fine.
[10:05] Speaker 4: It's like a chain smoothie place that had some fruit
[10:07] Speaker 4: flies last year.
[10:09] Speaker 1: Canton, Ohio. What do you expect from Canton, Ohio? No
[10:12] Speaker 1: offense to all the.
[10:13] Speaker 4: You know, please, let's not offend anybody. Let's get into
[10:18] Speaker 4: the first big I don't know, it was big. It
[10:21] Speaker 4: was big for me as a Eli Stowers fan boy
[10:24] Speaker 4: and someone who has plenty of bags hit the Stours.
[10:27] Speaker 4: Eli is the headline here because it appears that he
[10:32] Speaker 4: is like way behind the picking order of tight end
[10:36] Speaker 4: and this might be some good news for Dallas Goddard
[10:37] Speaker 4: as well.
[10:39] Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, we'll see, We'll see what ends up happening.
[10:42] Speaker 1: This isn't uncommon for tight ends. But also, you know,
[10:46] Speaker 1: I do want to throw out there that a lot
[10:48] Speaker 1: of people saw Stours as a better prospect. I mean, look,
[10:51] Speaker 1: we have no idea what's going to go on. I'm
[10:53] Speaker 1: just giving you guys the take of like what we
[10:55] Speaker 1: at late Round saw with these prospects during during draft season,
[11:00] Speaker 1: because a lot of you guys weren't even around during
[11:02] Speaker 1: draft season. But from a prospecting standpoint, the model did
[11:06] Speaker 1: like Kenyan Sadik quite a bit more than Eli Stowers.
[11:09] Speaker 1: Like it wasn't this interchangeable thing. Where uh Stowers was
[11:14] Speaker 1: clearly better. I thought Sto Wars was a really good
[11:16] Speaker 1: prospect and that, you know, when you look at like
[11:18] Speaker 1: production and athleticism, really not that far off if at all,
[11:22] Speaker 1: from Kenyan Sadik. But I would also say that you
[11:26] Speaker 1: have to factor in draft capital to some degree, and
[11:29] Speaker 1: so we did, like Sadik. More now, Sadiq hasn't been
[11:32] Speaker 1: able to find the field because he had to hernia surgery,
[11:34] Speaker 1: so we'll see what happens with all of that. But
[11:36] Speaker 1: yest Ours is dropping a ton in Best Ball right now.
[11:40] Speaker 1: I don't mind twentieth round Eli Stowers on DraftKings. Whenever
[11:43] Speaker 1: you have like a Jalen Hurts team, you know, like,
[11:45] Speaker 1: I think that's still totally defensible and fine because you
[11:49] Speaker 1: could not only get it in a four quarterback build
[11:51] Speaker 1: or sorry, four tight end build, but you could also
[11:54] Speaker 1: get you know, you're getting that correlation. You could see
[11:56] Speaker 1: a spike towards the end of the year as he
[11:58] Speaker 1: gets more acclimated to the game and such. So I'm
[12:01] Speaker 1: not like overly shocked by by you know, the reporting
[12:05] Speaker 1: and stuff. I also feel like maybe some of the
[12:08] Speaker 1: Philadelphia reports are not just have not been as bollish
[12:11] Speaker 1: on the rookies as much, and they're just being more
[12:14] Speaker 1: realistic as some other reports would be because rookies do
[12:17] Speaker 1: tend to be a little bit slower to get going,
[12:20] Speaker 1: you know, Like there's a lot of talk about Dontavian
[12:22] Speaker 1: Wicks playing ahead of Mikayle Lemon, and I think that's
[12:25] Speaker 1: could happen.
[12:26] Speaker 5: Very easily to start the season.
[12:27] Speaker 1: But we as fantasy managers have to think about not
[12:29] Speaker 1: just the start of the season, but how that season
[12:31] Speaker 1: might unfold. So yeah, I mean, like stours isn't something
[12:34] Speaker 1: that you should really care about from a redraft perspective
[12:37] Speaker 1: right now, a season long perspective, and then best ball,
[12:40] Speaker 1: if you want to throw that dart for a stack,
[12:41] Speaker 1: I still think it's it's viable.
[12:44] Speaker 3: Okay. Next item is the headline ties or like kissing
[12:48] Speaker 3: your Kirk Cousins. You ever heard the dadage ties like
[12:51] Speaker 3: kissing your cousin?
[12:53] Speaker 1: No, that sound sounds like a Tennessee thing, like like
[12:56] Speaker 1: I grew up in Tennessee type type adage.
[12:58] Speaker 3: Nobody wins, nobody loses.
[13:01] Speaker 4: But according to the Athletic Sam Warren, Cousins took all
[13:08] Speaker 4: the first team reps in offseason practices, looks like he
[13:12] Speaker 4: might be the starter there, Like what if he just
[13:15] Speaker 4: plays the whole season?
[13:18] Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's possible, but unlikely just because this
[13:21] Speaker 1: is not an abnormal situation for rookie quarterback to find
[13:25] Speaker 1: himself in. And every single year we do this and
[13:28] Speaker 1: the rookie quarterbacks starting by week seven. You know, I
[13:32] Speaker 1: still think Mendoza is gonna play this year because because
[13:34] Speaker 1: Vegas is more than likely not gonna be competitive, and
[13:38] Speaker 1: when they're not competitive, then we're gonna see Mendoza.
[13:41] Speaker 5: Now that being said, if.
[13:43] Speaker 1: Your expectation is that Mendoza is gonna be starting for
[13:46] Speaker 1: Vegas Week one, I think that's probably not gonna happen.
[13:49] Speaker 1: I think Kirk Cousins will be under center for them
[13:51] Speaker 1: to start the year. But uh yeah, I mean, like
[13:54] Speaker 1: I'm not I don't have these visions of the Raiders
[13:57] Speaker 1: being competitive this year. So we're gonna see Mendoza eventually,
[14:01] Speaker 1: and typically when that's the case, we see them sooner
[14:04] Speaker 1: than we think. It's just the way that you know,
[14:07] Speaker 1: there's there's pressures that come with it, and there's you know,
[14:10] Speaker 1: it's all like Cousins is unbelievable and like you can't
[14:13] Speaker 1: miss type talent, So I wouldn't be shocked if we
[14:15] Speaker 1: see Mendoza, you know, and like from like that week
[14:18] Speaker 1: six to ten Ranche. I don't know when their bye
[14:20] Speaker 1: week is though, because it's typically a point in time
[14:23] Speaker 1: when we would see that switch. It looks like week thirteen,
[14:29] Speaker 1: So it's that's not very convenient for you know, Mendoza
[14:33] Speaker 1: per se. But at the very least I think he's
[14:35] Speaker 1: going to be starting by the time that that by.
[14:37] Speaker 3: A week happens.
[14:38] Speaker 4: Yeah, it would be a playoff, fancy playoff starter, definitely
[14:43] Speaker 4: not in real life playoffs. Dan Duggan in The Athletic
[14:47] Speaker 4: he wrote an article previewing the Giants team camp and
[14:51] Speaker 4: he says that Tracy has an undefined role. So the
[14:56] Speaker 4: headline here is Tracy needs a dtr a defined a
[14:58] Speaker 4: relationship BO.
[15:00] Speaker 3: Maybe not the RB two there in New York.
[15:06] Speaker 5: I mean that would be pretty surprising.
[15:09] Speaker 1: It's a brand new, you know, uh coaching staff system,
[15:13] Speaker 1: et cetera. Tracy has more explosion than the other guys
[15:18] Speaker 1: in that backfield. The one thing I'll say about him though,
[15:22] Speaker 1: and look, I'm a truther, like I liked him coming out.
[15:24] Speaker 1: I was in I was in on him, you know,
[15:26] Speaker 1: his rookie season and and uh and so on. But
[15:30] Speaker 1: I think that we have to be realistic in that,
[15:32] Speaker 1: Like there are players like him who come out as
[15:34] Speaker 1: these tweeeners who look really good as pass catchers because
[15:38] Speaker 1: they were wide receiver converts, but that doesn't mean that
[15:41] Speaker 1: they're necessarily good pass catchers at the NFL level or
[15:43] Speaker 1: automatically means the good pass catchers at the NFL level.
[15:47] Speaker 1: Tyrone Tracy has not been that efficient as a pass
[15:49] Speaker 1: catcher and Cam Skataboo last year, which, by the way,
[15:52] Speaker 1: spoiler alert, you know, just a little tease, I have
[15:56] Speaker 1: Cam Skataboo as a player to target in this year's draft.
[15:59] Speaker 3: Guy.
[15:59] Speaker 5: I think that.
