# Becoming a Best Ball Bro: Do We Have It All Wrong?

An episode of [The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1224965828), 26 Aug 2026, 1 h 12 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0a233618-d694-4c81-a139-b34e00f98fb1/addcd0d3-4d16-49ae-a1a1-b4b1011ab908/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=5747cc82-33a9-497c-8353-b34e00f98fbe

JJ and Rich open the show with a discussion about average draft position risers and fallers before Mark Garcia of One Week Season and StatRankings joins the show. Mark explains why he’s not bailing on Zero RB this year, breaks down the Ashton Jeanty situation from Sunday, and much more. ---------- All DraftKings Customers enter a lineup into the Best Ball $20 million Headliner Contest and receive a bonus ticket for a 2nd entry! Download the DraftKings app and sign up using https://bit.ly/LateRound2026 or promo code LATEROUND! The Crown is Yours! Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Help is available for problem gambling. Call (888) 789-7777 or visit ccpg.org (CT). 18+ in most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply. Void where prohibited. 1 per customer. Must enter a lineup into the NFL Best Ball $20M Headliner Contest. $25 entry fee. Bonus issued as 1 ticket to NFL Best Ball $20M Headliner Contest. Ticket reward is site credit valid for use only on NFL Best Ball $20M Headliner Contest. Ticket reward is single-use and expires at contest lock on 9/9/26. See terms at https://www.draftkings.com/promotions. Ends 9/9/26 at contest lock. Sponsored by DraftKings. #DKPartner See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: Hey, JJ, my wife and I have been training for
[0:03] Speaker 1: a half marathon on Saturday.
[0:05] Speaker 2: We peaked at eight miles.
[0:07] Speaker 1: We're almost there at that full 13 and change everything
[0:11] Speaker 1: heard after. When's the last time you did something stressful?
[0:16] Speaker 3: That would be on Sunday when I didn't know if
[0:18] Speaker 3: Ashton Gentry was alive or not. I'm JJ, and over
[0:21] Speaker 3: the last couple of years, I've been doing everything I
[0:23] Speaker 3: can to be a Best Ball Bro. And last season,
[0:26] Speaker 3: things finally fell into place. I got 40th in the
[0:29] Speaker 3: DraftKings Millie Contest, taking home $ 20, 000. Maybe I became a
[0:34] Speaker 3: Best Ball Bro, but I'm still looking to learn more
[0:36] Speaker 3: about this game.
[0:37] Speaker 2: And I still want others to come on this ride
[0:40] Speaker 2: with me. So even if you consider me a Best
[0:42] Speaker 2: Ball Bro, this could be your year.
[0:44] Speaker 3: This could be the year that you officially become a
[0:47] Speaker 3: Best Ball Bro.
[1:04] Speaker 2: This episode is sponsored by DraftKings.
[1:07] Speaker 3: We partnered up with DraftKings again this year for best ball,
[1:09] Speaker 3: and we've got a can't miss offer on their biggest
[1:11] Speaker 3: best ball contest ever. $ 20 million in total prizes. It's
[1:15] Speaker 3: draft one, get one. Draft your team once, no weekly
[1:19] Speaker 3: lineup management, and your top scorers start automatically each week,
[1:23] Speaker 3: all season long. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and
[1:26] Speaker 3: sign up with promo code LATEROUND.
[1:29] Speaker 2: Enter a lineup in the $ 20 million Best Ball Contest.
[1:31] Speaker 3: For $ 25 and get a bonus ticket for a second entry.
[1:35] Speaker 3: Two shots at the title. Draft one, get one, only
[1:39] Speaker 3: on DraftKings. The crown is yours. Welcome into another episode
[1:45] Speaker 3: of Becoming a Best Ball Bro. I'm JJ Zacharys and joined,
[1:49] Speaker 3: as always, by Rich Ryan. Rich, we're both wearing blue today.
[1:52] Speaker 2: How you doing?
[1:53] Speaker 1: That's right, the Blue Boys. I almost made another Blue
[2:00] Speaker 1: Bee alliterative joke, but this is a family show.
[2:03] Speaker 2: Yes.
[2:04] Speaker 1: Painful. Speaking of painful, yesterday, those couple of hours waiting
[2:08] Speaker 1: to see whether or not Ashton Gentry had a fantasy
[2:11] Speaker 1: football pulse. Of course he was. Blood was flowing through
[2:14] Speaker 1: his veins. But for our selfish purposes.
[2:16] Speaker 2: He was not actually going to die.
