# Late-Round Perspectives: Jake Ciely

An episode of [The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1224965828), 5 Sep 2025, 1 h 05 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0a233618-d694-4c81-a139-b34e00f98fb1/f446eed3-7ad6-4fd4-a26b-b34f011360c9/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=5747cc82-33a9-497c-8353-b34e00f98fbe

The Athletic's Jake Ciely joins Perspectives to talk about mistakes drafters made this season, tons of controversial players, his top breakout offense, and so much more. Order the Late-Round Draft Guide on LateRound.com, and make sure to sign up for the free newsletter. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: Jake Seely is a senior fantasy writer at the Athletic
[0:02] Speaker 1: and host of the All In Speed Run podcast.
[0:05] Speaker 2: Many may know him as the all in Kid.
[0:07] Speaker 1: He'll rank just about anything, he loves duct tails, he
[0:10] Speaker 1: once owned a deli, and you're better off not asking him.
[0:13] Speaker 2: To join a league with kickers.
[0:14] Speaker 1: These are his Late Round perspectives. I've teamed up with
[0:32] Speaker 1: DraftKings to kick off Week one. Head over to DraftKings.
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[1:18] Speaker 1: Slash promotions sponsored by Draftings. Now back to the show.
[1:24] Speaker 1: Do you listen to a lot of like fantasy podcasts
[1:26] Speaker 1: and stuff or are you more so just like I
[1:28] Speaker 1: just stay, just do my thing, and then I just
[1:30] Speaker 1: kind of consume other media outside of this.
[1:34] Speaker 3: So it's gonna sound so mean being in the industry,
[1:37] Speaker 3: but ninety percent now I try to dip in a
[1:39] Speaker 3: little bit. Like I obviously have listened to you. I
[1:42] Speaker 3: listened Chris Harris at Alfredo with this series which I
[1:45] Speaker 3: think which you're about to talk about. Yes, but the
[1:47] Speaker 3: biggest reason and I think I don't want to speak
[1:49] Speaker 3: for you, but I feel like you do the same
[1:51] Speaker 3: thing is like I don't want to cloud my opinion
[1:53] Speaker 3: too much. I want to have mine in place, and
[1:56] Speaker 3: then I just go and like, hey, I'll check this
[1:58] Speaker 3: one out this week, and maybe I miss something.
[2:00] Speaker 1: Right exactly, it's more so for me, like of course
[2:02] Speaker 1: you want to support you know, friends and stuff in
[2:04] Speaker 1: the space and whatnot.
[2:05] Speaker 2: But I also just none of that.
[2:07] Speaker 1: But I kind of want to break from, you know,
[2:09] Speaker 1: all this stuff that we're doing twenty four to seven,
[2:11] Speaker 1: Like I just want to kind of veg out and
[2:13] Speaker 1: just think about something else. But I was listening to
[2:16] Speaker 1: anyone who hasn't done so Alfredo Brown, friend of the show.
[2:20] Speaker 1: He started doing the Pretend GM podcast again and he
[2:22] Speaker 1: was bringing on different analysts. I was on, you were on,
[2:25] Speaker 1: and he talks more about like process and life and
[2:29] Speaker 1: not just fantasy football stuff. So to me, I'm like, oh,
[2:31] Speaker 1: I have friends that are being interviewed. I want to
[2:33] Speaker 1: hear the kind of crazy things that they're going to
[2:36] Speaker 1: say on this show. Right, And I listened to I
[2:39] Speaker 1: listened to parts of your episode, and you know what,
[2:41] Speaker 1: I completely forgot that you owned a deli.
[2:46] Speaker 2: I completely forgotten that.
[2:47] Speaker 1: Was because when when when we first I mean we've
[2:49] Speaker 1: known each other for like over a decade basically now, Yeah,
[2:52] Speaker 1: and when I first met you, I feel like it
[2:55] Speaker 1: was around the time that you would have you would
[2:57] Speaker 1: have owned the deli, right, was right around that time, actually,
[3:01] Speaker 1: I think it was close to closing. It's funny you
[3:05] Speaker 1: bring in Delhi like that's the reason you say I
[3:07] Speaker 1: want to digest other things. It's like I always compare
[3:09] Speaker 1: to if you're a butcher and then you have to
[3:11] Speaker 1: come home and eat steak.
[3:12] Speaker 3: For dinner every night.
[3:13] Speaker 2: It's like, yeah.
[3:14] Speaker 3: Like it's not. The last thing I want to do
[3:15] Speaker 3: is just do more of this, right, but you kind
[3:17] Speaker 3: of need that break. But yeah, it was a Delhi
[3:19] Speaker 3: was also the ill fated wonderful football dot Com.
[3:22] Speaker 2: Do you remember that from back in the day.
[3:24] Speaker 4: That's actually one of my first overlaps. I forgot about
[3:27] Speaker 4: football dot com that completely, like like it was just
[3:31] Speaker 4: out of my memory. Wait, didn't I do stuff in
[3:34] Speaker 4: football dot com?
[3:34] Speaker 2: Also? Yes, yes it was. It was you, me and
[3:38] Speaker 2: Denny for a little while and then we forgot.
[3:42] Speaker 1: How pathetic is it that I did work for a website.
[3:46] Speaker 2: I don't even remember doing it. Somebody have to remind
[3:50] Speaker 2: me about it last year.
[3:51] Speaker 3: It's like, oh, yeah, the biggest waste of a ur
[3:54] Speaker 3: L in the history of everything.
[3:55] Speaker 5: Oh my gosh, this is like mind blowing to me
[3:58] Speaker 5: that this is like this is not even like I
[4:02] Speaker 5: have a decent memory for stuff like that, right, none, zero,
[4:05] Speaker 5: no memory of football dot Com.
[4:07] Speaker 1: I mean, I'm assuming it's not even close to a
[4:08] Speaker 1: thing anymore. Yeah, like like as it's not really and
[4:11] Speaker 1: it's all soccer. Okay, that makes sense, Yeah that makes
[4:15] Speaker 1: the actual football. Man. Yeah, they had this great url
[4:18] Speaker 1: and that nothing happened with it?
[4:20] Speaker 2: Man, was it just who else? Was Was it just
[4:23] Speaker 2: us three? You said me?
[4:24] Speaker 3: And there was one or two other people I don't
[4:26] Speaker 3: even remember now and either the guy I'm spacing on
[4:30] Speaker 3: the guy who brought me over with you guys, because
[4:34] Speaker 3: it was like us three trying to do the majority
[4:36] Speaker 3: of it. And I remember like both of you and
[4:37] Speaker 3: Darre are like, man, this is ridiculous. They're just throwing
[4:39] Speaker 3: so much at our plate just for nothing, and like
[4:41] Speaker 3: not you know, you want to get your foot in
[4:43] Speaker 3: the door.
[4:43] Speaker 2: But it was that was. Yeah.
[4:46] Speaker 3: If you want to see how to poorly run a website,
[4:48] Speaker 3: they go back and somehow resurrect.
[4:50] Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, after this, I'm gonna have to Twitter
[4:53] Speaker 1: search like my handle with football dot com and see
[4:56] Speaker 1: if there was a see if there's anything out there
[4:57] Speaker 1: to see like what I was saying and stuff. And
[4:59] Speaker 1: then the other thing to talk about is is your
[5:01] Speaker 1: your your gaming background and the sixteen bit stuff like
[5:04] Speaker 1: where did where did that come? Like, is this just
[5:07] Speaker 1: a nostalgia thing for you or is it like are
[5:09] Speaker 1: you still are you still crushing like sixteen big games
[5:12] Speaker 1: on the regular?
[5:13] Speaker 3: Not on the regular as much anymore, you know, finally
[5:15] Speaker 3: getting a wife after twenty years kind of curve that.
[5:19] Speaker 2: A little bit.
[5:19] Speaker 3: You were actually also a part of that wonderful yeah
[5:21] Speaker 3: sixteen bit and under video game draft that we did
[5:24] Speaker 3: back in the day.
[5:25] Speaker 2: Oh I do okay, I do remember that that you
[5:27] Speaker 2: remember that one?
[5:27] Speaker 3: Yeah, the pretty strong team. Yeah, So this is just
[5:30] Speaker 3: this is my personality. That's why I did it. So
[5:32] Speaker 3: it originally started off with when back in the day
[5:35] Speaker 3: of football dot Com and the Deli worlds, is, you know,
[5:37] Speaker 3: doing video and be like, hey, maybe I shouldn't just
[5:40] Speaker 3: have this blank white wall behind me. Yeah, And it
[5:43] Speaker 3: was like I got a few fun CODs. I got
[5:45] Speaker 3: like a giant's helmet back when I used to care
[5:47] Speaker 3: about the giants. And then it just hits snowballed. It
[5:50] Speaker 3: turned into this. It just kept adding to it, kept
[5:52] Speaker 3: padding to it, and like look, yeah, and that's the
[5:55] Speaker 3: thing is like, you know, I've seen the comments. I've
[5:57] Speaker 3: seen people who are like I'm not listening to some
[5:58] Speaker 3: guy that looks like he lives in a is you know,
[6:00] Speaker 3: mom's basement or sure you know it's still a twelve
[6:03] Speaker 3: year old. And I'm like, well if you don't, but
[6:04] Speaker 3: that's me, that's me. So I'm just embracing it.
[6:07] Speaker 2: No, I love that. What's your what's your?
[6:09] Speaker 1: If if you were to just rank top one to three,
[6:14] Speaker 1: like sixteen bit type, you know, most likely side scrolling
[6:18] Speaker 1: type games, where what would you go with side scrolling?
[6:22] Speaker 1: So you mixed it up with the side you originally
[6:24] Speaker 1: what doesn't be sides throwing? I just I just assumed
[6:26] Speaker 1: that was the direction you might go in. But just
[6:28] Speaker 1: any top three because legend isld a link to the
[6:32] Speaker 1: pasta that's always top, top top, and then Mario Brothers three,
[6:37] Speaker 1: and then I don't.
[6:38] Speaker 3: Know what's a good third to me?
[6:41] Speaker 1: Sub Mario Brothers three is my go to, Like that's
[6:43] Speaker 1: the It's so timeless, so so nice, so easy.
[6:46] Speaker 3: Oh my Mega man two.
[6:48] Speaker 1: I'm always were you were you sn e s over
[6:51] Speaker 1: Sega back in the day.
[6:53] Speaker 3: I was, But I had everything I actually have. I
[6:56] Speaker 3: have a jail broken one of those Mini s any ones,
[7:00] Speaker 3: but the one of the ones that I got them
[7:02] Speaker 3: off eBay, so it has all Nintendo, all Super Nintendo,
[7:05] Speaker 3: all Genesis, all Atari, like everything you could possibly want
[7:09] Speaker 3: on it, including that wonderful Turtles game, which gave us
[7:13] Speaker 3: anxiety trying to get through that swim level with the
[7:16] Speaker 3: oh my gosh, sped up right impossible. No, the only
[7:20] Speaker 3: way I got through it was at the game Genie.
[7:23] Speaker 2: It's that level.
[7:24] Speaker 1: And you know what the other impossible level was was
[7:26] Speaker 1: the Magic Carpet ride in Aladdin. Why was that so hard?
[7:30] Speaker 1: It shouldn't have been a hood And then you know,
[7:32] Speaker 1: another hard game. And I actually heard I know that
[7:35] Speaker 1: we're getting way off track here, but I heard a
[7:38] Speaker 1: story about this. This might be someone can fact check me.
[7:40] Speaker 1: But did you ever play the Lion King game that
[7:43] Speaker 1: that came out like in like you know, like around
[7:44] Speaker 1: the time the movie came out and did?
[7:46] Speaker 3: But I never played all the way through it?
[7:48] Speaker 1: Right, So evidently they made it really really hard on
[7:51] Speaker 1: purpose because they wanted people to rent it and not
[7:54] Speaker 1: be able to beat it and then go buy it.
[7:57] Speaker 3: Oh yeah, I thought you were gonna say additional wow,
[8:00] Speaker 3: but like yeah, yeah, And apparently it worked from a
[8:03] Speaker 3: from a business model standpoint, like people actually did get
[8:05] Speaker 3: really frustratedly and there was some really insane things that
[8:09] Speaker 3: you had to do in that game that that was.
[8:11] Speaker 2: It was like, it's just so bizarre.
[8:13] Speaker 1: Though. You get these these children movies and these kids
[8:16] Speaker 1: movies and Aladdin and Lion King, and then they make
[8:18] Speaker 1: the games freaking impossible.
[8:21] Speaker 3: I will say the only satisfying one was Battle Toads
[8:24] Speaker 3: finally getting through the speeder bike level.
[8:26] Speaker 2: Exactly.
[8:27] Speaker 1: It's notoriously like the Heart one of the hardest games
[8:29] Speaker 1: like ever.
[8:30] Speaker 3: It is, but you eventually memorize it after doing it
[8:32] Speaker 3: seven and.
[8:33] Speaker 2: Fifty exactly, exactly. All right, I want to I want
[8:38] Speaker 2: to shift to our folks a little bit to football.
[8:40] Speaker 1: Here. My first question to you, I like to ask
[8:42] Speaker 1: this when people first hop on perspectives, But how would
[8:45] Speaker 1: you sort of describe yourself as.
[8:46] Speaker 2: An analyst anyone who hasn't listened to you and read
[8:48] Speaker 2: your work.
[8:49] Speaker 1: Would you say you're more numbers driven, you're more film driven,
[8:52] Speaker 1: Like what's your process?
[8:53] Speaker 2: Like, you know, we're about to start the season.
[8:55] Speaker 1: I mean we're for the record, we're recording this before
[8:57] Speaker 1: the Thursday night game, so this will be out on Friday.