[16:01] Speaker 1: In season long leagues where you can get him in
[16:04] Speaker 1: like the late fourth, let's say, fifth round or something.
[16:06] Speaker 1: Because of this injury, if he were completely healthy and
[16:09] Speaker 1: we I had this conversation with nez On' becoming a
[16:11] Speaker 1: best ball bro, but if camp Scatabu were completely healthy,
[16:15] Speaker 1: he'd be like a round two three turn.
[16:17] Speaker 5: Type player based on his usage last year and based
[16:19] Speaker 5: on how.
[16:20] Speaker 1: He was scoring over nineteen BPR points per game before
[16:23] Speaker 1: the injury happened last year and after week one where
[16:25] Speaker 1: he just didn't get that much run. And if you
[16:28] Speaker 1: think about the mentality that you know harbab brings, it's
[16:32] Speaker 1: gonna be more of that, like hard nosed physical style
[16:34] Speaker 1: of play. And I mean Camp Scataboo. There's no player
[16:37] Speaker 1: in the league at running back that fits that more.
[16:40] Speaker 1: So I think that as long as he's fine enough,
[16:43] Speaker 1: even if he's ninety percent, he's gonna get a big
[16:45] Speaker 1: workload in my opinion. The Tyrone Tracy thing though, is
[16:48] Speaker 1: like I think he compliments Cam Skataboo really well, so
[16:51] Speaker 1: I still think he's gonna end up being RB two.
[16:54] Speaker 5: But yeah, I mean, like I think that this just
[16:57] Speaker 5: makes me feel even.
[16:58] Speaker 1: A little bit more bullish about Skataboo and what they're
[17:01] Speaker 1: how they're feeling about him and what that could look
[17:03] Speaker 1: like this season.
[17:05] Speaker 4: Okay, next is the Woody Buzz little toy story words there.
[17:12] Speaker 3: Cute, Yeah, thank you.
[17:14] Speaker 4: Woody Marks is getting used to his role as a
[17:18] Speaker 4: third down pass catching guy, working on receiving and returning kicks.
[17:26] Speaker 4: I'm not sure how this how this plays into the
[17:30] Speaker 4: RB two stuff that you've been talking about.
[17:33] Speaker 1: JJ, I really didn't think that I would be in
[17:37] Speaker 1: at all or higher than the market on David Montgomery.
[17:40] Speaker 5: And I'm not in Best Ball.
[17:42] Speaker 1: I haven't really drafted that much David Montgomery in Best
[17:45] Speaker 1: Ball this season. I have, I've drafted some, but I'm
[17:47] Speaker 1: probably gonna be at like, you know, for Best Ball
[17:49] Speaker 1: bros out there, like three percent David Montgomery, you know,
[17:53] Speaker 1: nothing substantial. But it's really odd because I feel like
[17:56] Speaker 1: David Montgomery is the kind of player that would look
[17:58] Speaker 1: really good in the season long world where ADP would
[18:02] Speaker 1: really favor him, just because he's a player who is
[18:05] Speaker 1: projected to get a lot of volume, even though maybe
[18:07] Speaker 1: the talent level isn't like obscene and it's not like
[18:10] Speaker 1: an unbelievably great environment. Although I do think that the
[18:12] Speaker 1: offensive line is gonna be better for Houston this year.
[18:15] Speaker 1: But I'm like three I'm like three spots above market
[18:19] Speaker 1: season long market with my my David Montgomery rank right now.
[18:22] Speaker 1: So that was a little odd and I want to
[18:24] Speaker 1: at least throw that out there. It makes me feel,
[18:27] Speaker 1: you know, with the woody marks stuff like in the end,
[18:31] Speaker 1: when we look back on this season, I think that
[18:32] Speaker 1: there is at least a chance I'm not saying we're
[18:34] Speaker 1: projecting it that way, that he is just expensive Leaquin Allen,
[18:39] Speaker 1: you know, like, I think that that's like a range
[18:42] Speaker 1: of outcomes possibility for what he marks, because he he
[18:46] Speaker 1: did not go read his prospect profile in the Prospect
[18:49] Speaker 1: Guided last year. Nothing about his profile screamed belcow back, right,
[18:55] Speaker 1: and you know, he was kind of by default as
[18:58] Speaker 1: to why he was getting some of that work last year.
[19:01] Speaker 1: And then they go out and they get David Montgomery.
[19:03] Speaker 1: And we know Montgomery can handle a big workload and
[19:05] Speaker 1: he's not the sexiest back, but David Montgomery is the
[19:08] Speaker 1: guy that if you you know, need to hit a
[19:11] Speaker 1: single or a double, you can get a single or double.
[19:12] Speaker 1: You're not going to hit a home run with David
[19:14] Speaker 1: Montgomery more than likely, right, But sometimes that's okay for
[19:17] Speaker 1: certain team builds, you know. And so that's why I
[19:20] Speaker 1: think the ranking is showing what it's showing. But I
[19:23] Speaker 1: just am not impressed by Woody marks as like a runner.
[19:25] Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, like his pass catching chops were
[19:28] Speaker 1: very real in college and they just for whatever reason,
[19:32] Speaker 1: didn't really deploy him that way last year. And so
[19:35] Speaker 1: I'm not that surprised that like they're seeing that vision
[19:38] Speaker 1: now because that's the kind of player that Woody marks is.
[19:41] Speaker 4: The kickoff return gives me a little bit of concern
[19:44] Speaker 4: just because it seems like he was in the Blue
[19:45] Speaker 4: tent every week last last year.
[19:50] Speaker 5: It's like the Deontay Johnson thing.
[19:51] Speaker 1: It's like every single time Deontay Johnson had a game,
[19:54] Speaker 1: he would get hurt on like the first drud Jalen
[19:56] Speaker 1: Wattles kind of like that too. But Woody Marx last
[19:59] Speaker 1: year was it was crazy. I think someone did the
[20:02] Speaker 1: analysis in like eight of the of their games or something.
[20:05] Speaker 5: He found himself in the blue tent at one point.
[20:07] Speaker 5: It was it was wild.
[20:09] Speaker 3: Okay, uh.
[20:11] Speaker 4: Moving on to another potential RB two snip Snap Chris
[20:15] Speaker 4: Rodriguez saw beat beat reporters saying that he expects Chris
[20:21] Speaker 4: Rodriguez to carve out a big role. That was the
[20:25] Speaker 4: headline and wrote a world I just I don't know.
[20:30] Speaker 3: This train. This Chris Rodriguez base Shall Tuton train, I don't.
[20:35] Speaker 3: I don't know where it leads to JJ.
[20:37] Speaker 1: Yeah, well all roads generally lead to base Shall Tutin.
[20:42] Speaker 5: I'll say that first look.
[20:45] Speaker 1: I sent this tweet whenever the Chris Rodriguez buzz in
[20:50] Speaker 1: the Fantasy space was starting. After that signing where people
[20:53] Speaker 1: were like, you know, it was very much at that
[20:55] Speaker 1: point like, oh, I'm I like Chris Rodriguez more than
[20:57] Speaker 1: ba Shall Tutin, you know, is very much a split. Now,
[21:01] Speaker 1: obviously we see ADP right now where I think ADP
[21:03] Speaker 1: where Chris Rodriguez goes totally fine. I've taken them in
[21:07] Speaker 1: Best Ball drafts like I think it's it's a fine
[21:09] Speaker 1: spot when you consider the offensive environment. I think base
[21:12] Speaker 1: Shall Tutin is in a fine spot. Tutin's actually even
[21:15] Speaker 1: more appealing in season long for the record, when you
[21:17] Speaker 1: look at season long ADP versus what we're seeing within
[21:20] Speaker 1: Best Ball. Well, that being said, and I'm gonna say
[21:23] Speaker 1: the same thing about a player that we're going to
[21:25] Speaker 1: talk to or talk about in a second, but you
[21:29] Speaker 1: have to beware of beat reports when it comes to
[21:32] Speaker 1: the running back position because oftentimes they're so much more
[21:36] Speaker 1: focused on attempts than they are targets and looks out
[21:40] Speaker 1: of the backfield through the air.
[21:41] Speaker 5: And as Goadula pointed out on the show on.
[21:44] Speaker 1: The RB two rebirth that we did, you know a
[21:46] Speaker 1: couple of days ago, a target is so much more
[21:50] Speaker 1: valuable than a rush atempt at the running back position
[21:53] Speaker 1: in fantasy football, we're talking like two two and a
[21:54] Speaker 1: half times as valuable as a rush attempt is. And
[21:59] Speaker 1: so when a the reporter says, this guy's gonna get
[22:01] Speaker 1: a lot of work, Okay, well what does that work
[22:03] Speaker 1: actually look like when you're looking at like weighted opportunity
[22:07] Speaker 1: from a fantasy football perspective. And with Chris Rodriguez, I
[22:11] Speaker 1: still have the exact same take that I had after
[22:14] Speaker 1: he signed there, which is the dude does not catch passes.