[2:18] Speaker 1: Our selfish purposes. We needed him to rise up like
[2:22] Speaker 1: the undertaker. And it sounds like he has.
[2:24] Speaker 2: Yeah.
[2:24] Speaker 3: I mean, to a, to a degree seems like, you know,
[2:27] Speaker 3: it was probably the best case scenario in those moments.
[2:29] Speaker 3: I mean, I'm a little bit overweight on gentee and
[2:32] Speaker 3: I was drafting him a lot more in like July
[2:35] Speaker 3: for some, I went, I go through these like spurts
[2:37] Speaker 3: of like drafting players a whole lot. And so I
[2:39] Speaker 3: haven't drafted him a lot recently, but I am overweight.
[2:42] Speaker 3: So I was sitting there being like, please. And I'm
[2:44] Speaker 3: underweight on Mike Washington. And I'm like, please Ashton, Be okay.
[2:48] Speaker 3: I need you this year.
[2:49] Speaker 2: I need you.
[2:50] Speaker 3: But I break that down with our guests today in
[2:54] Speaker 3: pretty good detail. A lot of game theory discussion. Probably
[2:58] Speaker 3: the most game theory-oriented guest that we've had on the show.
[3:03] Speaker 3: We had him on, I think, last year. But we'll
[3:06] Speaker 3: get to that in just a second. First, let's talk
[3:08] Speaker 3: about some risers and fallers in ADP, Rich, because... We're
[3:12] Speaker 3: in this season now. I'm sure there's going to be
[3:14] Speaker 3: one because we just got word that Keyshawn Booty was
[3:17] Speaker 3: traded to the Texans. We are recording this. We usually
[3:19] Speaker 3: record this part on Tuesday, but we're recording it on
[3:21] Speaker 3: Monday this week. But Keyshawn Booty did get traded to
[3:23] Speaker 3: the Texans, so I'm sure he's going to be a
[3:25] Speaker 3: riser here soon. But let's go over some risers and
[3:30] Speaker 3: fallers because there's been a lot.
[3:31] Speaker 2: Of movement in the ADP streets recently.
[3:34] Speaker 1: Yeah, let's start with Keenan Allen, somebody who you were
[3:37] Speaker 1: drafting when he was a free agent now on the
[3:40] Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts. And As of last week, he was starting
[3:44] Speaker 1: to go in round 14. Are you still drafting Keenan?
[3:49] Speaker 1: Are you just happy with your position? Where are you
[3:50] Speaker 1: at with Mr.
[3:51] Speaker 4: Allen?
[3:52] Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, like, I'm fine if I am getting
[3:54] Speaker 3: a stack and he's there and there's, you know... like
[3:57] Speaker 3: that range doesn't have a ton of like locked in
[3:59] Speaker 3: great wide receivers. And, you know, do I think he's
[4:01] Speaker 3: locked in and great, maybe locked in, but not necessarily
[4:04] Speaker 3: like amazing. Like, I think that he certainly lost his step.
[4:07] Speaker 3: He's not that much of a down the field type player.
[4:10] Speaker 3: But the one thing about Keenan Allen, man, is that
[4:12] Speaker 3: the last two stops, he has been used quite a
[4:15] Speaker 3: bit in his offenses last year and, He had the
[4:17] Speaker 3: highest target share among all chargers, wider seers by a
[4:21] Speaker 3: pretty decent margin when you look at it on a
[4:22] Speaker 3: per route run basis. And then you look at the
[4:24] Speaker 3: Bears a couple of years ago, he had a better
[4:26] Speaker 3: target share than DJ Moore.
[4:28] Speaker 2: And that was Roma Dunze's rookie season.
[4:30] Speaker 3: And he had a better target share by a healthy
[4:32] Speaker 3: margin over Roma Dunze.
[4:35] Speaker 4: So..
[4:35] Speaker 2: I look at Keenan Allen as someone who's going to
[4:37] Speaker 2: get you something.
[4:38] Speaker 3: I actually had a good discussion about this with a
[4:40] Speaker 3: guest as well today, which I'll just say it's Mark Garcia.
[4:42] Speaker 3: But I had a great discussion with Mark about sort
[4:46] Speaker 3: of like the idea of taking zeros and not taking
[4:50] Speaker 3: zeros because I think a lot of guests have... Sort
[4:52] Speaker 3: of gone with the idea that we shouldn't be taking
[4:55] Speaker 3: zeros and that we should look for just as much
[4:58] Speaker 3: floor as ceiling with some of the later round picks.