[8:59] Speaker 2: Hope we won't talk too much about you know, those
[9:01] Speaker 2: teams tonight.
[9:02] Speaker 1: But even if we do, you guys now know, But
[9:04] Speaker 1: are you analyzing this stuff in spreadsheets more or you
[9:08] Speaker 1: know by by watching or a mix.
[9:10] Speaker 2: Of the both.
[9:11] Speaker 3: It's actually almost fifty to fifty. I hate to make
[9:14] Speaker 3: that the answer, but for everybody, the explanations behind it is,
[9:17] Speaker 3: I watch, I believe what I see. I believe what
[9:20] Speaker 3: I know. I don't think I'm the best watcher in
[9:23] Speaker 3: no business, Like I actually give that to Emory Hunt.
[9:24] Speaker 3: I think he's the best scout in the business. But like,
[9:27] Speaker 3: I recognize there's a ton of people out there who
[9:29] Speaker 3: watch and know football even better than I do. But
[9:32] Speaker 3: I've watched enough that, like I know things, and then
[9:35] Speaker 3: I use the numbers to go back and kind of
[9:37] Speaker 3: fact check myself. Like you know, I go through and
[9:39] Speaker 3: like find the metrics throughout the week, and I go independently,
[9:43] Speaker 3: like so I watch everything, I make notes on Sunday, Monday,
[9:46] Speaker 3: the other days and stuff like that. But then once
[9:48] Speaker 3: like we have access to true media, there's a million
[9:51] Speaker 3: sites out there we can go through. But then I
[9:53] Speaker 3: go through and like look for outliers, and then I
[9:55] Speaker 3: go through and look for things that maybe were important
[9:58] Speaker 3: to me, Like oh, I didn't expect Blank to do
[10:00] Speaker 3: this week. Let me go see if the numbers are
[10:03] Speaker 3: matching up with I think, and then I'll go back
[10:05] Speaker 3: and readjust so my like custom projection spreadsheet in the preseason.
[10:10] Speaker 3: It's like for people that don't believe me, and like, hey,
[10:12] Speaker 3: I don't believe your target share, I want to change it.
[10:14] Speaker 3: And that's kind of why I created it, is because
[10:17] Speaker 3: I don't think any of us are one hundred percent. No,
[10:19] Speaker 3: none of us are one hundred percent right, But I
[10:21] Speaker 3: like to go back and forth. So to say my rankings,
[10:24] Speaker 3: so to speak, would be like this is what I feel,
[10:27] Speaker 3: go through my projections and the metrics and all that
[10:29] Speaker 3: type of stuff, come back to my rankings, run it
[10:32] Speaker 3: through one more time, and then that's where I get
[10:34] Speaker 3: my final results. Kind of like going back and forth
[10:36] Speaker 3: and back and forth and back and forth.
[10:37] Speaker 1: I always hesitate asking that question because I think most
[10:40] Speaker 1: people will have some I mean they should have some mix, right,
[10:44] Speaker 1: I mean it might be more like eighty twenty or
[10:46] Speaker 1: something like that. But like you know, like Chris Harris
[10:48] Speaker 1: doesn't is going to be more you know you mentioned
[10:50] Speaker 1: him at the top of the show.
[10:51] Speaker 2: He'll be more film I'll be more data.
[10:53] Speaker 1: But it's not like like people are like shocked when
[10:55] Speaker 1: they learn that. I watch I literally throughout the week,
[10:58] Speaker 1: then watch every game from the previous week, and it's like, yeah,
[11:01] Speaker 1: I mean it's my job. I don't want to sound
[11:03] Speaker 1: like a moron when I'm on these podcasts and stuff,
[11:05] Speaker 1: you know, So you know, I just I just like
[11:08] Speaker 1: to sort of, you know, establish you know where you're
[11:10] Speaker 1: coming from with some of these takes before we really
[11:13] Speaker 1: dig in. But now that drafts are finished, I'm assuming
[11:16] Speaker 1: that are you done drafting?
[11:17] Speaker 2: Officially done drafting? That you have anymore?
[11:19] Speaker 3: No, I always try to make sure I don't have
[11:21] Speaker 3: anything come Labor Day, just because I want to hone
[11:23] Speaker 3: in on Week one. By the way, real quick credit
[11:26] Speaker 3: to you. JJ sent me the guide and I actually
[11:29] Speaker 3: read through and even that because I know you lean
[11:31] Speaker 3: more towards metrics, and I fact checked myself on some
[11:34] Speaker 3: of the rookies. Just give you an examples, so I
[11:35] Speaker 3: even like look to other people as well.
[11:37] Speaker 2: Thank you. I appreciate that, man, I appreciate that.
[11:39] Speaker 1: But now that that drafts are are over, what's one
[11:44] Speaker 1: strategy that you saw a lot of other teams use
[11:47] Speaker 1: this year? You know, it could be something that you
[11:50] Speaker 1: feel really confident in, or maybe even not, because I
[11:52] Speaker 1: think that there's a lot you know, there's a lot
[11:53] Speaker 1: of directions you can go here, But what's one strategy
[11:55] Speaker 1: that other teams used that you think was just not right?
[11:59] Speaker 1: You really couldn't understand why people were approaching their drafts
[12:02] Speaker 1: in that manner.
[12:04] Speaker 3: I can never get on board with this. I have
[12:06] Speaker 3: come around to saying, you know what, if you want
[12:09] Speaker 3: to go elite quarterback in round four, maybe round three,
[12:12] Speaker 3: depending on your setup. If you want to go elite
[12:13] Speaker 3: tight end, I always reference the Travis Kelcey years of
[12:16] Speaker 3: like you need to be a top ten wide receiver
[12:19] Speaker 3: to make that first round, let alone the second round,
[12:21] Speaker 3: or I should say second let alone first round value warranted.
[12:25] Speaker 3: And I don't have a problem going either direction if
[12:27] Speaker 3: you want to do one, like I said, late third,
[12:28] Speaker 3: early fourth, and of course I'm coming for your Twitter
[12:31] Speaker 3: handle with that, but I know you've changed throughout the
[12:33] Speaker 3: years and flexible. Yeah, but anyway, it's when they double
[12:36] Speaker 3: tap it. Like I even tried it once just to see, like, hey,
[12:40] Speaker 3: maybe I can get into this and see if there's
[12:43] Speaker 3: some type of way where like you know you have
[12:44] Speaker 3: that leg up at both and your team can come
[12:46] Speaker 3: out in a good shape. And I just don't see
[12:49] Speaker 3: it being in a good shape because you've sacrificed what
[12:51] Speaker 3: we know. When you go early quarterback or early tight end,
[12:54] Speaker 3: you're sacrificing your running back, wide receiver. You're playing catch up.
[12:57] Speaker 3: You offset it by having that quote unquote advantage, the
[13:00] Speaker 3: fact that that advantage has to be so stark for
[13:03] Speaker 3: to pay off, and when you double tap it, now
[13:06] Speaker 3: you're basically buying in saying I'm going to have a
[13:08] Speaker 3: quarterback that scores three to four more points than most.
[13:10] Speaker 3: Everybody else looks at two teams, same thing at tight end,
[13:13] Speaker 3: and if it just doesn't hit, you're looking at your team.
[13:16] Speaker 3: And I got to the eighth round, I'm like, man,
[13:18] Speaker 3: I'm still trying to play catch up with my running
[13:20] Speaker 3: backs and wide receivers, and I just I cannot buy
[13:23] Speaker 3: into it.
[13:23] Speaker 2: Yeah.
[13:24] Speaker 1: I feel like the only time I had a discussion
[13:26] Speaker 1: with Sean Siegel about this on A Perspective's episode, because
[13:29] Speaker 1: this year felt like there was that like dead spot
[13:31] Speaker 1: in like round three ish, like middle of round three
[13:34] Speaker 1: and into like round four, and that's where I was
[13:36] Speaker 1: like Okay, I can get that's around the time where
[13:38] Speaker 1: I can get behind like quarterback and whatnot if you
[13:40] Speaker 1: want to go that direction. But you know, it's very,
[13:44] Speaker 1: very difficult to take on that opportunity cost when it's
[13:47] Speaker 1: multiple one ze positions like that.
[13:49] Speaker 2: It's just you feel.
[13:50] Speaker 1: So far behind and you not only need the quarterback
[13:55] Speaker 1: and tight end to hit, but now because you're behind
[13:57] Speaker 1: at wide receiver, running back, you need those positions to
[13:59] Speaker 1: hit right like, because realistically you're now you know, two
[14:03] Speaker 1: rounds behind with some of these wide outs or running backs,
[14:06] Speaker 1: and so the guys that you did get early you
[14:09] Speaker 1: need them to hit or else then you're really falling
[14:11] Speaker 1: back and you don't have the depth to be able
[14:13] Speaker 1: to make up for it. So yeah, I mean you
[14:16] Speaker 1: see it every year. You see a lot in home
[14:18] Speaker 1: leagues and stuff like that, and you probably can get
[14:21] Speaker 1: away with it more in some home league environments you know,
[14:23] Speaker 1: ten team leagues and stuff, just because they're shallower. But yeah,
[14:26] Speaker 1: I think that's a good call out that it's just
[14:28] Speaker 1: really really tough to come back from. Is there a
[14:31] Speaker 1: player in your draft so you seem to walk away
[14:34] Speaker 1: with seemingly in like every draft, So there.
[14:37] Speaker 3: Was a couple like Travion Henderson until late until everybody
[14:41] Speaker 3: started doing it, a lot of Matthew Golden and Cedric
[14:44] Speaker 3: Tillman and just because of last year, but the one
[14:47] Speaker 3: that is the most and as I say this, he's
[14:49] Speaker 3: in my thirties for wide receivers because he has a
[14:51] Speaker 3: terrible Week one matchup. And I even said be patient
[14:54] Speaker 3: if you don't draft him, maybe go throughout a little
[14:56] Speaker 3: bawl after after Week one because Calvin Ridley faced the
[14:59] Speaker 3: broncos I was gonna say, it's gotta be Ridley, right,
[15:02] Speaker 3: You're gonna guess one hundred percent. And like the fact is,
[15:04] Speaker 3: it's not just certain, like we can look at wide
[15:07] Speaker 3: receivers and understand teams will move them around. You can
[15:09] Speaker 3: avoid corners to a certain degree. Volume can offset it.
[15:12] Speaker 3: But it's also when you had that team around a
[15:14] Speaker 3: corner like certain that you're gonna be like, Okay, maybe
[15:17] Speaker 3: maybe we will walk into a two for forty for
[15:19] Speaker 3: one week, but the schedule overall is good. And the
[15:22] Speaker 3: continued thing that I kept saying is like we were
[15:24] Speaker 3: so excited Terry McLaurin with Jada McDaniels last year and
[15:28] Speaker 3: Bo Nix and what he did for Courtland Sutton, and
[15:30] Speaker 3: it's like, I know not a lot of people are
[15:31] Speaker 3: like super high on cam Ward, but if you look
[15:34] Speaker 3: at his profile and the way that he's throwing the
[15:36] Speaker 3: deep ball, already doing it in the preseason and practices,
[15:39] Speaker 3: and the fact that last year Calvin Ridley was a
[15:42] Speaker 3: wide receiver three on one hundred and twenty targets with
[15:45] Speaker 3: only four red zone and one end zone target the
[15:49] Speaker 3: entire year. Crazy And this schedule is just their for
[15:52] Speaker 3: him after this week where it's not many more threats
[15:54] Speaker 3: throughout the season, a lot of games that were projecting
[15:57] Speaker 3: I put down clothes projecting to be potential shootout. And
[16:00] Speaker 3: as cam Ward, he's going to be aggressive with a
[16:02] Speaker 3: nice these deep bowl and I think Calvin Ridley, here's
[16:04] Speaker 3: the shocking stat.
[16:06] Speaker 2: Calvin Ridley's never had a thousand yard season. I was
[16:09] Speaker 2: shocked to see that, Like, yeah, see, I would have
[16:12] Speaker 2: bet money at least one. Yeah, that's pretty crazy. That's
[16:15] Speaker 2: pretty crazy.
[16:16] Speaker 3: So I have a ton of Calvin Ridley mostly because
[16:19] Speaker 3: you were getting a wide receiver three or four cost Yeah,
[16:22] Speaker 3: and I'm like this is somebody could be a wide
[16:23] Speaker 3: receiver two.
[16:24] Speaker 2: Yeah.
[16:24] Speaker 1: Something's really because like I've done shows and talked about
[16:27] Speaker 1: how you know, obviously rookie quarterbacks they impact their pass
[16:30] Speaker 1: catchers in a negative way versus a regular veteran quarterback
[16:33] Speaker 1: just because they don't throw the ball as much on
[16:35] Speaker 1: those teams and they're not gonna be as efficients, they're
[16:37] Speaker 1: not going to score as many touchdowns. However, However, because
[16:40] Speaker 1: I have Ridley as a player to target in the
[16:42] Speaker 1: draft guy this year, if you look at the wide
[16:44] Speaker 1: outs who have emerged and become like top twenty four,
[16:46] Speaker 1: top twelve wide receivers with rookie quarterbacks since like twenty
[16:50] Speaker 1: eleven or so, the average target share of the top
[16:53] Speaker 1: twenty four guys, there's like fourteen of them or something
[16:56] Speaker 1: like that, but the average target share among those guys
[16:59] Speaker 1: is twenty six percent. So essentially, like like, if a
[17:04] Speaker 1: wide receiver ends up emerging and being fine with a
[17:07] Speaker 1: rookie quarterback, it's because there's a lack of competition slash.