[22:18] Speaker 5: He didn't do it in college, he has not done
[22:20] Speaker 5: it in the NFL.
[22:21] Speaker 1: And I did a mailback episode and I looked back
[22:24] Speaker 1: at players who started their first few years in their
[22:26] Speaker 1: NFL career with fewer than twenty receptions, fewer than ten
[22:29] Speaker 1: receptions and very rarely, I mean where he's at reception wise.
[22:34] Speaker 1: We don't see players pan out and give us like,
[22:37] Speaker 1: you know, legitimate RB two seasons. But even at like
[22:41] Speaker 1: twenty receptions across the first three years, I think it
[22:44] Speaker 1: was like we had like mark Ingram at one point
[22:47] Speaker 1: do something like that where you know, like like he
[22:51] Speaker 1: didn't he started off a little bit cold with his
[22:54] Speaker 1: reception totals and then you know, became something relatively significant
[22:58] Speaker 1: in fantasy football. But like Rodriguez has played three NFL
[23:02] Speaker 1: seasons and he has six.
[23:04] Speaker 5: Receptions, Like it is.
[23:08] Speaker 1: You can say what you want about Liam Cohen and
[23:09] Speaker 1: his tie to him, But like I said on this show,
[23:12] Speaker 1: when the JK. Dobbins reports were coming out, saying that
[23:15] Speaker 1: the Jags wanted JK Dobbins to me, that says Chris
[23:19] Speaker 1: Rodriguez wasn't a priority for the Jags this offseason and
[23:23] Speaker 1: he was a backup plan because they wanted JK. Dobbins
[23:26] Speaker 1: to compliment base Jall Tooton, which makes sense because it's
[23:29] Speaker 1: another early down guy who hasn't proven to be anything significant.
[23:33] Speaker 5: As a pass catcher.
[23:35] Speaker 1: And so I still think that the upside which is
[23:38] Speaker 1: what we should be chasing, especially in season long, where
[23:42] Speaker 1: you can make up for the mistake and such like.
[23:44] Speaker 5: It's a little bit different in best ball.
[23:46] Speaker 1: If you want to say the opportunity cost is really big,
[23:48] Speaker 1: I'll just take a little bit of a safer option
[23:50] Speaker 1: in that round five range.
[23:52] Speaker 5: Fine, that's fine.
[23:53] Speaker 1: I'm not like massively high on Tuton in best ball,
[23:57] Speaker 1: but I think in season.
[23:58] Speaker 5: Long, you just go for it.
[24:00] Speaker 1: You go for the guy who has has a legitimate
[24:02] Speaker 1: top fifteen running back upside in fantasy football, which is
[24:06] Speaker 1: what base Shall Tuton has, and you're drafting him as
[24:09] Speaker 1: a high end RB three in season long like across
[24:13] Speaker 1: every platform. So, uh, Rodriguez is fine. But as I said,
[24:18] Speaker 1: when this signing happens, drafting Chris rodri preferring Chris Rodriguez
[24:23] Speaker 1: over base Shall Tutan is it's a five condom choice.
[24:26] Speaker 5: That's That's what I had tweeted.
[24:29] Speaker 3: All right.
[24:30] Speaker 4: From that to this Ben Solak, who's we get to
[24:34] Speaker 4: meet at the Super Bowl? Great at ESPN, he had
[24:41] Speaker 4: his breakout canits for each team and there are.
[24:46] Speaker 3: Some tight ends on this list.
[24:47] Speaker 1: Oh here we go. I let me guess one of them.
[24:49] Speaker 1: Can I just guess one of them? Because that is
[24:50] Speaker 1: why you're bringing it up?
[24:51] Speaker 5: Ready, ready, gunner Helm is one of them.
[24:55] Speaker 3: There are three. Gunner Helm is one of them. I
[24:58] Speaker 3: did not you see on this list.
[25:00] Speaker 4: So it's highlighted in orange because the one I wanted
[25:04] Speaker 4: to talk about was Eric All for Cincinnati.
[25:08] Speaker 3: It kind of surprised me.
[25:10] Speaker 5: It's interesting, yeah.
[25:11] Speaker 4: Yeah, said that he's kind of a big, explosive tight
[25:15] Speaker 4: end and he out snapped is Sicky in five of
[25:18] Speaker 4: the nine games last year and looked for him to
[25:21] Speaker 4: coming off injury to kind of be in in that role.
[25:26] Speaker 3: Also, A. J.
[25:27] Speaker 4: Barner was the third tight end, but yes, JJ gunner
[25:30] Speaker 4: Helm was on that list.
[25:33] Speaker 1: So yeah, well the Eric Also Eric all didn't play
[25:35] Speaker 1: last him in twenty twenty four is rookie season because
[25:37] Speaker 1: he got hurt and then just didn't play last year.
[25:41] Speaker 1: But yeah, like I understand the They also drafted I
[25:46] Speaker 1: can't remember the tight end off the top of my
[25:48] Speaker 1: head right now, but a guy that the Model didn't
[25:50] Speaker 1: really mind that much from what Hibner wasn't. No, that
[25:54] Speaker 1: was the Ravens anyway, but they did get somebody. I'm
[25:58] Speaker 1: just I'm just blanking right now. I mean a brain
[26:00] Speaker 1: fart live on air. Uh, But yeah, I mean, like
[26:04] Speaker 1: I think the Eric All one is a little bit
[26:05] Speaker 1: of a deep cut.
[26:06] Speaker 5: We'll see what happens with him returning.
[26:08] Speaker 1: I still think Kasicki will probably be more of the
[26:11] Speaker 1: primary pass catching tight end, but in dynasty leagues, like
[26:15] Speaker 1: don't forget about them in deep ones and deep yeah injuries,
[26:18] Speaker 1: that's right, injuries, jack, Yeah, But in like, the Model
[26:22] Speaker 1: didn't really mind him that much based on on where
[26:25] Speaker 1: that draft capital was, But yeah, that's a that's a
[26:28] Speaker 1: very interesting name that no one in the fantasy space
[26:31] Speaker 1: is currently like I've been. I have him on a
[26:33] Speaker 1: lot of Dynasty rosters, Eric All, I've just been kind
[26:35] Speaker 1: of stashing him, but I've even dropped him. I dropped
[26:38] Speaker 1: him in one because I just needed space and there
[26:40] Speaker 1: just wasn't that available for me. And you know, it
[26:43] Speaker 1: was a little bit shallower. So I would be kind
[26:45] Speaker 1: of upset from that perspective if Eric Hall breaks out.
[26:51] Speaker 4: Yeah, we did have a good profile yet Scott said,
[26:55] Speaker 4: holy undertaker meme to all my air called Dynasty bags.
[26:58] Speaker 5: Yeah, exactly comes out.
[27:00] Speaker 1: That was not a name that I expected to like.
[27:02] Speaker 1: Like a Gunner Hell makes sense, you know, the A J.
[27:05] Speaker 5: Barner.
[27:05] Speaker 1: You know, he had a role last year, and he
[27:07] Speaker 1: makes sense because I think Seattle's gonna throw it a
[27:08] Speaker 1: little bit more and stuff. But Eric All is a
[27:12] Speaker 1: deep cut and that's why we like That's why we
[27:14] Speaker 1: like Solacs because he's he's thinking a little bit deeper
[27:17] Speaker 1: than most.
[27:18] Speaker 4: Speaking of tight ends, Craft, Tucker Craft might be ready
[27:23] Speaker 4: for training camp, not just week one, but training camp.
[27:27] Speaker 4: If so, that would be welcome news to Packers fans
[27:33] Speaker 4: and just Green Bay offense fans for fantasy, I.
[27:36] Speaker 1: Think I have Craft a tight end five right now,
[27:38] Speaker 1: right after the big four. I have him, and then
[27:41] Speaker 1: Fannin and Pitts and Laporta you know after, you know
[27:45] Speaker 1: as the next four.
[27:46] Speaker 5: But look, Kraft is one of those players where you
[27:51] Speaker 5: definitely can't assume regression for him because he might just
[27:56] Speaker 5: be George Kittle, light like and light right like. He
[28:00] Speaker 5: just he might be one of those guys it's just
[28:02] Speaker 5: really good in you yards per target, just amazing after
[28:05] Speaker 5: the catch, and I think in this environment there's a
[28:08] Speaker 5: lot to like about that. The one downside.