[5:01] Speaker 3: But Mark kind of disagrees with that. So it's a
[5:02] Speaker 3: little teaser for our conversation. It's a really good conversation.
[5:06] Speaker 3: But with Keenan Allen, I think that he is a
[5:08] Speaker 3: solid pick still in round 14. I would assume that
[5:12] Speaker 3: he's going to go earlier in a lot of drafts.
[5:13] Speaker 2: Obviously, this is ADP, so..
[5:15] Speaker 3: You know, there's and I've seen him go a lot
[5:17] Speaker 3: earlier in drafts, but this is, you know, looking at
[5:19] Speaker 3: where he was before, it's still kind of catching up
[5:22] Speaker 3: a little bit. So, yeah, I mean, if you're getting
[5:23] Speaker 3: him around 14, I think around 13 is fine. That's
[5:26] Speaker 3: an area of the draft where things just start to
[5:27] Speaker 3: go kind of south at the wider zero position.
[5:29] Speaker 1: All right, let's stay out on the West Coast. Talk
[5:32] Speaker 1: about a guy you just said you're a little underweight on,
[5:35] Speaker 1: and that's rookie running back Mike Washington. There's a bit
[5:39] Speaker 1: of noise, I think, in this week's data in terms
[5:41] Speaker 1: of his ADP, of course, because of yesterday's But a
[5:46] Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago, he was settling in around 187.
[5:50] Speaker 1: So regardless, a rise for Mike Washington, who's looked electric
[5:54] Speaker 1: in preseason. So why are you lower than the market,
[6:00] Speaker 1: I guess, on Washington? Yeah.
[6:02] Speaker 2: I haven't drafted enough of him for sure.
[6:04] Speaker 3: Like I'm, I'm, I'm under 8% Washington and I have
[6:07] Speaker 3: regrets for sure. Based on where we're at right now.
[6:11] Speaker 3: I didn't think that he had a terrible profile by
[6:14] Speaker 3: any means. He actually had a positive draft capital Delta
[6:17] Speaker 3: in the zap model, which tells me that the model
[6:19] Speaker 3: likes him a little bit more than where he was
[6:21] Speaker 3: being drafted. It wasn't so big that it made him
[6:23] Speaker 3: a low risk player, but it was on the positive end.
[6:27] Speaker 3: The thing with Washington, that's really weird is that the
[6:28] Speaker 3: zap model inputs are do like him more than some
[6:31] Speaker 3: of the advanced numbers do. So, I mean, some of
[6:33] Speaker 3: the numbers in the ZAP model are advanced, but I mean,
[6:36] Speaker 3: some of the stuff that you see, like avoided tackles
[6:38] Speaker 3: per rush, et cetera. So like he had a 62nd
[6:40] Speaker 3: percentile reception chair in his best season, a 65th percentile
[6:44] Speaker 3: adjusted yards per team play, a 57th percentile adjusted receiving
[6:47] Speaker 3: yards per team pass attempt. So that builds you a
[6:50] Speaker 3: picture of like, oh, this is a pretty above average
[6:52] Speaker 3: player you know, production profile overall. He was an older prospect,
[6:55] Speaker 3: but even still, you know, that doesn't look bad. And
[6:57] Speaker 3: then you add on the fact that he crushed the combine.
[7:00] Speaker 3: He had the best, one of the best speed scores
[7:01] Speaker 3: you're going to find in the zap model. I think
[7:04] Speaker 3: Keith Marshall was the only one who had a better
[7:06] Speaker 3: speed score in the model.
[7:07] Speaker 2: I just can't remember completely.
[7:08] Speaker 3: But regardless, the advanced metrics are where things start to
[7:12] Speaker 3: get a little bit iffier and scarier for him, where
[7:15] Speaker 3: he had a 12th percentile avoided tackles per attempt. a
[7:19] Speaker 3: 22nd percentile explosive run rate, which is crazy because of
[7:22] Speaker 3: what he did do at the combine, 16th percentile yards
[7:25] Speaker 3: after contact per attempt. And he did split backfields throughout college.
