# Rewind: Taking Advantage of Quarterback Touchdown Rates

An episode of [The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1224965828), 9 Jun 2026, 18 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0a233618-d694-4c81-a139-b34e00f98fb1/c024ca19-eb2a-4dec-b676-b45e00d537fa/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=5747cc82-33a9-497c-8353-b34e00f98fbe

JJ brings back an episode from last year on quarterback touchdown rates, briefly touching on one quarterback who's bound to regress here in 2026. Make sure to check out LateRound.com to pre-order the 2026 Draft Guide. And while you're there, become a member! The new Members Hub is the place for rankings and tiers, data dumps, and more. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host jj Zacher
[0:05] Speaker 1: reathas j Jake Zacher reason. June seems like a month
[0:13] Speaker 1: where there's not a lot going on with my job
[0:15] Speaker 1: as a fantasy analyst, but it's actually one of the
[0:17] Speaker 1: busiest months of my year because I'm working on the
[0:19] Speaker 1: Draft Guide and that Draft Guide has a ton of
[0:22] Speaker 1: research in it each year that takes a lot of time,
[0:25] Speaker 1: So to manage that time as well as I can.
[0:27] Speaker 1: You may be getting more of these rewind episodes over
[0:30] Speaker 1: the next few weeks.
[0:31] Speaker 2: For the early week episodes.
[0:33] Speaker 1: They're still becoming a Best Ball bro there's still the
[0:36] Speaker 1: Late Round show, and there's still perspectives in the mailbag
[0:39] Speaker 1: happening each week. You won't be suffering from lack of content,
[0:42] Speaker 1: I promise you that, but I do need to be
[0:44] Speaker 1: smart about how I'm spending my time at this moment.
[0:48] Speaker 1: With that being said, this Rewind episode is an important
[0:51] Speaker 1: one and the topic it's one that I'm once again
[0:53] Speaker 1: featuring in this.
[0:54] Speaker 2: Year's Draft Guide.
[0:55] Speaker 1: It's all about touchdown rated quarterback, what it is, why
[0:59] Speaker 1: it's important, and how we can use it to our
[1:01] Speaker 1: advantage in our drafts. Last year's big touchdown rate poster
[1:05] Speaker 1: Boys where Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, and Joe Burrow. Goff
[1:09] Speaker 1: did see the dip in touchdown rate that we expected,
[1:11] Speaker 1: though it was still pretty high. He also saw his
[1:14] Speaker 1: points per game drop by over two points per contest
[1:17] Speaker 1: year over year. Baker Mayfield saw a major decline, even
[1:22] Speaker 1: if that was partially due to injury. Regression hit him
[1:25] Speaker 1: in a big way. Now, Joe Burrow didn't really have
[1:28] Speaker 1: a huge sample, but for what it's worth, in his
[1:30] Speaker 1: seven relevant fantasy outings last year, he saw sixteen points
[1:33] Speaker 1: per contest. There's obviously more going on there though, but
[1:38] Speaker 1: when it came to touchdown rate regression last year, the results
[1:40] Speaker 1: were more or less right in line with what this
[1:43] Speaker 1: rewind episode talked about. And while there aren't as many
[1:45] Speaker 1: obvious candidates this year, the one that sticks out most
[1:49] Speaker 1: is probably Matthew Stafford, something that I talked about on
[1:52] Speaker 1: last week's Mailbag episode.
[1:54] Speaker 2: We'll see where his ADP.
[1:55] Speaker 1: Officially lands, especially in more home leaks, but that's going
[1:59] Speaker 1: to be the quarterback to track this summer regardless. Though,
[2:02] Speaker 1: if you want some of the data, you want some
[2:04] Speaker 1: of this information on touchdown rate, give this one a
[2:06] Speaker 1: listen before you do that, though, just make sure you're
[2:09] Speaker 1: checking out the brand new Lateround dot com and you're
[2:11] Speaker 1: pre ordering that draft guide. I really try to make
[2:14] Speaker 1: that draft guide bigger and better each year, and I
[2:16] Speaker 1: plan on doing the same thing here in twenty twenty six.
[2:19] Speaker 2: That's lateround dot Com.
[2:22] Speaker 1: But without further ado, here's the rewind episode on touchdown rate.