[17:10] Speaker 1: He's just getting peppered with targets on his team, right,
[17:13] Speaker 1: like a Keenan Allen or like a Reggie Wayne or whoever.
[17:16] Speaker 2: And there's getting peppered with targets.
[17:18] Speaker 1: And you look at Tennessee and this is a situation,
[17:21] Speaker 1: seems like a situation where that would be the case.
[17:24] Speaker 1: Like I think that Calvin Ridley could inch towards like
[17:26] Speaker 1: a thirty percent target share this year, Like like realistically,
[17:29] Speaker 1: you know, I like ELC, I am inner, but like
[17:31] Speaker 1: we can't just like assume that he's gonna take on
[17:34] Speaker 1: a massive target share. I love Chicka konk Will, but
[17:36] Speaker 1: we don't, you know, we can't make these assumptions with
[17:38] Speaker 1: guys who are not locked in. We can say we'll
[17:40] Speaker 1: draft them versus cost, but you know, I just I
[17:43] Speaker 1: wouldn't be shocked if we's like, like he could easily
[17:45] Speaker 1: be top five in the league.
[17:46] Speaker 2: And target share.
[17:47] Speaker 3: Yeah, oh, one hundred percent. And real quick to backtrack,
[17:50] Speaker 3: as people are probably screaming right now at your podcast,
[17:53] Speaker 3: I trip myself. One hundred receptions, not a thousand yards.
[17:55] Speaker 3: I went, okay, there, I was thinking of it. Yeah,
[17:57] Speaker 3: so that sounds a little bit more reasonable. But yeah,
[17:59] Speaker 3: I never one hundred receptions.
[18:00] Speaker 2: Who was high was.
[18:01] Speaker 3: Ninety and it was that year that he like blew up
[18:03] Speaker 3: for the Falcons, obviously, but hundred receptions everybody, not yours,
[18:07] Speaker 3: but yes, and that's the biggest thing. And I was
[18:09] Speaker 3: my mind was jumping ahead. Is that target share there?
[18:11] Speaker 3: I'm with you. I was a fan of au Manner.
[18:14] Speaker 3: I did a free guys article. I do it every
[18:16] Speaker 3: year over at the Athletic where it's like the guys
[18:18] Speaker 3: in the fourteenth, fifteenth, even undrafted rounds, and au Manner
[18:21] Speaker 3: was there and I was like, Hey, all he needs
[18:23] Speaker 3: to do is get past Tyler Lockett, who looked pretty
[18:25] Speaker 3: washed last year and Van Jefferson, who has two games
[18:28] Speaker 3: a year. Well, here's the good news. He's already passed
[18:30] Speaker 3: Van Jefferson. But your point being is au Manner is
[18:34] Speaker 3: not a first round talent like and we can be
[18:36] Speaker 3: excited about that at CONKU. We kind of wanted that
[18:39] Speaker 3: to happen after his rookie season because of the efficiency,
[18:41] Speaker 3: but he's kind of still a conque. Like you look
[18:43] Speaker 3: up and down this depth chart, And for all the
[18:46] Speaker 3: arguments people are making to be on McMillan and his
[18:48] Speaker 3: target share volume with the Panthers, why aren't we doing
[18:51] Speaker 3: the exact same thing for Ridley? So I'm with you
[18:53] Speaker 3: on that.
[18:53] Speaker 2: Yeah, one hundred percent.
[18:54] Speaker 1: Is there a player that you wish you drafted more,
[18:57] Speaker 1: but you just you just seem to not be able
[18:58] Speaker 1: to pull the trigger. Maybe because there's other players around him,
[19:02] Speaker 1: you know, just that you that you liked a little
[19:04] Speaker 1: bit more.
[19:05] Speaker 3: So I just said McMillan, he had tedor Roe. McMillan
[19:07] Speaker 3: was actually one of them, mostly because of course three
[19:10] Speaker 3: or four weeks ago, there was a lot more competition
[19:13] Speaker 3: for him there, and I was like, well, maybe he
[19:14] Speaker 3: doesn't get to one hundred and forty targets. Maybe this
[19:16] Speaker 3: isn't Malik Neighbors. And also Bryce Young being part of
[19:20] Speaker 3: it is like I'm I'm an apologist for Bryce Young.
[19:23] Speaker 3: But at the same time, I acknowledged so far throughout
[19:25] Speaker 3: his career he's been much better than the intermediate game.
[19:28] Speaker 3: So I was worried about a dot. I was worried
[19:29] Speaker 3: about how many are catchable. I could have seen a
[19:32] Speaker 3: Calva Ridley liked season for him, which is still good.
[19:35] Speaker 3: It's just people wanted to take him aside the top twenty.
[19:37] Speaker 3: But the biggest one in this has to do with
[19:39] Speaker 3: the quarterback situation, and like I was just not drafting
[19:43] Speaker 3: Tyler Warren. I actually did a show a month ago
[19:47] Speaker 3: and it was like takes on the season, and then
[19:49] Speaker 3: I was like, one of them is we won't have
[19:51] Speaker 3: a single rookie tight end one this year. We've been
[19:53] Speaker 3: way too spoiled the last two seasons. Well that was
[19:56] Speaker 3: before Daniel Jones in his intermediate game, took over at
[19:58] Speaker 3: quarterback and he's just gonna pepper the heck out of
[20:01] Speaker 3: Tyler Warren. So for differing reasons, I just did. And
[20:06] Speaker 3: Tyler Warren being especially in that seventh eighth round is like,
[20:09] Speaker 3: that's usually where I'm loading back up on wide receivers
[20:11] Speaker 3: or running back. That fell. So to your point, it
[20:14] Speaker 3: was more about the names that were there that I
[20:16] Speaker 3: didn't want to invest, and he never made it to me.
[20:18] Speaker 3: But now I'm definitely like, well, I wish I would
[20:21] Speaker 3: have had a few more.
[20:22] Speaker 2: I have like one share.
[20:23] Speaker 3: McMillan and one share of Warren, and I'm like, I
[20:25] Speaker 3: wish I had more.
[20:25] Speaker 1: Now, Yeah, No, Look, the Tyler Warren thing is really
[20:28] Speaker 1: interesting to me because I, you know, I was drafting
[20:31] Speaker 1: it because I you know, I did tons of Best
[20:32] Speaker 1: Ball drafts and stuff, and I was drafting him when
[20:34] Speaker 1: he was like a tenth round pick and it was easy.
[20:36] Speaker 1: But he got on draftings like he got like late
[20:40] Speaker 1: sixth adp like towards the end of the of the
[20:42] Speaker 1: off season and I couldn't get there, and I you know,
[20:46] Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter and stuff, and I see really respected
[20:48] Speaker 1: analysts who I adore, like saying like really really great
[20:52] Speaker 1: things about Tyler Warren And look, I liked him as
[20:54] Speaker 1: a prospect.
[20:55] Speaker 2: I like Colson Lovelin.
[20:55] Speaker 1: As a prospect, and if they tested I would have
[20:58] Speaker 1: probably liked them even more were able to show off
[21:00] Speaker 1: their athleticism a little bit. But I also look at
[21:04] Speaker 1: Indianapolis and I say to myself, Okay, if you're gonna
[21:07] Speaker 1: be in on Tyler Warren, like, I get the upside
[21:10] Speaker 1: case because he's good. But at the same time, I
[21:13] Speaker 1: like Michael Pittman's been a target machine since he's been there, right,
[21:17] Speaker 1: twenty five percent target chairs basically like yearly for him and.
[21:21] Speaker 2: Then Josh Downs.
[21:22] Speaker 1: Last year, only Pouka and Aa Kua and Moliku neighbors
[21:25] Speaker 1: were better in target's perrow run than Josh Downs. I mean, like,
[21:29] Speaker 1: you have two really really solid target getters, and historically
[21:32] Speaker 1: we've seen tight ends break out when they are a
[21:35] Speaker 1: top two option.
[21:37] Speaker 2: You know, within their offense.
[21:38] Speaker 1: And then you know, we're also talking Daniel, Like I
[21:41] Speaker 1: agree that Daniel Jones is definitely definitely the better fit
[21:44] Speaker 1: for Tyler Warren.
[21:45] Speaker 2: I wish I had more season long Tyler Warren.
[21:47] Speaker 1: But it just got to the point towards the end
[21:49] Speaker 1: of the you know, towards the end of the draft season,
[21:51] Speaker 1: where like it was just hard for me to pull
[21:53] Speaker 1: the trigger based on where he was going. But I
[21:56] Speaker 1: you know, I'm not like I didn't fade, but like you,
[21:58] Speaker 1: it just got to a point it seemed like where
[22:02] Speaker 1: it seemed like the hype was just getting a little
[22:03] Speaker 1: bit out of control. And I we could easily, because
[22:05] Speaker 1: it is a talented rookie tight end, we could easily
[22:08] Speaker 1: look back on this podcast and be.
[22:10] Speaker 2: Like, man, these guys are idiots, right because he's.
[22:13] Speaker 1: But situationally, it just it's just doesn't seem like it's
[22:18] Speaker 1: there that much, right, Like it just like, are you
[22:22] Speaker 1: like even now knowing Danny Dimes is starting for them,
[22:26] Speaker 1: Like do you do you think that he's a locked
[22:28] Speaker 1: in top six tight end and eighty by you know,
[22:31] Speaker 1: in ranks or top top seven, Like are you are
[22:33] Speaker 1: you taking him over like TJ Hokinson right now?
[22:37] Speaker 3: No? And I mean part of that's because Jordan Asden suspended,
[22:41] Speaker 3: But Hawkinson's a great one.
[22:42] Speaker 2: You bring that up.
[22:43] Speaker 3: Hockinson's season when he was rookie was basically kind of
[22:47] Speaker 3: last man standing. Go back to Evan Ingram years and
[22:49] Speaker 3: years ago with the Giants last man standing, Sam Laporta,
[22:52] Speaker 3: almost everybody else got hurt. And like, that's your point,
[22:55] Speaker 3: is that you have to be a top two option
[22:57] Speaker 3: to really click. And even that, Daniel Jones, I do
[23:01] Speaker 3: think they're going back to Anthony and Richardson at some point,
[23:03] Speaker 3: which means, yeah, you stock up for Alec Pierce, but
[23:08] Speaker 3: stock down for pretty much anybody else. I think Downs
[23:11] Speaker 3: can play with either of them. This is why I
[23:13] Speaker 3: took a lot of flyers on Josh Downs late and
[23:15] Speaker 3: especially in Best Ball, but I think that he hurts
[23:17] Speaker 3: Pittman a little bit less so Downs. But the big
[23:20] Speaker 3: winner is Piers, but the big downturn would be for
[23:22] Speaker 3: Warren and then the underneath games. So that was part
[23:25] Speaker 3: of the reason too. It's just the cost was always
[23:27] Speaker 3: so prohibitive, and like I always it's like not like
[23:30] Speaker 3: a T shirt or anything like that, but I always say,
[23:32] Speaker 3: don't buy all the risk. I feel like Warren, as
[23:34] Speaker 3: you said in the sixth round, you're buying everything risk
[23:38] Speaker 3: wise and there's almost zero upside left.
[23:40] Speaker 2: Yeah, especially because that range still has really good wide
[23:42] Speaker 2: receivers like that.
[23:43] Speaker 1: That's that was the hardest part for me, is that
[23:44] Speaker 1: I'm sitting there looking at like you know that like
[23:47] Speaker 1: these these like Romadoonza and stuff, and I'm like, I
[23:50] Speaker 1: can't take Tyler Warren over Romadonza.
[23:52] Speaker 2: I just can't do it, you know.
[23:53] Speaker 1: So it was It's been a really weird journey for
[23:56] Speaker 1: me with with Warren. You know, I have enough where
[23:58] Speaker 1: like if he does have a good season and bast ball,
[24:00] Speaker 1: I'm not totally toast, but I do think that some
[24:03] Speaker 1: people it got a little out of hand, like I
[24:05] Speaker 1: couldn't call him like my my league winning tight end
[24:08] Speaker 1: just based on the cost and based I'll based on
[24:10] Speaker 1: how how things were changing if you were to give
[24:13] Speaker 1: Since you are the all in kid, I'm gonna I'm
[24:15] Speaker 1: gonna ask you to give a gray area answer and
[24:17] Speaker 1: not an all in answer. What kind of odd just
[24:19] Speaker 1: a percent chance? Okay, zero to one hundred that Daniel Jones.
[24:24] Speaker 2: Let's here.
[24:25] Speaker 1: I'll send an over under Daniel Jones games played, Okay,
[24:29] Speaker 1: and then I'll move it based on how confident and
[24:31] Speaker 1: how quickly you answer this, Uh, we'll start at.
[24:33] Speaker 2: Eight and a half games, hmm under, Oh you go under? Okay, okay,
[24:39] Speaker 2: that's where.
[24:39] Speaker 1: Yeah, do you think do you think that there's a
[24:42] Speaker 1: like I could really see a scenario where the Colts
[24:45] Speaker 1: Now the one thing that's making me not feel as
[24:47] Speaker 1: strong is that I think the division is just up
[24:48] Speaker 1: for grabs in general, so like they might be more
[24:50] Speaker 1: competitive than we think. But I think there's a chance
[24:53] Speaker 1: that like Stich and Anne Jones are both gone at
[24:56] Speaker 1: the same time, basically right where where they fire him
[24:59] Speaker 1: and and Anthony richards then the new coach steps up,
[25:02] Speaker 1: and then Anthony Richardson's just the starter and they see
[25:05] Speaker 1: what they have in him, and then that's how the
[25:06] Speaker 1: season kind of goes, you know. But I'm with you,
[25:09] Speaker 1: like I I'm hesitant to say that that you know,
[25:12] Speaker 1: Dimes is gonna be their like seventeen game answer. You know,
[25:16] Speaker 1: it's similar to I think like Flacco, Like, who do
[25:19] Speaker 1: you think plays more games? Is year Joe Flacco or Daniel.