[28:11] Speaker 1: Risk with Tucker Craft is the Packers often don't get
[28:16] Speaker 1: their pass catchers enough routes, and I'm a little bit afraid,
[28:21] Speaker 1: like that's one of the main reasons I think Trey
[28:23] Speaker 1: McBride is scary this year because he ran so many
[28:26] Speaker 1: routes last year and without those routes, Like if I
[28:30] Speaker 1: did some analysis in the draft guide with this, but
[28:33] Speaker 1: if this is just a general idea of like why
[28:35] Speaker 1: we care about routes run, you know at tight end,
[28:38] Speaker 1: especially because tight end is one where tight ends are
[28:41] Speaker 1: not running routes on ninety five percent of the dropbacks
[28:45] Speaker 1: that frequently, and so like Trey McBride last year, if
[28:49] Speaker 1: you were to regress and take down his routes run
[28:52] Speaker 1: number to just the number two tight end in the league,
[28:54] Speaker 1: which I think was Travis Kelce and routes run, he
[28:57] Speaker 1: would have scored like three and a half fewer PPR
[28:59] Speaker 1: points game Trey McBride based on his Fantasy points per
[29:02] Speaker 1: route run numbers.
[29:04] Speaker 5: And so there's a lot.
[29:06] Speaker 1: To buy into from a route's run perspective and the
[29:11] Speaker 1: way Green Bay runs their offense. It's a little bit
[29:14] Speaker 1: scary with Tucker Craft and he's coming off the injury
[29:16] Speaker 1: still and maybe they limit him a little bit to
[29:19] Speaker 1: ramp up to start the year, but he's a beast.
[29:22] Speaker 1: I don't think you should be fading Tucker Craft like
[29:24] Speaker 1: I'm I'm I'm not like hardcore in you know, but
[29:29] Speaker 1: I'm not out on Craft this year.
[29:30] Speaker 5: I think he's fine. Where he goes shout.
[29:33] Speaker 3: Out to Zayn Denanni. We've talked about him on the.
[29:36] Speaker 4: Show, but he had a couple of good tweets where
[29:41] Speaker 4: he takes a look at like the insiders and what
[29:43] Speaker 4: they're saying and brings it to the masses.
[29:44] Speaker 3: On x Donani zayn is is his handle there on X.
[29:49] Speaker 4: But he said the TLDR and the Vikings running back
[29:53] Speaker 4: Jordan Mason Aaron Jones, that this is Jordan Mason's back
[29:56] Speaker 4: build and Aaron Jones will mainly spell and eat in
[29:59] Speaker 4: two pass owns. Yeah, that's that's a big revelation for us.
[30:04] Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, look, I had Aaron Jones.
[30:05] Speaker 1: I've made that gap in my rankings so much smaller
[30:10] Speaker 1: as the weeks have gone on the summer if people
[30:12] Speaker 1: have been kind of monitoring that, and I actually right
[30:14] Speaker 1: now in half PPR have Jordan Mason a little bit
[30:16] Speaker 1: ahead of Aaron Jones. And this is I've been very
[30:19] Speaker 1: anti Jordan Mason historically. The reason this is different than
[30:24] Speaker 1: the Chris Rodriguez situation is because you have a potential
[30:27] Speaker 1: ascending talent. I'm not saying it's a lock, but a
[30:30] Speaker 1: potential ascending talent in base Shall Tuton that Chris Rodriguez
[30:34] Speaker 1: is competing with versus a guy in Jordan Mason who's
[30:38] Speaker 1: competing with an aged you know, uh, Aaron. I I
[30:41] Speaker 1: love Aaron Jones, but an aged Aaron Jones who might
[30:44] Speaker 1: not be able to carry a big workload. And there
[30:46] Speaker 1: are way more question marks about Jones than there is
[30:48] Speaker 1: bay Shall Tuton. So there's a lot bigger of a
[30:51] Speaker 1: discrepancy in the talent that they're competing with.
[30:54] Speaker 5: And then you look at Demon.
[30:55] Speaker 1: Claiborne, who they drafted, and Claiborne is someone that and
[31:00] Speaker 1: I talked about this on becoming a best ball bro
[31:02] Speaker 1: if anyone listens to that, I'm just kind of reiterating
[31:04] Speaker 1: what I said there. But Claiborne is more of an
[31:07] Speaker 1: Aaron Jones type back where he's you know, Jones is
[31:11] Speaker 1: bigger than Claiborne, but Claiborne's undersized and he's speedy, and
[31:15] Speaker 1: he's a I mean not that Jones is like this
[31:17] Speaker 1: like hyper speed guy and super agile, but he's very
[31:20] Speaker 1: good as a receiver. And Claiborne is a receiving back
[31:24] Speaker 1: that that's really what teams were looking at him for
[31:28] Speaker 1: and why they likely drafted him. He's not this like
[31:30] Speaker 1: bellcal type back. And so just by default, I think
[31:33] Speaker 1: Jordan Mason could easily walk into two hundred carries this
[31:36] Speaker 1: year because this backfield, like, I think that we're gonna
[31:39] Speaker 1: see Minnesota with better game scripts because they no longer
[31:41] Speaker 1: are going to use JJ McCarthy. The offense should just
[31:44] Speaker 1: be better in general. That could just lead to more
[31:47] Speaker 1: running back volume, and that could lead to Jordan Mason
[31:50] Speaker 1: getting more work. And you know, this is not the
[31:52] Speaker 1: type of running back that I typically draft in season long,
[31:55] Speaker 1: so this is definitely more of a best ball take.
[31:57] Speaker 1: You know, people get this backwards a lot where they
[31:59] Speaker 1: think that like better and best ball means the players
[32:02] Speaker 1: who are just really high ceiling, but it's really you're
[32:04] Speaker 1: just buying points in different parts of the draft. And
[32:06] Speaker 1: I think right now where Jordan Mason is going, you're
[32:09] Speaker 1: attaching him to what could be a good offense given
[32:11] Speaker 1: Kevin O'Connell, and you know Kyler Murray being there.
[32:14] Speaker 5: And then on top of it, and it's a double
[32:16] Speaker 5: ditch round pick.
[32:17] Speaker 1: And on top of that, you know right now, even
[32:20] Speaker 1: on a full PPR platform, that Jordan Mason is gonna
[32:23] Speaker 1: see work like, he's gonna get some production.
[32:26] Speaker 5: He's probably gonna have some spiked weeks.
[32:28] Speaker 1: And you know, I don't think he's a good pass
[32:30] Speaker 1: catcher because he's never proven to be a good pass catcher,
[32:32] Speaker 1: so I don't want to project that, but I do
[32:34] Speaker 1: think that maybe he could see a modest bump.
[32:36] Speaker 5: In target share just based on what they have competition wise.
[32:39] Speaker 1: So I'm having I'm a little bit more open minded
[32:43] Speaker 1: that because I think what I've done in the past
[32:47] Speaker 1: is completely from a process perspective, is completely close off
[32:51] Speaker 1: this kind of archetype, despite it that the cost being appealing.
[32:57] Speaker 1: Right last year, I didn't I faded George Mason because
[33:00] Speaker 1: his cost was like round seven. It was way too
[33:03] Speaker 1: expensive for a guy who didn't catch passes. But now
[33:05] Speaker 1: it's like round eleven, round twelve, if not later in
[33:07] Speaker 1: season long leagues. And this is where I just should
[33:11] Speaker 1: no longer have a hard stance about fading a player
[33:15] Speaker 1: because there is still an out where he sees a
[33:18] Speaker 1: seven percent target share, a six percent target share, and
[33:21] Speaker 1: maybe he just runs hot on the ground and he
[33:23] Speaker 1: has a decent amount of rushing touchdowns, and he's a
[33:26] Speaker 1: Javonte Williams type, right, Like, That's what I made the
[33:30] Speaker 1: mistake of with Javonte Williams last year was this very
[33:34] Speaker 1: similar ish archetype and profile. And you know, Javonte Williams is
[33:37] Speaker 1: better in pass pro and a better receiver and had
[33:40] Speaker 1: a better backbone as a prospect.
[33:41] Speaker 5: But Jordan Mason's.
[33:43] Speaker 1: Done something in the NFL, and so I'm trying not
[33:46] Speaker 1: to like hardcore fade this. I'm actually to this point
[33:50] Speaker 1: like I'm higher than the market on Jordan Mason, and
[33:52] Speaker 1: I never thought that would be the case.
[33:53] Speaker 5: But I'm just playing the cost game. I'm playing the
[33:55] Speaker 5: ADP game here.
[33:57] Speaker 3: Okay.