[2:29] Speaker 1: Things are a lot different these days, as I've talked
[2:31] Speaker 1: about plenty of times in the podcast, but one thing
[2:34] Speaker 1: has remained the same.
[2:36] Speaker 2: Touchdowns are still volatile.
[2:38] Speaker 1: You've heard me talk about this before when speaking on
[2:41] Speaker 1: the pocket passer trap. The crux of that idea is that,
[2:44] Speaker 1: generally speaking, when you get quarterbacks who don't run the
[2:47] Speaker 1: ball a lot, and when they have early round average
[2:49] Speaker 1: draft positions, they bust at a super high rate. You're
[2:53] Speaker 1: better off getting a mobile quarterback and high end QB
[2:56] Speaker 1: two range, then you are an immobile quarterback at like
[2:59] Speaker 1: Q five. Historically, the main reason for that is because
[3:05] Speaker 1: pocket passing quarterbacks, the ones who don't give you a
[3:07] Speaker 1: lot of fantasy production with their rushing pocket passers rely
[3:11] Speaker 1: more heavily on passing touchdowns to boost their fantasy scores.
[3:15] Speaker 1: That shouldn't be some shocking revelation. If a quarterback is
[3:19] Speaker 1: running the ball a lot, it means he doesn't have
[3:21] Speaker 1: to post as good a passing numbers to match some
[3:23] Speaker 1: of the production from a pocket passer. But for a
[3:27] Speaker 1: pocket passer, those passing numbers are all he's got. He
[3:31] Speaker 1: can't fall back on rushing, So if the passing numbers
[3:34] Speaker 1: aren't there, then good luck in fantasy football and relying
[3:38] Speaker 1: on passing production.
[3:39] Speaker 2: It's kind of scary at quarterback.
[3:42] Speaker 1: The single thing that's going to correlate to success most
[3:44] Speaker 1: in fantasy football is passing touchdowns, and unfortunately, passing touchdowns
[3:49] Speaker 1: come with a whole lot of variants. Now, don't get
[3:52] Speaker 1: me wrong, better quarterbacks will generally throw for more touchdowns
[3:55] Speaker 1: and bad quarterbacks will. But we know crazy and annoying
[3:59] Speaker 1: things can happen. And in the touchdown column, a quarterback
[4:02] Speaker 1: might throw an eighty yard bomb down to the one
[4:04] Speaker 1: just to see his running back run it in on
[4:06] Speaker 1: the following play. For that eighty yard completion, the quarterback
[4:10] Speaker 1: is getting just three point two points in the league
[4:12] Speaker 1: that gives out one point per twenty five yards. Meanwhile,
[4:16] Speaker 1: a quarterback might have a running back game eighty yards
[4:18] Speaker 1: in a long run before going down on the one,
[4:21] Speaker 1: and then the following play, if that team runs play
[4:23] Speaker 1: action and scores in a pass, the quarterback gets four
[4:26] Speaker 1: points technically more than four because he passed for a
[4:30] Speaker 1: yard as well. That one yard play is a whole
[4:33] Speaker 1: lot more valuable than the eighty yard play. And yeah,
[4:37] Speaker 1: that's kind of annoying, it's kind of dumb, but that's
[4:40] Speaker 1: how it goes in fantasy football. And that's a very
[4:43] Speaker 1: basic example showing how touchdowns can sometimes be fluky. Like
[4:47] Speaker 1: we're gonna see a general correlation of yards to touchdowns.
[4:51] Speaker 1: We're gonna see general correlation of strong talents giving us
[4:55] Speaker 1: strong touchdown totals, But outlier type seasons happen at quarterback,
[5:00] Speaker 1: and those outlier seasons are largely driven by touchdown variants.
[5:05] Speaker 1: Let's walk through a general example of this. Touchdown rate
[5:09] Speaker 1: is the easiest statistic to talk about when it comes
[5:11] Speaker 1: to touchdown regression at quarterback, because touchdown rate is simply
[5:15] Speaker 1: touchdowns divided by pass attempts.
[5:18] Speaker 2: It's really easy to grasp.