[25:21] Speaker 2: Jones If hell's not involve Flacco.
[25:24] Speaker 3: Okay, Okay, I think so here, Like I'm a conspiracy
[25:28] Speaker 3: theorist on this one, and I'm not usually down this road.
[25:30] Speaker 3: But here's what, So I think Flacco's basically the quarterback
[25:33] Speaker 3: until week fourteen when they decide whether it's Sanders at
[25:37] Speaker 3: Gabriel like one of those like we're gonna make it through.
[25:39] Speaker 3: You know, maybe they're if they're one and eleven. Maybe
[25:42] Speaker 3: it happens a little bit before that, Like I just
[25:44] Speaker 3: don't think until like things are toast toast. The thing
[25:47] Speaker 3: with Daniel Jones is this is where I went with it.
[25:49] Speaker 3: It's like, all right, so if you're styching, you start
[25:51] Speaker 3: Anthony and Richardson. He has a bad game, what happens
[25:53] Speaker 3: immediately after the game. Are you gonna turn to Daniel
[25:55] Speaker 3: Jones next week? Turning to Daniel Jones? Turn it Dania Jones,
[25:57] Speaker 3: Turn it Dani Jels. With Daniel Jones, we know who
[26:01] Speaker 3: he is. I mean, we saw this in preseason when
[26:03] Speaker 3: the beat Reporters the very first seven on seven. I'm
[26:06] Speaker 3: sure you remember this. The first day, they're like, Daniel
[26:08] Speaker 3: Jones overthrew a wide open Alec Pierce.
[26:10] Speaker 2: He's the Daniel Jones we've always known.
[26:12] Speaker 3: So I was saying, like, wait for him to have
[26:14] Speaker 3: a bad game or two, then you turn to Anthony
[26:16] Speaker 3: and Richardson, he has a bad gamer two.
[26:18] Speaker 2: It's like, well, we can't go back to Daniel Jones.
[26:20] Speaker 2: We know what he is. So there's my conspiracy.
[26:22] Speaker 3: Theorist of it is that you're just waiting for two
[26:24] Speaker 3: bad games for Daniel Jones. You go back to Anthony
[26:26] Speaker 3: and Richardson hopefully that you save his career, and if not,
[26:30] Speaker 3: you move on and you have a top three pick.
[26:32] Speaker 5: Yeah.
[26:32] Speaker 1: I mean that's the thing, like when you're a coach
[26:34] Speaker 1: on the hot seat, because I feel the same way.
[26:36] Speaker 2: With like Brian Dable right in New York. You're a
[26:38] Speaker 2: Giants fan, aren't you, right? No, I gave them up.
[26:41] Speaker 3: So speaking to Daniel Jones as soon as they drafted,
[26:43] Speaker 3: I'm like, I'm done with the Giants. I'll give him
[26:45] Speaker 3: one year to prove me wrong. And prove me wrong,
[26:47] Speaker 3: I'm like, I'm out, I'm done. And then you've watched
[26:49] Speaker 3: this organization for the last six years. They do everything
[26:53] Speaker 3: possible to make the wrong decision. I will give credit
[26:55] Speaker 3: the last two years they're kind of coming around a
[26:57] Speaker 3: little bit. But I can't. I can't play this anymore.
[27:00] Speaker 3: Plus my fantasy guys, it's hard to root for die.
[27:03] Speaker 2: I totally, I totally get it.
[27:04] Speaker 1: I uh. But but like with the Giants, like Brian
[27:06] Speaker 1: Dable to me like like he's on the hot seat,
[27:10] Speaker 1: like if if things don't like if they don't show
[27:12] Speaker 1: some promise this year, then he could easily be gone
[27:15] Speaker 1: next year. And so from that perspective, like I think
[27:18] Speaker 1: that they're going to have to be more aggressive with
[27:20] Speaker 1: a quarterback change because if Jackson Dark comes in and
[27:23] Speaker 1: he shows that he's really good, then then Dable can
[27:25] Speaker 1: go to the front office be like, see told you
[27:26] Speaker 1: he's good, Let me develop.
[27:27] Speaker 2: Him and we could turn this into something.
[27:29] Speaker 1: And I feel similarly to like a guy like stich
[27:31] Speaker 1: In where it like you're like you're saying, if you
[27:34] Speaker 1: start with Anthony Richardson and you need to bench Anthony,
[27:37] Speaker 1: you can't go back right, Like you're that that's it's
[27:39] Speaker 1: very rare that we see like even like a Bryce
[27:41] Speaker 1: Young situation kind of go down where you know, you
[27:44] Speaker 1: sit him for a little bit and you know he
[27:45] Speaker 1: gets benchmin then I know injury kind of played a
[27:48] Speaker 1: role in him coming back and stuff, But like you
[27:50] Speaker 1: know that you rarely see that rebound favorably and you'd rather,
[27:54] Speaker 1: you know, as a coach, want to end the season,
[27:57] Speaker 1: you know, with at least some hope, you know, and
[27:59] Speaker 1: you wouldn't be able to do that with Daniel Jones.
[28:01] Speaker 1: So I think that's gonna be a very very interesting
[28:04] Speaker 1: situation to watch, especially with Tyler Warren. Are you inner
[28:08] Speaker 1: route generally this year with the rookie hype. Now I've
[28:11] Speaker 1: done an episode. I did an episode in July about
[28:15] Speaker 1: how ADP is rising with rookies, like we've seen you know,
[28:19] Speaker 1: higher ADPs with running backs and wide receivers. But do
[28:21] Speaker 1: you think it's now officially like gotten out of hand
[28:24] Speaker 1: or are you still drafting these guys.
[28:26] Speaker 3: I'd say mostly out of hand, just because it's spilling
[28:30] Speaker 3: into questionable situations and people that are buried. That's the
[28:34] Speaker 3: issue is that, as you said month, two months ago,
[28:37] Speaker 3: I was loving Trevon Henderson in the fifth and sixth round,
[28:39] Speaker 3: and then he's all the way up into the third, which, hey,
[28:42] Speaker 3: it might work out, but now the opportunity cost again others,
[28:46] Speaker 3: you know, RJ. Harvey was actually they were flipped to RJ.
[28:48] Speaker 3: Harvey was more in the fourth round immediately after the
[28:50] Speaker 3: draft because they're like, oh, new album, Kamara. But it's
[28:53] Speaker 3: not just the fact of how deep this running back
[28:55] Speaker 3: class is as you know, but they're all falling, like
[28:57] Speaker 3: most of them are falling into split backfield where we're
[29:00] Speaker 3: kind of hoping we can reject and we're hoping that
[29:02] Speaker 3: the younger talent takes over. But as I said, it's
[29:05] Speaker 3: like spilling into the wide receivers as well. Even though
[29:08] Speaker 3: I'm teasing it, but I do have a hot take
[29:10] Speaker 3: that involves a rookie. But anyway, like the IU manner
[29:13] Speaker 3: which you brought up, you know, I did a show
[29:15] Speaker 3: two weeks ago and I was talking about Kyle Williams
[29:18] Speaker 3: and I'm not a huge Kyle Williams fan. I was like,
[29:19] Speaker 3: but you know he could develop, and they're like, oh,
[29:21] Speaker 3: Kyle Williams tested this and everything like that. Like the
[29:24] Speaker 3: dude is like sixth on the depth chart. Let's like
[29:26] Speaker 3: he can't even get Kat past Kayshaun Booty, Like, let's
[29:29] Speaker 3: relax a little bit. So I think that's where it
[29:31] Speaker 3: falls down to. And like the Colston love one one,
[29:34] Speaker 3: you know, he's not as high as Tyler Warren, but
[29:36] Speaker 3: people wanting to draft Colston Lovelin as a top ten
[29:38] Speaker 3: tight end. I'm like, even if he is, which we
[29:40] Speaker 3: assume he's passed comment like they have three wide receivers
[29:43] Speaker 3: and actually their other rookie is now buried behind Zakiyas,
[29:46] Speaker 3: Like you just have to understand the situation. So I
[29:49] Speaker 3: say yes, just because I'm okay with the Henderson's, I'm
[29:52] Speaker 3: okay with Hampton and all the rest like that. But
[29:55] Speaker 3: it's when you start to trickle down to that second level,
[29:57] Speaker 3: which most of them are going to need at LEAs
[30:00] Speaker 3: tap for a full year before we really see fantasy value.
[30:03] Speaker 2: Yeah.
[30:03] Speaker 1: I also think that this could be where Best Ball
[30:05] Speaker 1: brain had because I get a lot of feedback from
[30:07] Speaker 1: people being like, do you think the questions and stuff
[30:09] Speaker 1: like do you think that Best Ball is going to
[30:11] Speaker 1: change the way that people draft in season long and
[30:13] Speaker 1: stuff like that?
[30:13] Speaker 2: And in Best Ball, you know rookies, people are going to.
[30:17] Speaker 1: Attack rookies because obviously in Best Ball, playoff weeks are
[30:20] Speaker 1: so important, and you you know, don't have the luxury
[30:22] Speaker 1: of just like being like, you know what, I'll let
[30:24] Speaker 1: Tory Horton, you know, just sit on the waiver wire
[30:26] Speaker 1: and I'll I'll just pounce on him earlier than the
[30:28] Speaker 1: rest of my league mates.
[30:29] Speaker 2: You gotta draft the dude, right, And so in Best ball.
[30:32] Speaker 1: You're drafting these guys and you're elevating them because you
[30:34] Speaker 1: know that rookies will you know, come together and be
[30:37] Speaker 1: able to give some more production and better performances down
[30:41] Speaker 1: the stretch that can half the year, you know, in
[30:42] Speaker 1: the fantasy playoffs and stuff. Just historically it's what we've seen,
[30:45] Speaker 1: but in a managed season long league, it is a
[30:48] Speaker 1: little bit different. Like I've I've kind of tinkered with
[30:51] Speaker 1: the idea, and I'll ask you how you kind of
[30:54] Speaker 1: handle this, Like Tory Horton's probably a good example because
[30:57] Speaker 1: I like Horton, but I also recognize that the chance
[31:01] Speaker 1: that he like comes out, you know, on fire or
[31:04] Speaker 1: it is pretty slim, like it's probably not gonna happen.
[31:06] Speaker 1: I hope it does, but more than likely not gonna happen.
[31:09] Speaker 1: And so in those situations, are you, like, let's say
[31:13] Speaker 1: that you love Horton or you love elk Ijamanner, right,
[31:16] Speaker 1: and now obviously he's he's starting.
[31:17] Speaker 2: Maybe he's not even that great of an.
[31:18] Speaker 1: Example, but regardless, like, are you drafting these guys and
[31:22] Speaker 1: holding them or are you saying to yourself, Okay, day three, rookies,
[31:26] Speaker 1: I know who they are. I've done my research, I
[31:28] Speaker 1: feel good about, like their place on this team. I'm
[31:31] Speaker 1: just gonna be a week ahead of my league mates,
[31:33] Speaker 1: hopefully in adding them off the wire, as opposed to
[31:37] Speaker 1: you know, holding onto this roster spot that I'll probably
[31:40] Speaker 1: end up dropping some of these guys and then you're
[31:41] Speaker 1: gonna regret that towards the end of the year whenever
[31:43] Speaker 1: someone else picks them up.
[31:45] Speaker 3: Yeah. I think that really comes down to, like what
[31:47] Speaker 3: is your bench? And you know, I did another article
[31:50] Speaker 3: not to be like, oh, look at all my articles,
[31:51] Speaker 3: but I did an article that one of the biggest
[31:53] Speaker 3: mistakes people make is mismanaging their benches. And it's usually
[31:56] Speaker 3: coming out of the draft with a bunch of replaceable
[31:59] Speaker 3: options that you can find, i know, waivers every single week.
[32:01] Speaker 3: But the other part of it is these handcuff running
[32:04] Speaker 3: backs or these upside wide receivers that people draft and
[32:06] Speaker 3: then they drop two weeks in. What was the point
[32:08] Speaker 3: in drafted? Like, you draft Trey Benson, James Connor is
[32:11] Speaker 3: healthy for the two weeks and you drop them. Why
[32:13] Speaker 3: did you draft Trey Benson? You should have never drafted
[32:15] Speaker 3: them in the first place. So I think that's the
[32:17] Speaker 3: question people have to ask themselves because I don't want
[32:20] Speaker 3: to give a carte blanche answer because it's like, hey,
[32:22] Speaker 3: you know, I have a seven man bench and my
[32:25] Speaker 3: home league. I can hold on to Alu manor for
[32:27] Speaker 3: half the season and then finally be like, all right,
[32:30] Speaker 3: it's not happening. You have a four or five man bench,
[32:32] Speaker 3: it might be a little bit different, but I think
[32:34] Speaker 3: you have to kind of, you know, create a narrative
[32:36] Speaker 3: for yourself, so to speak, or like the narrative of
[32:39] Speaker 3: how does it happen? So Tory Horton, I think that's
[32:41] Speaker 3: a really good one, because Cooper Cup looks toast. Cooper
[32:44] Speaker 3: Cup gets hurt again, all of a sudden, Tory Horton matters,
[32:48] Speaker 3: and but that's not going to happen without that. So
[32:50] Speaker 3: if four weeks into the season, you know, Cup looks
[32:53] Speaker 3: like Cup from even eighty ninety percent of Cup from
[32:57] Speaker 3: two or three years ago, and you're like, well, then
[32:59] Speaker 3: I could just drop Horton because this is just not
[33:00] Speaker 3: gonna happen unless he gets hurt and then, like you said,
[33:02] Speaker 3: a week ahead. So it really comes down to I
[33:05] Speaker 3: try to wait as long as possible, basically into the
[33:07] Speaker 3: buys and like I need to, And that's just my
[33:11] Speaker 3: worst player. But if I'm drafting for upside like that,
[33:14] Speaker 3: and like the trade bens, it's especially handcuffs, but even
[33:16] Speaker 3: higher wide receivers, then it's going to take a lot
[33:18] Speaker 3: for me to let go because those guys gonna be
[33:21] Speaker 3: a top thirty wide receivers. If everything hits, I go
[33:24] Speaker 3: pick up Demaro Douglas. He's gonna be wide receiver forty
[33:27] Speaker 3: Like cool, Like, I'll pass them Demaro Douglas to hold
[33:30] Speaker 3: on to one if I can put it back.