[33:58] Speaker 4: On the last news item is again the talking point
[34:03] Speaker 4: between running backs. Something that we're looking for this is
[34:08] Speaker 4: Zane's take on what to watch in camp said, it
[34:13] Speaker 4: sounds like there's a shot for Trayvon Henderson to earn
[34:17] Speaker 4: more versus Ramondre Stevenson. So basically they're gonna be splitting reps.
[34:22] Speaker 4: But something to watch for in camp is how they
[34:24] Speaker 4: do it, because there's an opportunity for Trayvon to begin
[34:27] Speaker 4: to take over.
[34:29] Speaker 1: Yeah, my stance on this is I think ADP's already
[34:33] Speaker 1: reflected this, so it doesn't really change that that much.
[34:38] Speaker 1: You know, I think Remondre is the better value between
[34:40] Speaker 1: the two, just because there's a bigger opportunity cost with
[34:42] Speaker 1: with Travion, and you know, you can look at where Ramondre.
[34:45] Speaker 5: Goes in Best Ball. He's even cheaper and season long.
[34:48] Speaker 1: Just based on some of the ADP sources that I've
[34:50] Speaker 1: been looking at because in the draft guid I'm really
[34:52] Speaker 1: trying to pinpoint like, hey, if you drafting on ESPN,
[34:56] Speaker 1: you know, Quentin Johnson right now is past wide receiver
[34:58] Speaker 1: fifty on ESPN, which is crazy me.
[35:00] Speaker 4: Uh.
[35:00] Speaker 1: And then you know, same thing with with like Yahoo
[35:03] Speaker 1: or wherever you're playing. I'm trying to call that out
[35:06] Speaker 1: on here. Every time I say Yahoo Kitchen, Kitchen loves
[35:10] Speaker 1: to smirk and be like, you did it again.
[35:13] Speaker 3: You said it that time you say, oh.
[35:14] Speaker 5: I try to now now I now I just play
[35:17] Speaker 5: into the bid.
[35:19] Speaker 1: But uh, but yeah, over on Yahoo, Ramondre, you know
[35:24] Speaker 1: might or uh, you know, you might see different ADPs.
[35:27] Speaker 1: And then I'm trying to reflect that in the uh
[35:29] Speaker 1: in the draft guide.
[35:30] Speaker 5: But yeah, I mean.
[35:31] Speaker 1: Look, I think the report when I was looking at
[35:33] Speaker 1: it was very mostly like, hey, if Trayvon Henderson gets
[35:36] Speaker 1: better at the things that he was bad at last year,
[35:38] Speaker 1: he's gonna get more work.
[35:39] Speaker 5: And I think we all know that, right. But in
[35:41] Speaker 5: the end, uh, you know what will go down.
[35:44] Speaker 1: Is there's still gonna be probably a shorter leash than
[35:46] Speaker 1: we would like with Henderson.
[35:48] Speaker 5: I'm I'm not betting on the.
[35:51] Speaker 1: Henderson breakout to happen this year. But I'm definitely not
[35:55] Speaker 1: against drafting him. You know, I'm just very neutral with
[35:57] Speaker 1: my Henderson's stance. I like I like Remandre because you know,
[36:01] Speaker 1: New England's going to face a tougher schedule and when
[36:04] Speaker 1: that happens, they're gonna want somebody. And if they have
[36:07] Speaker 1: more negative game scripts, you know, you might think, oh,
[36:09] Speaker 1: get the dynamic pass catching Henderson out there. But Ramandre
[36:13] Speaker 1: Stevenson is is safer in pass pro and he's you know,
[36:16] Speaker 1: capable of playing that role, and so I think that
[36:19] Speaker 1: they might just lean on that, especially early on in
[36:21] Speaker 1: the season. You know, maybe it starts to transfer and
[36:24] Speaker 1: move and trade me on's direction as the season goes on,
[36:28] Speaker 1: But that's when you can maybe, you know, like if
[36:30] Speaker 1: you listen to fifteen transactions, we can maybe make some
[36:32] Speaker 1: deals and flip remandree at the at the right time.
[36:37] Speaker 3: Okay, let's get into today's data. Today's data.
[36:46] Speaker 4: All right, we've got positional rank change between scoring settings.
[36:50] Speaker 3: JJ tell us what we're looking at here.
[36:53] Speaker 1: Every year, we get tons and tons of emails from
[36:57] Speaker 1: people in August in late July and they're like, hey,
[37:00] Speaker 1: did your draft guide give us full PPR rankings or
[37:03] Speaker 1: half PPR rankings or both. And my stance is always, guys,
[37:09] Speaker 1: you're overrating the difference between full and half PPR.
[37:12] Speaker 5: You just are right.
[37:14] Speaker 1: Not only are these numbers, looking at it in hindsight
[37:17] Speaker 1: where Jamal williams seventeen touchdown season is captured in this data,
[37:23] Speaker 1: so obviously that was a really funky, weird season. When
[37:25] Speaker 1: we're projecting, we see very very little difference from half
[37:30] Speaker 1: to full PPR. Obviously from full to standard you're gonna
[37:34] Speaker 1: see more of a difference. But if you do half
[37:36] Speaker 1: PPR rankings and if you're looking at half PPR rankings,
[37:39] Speaker 1: what this shows you is that when you look at
[37:41] Speaker 1: running backs from half to full PPR in the way
[37:45] Speaker 1: that they actually performed, I'm not looking at projections. I'm
[37:47] Speaker 1: looking at how they actually performed. Thirty two percent of
[37:50] Speaker 1: them don't see a rank change when they finished in
[37:54] Speaker 1: the top twenty fourth the position. They don't see a
[37:57] Speaker 1: rank change in PPR points per game versus half PPR
[38:00] Speaker 1: points per game thirty two percent of them do. Another
[38:02] Speaker 1: thirty two percent only see a change in positional finish
[38:06] Speaker 1: of one or of just one spot. So they could
[38:09] Speaker 1: let's say they finished as RB seventeen and full PPR leagues,
[38:13] Speaker 1: that means they would be either RB sixteen or RB
[38:16] Speaker 1: eighteen in half APR leagues.
[38:18] Speaker 5: That's what that's saying.
[38:19] Speaker 1: And as you go down further and further, very rarely
[38:22] Speaker 1: are these players really shifting in their overall rank from
[38:26] Speaker 1: one scoring setting to the next. It just doesn't happen
[38:28] Speaker 1: very frequently whatsoever. And that only diminishes when you look
[38:32] Speaker 1: at top twelve and top six. So this is looking
[38:34] Speaker 1: at top twenty four running backs and wide receivers in.
[38:37] Speaker 5: Top twelve tight ends.
[38:38] Speaker 1: If you look at top twelve running backs and wide
[38:41] Speaker 1: receivers and top six tight ends, that gap is even
[38:44] Speaker 1: smaller because there's less of variation with those those types
[38:46] Speaker 1: of players. So don't focus so heavily on scoring changes
[38:51] Speaker 1: from half to full PPR. Understand if there are funky
[38:54] Speaker 1: scoring rules in your league, I'm not saying, don't pay
[38:56] Speaker 1: attention to that. But the bigger deal is the supply
[38:59] Speaker 1: and demand and stuff. It's are you in a super
[39:02] Speaker 1: flex league?
[39:03] Speaker 5: Are you look? You know, do you have four flex spots?
[39:06] Speaker 3: You know?
[39:06] Speaker 1: Like, what what is the what is the actual demand.
[39:09] Speaker 5: For these positions?
[39:10] Speaker 1: Don't worry so much about if it's full or half PPR,
[39:12] Speaker 1: because again we're looking at this in hindsight. With these charts,
[39:16] Speaker 1: this is saying this is what happened. When you're actually
[39:18] Speaker 1: projecting what's going to happen between full and half PPR,
[39:22] Speaker 1: the ranking changes really are not significant from one position
[39:26] Speaker 1: to the next.
[39:28] Speaker 3: Okay, let's get on to the main event. It's the
[39:31] Speaker 3: late round, main event.
[39:36] Speaker 4: Okay, we've got bounce back candidates first on the lists.
[39:40] Speaker 3: Mister Ashton Genty.
[39:42] Speaker 1: I want to be clear these bounce back candates and
[39:44] Speaker 1: the way that I approach this is I looked at
[39:45] Speaker 1: players who did not perform well versus expectation last year,
[39:50] Speaker 1: and by expectation, I'm looking at only relevant fantasy weeks.