[5:20] Speaker 1: For anyone who read last week's newsletter, blast you saw
[5:23] Speaker 1: this stat that I'm about to throw at you. Since
[5:26] Speaker 1: twenty eleven, we've had fifty seven quarterbacks hit three hundred
[5:29] Speaker 1: pass attempts to go along with a touchdown rate of
[5:31] Speaker 1: six percent or higher. The league average during this time,
[5:35] Speaker 1: by the way, is a touchdown rate of four point
[5:36] Speaker 1: four percent. So the ordinary quarterback will throw a touchdown
[5:40] Speaker 1: pass on four point four percent of their attempts, but
[5:43] Speaker 1: in this sample of fifty seven, they throw a touchdown
[5:45] Speaker 1: pass on at least six percent of theirs, so significantly higher. Meanwhile,
[5:51] Speaker 1: of those fifty seven, forty four of them ended up
[5:54] Speaker 1: throwing it three hundred or more times the following season
[5:57] Speaker 1: as well. So after that six percent touchdown share season,
[6:01] Speaker 1: guess how many of those forty four quarterbacks saw their
[6:04] Speaker 1: touchdown rates increase year over year Four of them, and
[6:09] Speaker 1: two of those four were Russell Wilson, who had touched
[6:12] Speaker 1: on rates of six percent and six point one percent,
[6:15] Speaker 1: meaning he barely even made the cutoff here to begin with. Now,
[6:19] Speaker 1: six percent is an arbitrary number, for sure, but it's
[6:23] Speaker 1: one that will probably see players hit each season, and
[6:26] Speaker 1: it's one that shown serious regression in the past. One
[6:30] Speaker 1: question I asked myself though, when I was writing that
[6:33] Speaker 1: newsletter and when I was digging into touchdown rate one
[6:36] Speaker 1: question I kept asking was does the market generally account
[6:39] Speaker 1: for this progression? And does it actually matter for fantasy football?
[6:44] Speaker 1: Like I can point to all these quarterbacks, we're gonna
[6:46] Speaker 1: probably regress in some way year over year just by
[6:48] Speaker 1: looking at a touchdown rate. But is the market already
[6:51] Speaker 1: accounting for that? In other words, Jared Goff going from
[6:54] Speaker 1: twenty twenty four to twenty twenty five, GoF had a
[6:56] Speaker 1: touchdown rate last year of six point nine percent. He's
[6:59] Speaker 1: now being drafted around QB ten depending on the source.
[7:04] Speaker 1: Is his regression already baked in? What's happened historically with
[7:08] Speaker 1: quarterbacks who had high touchdown rates? Do they live up
[7:11] Speaker 1: to expectation the following year? Let's answer those questions. I
[7:16] Speaker 1: went back to that sample of fifty seven quarterbacks who
[7:19] Speaker 1: hit a six percent or better touchdown rates since twenty eleven. Now, obviously,
[7:23] Speaker 1: if we're going to analyze next season data, we have
[7:25] Speaker 1: to remove all the players who hit that mark in
[7:27] Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. I also want to do some average
[7:30] Speaker 1: draft position comparisons, and my ADP database is build off
[7:34] Speaker 1: of data from fantasydata dot Com, and that ADP goes
[7:37] Speaker 1: back to twenty fourteen. So I'm really looking at twenty
[7:41] Speaker 1: fourteen through twenty twenty three here, and I'm looking at
[7:44] Speaker 1: quarterbacks who had three hundred pass attempts and a six
[7:47] Speaker 1: percent or better touchdown rate in year N, along with
[7:50] Speaker 1: three hundred or more pass attempts and year N plus
[7:53] Speaker 1: one the following year. So one year three hundred pass
[7:57] Speaker 1: attempts at least a six percent touchdown rate, following year
[8:00] Speaker 1: at least three hundred pass attempts. That left me with
[8:04] Speaker 1: thirty seven quarterbacks to analyze in total, for some context,
[8:08] Speaker 1: Of these thirty seven, only three of them improve their
[8:11] Speaker 1: touchdown rate from year end to year EN plus one.
[8:15] Speaker 1: So the vast majority of these dudes saw a decline
[8:18] Speaker 1: and touchdown rate from one year to the next. But
[8:21] Speaker 1: what about fantasy production? Well, of our thirty seven quarterbacks
[8:25] Speaker 1: who had touched on rates of six percent are better
[8:27] Speaker 1: during their follow up season, just six of them saw
[8:30] Speaker 1: improvement in fantasy points per game. And for the record,
[8:33] Speaker 1: I'm using standard scoring here, so four points per touchdown pass.