[33:31] Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it makes sense.
[33:32] Speaker 1: We see breakout offenses every year. Are there any offenses
[33:35] Speaker 1: that you think are gonna surprise people? Because obviously, if
[33:37] Speaker 1: the offense goes off, more than likely multiple players in
[33:41] Speaker 1: that offense are gonna be values from an ADP perspective.
[33:44] Speaker 3: Yeah. So, I don't know if you've heard the Bears
[33:46] Speaker 3: are supposed to be good with this Ben Johnson guy, Like,
[33:49] Speaker 3: I'm definitely not coming with the Bears. I think the
[33:52] Speaker 3: Jaguars would be like a very popular one because we
[33:56] Speaker 3: want Trevor Lawrence to be that generational talent that we
[33:58] Speaker 3: always thought he was going to be. They have Travis Hunter,
[34:01] Speaker 3: Liam Cohen and all the rest. I still have that
[34:05] Speaker 3: offensive line like and I'm not an offensive line like evaluator.
[34:09] Speaker 3: I trust everything. But when you see multiple sites being
[34:11] Speaker 3: like one of the worst, the worst, this is gonna
[34:14] Speaker 3: be bad, Like it makes me hesitant a little bit
[34:16] Speaker 3: on how much they're gonna break out. And again it's
[34:18] Speaker 3: kind of like you said, I lean into more like
[34:21] Speaker 3: didn't see coming like you you asked versus, like we
[34:24] Speaker 3: know the Jaguars, we know the Bears.
[34:26] Speaker 2: So there was two that I thought of. I almost
[34:28] Speaker 2: said the Panthers.
[34:29] Speaker 3: But what's after McMillan, Like, you know, I hope we
[34:33] Speaker 3: get kind of I would say, bounces back whatever, just
[34:35] Speaker 3: better than he was as a rookie. But even after that,
[34:37] Speaker 3: it's kind of like, yeah, Jit Tamian Sanders is interesting
[34:40] Speaker 3: in a deep league, we get deeply like where's that
[34:42] Speaker 3: really gonna go? So call me crazy, I gonna go
[34:46] Speaker 3: back to We've already mentioned the quarterback the Browns, like
[34:50] Speaker 3: they were going from like one of the worst. But
[34:53] Speaker 3: here's where I looked at it is like can I
[34:54] Speaker 3: get multiple pieces of fantasy value? So we already know
[34:57] Speaker 3: Jerry Judy, we know Joko stays hell healthy, Joe Flacco
[35:02] Speaker 3: by the way over forty four hundred yards in his
[35:04] Speaker 3: last seventeen starts. Ian Hardest keeps bringing up the fact
[35:06] Speaker 3: that you push it all the way up to forty
[35:08] Speaker 3: seven hundred if you include playoff starts, it's an insane number. Yeah,
[35:11] Speaker 3: so Cedric Tillman involved, and then right out of the gate,
[35:16] Speaker 3: this is a rookie that I do like. Is like,
[35:18] Speaker 3: I just think Dylan Samson needs more attention, Like I
[35:20] Speaker 3: think he can be there Austin Eckler and the consistent
[35:24] Speaker 3: option where Jerome Ford is Drome Ford.
[35:26] Speaker 2: But in a split.
[35:26] Speaker 3: Backfield, I want the pass catcher. Joe Flacco is going
[35:29] Speaker 3: to keep throwing. We've got two wide receivers, a tight end,
[35:32] Speaker 3: a running back, and then if Judkins ever shows up,
[35:34] Speaker 3: like Ford's a fine RB three, but if Jenkins' situation
[35:37] Speaker 3: ever clears out, we know he has top twenty upside,
[35:39] Speaker 3: and then Joe Flacco can be a streamer, Like, hell,
[35:42] Speaker 3: you want to stream him this week?
[35:43] Speaker 2: And to stream him over c J. Stroud and Caleb
[35:46] Speaker 2: Williams go right ahead. Yeah, Yeah, I mean I think
[35:49] Speaker 2: he's a legit option this week.
[35:50] Speaker 1: And it's crazy to say that for a forty year old,
[35:53] Speaker 1: you know, quarterback but yeah, I mean, like if you
[35:55] Speaker 1: look at it from a value perspective, I get it.
[35:57] Speaker 2: I was.
[35:58] Speaker 1: I was more into Tillman than you you know from
[36:01] Speaker 1: it from a value perspective this season, just because I
[36:04] Speaker 1: mean Tilman last year, that final month he had like
[36:06] Speaker 1: a twenty two percent target share in that offense, right
[36:08] Speaker 1: like he was getting used and he should more likely
[36:12] Speaker 1: to still be used, you know, just given what they
[36:13] Speaker 1: have around him, and then that backfield. I think that
[36:17] Speaker 1: you know, we'll probably see Jerome Ford, like get just
[36:19] Speaker 1: because he's.
[36:20] Speaker 2: The veteran, and they'll they might go with the veteran
[36:22] Speaker 2: early on.
[36:23] Speaker 1: But Dylan Sampson, you know, I've said on this show
[36:25] Speaker 1: like Ford is the safer one, you know, maybe early
[36:28] Speaker 1: on the season like negative game script kind of back too.
[36:31] Speaker 1: But Dylan Sampson to me, has the upside of the two,
[36:34] Speaker 1: you know, and especially you know if Judkins doesn't, you.
[36:38] Speaker 2: Know, like I do.
[36:39] Speaker 1: We have no idea what's gonna go on with Judkins,
[36:40] Speaker 1: you know, like we just just zero clue, So there
[36:43] Speaker 1: could be some value value out of did you say
[36:45] Speaker 1: you had tours?
[36:46] Speaker 2: Is the Browns You're.
[36:46] Speaker 1: Find You're gonna walk away from this podcast with the
[36:49] Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns as your number one answer.
[36:52] Speaker 3: Breakout offense, Well, because I didn't want to go obvious
[36:54] Speaker 3: with the bearser Jaguars.
[36:56] Speaker 2: I wanted to be a little over there.
[36:57] Speaker 3: Hey, let me ask you a question. Do you think
[37:00] Speaker 3: like if we got to week seventeen and Cedric Tillman
[37:04] Speaker 3: had more fancy points than Jerry Judy, would you be
[37:06] Speaker 3: falling out of your chair shocked? No?
[37:09] Speaker 2: Yeah, Jerry, I've said it many times on this show.
[37:11] Speaker 1: Judy was the same player last year that he's always
[37:14] Speaker 1: been in my opinion, like he wasn't anything like if
[37:16] Speaker 1: you look at all of his his per route run numbers,
[37:19] Speaker 1: if you watch him, like, I didn't see anything like
[37:21] Speaker 1: special or different.
[37:22] Speaker 2: The thing that was different is that he ran more
[37:24] Speaker 2: routes than.
[37:25] Speaker 1: Any other player in football last year, right, Like they
[37:27] Speaker 1: were dropping back the past so much, and he was
[37:29] Speaker 1: just he's just a volume getter, right and and he
[37:31] Speaker 1: was obviously the de facto dude, you know, one Cedric
[37:34] Speaker 1: Tilman went you know, they trade Amari Cooper and then
[37:36] Speaker 1: and then Cedric.
[37:37] Speaker 2: Tillman you know, goes down.
[37:39] Speaker 1: I would obviously, you know, give the edge to Judy,
[37:41] Speaker 1: but I wouldn't be it wouldn't be like a shocking
[37:44] Speaker 1: revelation if we just see Tilman, you know, find the
[37:46] Speaker 1: end zone eight times and Judy only finds it four
[37:49] Speaker 1: or something like that, and maybe the target sharers or
[37:52] Speaker 1: Judy's only like one or two percentage points higher.
[37:54] Speaker 3: I think that's definitely the range of outcomes here. Yeah, yeah,
[37:57] Speaker 3: I think so, I'll get I'll give you a bonus
[37:59] Speaker 3: one to that. To be a Browns I hope for
[38:01] Speaker 3: fancy purposes, I have egg on my face. I'm not
[38:03] Speaker 3: a Jackson Dart guy. I hope I'm wrong. And all
[38:06] Speaker 3: of a sudden, Jackson Dart makes Malik neighbors either wand
[38:09] Speaker 3: Dell or Slate and THEO Johnson, which, by the way,
[38:11] Speaker 3: THEO Johnson you talk about metrics and testing off the
[38:14] Speaker 3: charts before there was Tyler Warren at Penn State. Yeah,
[38:17] Speaker 3: like THEO Johnson becomes a thing that backfield is productive
[38:20] Speaker 3: with two running backs, Like I don't see it, but
[38:23] Speaker 3: I would kind of hope I was wrong just for
[38:24] Speaker 3: the fun of it.
[38:25] Speaker 1: If Jackson Dart is legit, and he's looked legit so
[38:27] Speaker 1: far in my opinion, I know, like like if that's there,
[38:30] Speaker 1: I mean, like they there was also that one tweet
[38:34] Speaker 1: slash quote I saw from someone reporting on the Giants.
[38:39] Speaker 1: I don't know because this is just off the top
[38:40] Speaker 1: of my head, but apparently Brian Dable like went up
[38:43] Speaker 1: to Jackson Dart and just told him that he loves
[38:45] Speaker 1: him or something like that in the locker room, like
[38:46] Speaker 1: just straight up, you know, and just mentioning how much heat.
[38:50] Speaker 1: So like maybe maybe that quarterback change happens sooner rather
[38:53] Speaker 1: than later. All right, let's talk about some controversial players,
[38:57] Speaker 1: because there's a lot of.
[38:57] Speaker 2: Them this year.
[38:58] Speaker 1: Almost every round there's to be one. So I'm gonna
[39:01] Speaker 1: go player by player. We talked about one of them,
[39:03] Speaker 1: cause we already talked about Tyler Warren's we don't think
[39:05] Speaker 1: get the Tyler Warren And you know, we'll see how
[39:06] Speaker 1: many we get to here. But the first one to
[39:08] Speaker 1: start with is ashing genty. Your general thoughts and when
[39:11] Speaker 1: I say general thoughts, you know, were you drafting them
[39:13] Speaker 1: a lot, did you find them as a value as
[39:15] Speaker 1: someone who you're avoiding, and just your general thoughts in.
[39:18] Speaker 3: That player, somebody that almost had zero shares of because
[39:22] Speaker 3: when I was at the mid back half of the
[39:24] Speaker 3: first round, I was still taking Jacobs and Kyral Williams
[39:27] Speaker 3: over him, and maybe I look stupid for that one,
[39:29] Speaker 3: but I just I have questions how many receptions is
[39:32] Speaker 3: going to get. I know that's the same argument it
[39:34] Speaker 3: can make for Kyraen, but that's where I gave Jacobs
[39:36] Speaker 3: the edge, especially with Marshall Lloyd hurt, and then the
[39:39] Speaker 3: fact of what's the touchdown is going to be or
[39:40] Speaker 3: like what's the equity going to be there? And I
[39:42] Speaker 3: would just lean to the rams. So it was a
[39:44] Speaker 3: very small margin where I still take Kyron, I still
[39:47] Speaker 3: take Jacobs, And it just fell down to, like I
[39:49] Speaker 3: have genty with Chase Brown, but by the time I picked,
[39:52] Speaker 3: if it was the end of the first round, he
[39:54] Speaker 3: was gone. If I was the middle of the first round,
[39:56] Speaker 3: I was taking somebody else, maybe even a wide receiver.
[39:58] Speaker 3: So I just never ended up with him because I
[40:00] Speaker 3: had a little bit more hesitation. B John Robinson was
[40:03] Speaker 3: RB eight as a rookie in what was a quote
[40:05] Speaker 3: unquote disappointing season, but everybody was taking him as the
[40:08] Speaker 3: second or third running back, like they can be really
[40:10] Speaker 3: good and not be the best.
[40:11] Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I to me, I was kind of like
[40:14] Speaker 1: a little bit below market just because I like the
[40:16] Speaker 1: wide receivers going around gent and it's just easier to
[40:19] Speaker 1: make those choices. But you know, genty to me was
[40:22] Speaker 1: generational in my prospect model, second best score behind CMC
[40:26] Speaker 1: and that dates back to twenty eleven.
[40:27] Speaker 2: So we'll see.
[40:28] Speaker 1: You just mentioned Kieron Williams. Let's talk about Kian Williams.
[40:31] Speaker 1: Sounds like you're in on Williams this year.