[39:54] Speaker 1: So I removed the final, so Week eighteen's not part
[39:57] Speaker 1: of this equation. And so again adp expectation and you
[40:00] Speaker 1: have a history of where these guys are drafted and
[40:03] Speaker 1: how many PPR points per game. We expect players to
[40:05] Speaker 1: score based on where they were drafted. That's just done
[40:08] Speaker 1: through regression analysis, and then how a player actually scores,
[40:12] Speaker 1: we can compare that to their expectation to see how
[40:14] Speaker 1: they played above or below expectation, and so Ashton Genty
[40:18] Speaker 1: last year he played two point four PPR points per
[40:20] Speaker 1: game below expectation. Now there are other people in the
[40:23] Speaker 1: fantasy space that do this, now that that look at,
[40:26] Speaker 1: you know, ADP expectation. They could be doing it in
[40:29] Speaker 1: a slightly different way where their formulas and their regression
[40:32] Speaker 1: analysis is just slightly different, Like their sample sizes are different,
[40:35] Speaker 1: their their way, their formulas are different.
[40:37] Speaker 5: Everyone's gonna do it a little bit differently.
[40:39] Speaker 1: And so you know, you might see someone else be
[40:42] Speaker 1: tweeting about this and it's like, oh, but this one
[40:44] Speaker 1: says that Ashon Genty only played two points below expected,
[40:47] Speaker 1: and it's okay, like that, I get. It's the general
[40:49] Speaker 1: idea here that we're that we're you know, looking at
[40:52] Speaker 1: So Ashen Genty played to two point four PPR points
[40:56] Speaker 1: per game below expected last year, he had three point
[41:00] Speaker 1: seven yards per carry, but he posted the second lowest
[41:04] Speaker 1: yards before contact per a tenth last year because that
[41:06] Speaker 1: offensive line was terrible. It was thirtieth the courter of
[41:09] Speaker 1: PFF run blocking. Now they get Colton Miller back, Tyler
[41:12] Speaker 1: Linderbaum is there at center. I think the offensive line
[41:15] Speaker 1: is gonna look a lot better. And if you look
[41:17] Speaker 1: at what is sticky from rookie sea, I mean really
[41:20] Speaker 1: any season to the next season, but rookie season stuff.
[41:23] Speaker 1: For these running backs, volume is so much of a
[41:26] Speaker 1: bigger deal than efficiency is in terms of predictiveness. Since
[41:29] Speaker 1: twenty eleven, only Saquon Barkley hid an eighty percent running
[41:33] Speaker 1: back rush are and had just as high of a
[41:35] Speaker 1: target share as Ashton Genty as a rookie running back.
[41:38] Speaker 1: And not only that, Ashton gent right now is the
[41:41] Speaker 1: RB four within market Score. Market Score really likes him too.
[41:45] Speaker 1: So all of that being said, you're gonna be able
[41:48] Speaker 1: to get Ashton Genty on some fantasy platforms at RB
[41:50] Speaker 1: eight this year based on ADP and I am in
[41:54] Speaker 1: at that cost. I think that he is in the
[41:55] Speaker 1: same tier as James Cook and Jonathan Taylor right now.
[42:00] Speaker 4: Okay, next on the list Ladd McConkie. So Lady talk
[42:07] Speaker 4: about Ladd on this show. So I'm glad that he's here.
[42:11] Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I feel like there's there.
[42:12] Speaker 1: I thought I was going to be one of the
[42:15] Speaker 1: big bowls for Lad this year, you know, one of
[42:18] Speaker 1: the people that were really high on him.
[42:19] Speaker 5: But there's so many people that.
[42:21] Speaker 1: Just love Lad, like are obsessed with Lad, and I'm
[42:24] Speaker 1: more in and out in total spoiler alert. But he
[42:27] Speaker 1: played four point three points per game below expected.
[42:30] Speaker 5: Last year.
[42:30] Speaker 1: He saw his targets per out run go from twenty
[42:33] Speaker 1: three percent to nineteen percent. He saw his target share
[42:36] Speaker 1: go from twenty four percent to twenty one percent. But
[42:39] Speaker 1: here's the thing, Mike McDaniel's in LA now. I'm buying.
[42:43] Speaker 1: I think everyone should buy into what this offense could do.
[42:46] Speaker 1: We're gonna see fewer three wide receiver sets and multi
[42:49] Speaker 1: wide receiver sets like that because of this McDaniel offense.
[42:52] Speaker 1: It's not necessarily tight end heavy, but they'll use a
[42:54] Speaker 1: full back and they'll that'll lose a wide receiver on
[42:56] Speaker 1: the field, and when that happens, usually the wide receivers
[42:59] Speaker 1: on that team end up seeing better efficiency. So if
[43:03] Speaker 1: Ladd can hit a twenty four percent target shair again
[43:07] Speaker 1: in this offense, he should pay off.
[43:10] Speaker 5: So I'm more in and out with Ladd McCaughey right now.
[43:12] Speaker 1: Even though those numbers from last year, I didn't even
[43:14] Speaker 1: post his first downs per hour run right which is
[43:16] Speaker 1: really really glaring. It was like under seven percent. So
[43:20] Speaker 1: there's a lot of scary previous season numbers with Ladd.
[43:23] Speaker 1: But if you look at the bigger picture, I think
[43:24] Speaker 1: that he's he's still a good pick.
[43:26] Speaker 3: His next guy could could help some.
[43:31] Speaker 4: He could also hurt you as a as a fellow
[43:33] Speaker 4: Kenneth Walker owner. He's now in this new on this
[43:36] Speaker 4: new team. He's the next bounce back candidate.
[43:40] Speaker 1: Yes, he played about two points per game below expected
[43:42] Speaker 1: last year. Obviously it's because he split a backfield with
[43:45] Speaker 1: Zach Sharbonnay and and look, you can, you can yell
[43:48] Speaker 1: at the Seattle coaching staff all you want.
[43:51] Speaker 5: I don't understand this.
[43:53] Speaker 1: The like people doing that when they won the freaking
[43:55] Speaker 1: Super Bowl and it was largely it was largely because
[43:59] Speaker 1: they lost Zax Sarbona and Kenneth Walker was fresh, you know, like, like,
[44:03] Speaker 1: how can you fault how they handled that backfield last
[44:06] Speaker 1: year given what we saw go down. If anything, they
[44:09] Speaker 1: handled it flawlessly and perfectly right because Sharbonay eventually goes
[44:13] Speaker 1: down and they're like, oh, we have a more fresh
[44:15] Speaker 1: Kenneth Walker. Oh, by the way, he won Super Bowl MVP.
[44:18] Speaker 1: You guys, Okay, So let's get over this idea of
[44:22] Speaker 1: complaining about how they deployed their running back room just
[44:24] Speaker 1: because of your fantasy team. So he played two points
[44:27] Speaker 1: per game below expected. He split that back field Zach Sharbonay.
[44:30] Speaker 1: There's easier competition in Kansas City for sure versus Zach
[44:33] Speaker 1: sharpennayause you have Amri de Mercado and Emma Johnson. The
[44:37] Speaker 1: fear with Kenneth Walker is the pass catching. It's not
[44:41] Speaker 1: that he can't do it, it's not that he's not
[44:43] Speaker 1: efficient doing it. It's that will a team in this
[44:46] Speaker 1: case Kansas City deploy Kenneth Walker in the way for
[44:49] Speaker 1: him to truly be a mid range RB one, you know,
[44:53] Speaker 1: like you're drafting him RB.
[44:55] Speaker 5: Ten, let's say, and.
[44:57] Speaker 1: Will he be able to finish an RB six, you know,
[44:59] Speaker 1: because that's the to kind of increase an uptick that
[45:01] Speaker 1: you want. I think it's possible, which is why I'm
[45:04] Speaker 1: more neutral with Kenneth Walker. But Emmitt Johnson and a
[45:08] Speaker 1: Mari de Mercado are both pass catching BAX like, they
[45:11] Speaker 1: both can play that role, and that's a little bit scary.
[45:13] Speaker 1: Especially Kenneth Walker hasn't been above an eight percent target
[45:16] Speaker 1: share in all but one season of his career, and
[45:21] Speaker 1: so oddly and best ball, I've been more out than
[45:25] Speaker 1: in with Walker just because of where his co he
[45:27] Speaker 1: goes with the one two turn on draftings right now,
[45:30] Speaker 1: but if you look at season long ADP, he's outside
[45:33] Speaker 1: of the top twelve running backs on almost every platform.
[45:36] Speaker 1: This is why it's so important right now for analysts
[45:40] Speaker 1: to not assume best ball is the way that season
[45:43] Speaker 1: long is going to go. And I'm trying to make
[45:46] Speaker 1: a point this year more than ever to draw that
[45:49] Speaker 1: line and make that distinction with these players because I'm
[45:53] Speaker 1: fine with drafting Kenneth Walker in season long based on
[45:56] Speaker 1: where he goes and season long, it's a lot harder
[45:58] Speaker 1: for me to take him over some of the running
[46:00] Speaker 1: backs I just like slightly more, you know, than him,
[46:03] Speaker 1: Like I've seen him go ahead of Ashton Gents. I'm
[46:04] Speaker 1: taking Ashon Genzy ahead of Kenneth Walker, like I like
[46:07] Speaker 1: him more than Kenneth Walker. But at RB fifteen on
[46:10] Speaker 1: some of these platforms, Yeah, I'll take him at RB fifteen,
[46:13] Speaker 1: That's fine.