[8:37] Speaker 1: But that means that roughly eighty four percent of quarterbacks
[8:40] Speaker 1: who had a touchdown rate of six percent or better
[8:42] Speaker 1: in one season ended up seeing a lower points per
[8:45] Speaker 1: game rate the following year. That's kind of staggering, but
[8:49] Speaker 1: it's also not totally surprising when you figure how much
[8:52] Speaker 1: touchdown rate is going to drive fantasy production in the
[8:55] Speaker 1: first place. So if it's a volatile number that regresses
[8:59] Speaker 1: fantasy points, where we're regress two. And also, of those
[9:02] Speaker 1: six quarterbacks who saw improvement in points per game, one
[9:05] Speaker 1: of them actually did see a decrease in passing points
[9:09] Speaker 1: per game. That was Russell Wilson from twenty thirteen to
[9:12] Speaker 1: twenty fourteen. The only reason he improved in points per
[9:15] Speaker 1: game is because he went from one rushing touchdown during
[9:18] Speaker 1: his good touchdown right season to six rushing touchdowns the
[9:21] Speaker 1: following year. Regardless, we're looking at eighty four percent of
[9:24] Speaker 1: quarterbacks seeing a drop in production from one year to
[9:28] Speaker 1: the next, and that drop in production is not insignificant.
[9:32] Speaker 1: Let me give you the breakdown of the thirty one
[9:35] Speaker 1: quarterbacks who saw a drop in points per game from
[9:37] Speaker 1: one year to the next. Two of them had a
[9:40] Speaker 1: drop in points per game of zero to one points,
[9:43] Speaker 1: so not a huge drop. Three of them had a
[9:45] Speaker 1: drop between one and two points, so again not a
[9:48] Speaker 1: significant drop. Five more of them had a drop between
[9:52] Speaker 1: two and three points, and then twenty one of them
[9:56] Speaker 1: saw a drop in production of three or more points
[9:59] Speaker 1: per game. So yeah, eighty four percent of high touchdown
[10:03] Speaker 1: rate quarterbacks see a drop in points per game from
[10:05] Speaker 1: one year to the next. But fifty seven percent of them,
[10:08] Speaker 1: well more than half of them see a drop of
[10:11] Speaker 1: more than.
[10:11] Speaker 2: Three points per game. And here's the kicker.
[10:15] Speaker 1: If you sort this list of thirty seven quarterbacks by
[10:17] Speaker 1: their year over year drop in points per game, another
[10:20] Speaker 1: interesting trend emerges. The players who follow the most are
[10:24] Speaker 1: generally pocket passers. They generally aren't giving you a little
[10:29] Speaker 1: extra with their legs. Here's an example. Within our sample,
[10:33] Speaker 1: there's some repeat performers. Lamar Jackson's been over the six
[10:36] Speaker 1: percent touchdown share mark twice within the sample. Josh Allen,
[10:39] Speaker 1: same deal, Russell Wilson has many of them, and so on.
[10:43] Speaker 1: So there's a mix of players in here, a mix
[10:45] Speaker 1: between mobile quarterbacks and more immobile pocket passer quarterbacks. Well,
[10:49] Speaker 1: remember how I said. Six of the thirty seven quarterbacks
[10:52] Speaker 1: who had six percent or better touchdown rates ended up
[10:54] Speaker 1: improving their points per game.
[10:56] Speaker 2: Scores year over year.
[10:58] Speaker 1: Four of those six players score or at least three
[11:00] Speaker 1: point two points per game in that following season with
[11:03] Speaker 1: their legs. When you sort this sample of thirty seven
[11:07] Speaker 1: quarterbacks by rushing fantasy points per game, when you look
[11:10] Speaker 1: at the top ten quarterbacks by rushing points per game,
[11:14] Speaker 1: four of them actually improve their points per game year
[11:17] Speaker 1: over year. To put that another way, it plays into
[11:20] Speaker 1: what I was saying at the top, what I've said
[11:22] Speaker 1: about the pocket passer trap, what rich Reebar wrote about
[11:25] Speaker 1: over a decade ago when he created the idea of
[11:28] Speaker 1: the Konami code at quarterback. When these quarterbacks are giving
[11:31] Speaker 1: you some sort of rushing production, they're giving you other outs.