[40:33] Speaker 3: I am, And I'm not saying like I don't understand,
[40:36] Speaker 3: because like I'm smarter than anybody else. Like, there are
[40:39] Speaker 3: reasons to have doubts, but I think the biggest reason
[40:42] Speaker 3: got thrown out the window. The biggest fear we had,
[40:44] Speaker 3: and I said this before on my podcast, is like
[40:47] Speaker 3: I think Sean McVay makes good running backs. Great. Do
[40:50] Speaker 3: I think kiraon and Williams is Kira and Williams on
[40:53] Speaker 3: twenty other teams? No, And I think our biggest fear
[40:56] Speaker 3: was that when Sean Wick they gets tired of a
[40:58] Speaker 3: running back, he flips the script go to the other
[41:00] Speaker 3: one and it's like you're done, Like I'm moving on.
[41:02] Speaker 3: He's done it with Darryl Henderson and many others who
[41:05] Speaker 3: have were productive before it. So I think the fear was,
[41:08] Speaker 3: Oh my gosh, if it happens Blake, Korum, Darquez, Hunter,
[41:11] Speaker 3: whoever he turns to, it's gonna be done for Kyroen.
[41:14] Speaker 3: He got the contract. He's like, if Kyen has two
[41:16] Speaker 3: bad games, it's not gonna be like, well, we got
[41:18] Speaker 3: a bench him. Let's go see what we had in Korham.
[41:20] Speaker 3: And I think we took the biggest question mark and
[41:22] Speaker 3: threw it out the window. Where he's been RB six
[41:25] Speaker 3: each of the past two years. And I know two
[41:28] Speaker 3: years ago was a little bit better on a per
[41:30] Speaker 3: game basis than last year. So if you're talking about
[41:32] Speaker 3: per game basis, I think he's like RB nine or
[41:35] Speaker 3: ten last season. But if even falls in between, like
[41:37] Speaker 3: RB eight, just I still think he's a top ten
[41:40] Speaker 3: running back. I'm still taking him in front of some
[41:41] Speaker 3: of the other names that people wanted to put in
[41:43] Speaker 3: front of him, and just came down to I trust
[41:46] Speaker 3: the Rams, I trust McVeigh, and I trust now that
[41:48] Speaker 3: he has the contract. Because Kyron Williams, I'm sure you
[41:51] Speaker 3: remember this. Towards the end of the season, his prop
[41:53] Speaker 3: was eighteen nineteen and a half of carries and he
[41:57] Speaker 3: is cruising the over It's just he's going to get
[42:00] Speaker 3: the volume.
[42:01] Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, look, if he gets the volume, he'll
[42:03] Speaker 2: be totally fine.
[42:04] Speaker 1: My my my stance has been that I do think, like,
[42:08] Speaker 1: if you think his workload will be there, then you
[42:10] Speaker 1: should be drafting him if you like. I think there's
[42:14] Speaker 1: some fragility to it, you know, just from the standpoint
[42:17] Speaker 1: of the Rams. You know, they they don't they haven't
[42:19] Speaker 1: thrownder their running backs for six years now, you know,
[42:21] Speaker 1: it's been they've been bottom three and running back target share,
[42:24] Speaker 1: and it's been obnoxious from that. The crazy thing is
[42:26] Speaker 1: that Kayen Williams came into the league as a pass
[42:29] Speaker 1: catching back like that. That's I thought he was going
[42:32] Speaker 1: to play more of like a scatback role in the NFL,
[42:35] Speaker 1: you know, and and and that's not what he's done
[42:37] Speaker 1: at all, just given the way they deployed him. And
[42:39] Speaker 1: so the fragility aspect, to me is what scares me
[42:42] Speaker 1: a little bit is the like you know, he had
[42:45] Speaker 1: last year. I don't think he's going to reach the
[42:47] Speaker 1: eighty five percent like running back rush share that he
[42:49] Speaker 1: had last year. But you know, if he's in that, like,
[42:51] Speaker 1: if he gets to a seventy percent share, let's say,
[42:54] Speaker 1: then we're starting to think like, oh, maybe the ceiling
[42:56] Speaker 1: won't hit, But if you feel confident, you know that
[42:59] Speaker 1: it'll be there.
[43:00] Speaker 2: For him, then yeah you should. You should be drafting him.
[43:02] Speaker 1: Let's talk about Tyreek Hill, who's not a captain anymore.
[43:05] Speaker 1: I don't know if you've heard about this or not,
[43:07] Speaker 1: so Tyreek Hill no longer a captain. Someone actually asked
[43:09] Speaker 1: the mailbag question this week of like, how much I
[43:12] Speaker 1: care about that? So I guess I'll throw it to you.
[43:14] Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill no longer a captain of the Dolphins. People
[43:17] Speaker 1: have been like either way in saying that he is
[43:21] Speaker 1: one of the best values in drafts this year or
[43:22] Speaker 1: just way out saying they don't want to touch it
[43:24] Speaker 1: as the next Antonio Brown.
[43:25] Speaker 2: Where do you stand? Yeah, I could not care less
[43:29] Speaker 2: about the captain situation.
[43:32] Speaker 3: You just couldn't. And when it comes down to the
[43:34] Speaker 3: Antonio Brown, like again, I don't think we can put
[43:37] Speaker 3: Antonio Brown basically on anybody else in existence. That's the
[43:40] Speaker 3: whole bag of his own. It comes down to like
[43:42] Speaker 3: we are talking about somebody approaching thirty two reliant on speed.
[43:45] Speaker 3: So I get the hesitancy, but I also get that
[43:48] Speaker 3: just two years ago heading at twenty nine into his
[43:50] Speaker 3: thirty year old season, then he still was top of
[43:53] Speaker 3: the league. So I think it comes down to I'm
[43:56] Speaker 3: okay with him, which kind of might sound like a
[43:58] Speaker 3: middle ground situation as a mid high end wide receiver two,
[44:02] Speaker 3: because I do think there still is the potential for
[44:04] Speaker 3: top five, but I bet on it absolutely not. That's
[44:06] Speaker 3: why he's not even a wide receiver one for me.
[44:08] Speaker 2: Do I think as a wide receiver Three?
[44:10] Speaker 5: No.
[44:10] Speaker 3: I think a hell of a lot went wrong for
[44:12] Speaker 3: the Dolphins last year. But I will say the reason
[44:15] Speaker 3: he is risky I think, in my opinion as a
[44:18] Speaker 3: wide receiver two still is because it's not just Hill.
[44:20] Speaker 3: There's so many factors there. It's two of getting hurt,
[44:23] Speaker 3: and we've seen what happens to this offense when he
[44:24] Speaker 3: gets hurt. But I also think it's on McDaniel. We
[44:27] Speaker 3: saw the NFL adjustin McDaniel last year. They said, you
[44:30] Speaker 3: know what, We're gonna stop playing you tight and letting
[44:33] Speaker 3: you do all this stuff after the catch. We're gonna
[44:35] Speaker 3: kind of play almost like I called it, like a
[44:37] Speaker 3: double shell. I don't know if the NFL is coming around,
[44:39] Speaker 3: but like they kind of double shelled the offense and
[44:42] Speaker 3: basically said we're going to keep everything in front. Good luck,
[44:46] Speaker 3: and the NFL figured McDaniel out. He now needs to
[44:50] Speaker 3: adjust back and get Hillo thrown open and so he
[44:53] Speaker 3: can do stuff after the catch or even deep. So
[44:56] Speaker 3: I think there is risk. But that's why I say
[44:58] Speaker 3: it's the middle ground, because I still think there's some
[45:00] Speaker 3: for fifteen hundred yards and ten touchdowns, and I still
[45:03] Speaker 3: think there's a world where he repeats last year and
[45:05] Speaker 3: we're disappointed.
[45:06] Speaker 1: Yeah, look I've been I've been middle ground with with
[45:08] Speaker 1: Tyreek for the most part too. You know, you can
[45:10] Speaker 1: see the scenario where he has that top five season,
[45:12] Speaker 1: but then, like you said, the offensive line too, right,
[45:15] Speaker 1: huge problem that offensive line where you want to or
[45:18] Speaker 1: to have time to be able to get it down
[45:19] Speaker 1: the field, and if that's not there, then that's a problem.
[45:22] Speaker 4: You know.
[45:22] Speaker 2: So you know, I could see it going many many directions.
[45:25] Speaker 2: Sorry that we weren't very helpful with that one.
[45:27] Speaker 1: Listener, Let's go to Amaron Hampton, where Rich Eisen broke
[45:32] Speaker 1: the news that he is evidently starting this week. He
[45:35] Speaker 1: was told that a Marion Hampton is starting, but Najee
[45:39] Speaker 1: Harris now back seemingly going to be able to be
[45:42] Speaker 1: active and play after that fireworks incident.
[45:45] Speaker 2: Where are you with a Marion Hampton?
[45:47] Speaker 3: So pre draft, I was Hampton very close to genty.
[45:51] Speaker 3: I would take centy ten out of ten times. I
[45:53] Speaker 3: just thought the gap was smaller than some people wanted
[45:55] Speaker 3: to make it. Just similar to Gibbs and Bijon back
[45:57] Speaker 3: in the day. Back in the day. It was two
[45:59] Speaker 3: years ago, So I should say that to say, like,
[46:02] Speaker 3: I like Hampton a lot. I just it's Greg Roman
[46:05] Speaker 3: in his offense. This is the same offense that kept
[46:07] Speaker 3: turning to freaking Gus Edwards again, Like I like, I
[46:10] Speaker 3: just think Harris isn't gonna be so much of value
[46:14] Speaker 3: in his own right. I just think he's gonna be
[46:15] Speaker 3: a thorn in Hampton's side.
[46:17] Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's not a huge one.
[46:19] Speaker 3: But we also have to see if the offense surprising
[46:23] Speaker 3: last year threw a lot inside the ten yard line.
[46:25] Speaker 3: They weren't even at the top of the They were
[46:26] Speaker 3: actually near the top of the league for throwing versus running.
[46:29] Speaker 3: And I think that will change with Hampton and Harris.
[46:31] Speaker 3: But what if it's a lot of Harris and not
[46:34] Speaker 3: so much Hampton. Where all I say is to present
[46:37] Speaker 3: the fact that I just don't think Hampton's gonna bell
[46:38] Speaker 3: cow this backfield. So two hundred and forty, two hundred
[46:41] Speaker 3: and fifty touches. Yeah, I still think he's a top
[46:44] Speaker 3: fifteen running back because that talent and that offense. Absolutely,
[46:46] Speaker 3: if he finishes at RB, one wouldn't be shocked. The
[46:49] Speaker 3: problem I had with Hampton is because Harris, you know,
[46:52] Speaker 3: stop playing with fireworks everybody. The reason like Harris not
[46:55] Speaker 3: being out there is Hampton kept getting pushed up, pushed up,
[46:57] Speaker 3: pushed up, pushed up, and then I'm like, well, if
[46:59] Speaker 3: you're gonna be draft him as a fringe arvy one,
[47:01] Speaker 3: I'm out.
[47:01] Speaker 5: Yeah.
[47:02] Speaker 1: The weird thing with Hampton is that he's almost like
[47:04] Speaker 1: a safe option as a rookie.
[47:07] Speaker 2: Like the funny thing with like the Greg Roman offense.
[47:10] Speaker 1: And I've tweeted about this and written about it and
[47:13] Speaker 1: you know, talked about it, but like his he's been
[47:15] Speaker 1: a coordinator for ten years now in completed seasons. He
[47:18] Speaker 1: got fired in Buffalo after like a month, but he's
[47:21] Speaker 1: had ten completed seasons in the NFL. His average running
[47:24] Speaker 1: back rank and running back target share rank has been
[47:27] Speaker 1: twenty six point three, so on average, his backfields end
[47:31] Speaker 1: up ranking like twenty six or twenty seventh in team
[47:34] Speaker 1: running back target share, which is obviously very very low.
[47:37] Speaker 1: And then if you even adjust that for like, because
[47:39] Speaker 1: people will come back and be like, well, he had
[47:40] Speaker 1: mobile quarterbacks or you know he had you know, bad
[47:44] Speaker 1: running backs back there. But when you adjust for that,
[47:46] Speaker 1: every single running back and the quarterbacks still stuck around
[47:50] Speaker 1: in those offenses. Like we've seen, for instance, Lamar Jackson
[47:53] Speaker 1: playing without Greg Roman the last couple of years, and
[47:55] Speaker 1: they've had much higher running back target shairs without Roman
[47:58] Speaker 1: than with Roman, right. And we've had Dereck Henry, who's
[48:00] Speaker 1: not a target getter, like that's not what he does.
[48:02] Speaker 1: He's not a receiving back, right, And so there's a
[48:04] Speaker 1: lot of of reason to believe that this offense just
[48:07] Speaker 1: doesn't target running backs at a super super high clip.
[48:10] Speaker 1: And and to me, that that's that screamed that Amaron
[48:14] Speaker 1: Hampton was probably more of a floor play, like a
[48:17] Speaker 1: like a high end RB two type play with maybe
[48:19] Speaker 1: not that like top six kind of running back upside.
[48:22] Speaker 1: And then when the Naji stuff happened, I'm like, Okay, well,
[48:25] Speaker 1: maybe there is that top six running back upside, and
[48:27] Speaker 1: now I'm starting to come back a little bit more
[48:29] Speaker 1: just because I do think, like you said, he could
[48:32] Speaker 1: just be a thorn, like he could just be really
[48:34] Speaker 1: really obnoxious, really annoying, and we might not see like
[48:37] Speaker 1: ful Hampton until towards the end of the year, hopefully.
[48:40] Speaker 2: If we see it this year, you know, and you know,
[48:42] Speaker 2: I don't.