[46:14] Speaker 4: Okay, this next one, I'm really hoping he bounces back,
[46:18] Speaker 4: like really hoping, and that is Lamar Jackson ratings.
[46:22] Speaker 1: Look so he Yes, he played four point three points
[46:25] Speaker 1: per game below expected.
[46:26] Speaker 5: He was not great last year. Here's the thing though.
[46:28] Speaker 1: Okay, look at his rushing points per game by year.
[46:31] Speaker 1: I have it listed here. The good news is that
[46:34] Speaker 1: this looks like an outlier season. Three point six is
[46:38] Speaker 1: the latest, is just going in order. I should have
[46:40] Speaker 1: put the year next to these numbers, but I didn't.
[46:43] Speaker 1: The bad news is it's kind of kind of going
[46:45] Speaker 1: down a little bit, you know, the the rushing numbers, Like,
[46:48] Speaker 1: I don't think that we're gonna see that nine point
[46:50] Speaker 1: per game rushing season from Lamar anymore.
[46:53] Speaker 5: But he should be able to get back to six
[46:55] Speaker 5: or seven.
[46:55] Speaker 1: You know, he should be able to give you the
[46:57] Speaker 1: numbers that he used to you know, there you go,
[47:00] Speaker 1: numbers that that we used to see. You got a
[47:01] Speaker 1: new offensive coordinator, you know, he doesn't have that hamstring issue.
[47:06] Speaker 1: I've been drafting Lamar and best Ball, you know, season long.
[47:09] Speaker 1: I thinks is a little bit different. But I think
[47:10] Speaker 1: the gap between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson and ADP
[47:13] Speaker 1: in general is just a little bit too wide.
[47:16] Speaker 5: See this, JJ, There you go, Lamar.
[47:20] Speaker 3: That's Lamar.
[47:20] Speaker 5: Shout out, Jamie.
[47:22] Speaker 3: Shout out Jamie. Hope to see him in Can again
[47:24] Speaker 3: this year.
[47:25] Speaker 4: Okay, let's go to the next one, and we've talked
[47:28] Speaker 4: about him.
[47:29] Speaker 3: Also, it's DJ Moore.
[47:32] Speaker 1: I see the upside case with DJ Moore for sure.
[47:34] Speaker 1: I think the fit with Josh Allen's great. He's he's
[47:36] Speaker 1: an improviser. DJ Moore is, and obviously Josh Allen is too.
[47:40] Speaker 1: It's just really hard for me to look at what
[47:42] Speaker 1: he's done the last two years and feel really good
[47:44] Speaker 1: about this profile amongst other wide receivers in that range
[47:48] Speaker 1: that are just really good, you know, there's just a
[47:49] Speaker 1: really good competition there. He's had a sub seven percent
[47:52] Speaker 1: first downs perrout run rate and back to back seasons
[47:56] Speaker 1: that's a really bad number for a guy that's gonna
[47:58] Speaker 1: be drafted in the top thirty at the position. He's
[48:00] Speaker 1: been below a one point five yards perrout run rate
[48:02] Speaker 1: back seasons, which is also very bad. I mean, the
[48:06] Speaker 1: trends for players like this have not been friendly whatsoever.
[48:10] Speaker 1: I like the pairing with Josh Allen hypothetically. I just
[48:13] Speaker 1: don't know if DJ Moore is the player that people
[48:17] Speaker 1: think that he is.
[48:18] Speaker 5: So overall, I've been out.
[48:21] Speaker 3: Okay, Brian Thomas Junior next on this list.
[48:25] Speaker 5: Yeah, so again another spoiler.
[48:28] Speaker 1: I think Parker Washington at his ADP and season long
[48:31] Speaker 1: is way more attractive than Brian Thomas, but you don't
[48:34] Speaker 1: get that same kind of discount in Best Ball, so
[48:36] Speaker 1: it's a little bit different. But Brian Thomas played six
[48:40] Speaker 1: and a half points per game below expected last year.
[48:42] Speaker 1: The one thing that's really interesting is that his air
[48:44] Speaker 1: yards per game really didn't change year over year. He
[48:47] Speaker 1: just didn't convert the same way that he did as
[48:49] Speaker 1: a rookie.
[48:49] Speaker 5: Was that a mac Jones thing?
[48:52] Speaker 1: Maybe maybe they played some role, but he definitely didn't
[48:55] Speaker 1: make the big plays that he did, the splash plays
[48:56] Speaker 1: that he did as a rookie, and that led to
[48:59] Speaker 1: a seven percent first downs per out run rate and
[49:03] Speaker 1: a one point five zero yards per out run, both
[49:05] Speaker 1: pretty poor numbers for Brian Thomas.
[49:07] Speaker 5: Last season.
[49:08] Speaker 1: He also saw his target show go from about twenty
[49:10] Speaker 1: five percent to nineteen percent. It's a good environment though
[49:14] Speaker 1: there's a lot of positive vibes. He did do what
[49:16] Speaker 1: he did his rookie season, and he was hurt last year.
[49:19] Speaker 1: So because of all of that, I'm more neutral with
[49:21] Speaker 1: Brian Thomas. I think he's easier to draft in Best
[49:23] Speaker 1: Ball though than he is in Season one.
[49:26] Speaker 4: All right, Next one had a touchdown in the playoffs,
[49:29] Speaker 4: but aside from that, not very much.
[49:31] Speaker 3: Matthew Golden the Packers.
[49:32] Speaker 1: I mean, we talked about Golden with the the market
[49:35] Speaker 1: score stuff in his top comp being sky Moore, which
[49:37] Speaker 1: I think is like kind of a reasonable comp for
[49:40] Speaker 1: him to have.
[49:41] Speaker 5: I think that there's still some upside there for sure,
[49:44] Speaker 5: like it could click.
[49:45] Speaker 1: It might have just been a rough season, and we've
[49:48] Speaker 1: seen that at times at wide receiver with these rookies.
[49:51] Speaker 1: But he had a one point three to five yards
[49:53] Speaker 1: per out run rate, a six percent first downs per
[49:55] Speaker 1: out run rate. He had a questionable prospect profile on
[49:57] Speaker 1: top of that. This is one of those players were
[50:00] Speaker 1: if he had a good prospect profile and he had
[50:04] Speaker 1: a bad first season, I would be in still at
[50:08] Speaker 1: this cost. But because I didn't, I wasn't in love
[50:10] Speaker 1: with him as a prospect. I'm mostly out Matthew Golden,
[50:14] Speaker 1: despite like, like, I don't think his ADP is that unreasonable.
[50:17] Speaker 1: So I don't want to say like totally out, but
[50:20] Speaker 1: but I am probably mostly out with Golden this year.
[50:24] Speaker 3: Okay, Saquon is next on this list.
[50:28] Speaker 1: Three and a half points per game below expected last
[50:30] Speaker 1: year for Saquon and that's largely driven by I mean,
[50:34] Speaker 1: Kevin Matula.
[50:34] Speaker 5: Sucks like he's still bad.
[50:37] Speaker 1: I Mean, I've I've said it so many times in
[50:39] Speaker 1: the show this offseason, but like, I really do think
[50:42] Speaker 1: the Eagles are gonna be a lot better this year.
[50:45] Speaker 5: Last year one of the big reasons.
[50:47] Speaker 1: And now there is some fear with Saquon that this
[50:48] Speaker 1: could just be the turning point of his career and
[50:52] Speaker 1: he's just not as explosive as he used to be.
[50:53] Speaker 1: He hit a one point four percent twenty plus yard
[50:55] Speaker 1: run rate last year, which was the worst of his
[50:57] Speaker 1: career by like a decent margin.
[50:59] Speaker 5: And so there is that fear for sure with Saquon.
[51:03] Speaker 1: But if you look at his his base usage, he
[51:05] Speaker 1: actually had a better running back rush, air and target
[51:08] Speaker 1: share year over year in this offense versus that Super
[51:12] Speaker 1: Bowl winning year he had two years ago. So I'm
[51:15] Speaker 1: I'm kind of neutral with Saquon at this point. I
[51:18] Speaker 1: think he's fine at that one two turn area. There's
[51:22] Speaker 1: just just so many good running backs that you can
[51:24] Speaker 1: choose from there that I don't want to be especially
[51:26] Speaker 1: overweight on a player like him coming off the season
[51:29] Speaker 1: that he came off.