[11:36] Speaker 1: So yeah, the passing regression is going to hit. But
[11:38] Speaker 1: oftentimes when the quarterback is mobile, they can still maintain
[11:42] Speaker 1: fantasy value because of what they can do on the ground.
[11:46] Speaker 2: We need to be.
[11:46] Speaker 1: Careful of all quarterbacks who have unsustainable touchdown rates, but
[11:50] Speaker 1: we need to be extra careful with pocket passing quarterbacks
[11:53] Speaker 1: who have unsustainable touchdown rates. Now, one of the big
[11:57] Speaker 1: questions that I was asking is does the market actually
[11:59] Speaker 1: account for all this we now know? And it's pretty
[12:03] Speaker 1: glaring too that a quarterback with a high touchdown rate
[12:06] Speaker 1: one year has a high chance of scoring fewer fantasy
[12:08] Speaker 1: points the following season, especially if he's not that much
[12:12] Speaker 1: of a rusher.
[12:13] Speaker 2: But does the market account for this already?
[12:16] Speaker 1: Well, I took a look at average drapt position data
[12:18] Speaker 1: and here's what I found. First off, I think we
[12:21] Speaker 1: need to be aware that the quarterbacks that we're dealing
[12:23] Speaker 1: with here are all.
[12:24] Speaker 2: Generally good quarterbacks.
[12:26] Speaker 1: Touchdown rates are volatile, and they regress, yes, but you'll
[12:29] Speaker 1: still generally see good quarterbacks with slightly higher touchdown rates
[12:32] Speaker 1: than the norm. You're not gonna get like Aidan O'Connell
[12:36] Speaker 1: throwing to a seven percent touchdown rate in a given season. Now,
[12:38] Speaker 1: we did have guys like two a get there, Carson Wentz,
[12:41] Speaker 1: Nick Foles, some weird players like that, but the list
[12:45] Speaker 1: of thirty seven is more filled with names like Lamar Jackson,
[12:48] Speaker 1: Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, Joe Burrow, and Tom Brady.
[12:51] Speaker 2: But because these quarterbacks are more good.
[12:54] Speaker 1: Than bad, to go along with them coming off really
[12:56] Speaker 1: good seasons, they're naturally gonna have higher ADPs the following year.
[13:00] Speaker 1: The average quarterback rank by ADP among this group during
[13:04] Speaker 1: their N plus one season was six point eight, meaning
[13:08] Speaker 1: these quarterbacks were basically drafted at QB seven on average,
[13:11] Speaker 1: the following season, only four of them were drafted outside
[13:15] Speaker 1: QB twelve range. Now I just want to give you
[13:18] Speaker 1: guys that context, because this first exercise plays into that.
[13:22] Speaker 1: The first thing I did was simply look at average
[13:24] Speaker 1: draft position rank that a quarterback had versus where that
[13:27] Speaker 1: quarterback finished in that given year. So Peyton Manning in
[13:31] Speaker 1: twenty fourteen after his twenty thirteen season that saw him
[13:34] Speaker 1: with an eight point four percent touchdown rate, so he
[13:37] Speaker 1: was above that six percent mark. In twenty fourteen, he
[13:40] Speaker 1: was the QB one by ADP. Obviously that's going to
[13:44] Speaker 1: be impossible to improve upon, but he finishes the QB four.