[48:43] Speaker 1: I don't mind that they were because like last year
[48:46] Speaker 1: when when Justin Herbert was healthy, right because he started
[48:49] Speaker 1: the season with that like ankle injury and stuff, they
[48:52] Speaker 1: did become a little bit more pass heavy. And I
[48:54] Speaker 1: don't think that would be like a terrible thing necessarily
[48:56] Speaker 1: because I think the offense would be more efficient and
[48:58] Speaker 1: hopefully have more scoring opportunities and stuff.
[49:01] Speaker 2: But like you said, hopefully at the goal.
[49:03] Speaker 1: Line and near the end zone they are a little
[49:05] Speaker 1: bit more run heavy, because that would then, you know,
[49:07] Speaker 1: help Hampton get those touchdowns. Xavier Worthy Xavier Worthy is
[49:11] Speaker 1: a really fun one where she Rice now officially for
[49:15] Speaker 1: six games this season.
[49:17] Speaker 2: Not going to be playing. Have you been enter out
[49:19] Speaker 2: on Worthy?
[49:21] Speaker 3: That's one you could actually put on my list of
[49:23] Speaker 3: getting a lot of Xavier Worthy just because I knew
[49:26] Speaker 3: the Rashi Rice suspension was common. Obviously didn't know it
[49:29] Speaker 3: was going to be to.
[49:29] Speaker 2: Start the year.
[49:30] Speaker 3: But the thing I kept bringing up was that for
[49:32] Speaker 3: everything that people talked about for Ashi Rice's rookie season,
[49:35] Speaker 3: Xavier Worthy did the same thing at the end of
[49:37] Speaker 3: the year last year, and then we saw like that
[49:40] Speaker 3: this offense kind of needed him, And it wasn't so
[49:42] Speaker 3: much the fact like I don't like Rice the Worthy,
[49:45] Speaker 3: Like if I knew both of were on the field
[49:46] Speaker 3: seventeen games, I would take Rice over Worthy, but the
[49:49] Speaker 3: gap wouldn't be that big. I actually went into this
[49:53] Speaker 3: when there was that early you remember, like a month
[49:55] Speaker 3: or two ago, there was like, oh, it might not
[49:56] Speaker 3: even happen till twenty twenty six. For the suspension, I
[49:58] Speaker 3: was like, okay, we Travis Kelsey's toast, like he's the
[50:01] Speaker 3: one that's going to fall to the wayside. And I
[50:03] Speaker 3: actually thought this could be like Rice twenty three to
[50:05] Speaker 3: twenty four percent target share and Worthy like hovering around
[50:09] Speaker 3: twenty and kind of what they used to do with
[50:11] Speaker 3: Kelsey and Hill, but now Kelsey is the one that
[50:13] Speaker 3: falls to the wayside, is like a thirteen percent kind
[50:17] Speaker 3: of like the forty nine ers to a degree, so
[50:19] Speaker 3: I've been in Unworthy a lot. Because there's also, like
[50:23] Speaker 3: when I said before about presenting, like the play out
[50:25] Speaker 3: the scenarios in your mind, like there's a world where
[50:27] Speaker 3: would you be shocked if Xavier Worthy was just better
[50:30] Speaker 3: than Rice because he hasn't been injured, he's been with
[50:32] Speaker 3: the team, he makes another.
[50:33] Speaker 2: Step forward, I would again still take Rice.
[50:36] Speaker 3: It's just it's similar to the DeVante Adams argument that
[50:39] Speaker 3: people want to make with the rams for Nikua, like
[50:41] Speaker 3: if we got to the end of the year and
[50:42] Speaker 3: their neck and neck or even Adams. And that's why
[50:45] Speaker 3: because Worthy was still going so cheap and still is
[50:48] Speaker 3: somehow today even knowing we have the six game suspension
[50:52] Speaker 3: that he's going as a fringe wide receiver two or three,
[50:55] Speaker 3: and you get him for the first six weeks with
[50:57] Speaker 3: no Rice, Like I just I want more people to
[50:59] Speaker 3: be on Worthy.
[51:00] Speaker 1: That was the weird thing that I witnessed, especially in
[51:03] Speaker 1: like the Best Ball streets, where like you know, the
[51:06] Speaker 1: market reacts immediately to different news items and stuff like that.
[51:09] Speaker 1: And when we officially learned because again like you noted,
[51:12] Speaker 1: like we we didn't, Like a lot of people were
[51:13] Speaker 1: saying that that Rice because he wasn't going to get
[51:16] Speaker 1: have his court date until January of twenty twenty six,
[51:19] Speaker 1: and so we were making the assumption that, oh, well,
[51:21] Speaker 1: then you know, the NFL doesn't react and act until
[51:24] Speaker 1: after these things happened, So this could be another year
[51:26] Speaker 1: where Rashi Rice is on the field. And so you know,
[51:29] Speaker 1: once that officially happened, that he that he pled guilty
[51:32] Speaker 1: and he took, you know whatever, all the legal stuff
[51:34] Speaker 1: that happened when that went down. I was shocked that
[51:38] Speaker 1: Xavier Worthy's ADP barely moved when we officially knew that
[51:43] Speaker 1: there was going When I mean on DraftKings all summer
[51:46] Speaker 1: you had Jordan Addison knowing.
[51:48] Speaker 2: That he was going to be suspended.
[51:49] Speaker 1: We all knew he was going to be suspended, and
[51:51] Speaker 1: then his ADP didn't fall until after the official suspension happened. Right.
[51:55] Speaker 1: But then with Rashi Rice, we find out that he's
[51:57] Speaker 1: going to miss six or he's going to be suspended
[52:00] Speaker 1: this year, right, we don't know exactly when, and Xavier
[52:03] Speaker 1: Worthies ADP doesn't shift. So I was of the belief
[52:05] Speaker 1: where I was like, yes, I like Rice more than Worthy,
[52:08] Speaker 1: and then I ended up drifting like I'm overweight Unworthy
[52:10] Speaker 1: now after the ADP didn't move like it was just
[52:13] Speaker 1: it's just a wild Like it's just a really good
[52:15] Speaker 1: example to me of like this is why when we
[52:18] Speaker 1: talk about liking and not liking players, it's all versus cost, right,
[52:22] Speaker 1: Like we we don't you know, we don't hate these
[52:24] Speaker 1: guys or we don't. It's just all versus what we're
[52:26] Speaker 1: paying to get them. And so, yeah, like I liked
[52:30] Speaker 1: Worthy as a prospect, I have some concern about like ceiling,
[52:33] Speaker 1: Like do you think that he has like a true
[52:35] Speaker 1: top ten ceiling in him Xavier Worthy?
[52:39] Speaker 3: No, I think his ceiling's kind of more in the
[52:42] Speaker 3: fifteen to twenty like most DJ Moore seasons.
[52:45] Speaker 1: Yeah, when he was at his peak or something like that. Yeah, yeah,
[52:49] Speaker 1: that's kind of where I'm at too. All Right, we
[52:50] Speaker 1: got to talk about Bill Krosssey Merritt, Right, we got
[52:52] Speaker 1: to talk about Cory Krostsey Merritt, because what what fantasy
[52:56] Speaker 1: podcast these days doesn't reference something about the Washington backfield?
[53:00] Speaker 2: So all right, just just give it to me.
[53:02] Speaker 3: Where are you at with with Jacory Krossy Merit? So
[53:05] Speaker 3: I don't want to throw out the person this name
[53:07] Speaker 3: because in case they're wrong. I don't want people to
[53:08] Speaker 3: come for him. But I have a very very very
[53:10] Speaker 3: trusted person close to the commander situation that said, I
[53:15] Speaker 3: warn you coming out of the gate for Jacory Krosskey
[53:17] Speaker 3: or Bill what four name, we'll just call him four
[53:19] Speaker 3: name guy for the Commanders. Because he said this, he's like,
[53:22] Speaker 3: the team does love Krosskey, Merritt. Let me make that clear.
[53:26] Speaker 3: The issue is, as you well know, he's played one
[53:29] Speaker 3: game since twenty twenty three, right, people, So the thought
[53:33] Speaker 3: is because he's on the Commanders and they do love
[53:35] Speaker 3: him and they want him for the second half, that
[53:38] Speaker 3: they are going full blown committee out of the gate
[53:40] Speaker 3: and it's going to be a nightmare for us. When
[53:42] Speaker 3: the answer just truly is Austin Eckler, who was productive
[53:46] Speaker 3: last year, the pass catching option. Not to mention the
[53:48] Speaker 3: matchup with the Giants. If you want to try and
[53:50] Speaker 3: avoid that defensive line, what are you doing? Check out
[53:53] Speaker 3: Austin Eckler. So he said it probably it's going to
[53:56] Speaker 3: be slow. He said, don't be shocked if he has
[53:58] Speaker 3: five to seven touches in week one, and we're just
[54:02] Speaker 3: like infuriated. But that's why kind of dovetail into this
[54:05] Speaker 3: when we're talking about strategies and stuff like that, and
[54:07] Speaker 3: I know it kind of works with a lot of
[54:09] Speaker 3: things you and I are talking about. I know you
[54:10] Speaker 3: didn't ask me this, but the preseason, I think the
[54:13] Speaker 3: perception of you're talking about krossky merrit, I'm talking about
[54:17] Speaker 3: like all these players and they get hyped. And so
[54:20] Speaker 3: two months ago Trevion Henderson talked about talked about and
[54:23] Speaker 3: we see these guys every single preseason the helium. They
[54:26] Speaker 3: just rise, rise, rise, rise, and then almost like you
[54:28] Speaker 3: get people in your drafts are like, well, I got
[54:30] Speaker 3: to get them because I need to look like the
[54:32] Speaker 3: smartest person. And then you're not only buy all the risk,
[54:35] Speaker 3: you take them where there's no possible way they can
[54:36] Speaker 3: even return value. And I think that krossky merit was
[54:40] Speaker 3: fine until this past week. I would not draft them
[54:43] Speaker 3: at like RB twenty eight thirty, kind of like as
[54:47] Speaker 3: my bench option where I can be patient.
[54:49] Speaker 2: And maybe that's to tell for everybody out there.
[54:51] Speaker 3: If this person that told me this is correct, the
[54:54] Speaker 3: immediate thing you should be doing after two three weeks,
[54:56] Speaker 3: go go get them on the little cheap because they'll
[54:58] Speaker 3: be nice in the second half of the season.
[55:00] Speaker 2: Yeah.
[55:00] Speaker 1: No, that makes total sense. Like I think I had
[55:02] Speaker 1: him ranked like it was past RB thirty five. For me,
[55:04] Speaker 1: I couldn't draft him in like the top thirty five.
[55:07] Speaker 1: But like you know, once you get past some of
[55:09] Speaker 1: those players in that range, you're just like side yeah.
[55:12] Speaker 1: Everyone everyone's kind of just like you know, like just
[55:15] Speaker 1: a lot of question marks and stuff. So I kind
[55:17] Speaker 1: of just threw him in there. But then I realized
[55:19] Speaker 1: other people are liking I didn't get him in any
[55:21] Speaker 1: draft after you know, the steam really hit right.
[55:25] Speaker 3: I just couldn't.
[55:26] Speaker 1: I I you know, Darwin Thompson flashbacks were hitting me,
[55:30] Speaker 1: and uh and I and I got I got freaked out.
[55:33] Speaker 1: But no, I mean, like you know, he had he
[55:35] Speaker 1: had some really interesting like peripheral numbers in college. You know,
[55:38] Speaker 1: my the ZAP model that I use didn't really love
[55:41] Speaker 1: him that much just because his volume numbers, like related
[55:45] Speaker 1: numbers and the stuff that that I look and his
[55:46] Speaker 1: receiving numbers we were not good.
[55:48] Speaker 2: Like he just didn't have much receiving backbone.
[55:50] Speaker 1: And so that's another thing is that I worry about
[55:54] Speaker 1: what that ceiling will look like down the stretch, even
[55:56] Speaker 1: if Austin Eckler is still healthy. You know, because we
[55:58] Speaker 1: know that he's still he was still a good pass
[56:00] Speaker 1: catcher last year Eckler, you know, and like you said,
[56:03] Speaker 1: that's as it's a decent spot for him to just
[56:06] Speaker 1: get some of those dump offs. Like are you this
[56:08] Speaker 1: week ranking Chris Rodriguez ahead of Jacry Krossky.
[56:11] Speaker 3: Merrit No, just because I'll chase the ceiling. And I
[56:15] Speaker 3: think Chris Rodriguez is just based on hopefully getting a touchdown,
[56:18] Speaker 3: which if he hits cool or whatever, but they're both
[56:20] Speaker 3: basically and don't start him range. And I think with
[56:23] Speaker 3: like this backfield, as we've worn throughout the years, and
[56:26] Speaker 3: hopefully most people know this, but like going back to
[56:28] Speaker 3: Cam Newton, like all this, when you have that kind
[56:30] Speaker 3: of quarterback that runs as much as they do, you
[56:33] Speaker 3: only want one option hopefully next to them. You don't
[56:35] Speaker 3: want two three options because then it's just there's the
[56:39] Speaker 3: volume just can't be there.
[56:40] Speaker 1: Yeah, And I wonder even at the goal line, like
[56:42] Speaker 1: are they gonna run some funny stuff and funky stuff
[56:45] Speaker 1: with Debo at times?
[56:46] Speaker 2: And like I was just gonna say, Diva is gonna
[56:47] Speaker 2: get three touches a game.
[56:49] Speaker 1: There's a lot that can go and you know, I
[56:52] Speaker 1: don't mind him for sure, especially you know, I got
[56:54] Speaker 1: lucky that I had good CLV with him in Best
[56:57] Speaker 1: Ball and was drafting him in like the nineteenth and
[56:58] Speaker 1: twentieth round early on, but I could not you know,
[57:01] Speaker 1: I can't get behind the sixth seventh round price tag.