[51:31] Speaker 4: Yeah, as someone who's had the eleven or twelve spot
[51:35] Speaker 4: on DK more times than not.
[51:39] Speaker 3: I feel like I have.
[51:40] Speaker 4: Too much Saquon Yeah bags right now, all right, last,
[51:45] Speaker 4: but for my expectation, not least mister Justin Jefferson.
[51:50] Speaker 5: Yeah, so the crazy Hill teams last year, I mean,
[51:54] Speaker 5: he killed, he did, he did.
[51:56] Speaker 1: He played six point one PPR points per game below expected.
[51:58] Speaker 1: I mean, he was one of the worst Fantasy football
[52:00] Speaker 1: picks last season in the end, but his you know,
[52:03] Speaker 1: his usage was still there. It's just that they couldn't
[52:05] Speaker 1: convert and they had really bad quarterback play. And the
[52:08] Speaker 1: crazy thing is that Justin Jefferson, despite his lofty expectation,
[52:12] Speaker 1: he's been a top ten wide receiver since his rookie
[52:14] Speaker 1: year in ADP. Despite that, he's played below ADP expectation
[52:19] Speaker 1: just once throughout his career, which was last year, which
[52:23] Speaker 1: is kind of crazy, like that just goes to show
[52:24] Speaker 1: how good and dominant he's been. Last year was the
[52:27] Speaker 1: first time his yards per out run fell below two
[52:31] Speaker 1: point five. Two point five, you guys, is like an elite,
[52:35] Speaker 1: elite yards perrout run season. Last year was the first
[52:38] Speaker 1: time it fell below that point. I don't think Justin
[52:41] Speaker 1: Jefferson just forgot how to play football. I don't think
[52:44] Speaker 1: that that's a reasonable thing to expect or say. And
[52:47] Speaker 1: then you get Kyler Murray, who's going.
[52:49] Speaker 5: To step in.
[52:49] Speaker 1: And we've seen Kyler support you know, DeAndre Hopkins in
[52:52] Speaker 1: the past and such like.
[52:53] Speaker 5: It's not like it's this.
[52:54] Speaker 1: Thing that he can't do, even though there's a chance
[52:57] Speaker 1: that he's not nearly as good as you know, what
[52:59] Speaker 1: we're hoping. So right now, my verdict for Justin Jefferson
[53:03] Speaker 1: is neutral, just because he's being drafted high still right like,
[53:06] Speaker 1: he's still a high draft pick. But I'm totally fine
[53:09] Speaker 1: with drafting Justin Jefferson this year. I like the Minnesota offense.
[53:13] Speaker 1: I really like Kyler Murray as a pick, and so
[53:16] Speaker 1: I'm I'm you know, you could maybe argue I'm more
[53:19] Speaker 1: in and out, but I wouldn't be worried about what
[53:21] Speaker 1: we saw from Justin Jefferson in twenty twenty five.
[53:25] Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, it's hard to imagine quarterback play.
[53:31] Speaker 3: Being worse than it was last year.
[53:34] Speaker 1: Horrible, although oddly, I mean, this is gonna be a
[53:37] Speaker 1: Caleb Williams stray, but Caleb Williams had a worse completion
[53:41] Speaker 1: rate over expected than JJ McCarthy last year.
[53:45] Speaker 3: Last year, Kay Williamson last year.
[53:48] Speaker 1: Caleb Williams had a worse completion rate over expected.
[53:51] Speaker 5: The JJ McCarthy.
[53:53] Speaker 4: Yeah, let's hope this Vikings offense just gets back to
[53:57] Speaker 4: what it did, what it has been doing in the past,
[54:00] Speaker 4: and Jefferson becomes an elite fantasy option again.
[54:04] Speaker 3: That's what I'm hoping. All right, let's let's wrap this up.
[54:12] Speaker 4: Okay, Just a reminder that's the Draft Guide coming out
[54:17] Speaker 4: on Thursday night, and you can get it by going
[54:21] Speaker 4: to lateroad dot com. You can become an All Access
[54:23] Speaker 4: member and have it included in your membership as well
[54:26] Speaker 4: as the twenty twenty six Prospect Guide, and you would
[54:29] Speaker 4: also be in the twenty twenty seven Prospect Guide.
[54:33] Speaker 3: Sign up for the newsletter.
[54:35] Speaker 4: Freandane Gadoula has been doing a great job with the
[54:37] Speaker 4: midweek stuff. I've got the end of week stuff where
[54:40] Speaker 4: we kind of recap what's been happening a little bit
[54:42] Speaker 4: behind the scenes for late round. And then again, if
[54:45] Speaker 4: you missed it at the beginning, we are not going
[54:48] Speaker 4: to have this show next week. JJ is taking a
[54:51] Speaker 4: much deserved vacation. JJ final thoughts.
[54:56] Speaker 5: Look, you know I'm excited for the draft guy to
[54:58] Speaker 5: go out.
[54:59] Speaker 1: Hopefully you guys enjoy it, and I am equally excited
[55:04] Speaker 1: to be chilling with the family at the beach.
[55:07] Speaker 3: There you go. How's your Scott Fishball team. By the way, I'm.
[55:10] Speaker 5: Only two rounds in. I'm in the one twelve spot.
[55:12] Speaker 1: I'm in the twelve spot, and I drafted Justin Jefferson, who.
[55:16] Speaker 5: We just talked about.
[55:17] Speaker 1: Yeah, uh, and Trey McBride, who I'm not even like,
[55:20] Speaker 1: I'm not high on McBride at all this year versus
[55:22] Speaker 1: the market, but the scoring settings really do favorite tight ends.
[55:25] Speaker 1: And he you know, he technically he was like five
[55:28] Speaker 1: spots below ADP where I drafted him, so I just
[55:31] Speaker 1: got him.
[55:32] Speaker 4: Whenever I sign up for Scott fish Ball, he gives
[55:33] Speaker 4: you the option to select your your draft spot, and
[55:36] Speaker 4: I just select first overall.
[55:37] Speaker 3: Just yeah.
[55:39] Speaker 1: I actually forgot to join a league this year, and
[55:42] Speaker 1: Scott put me in the perfect dark league and then
[55:45] Speaker 1: he made me the twelve spot because I had forgotten.
[55:49] Speaker 1: And he knows that analysts, you know, like, I love
[55:53] Speaker 1: Scott fish Ball every year and I pay attention to
[55:56] Speaker 1: the drafts and stuff like that. But he's like, it's
[55:57] Speaker 1: always easiest because you know you're busy and you'll have
[56:00] Speaker 1: you can make two picks right in a row like that.
[56:02] Speaker 5: But I had seen him.
[56:03] Speaker 1: I saw him at the Charlotte SFB event and because
[56:06] Speaker 1: he was there this year, and I was like, did
[56:08] Speaker 1: you put me in the Perfect Dark Division or league?
[56:12] Speaker 1: And he was like yeah. He was like I went
[56:14] Speaker 1: through and saw the people who hadn't claimed the league yet,
[56:16] Speaker 1: and you were the only person that I matched. You know,
[56:18] Speaker 1: other people will match for him, like you know, do
[56:20] Speaker 1: that job for him, but he just decided to do
[56:22] Speaker 1: it for me.
[56:22] Speaker 3: In particular.
[56:23] Speaker 4: I'm in the Halo League, so I chose Gibbs first overall.
[56:29] Speaker 4: But I feel like, first four picks you could have
[56:31] Speaker 4: gone really anyone, and it hasn't come back around to me,
[56:35] Speaker 4: So that's fun again. Fantacy Cares is the nonprofit that
[56:41] Speaker 4: Scott has that it benefits from Scott fish Bull if
[56:43] Speaker 4: you haven't checked that out. We love Scott and hope
[56:47] Speaker 4: to see him in cann at the Ffxpo. We appreciate though,
[56:50] Speaker 4: everyone for tuning in for liking comment. I saw one
[56:53] Speaker 4: guy who was like commented earlier, was like, Hey, I
[56:56] Speaker 4: love that you guys talk about personal stuff on this show,
[56:59] Speaker 4: and then then you get into the actual fantasy content.
[57:02] Speaker 4: Slam the key, so shout out or appreciate his shout out,
[57:06] Speaker 4: and again we just appreciate everyone and we'll see you
[57:08] Speaker 4: next time here on the Late Brown Fantasy Football a

Shows are listed from Apple Podcasts' charts and directory, and Podcast Index where it is used. Every show and episode belongs to its publisher and plays from the publisher's own feed; this site hosts none of them.