[13:49] Speaker 1: But to give you an idea of how these touchdown
[13:51] Speaker 1: rate regression candidates did in that N plus one season,
[13:54] Speaker 1: twenty eight of the thirty seven failed to live up
[13:57] Speaker 1: to their positional rank by adpquarterback was whing QB seven
[14:01] Speaker 1: by ADP, and he finished his QB eleven. He didn't
[14:04] Speaker 1: live up to his average draft position positional rank. Twenty
[14:08] Speaker 1: eight of the thirty seven failed to do that, which
[14:11] Speaker 1: obviously is not what we're looking for now. Late Round
[14:15] Speaker 1: Draft Guide readers know this already, but I like to
[14:17] Speaker 1: look at this kind of stuff a little bit more precisely,
[14:20] Speaker 1: I like to compare average draft position to player output,
[14:24] Speaker 1: and the way I do that is by looking at history,
[14:27] Speaker 1: plotting every quarterback spot by EIGHTYP since twenty fourteen, and
[14:31] Speaker 1: comparing that spot to the quarterbacks points per game output
[14:34] Speaker 1: using a trend line that gives me ADP expectation, or
[14:38] Speaker 1: how many points per game we'd expect a quarterback to
[14:41] Speaker 1: score at a particular overall ADP. I can then take
[14:46] Speaker 1: that number and compare it to a quarterback's actual output,
[14:50] Speaker 1: and we can see if the quarterback outperformed ADP or not. Unsurprisingly,
[14:55] Speaker 1: this group of thirty seven quarterbacks underperformed versus expectation more
[14:59] Speaker 1: than they overperformed. Twenty four of them played under expected, which, honestly,
[15:04] Speaker 1: it's not as bad of a number all things considered.
[15:07] Speaker 1: I thought it was going to be worse than that,
[15:10] Speaker 1: and it tells me that the market is doing something
[15:13] Speaker 1: to adjust for the incoming regression for these guys. But
[15:16] Speaker 1: I will say not many of the quarterbacks have outperformed
[15:19] Speaker 1: average draft position expectation by a large number of points,
[15:23] Speaker 1: and on average, quarterbacks who are part of this cohort
[15:26] Speaker 1: are falling about a point per game below ADP expectation.
[15:30] Speaker 1: So just in general, these quarterbacks generally play one point
[15:34] Speaker 1: per game below expected. That might not seem like a lot,
[15:38] Speaker 1: but it is a lot across a larger sample. So
[15:42] Speaker 1: when you look at where these high touchdown rate quarterbacks
[15:44] Speaker 1: are being drafted the following season, they far more often
[15:48] Speaker 1: than not fail to live up to average draft position expectation.
[15:51] Speaker 2: Two. So what does this all mean?
[15:54] Speaker 1: Well, to wrap up everything I just said, we've got
[15:56] Speaker 1: the following takeaways.
[15:58] Speaker 2: Number one.
[15:58] Speaker 1: When a quarterback has a touched on eight of six
[16:00] Speaker 1: percent or better one season, odds are that he's going
[16:03] Speaker 1: to see worse fantasy production the following season, and there's
[16:06] Speaker 1: a better than fifty percent chance that he sees a
[16:08] Speaker 1: drop of three or more points per game. Number two.
[16:12] Speaker 1: That can be combated a little bit by quarterbacks who
[16:14] Speaker 1: are mobile. They tend to beat regression more in points
[16:17] Speaker 1: per game because they have another way of scoring points
[16:20] Speaker 1: to fall back on. Now, obviously, three points per game,
[16:23] Speaker 1: it's a lot easier to lose from a player who
[16:25] Speaker 1: scores twenty five points per game one year versus one
[16:28] Speaker 1: who scores twenty. So if you just want to look
[16:30] Speaker 1: at how the market predicts this stuff. It's still not great.
[16:33] Speaker 1: Only thirty five percent of high touchdown rate quarterbacks will
[16:36] Speaker 1: exceed ADP expectation the following year or they have in
[16:40] Speaker 1: the past, and the vast majority of those players they're
[16:44] Speaker 1: not doing it by a significant number of points. And
[16:48] Speaker 1: for the record, this applies much more to season long
[16:51] Speaker 1: than best ball. Best ball is about spike tweaks. It's
[16:54] Speaker 1: about stacking that can shift the players cost. It also
[16:58] Speaker 1: makes certain players more or less value based on your
[17:01] Speaker 1: team build. But for season long it's a different story.
[17:05] Speaker 1: It's very clear that touchdown rate is volatile, but we
[17:09] Speaker 1: know that it's volatile, so let's use that to our advantage.
[17:13] Speaker 1: Let's use that regression and instead of thinking that it's unpredictable,
[17:17] Speaker 1: think that touchdown rate is actually predictable because we know
[17:20] Speaker 1: what's going to regress.

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