[57:04] Speaker 1: It's just really really difficult for me. All Right, one
[57:06] Speaker 1: more player. Since we talked about Tyler Warren. This one
[57:09] Speaker 1: maybe doesn't seem controversial, but I kind of think it's
[57:12] Speaker 1: like like it's people have had differing views. But Jordan Mason,
[57:16] Speaker 1: you know, going from San Francisco to Minnesota, splitting that
[57:20] Speaker 1: back fill with Aaron Jones.
[57:21] Speaker 2: A lot of people think that he's just going to
[57:22] Speaker 2: take over, But where are you at with him?
[57:24] Speaker 3: I don't think he's going to take over. I actually
[57:28] Speaker 3: I think this is kind of the Steelers inverse, where
[57:32] Speaker 3: if Warren was the lead in AJ Harris was the
[57:34] Speaker 3: timeshare piece, and it's not that like Jordan Mason was
[57:38] Speaker 3: lighting the world on fire in short yardage. I know
[57:39] Speaker 3: he got stuffed a lot.
[57:41] Speaker 2: And this is where, like I think, to go back
[57:43] Speaker 2: to the beginning of.
[57:44] Speaker 3: Our conversations, like where metrics like everybody's like, well, Jordan
[57:46] Speaker 3: Mason was one for whatever, but like, also, okay, well
[57:49] Speaker 3: look at the plays where he was one for whatever,
[57:51] Speaker 3: and like you know, at the one yard line, it's
[57:53] Speaker 3: going to be really tough for a lot of running
[57:55] Speaker 3: backs unless you're Derrick Henry. So you have to take
[57:58] Speaker 3: all that into the equation. But to take one step back,
[58:01] Speaker 3: it's not that Aaron Jones has ever been terrible either,
[58:03] Speaker 3: Like he's not a thumper, but this is a guy
[58:06] Speaker 3: who ran for double digit scores twice with the Packers. Again,
[58:09] Speaker 3: some of them not being from the two yard line.
[58:11] Speaker 3: But the Minnesota Vikings offensive line was doing that team
[58:14] Speaker 3: zero favors last year. I know it's turned around and
[58:17] Speaker 3: people are rating it as a potential top ten unit.
[58:19] Speaker 3: Well cool, that also helps Aaron Jones. Do I think
[58:22] Speaker 3: Aaron Jones is the premiere back? He was with the
[58:25] Speaker 3: Packers and we wanted more touches for him. No, but
[58:28] Speaker 3: that's not kind of really who Aaron Jones ever was.
[58:30] Speaker 3: The Packers told us that he needs to be a
[58:32] Speaker 3: time share, but I would still take Jones over Mason.
[58:35] Speaker 1: Now.
[58:35] Speaker 3: Of course, if Jones gets hurt, everybody's going to be
[58:37] Speaker 3: nuts for Jordan Mason, and that's cool because he'll kind
[58:40] Speaker 3: of get that bellcal work. But as it stands right now,
[58:43] Speaker 3: I think Mason is in that RB three four ish range,
[58:46] Speaker 3: depending on what your team or roster size looks like. Whereas, yeah,
[58:50] Speaker 3: he's going to get touches every single week, but without
[58:53] Speaker 3: a touchdown, you might be looking at eight for forty
[58:56] Speaker 3: nine for like, you know, ten, maybe gets twelve carries
[58:59] Speaker 3: and he gets you six yards, but without a touchdown,
[59:01] Speaker 3: it's going to be hard to be excited about him.
[59:03] Speaker 1: Yeah, And there's just no I mean, he hasn't been
[59:04] Speaker 1: a receiver and throughout his career and even at you
[59:07] Speaker 1: know when when he was at Georgia Tech, he played
[59:09] Speaker 1: with Jamir Gibbs, and you know, you can make arguments whatever,
[59:11] Speaker 1: but like last year in San Francisco, he had the
[59:15] Speaker 1: opportunity to be a pass catching back because he was
[59:17] Speaker 1: the lead back for them, and he didn't. He had
[59:19] Speaker 1: like a three percent target share right Like, he was
[59:22] Speaker 1: not seeing any work as a receiver. And you can
[59:24] Speaker 1: sit there and say, like, oh, Kyle Shanahan's offense doesn't
[59:27] Speaker 1: favor pass catching backs outside of Christian McCaffery, because I've
[59:31] Speaker 1: seen that sort of retort to that but Isaac Grenda
[59:34] Speaker 1: was seeing more work as a receiver when when he was,
[59:36] Speaker 1: you know, in that role. And so I do question, like, like,
[59:40] Speaker 1: I think the pairing from a real football perspective makes
[59:42] Speaker 1: a ton of sense, right. You get an early down
[59:45] Speaker 1: guy like Jordan Mason with an aged, you know, receiving back,
[59:49] Speaker 1: because like to me, Aaron Jones has always been one
[59:51] Speaker 1: of the most underrated receiving running backs in all football, right,
[59:54] Speaker 1: And so you can bind those two things, and you're like,
[59:57] Speaker 1: this makes so much sense to have those two guys
[59:59] Speaker 1: to get I just am going to always favor the
[1:00:02] Speaker 1: pass catching.
[1:00:03] Speaker 2: Back in these in these scenarios, you know.
[1:00:05] Speaker 1: So I'm I've been going after Aaron Jones, Moore, I'm
[1:00:07] Speaker 1: not like overweight on Aaron Jones because of the age
[1:00:09] Speaker 1: and all that kind of stuff. But I agree that
[1:00:12] Speaker 1: I haven't been able to like really back the Jordan
[1:00:14] Speaker 1: Mason stuff because realistically, it's like a Jordan Mason is
[1:00:18] Speaker 1: basically Braylan Allen in a better offense, right, And so
[1:00:22] Speaker 1: or you know, from like a projection stet Well, like
[1:00:23] Speaker 1: I Bigsby exactly Etan and Bigsby like he's the he's
[1:00:27] Speaker 1: the tank.
[1:00:28] Speaker 2: Bigsby.
[1:00:28] Speaker 1: I would rather just take the Bigsby discount if I'm
[1:00:31] Speaker 1: going to do that, if I'm gonna get that early
[1:00:32] Speaker 1: down guy, and I think, you know again, I always preface,
[1:00:36] Speaker 1: like I know, I brought up best ball and stuff,
[1:00:37] Speaker 1: but it's a little bit different in bastball because you
[1:00:39] Speaker 1: don't having to predict when these touchdowns are happening and stuff.
[1:00:42] Speaker 1: But I do think that it's going to be a
[1:00:44] Speaker 1: touchdown dependent type player like you're saying. So definitely the
[1:00:47] Speaker 1: same page with Jordan Mason. Right last question before I
[1:00:51] Speaker 1: let you go, you kind of teased it earlier. Give
[1:00:54] Speaker 1: me a bold prediction for this twenty twenty five season.
[1:00:59] Speaker 3: I remember it's but I'm gonna do it. I'm gonna
[1:01:01] Speaker 3: come strong with this one. Jaden Higgins is the number
[1:01:04] Speaker 3: two rookie wide receiver for Fantasy Woo. Here's why. So
[1:01:10] Speaker 3: I compared him to Marvin Jones pre draft. My colleague
[1:01:13] Speaker 3: Dane Brugler said, I see your Marvin Jones. I'm coming
[1:01:16] Speaker 3: with Nico Collins. I was like, oh, okay, I love you, Dane.
[1:01:20] Speaker 3: I like but that one's really aggressive. But here's why
[1:01:22] Speaker 3: I like is because even if he is Marvin Jones
[1:01:25] Speaker 3: to see that step up with by the way, good timing.
[1:01:27] Speaker 3: I'm recording this podcast because I had this as my
[1:01:30] Speaker 3: hot take even before the Christian Kirk missing practice with
[1:01:33] Speaker 3: a hamstring injury because he's Christian Kirk.
[1:01:36] Speaker 2: Is the fact that if you look at where CJ.
[1:01:38] Speaker 3: Stroud still had some success last year when he was
[1:01:40] Speaker 3: under pressure, was throwing to Nico Collins. Because when under
[1:01:43] Speaker 3: pressure with Nico Collins, that was actually one of the
[1:01:45] Speaker 3: highest yearge per route run of any wide receiver when
[1:01:48] Speaker 3: under pressure was Stroud to Collins. And I think that
[1:01:51] Speaker 3: Higgins can replicate a lot of what Collins does. So
[1:01:54] Speaker 3: if you gave me ninety percent Collins on the other
[1:01:56] Speaker 3: side of them, stock up. If we're buying into the
[1:01:59] Speaker 3: bounce back for Stroud, that the offensive line's been somewhat
[1:02:02] Speaker 3: approved and that we believe CJ. Stroud is more of
[1:02:05] Speaker 3: the rookie season one I Higgins playing on the outside,
[1:02:09] Speaker 3: Kirk in the slot or Noel when he takes over,
[1:02:11] Speaker 3: whichever because he's hurt. But I just looked at Higgins
[1:02:14] Speaker 3: as like, again, Marvin Jones, is what I feel like
[1:02:16] Speaker 3: is a flour ok thousand, eleven hundred yards six seven
[1:02:18] Speaker 3: eight touchdowns. Yeah, I think Travis Hunter can do that. Yeah,
[1:02:21] Speaker 3: I think that Matthew Golden's in that world too. But
[1:02:24] Speaker 3: if I'm wrong, and I'm saying this in Dane's right
[1:02:27] Speaker 3: and he is Nico Collins, I mean we might be
[1:02:30] Speaker 3: looking at somebody who can put up eleven, twelve, thirteen
[1:02:32] Speaker 3: hundred yards what I bet on it? Obviously not you
[1:02:34] Speaker 3: asked for a hot take, but I'm a Jayden Higgins fan,
[1:02:38] Speaker 3: and I think that there's a possibility is the number
[1:02:41] Speaker 3: two wide receiver for rookies in.
[1:02:43] Speaker 1: Fantasy Now, not to get you even more excited, but
[1:02:46] Speaker 1: one of his three statistical comps in the ZAP model
[1:02:48] Speaker 1: was Nico Collins. So I was letting you mention that
[1:02:53] Speaker 1: I read that. Trust me, I remember that part as well.
[1:02:55] Speaker 1: So so I was letting you throw that nugget in.
[1:02:58] Speaker 1: It's so funny watching this. This is a total aside,
[1:03:01] Speaker 1: but it's so funny watching these teams draft wide receivers
[1:03:04] Speaker 1: that have the that are complete archetypes of wide receivers
[1:03:06] Speaker 1: they already have. Like like when I looked at like
[1:03:08] Speaker 1: there was one year, like last year, like Xavier Worthy
[1:03:11] Speaker 1: was a Hollywood.
[1:03:12] Speaker 2: Brown comp Like that was one of his comps or
[1:03:14] Speaker 2: like ad Nai Mitchell, one of his comps.
[1:03:16] Speaker 1: Was Alec Pierce in my in my prospect models, Like
[1:03:19] Speaker 1: there's just always like these guys that were this year
[1:03:22] Speaker 1: Jalen Royals was Rashi Rice. That was one of his
[1:03:24] Speaker 1: top comps, Like there's always there's always this connection, like
[1:03:27] Speaker 1: they always have their dudes. I mean, I think Higgins
[1:03:30] Speaker 1: is it's a great call, Like I think that he
[1:03:32] Speaker 1: you know, he's someone who I don't know would be
[1:03:36] Speaker 1: able to be a standalone one, but Nico Collins wasn't
[1:03:38] Speaker 1: able to either right away, right, so him being able
[1:03:41] Speaker 1: to play alongside Nico might be a really big benefit
[1:03:44] Speaker 1: in the end. So I like that call a lot,
[1:03:46] Speaker 1: especially with this, uh, this Christian Kirk hamstring, which seemed
[1:03:49] Speaker 1: like I guess it was gonna be inevitable because it's
[1:03:51] Speaker 1: Christian Kirk.
[1:03:52] Speaker 2: But I mean, like Christian Kirk went healthy, yay, But
[1:03:55] Speaker 2: how often do we get yeah, right exactly, Jake Man,
[1:03:58] Speaker 2: this was awesome.
[1:04:00] Speaker 1: Let everyone know where they can find you, what you're
[1:04:02] Speaker 1: working on and what you're doing in this twenty twenty
[1:04:04] Speaker 1: five season.
[1:04:05] Speaker 3: Yeah, thanks so much for having me. It was a
[1:04:07] Speaker 3: fun talk at Only Kid over the Athletic where everything is.
[1:04:10] Speaker 3: And then I resurrected the old podcast. It's now the
[1:04:13] Speaker 3: All In Speed Run, which we'll have a JJ on
[1:04:16] Speaker 3: at some point this season for a little short stint. Yeah,
[1:04:18] Speaker 3: if one Wednesday there, So I appreciate that, and I
[1:04:21] Speaker 3: appreciate you having me. This was a lot of fun.
[1:04:23] Speaker 1: Yeah, man, it was great chopping up with you as usual.
[1:04:26] Speaker 1: You guys can find all my workover on lateround dot com.
[1:04:29] Speaker 1: I mean, if you still want to buy a draft guide,
[1:04:30] Speaker 1: I won't stop you, but more than likely here your
[1:04:33] Speaker 1: your drafts are over. But you can still check that
[1:04:35] Speaker 1: out over on lateround dot com. Sign up for the newsletter.
[1:04:38] Speaker 1: It's totally free. Make make sure you subscribe to both
[1:04:41] Speaker 1: the podcast and the YouTube channel otherwise, everyone, thanks for
[1:04:45] Speaker 1: tuning in.

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