[7:30] Speaker 3: So part of the reason why I didn't go after
[7:32] Speaker 3: him heavily is because I just didn't think that necessarily
[7:36] Speaker 3: if Ashton Gentry went down, that Washington would be the
[7:39] Speaker 3: for sure guy in that backfield. And I think that
[7:42] Speaker 3: we were kind of seeing... talk and speak to this
[7:46] Speaker 3: when they would talk about him after these big preseason
[7:48] Speaker 3: games where they would say that he was still working
[7:50] Speaker 3: on some of the pass catching stuff. And they have
[7:52] Speaker 3: Dylan Loughby in their backfield too, who is someone who
[7:55] Speaker 3: had a really good receiving profile coming out. And that's
[7:58] Speaker 3: kind of the role that he would hypothetically play. So
[8:01] Speaker 3: when the news went down, I didn't really send a
[8:04] Speaker 3: fire a take out there because I was kind of
[8:05] Speaker 3: waiting for stuff to kind of come out i figured
[8:08] Speaker 3: it would come out i honestly thought it would be
[8:10] Speaker 3: just a couple of hours ended up being like six
[8:11] Speaker 3: hours but i was kind of shocked by the rb2
[8:15] Speaker 3: placement of mike washington because we know that this environment
[8:19] Speaker 3: is not elite right i mean i love the system
[8:21] Speaker 3: and i love what it could be but it's not
[8:24] Speaker 3: an elite environment the reason we're drafting ashton gentry is
[8:26] Speaker 3: because he's going to get a ton of work on
[8:28] Speaker 3: the ground but he's going to get a ton of
[8:29] Speaker 3: work through the air more than likely as well like
[8:32] Speaker 3: that's That's the allure with Ashton Gentry. If that piece
[8:34] Speaker 3: was gone for a player like Mike Washington to a, like,
[8:38] Speaker 3: let's say halved, right? Like if Mike Washington in a
[8:41] Speaker 3: lead back role for the Raiders would be like a
[8:44] Speaker 3: six to 7% target share player and Gentry's double that,
[8:48] Speaker 3: that's a huge difference.
[8:49] Speaker 2: It's a huge Delta.
[8:50] Speaker 3: And so I couldn't get behind Washington and like, the
[8:53] Speaker 3: top 30 ish of running backs. But I think you
[8:55] Speaker 3: could start thinking about him right after that, just because
[8:57] Speaker 3: there's a pretty big drop after that.
[8:58] Speaker 2: Like I would still be drafting again.
[9:00] Speaker 3: This is not what came to fruition, but I would
[9:02] Speaker 3: still be drafting like Ramondre Stevenson over Mike Washington, for instance,
[9:06] Speaker 3: because I do think that their projection in general might
[9:09] Speaker 3: be semi close of gentee were out, but there's more
[9:12] Speaker 3: contingent upside with Stevenson. If, if Travion and Travion Henderson's
[9:15] Speaker 3: banged up right now too, but if Travion Henderson were
[9:17] Speaker 3: to go down, so he's looked apart in the preseason,
[9:20] Speaker 3: there's not that much predictive value there though. So I'm
[9:22] Speaker 3: not going to overstate what, what that all means. And
[9:25] Speaker 3: there's been enough coach speak sort of that says that
[9:28] Speaker 3: he still has some stuff to work on that. I
[9:30] Speaker 3: don't think that he would just become a full blown
[9:32] Speaker 3: bell cow in that backfield.
[9:33] Speaker 4: Regardless.
[9:34] Speaker 3: I wish I was more in like the 8%, 9%, 10%
[9:37] Speaker 3: range with Mike Washington, as opposed to like the 5%
[9:38] Speaker 3: that I'm at.
[9:40] Speaker 1: Contingent upside and better offensive environment, of course, for Roman
[9:44] Speaker 1: J right. We median outcomes project new England to be
[9:48] Speaker 1: much better at scoring points. Then Las Vegas, which at
[9:52] Speaker 1: the end of the day, scoring points is so important
[9:54] Speaker 1: for the running back position. We'll stay with another rookie.
[9:58] Speaker 1: This one, you're a little more. bullish on especially more
[10:02] Speaker 1: than his fellow rookie teammate let's talk about Kevin Concepcion Concepcion.
[10:07] Speaker 3: Yeah, Casey, Casey, man. I just think he's really good.
[10:13] Speaker 3: And I've been drafting him. I think others should draft him.
[10:15] Speaker 2: He's been rising.
[10:15] Speaker 3: You know, that's why he's part of this list right now.
[10:17] Speaker 3: But I still think that he's at an OK price tag.
[10:20] Speaker 3: I'm not really concerned about I mean, I'm concerned about
[10:22] Speaker 3: the quarterback play, but not specifically the fact they named
[10:25] Speaker 3: Deshaun Watson a starter. I think that regardless of who's
[10:28] Speaker 3: under center, it's not going to be great. But you
[10:29] Speaker 3: could also argue that it's going to help some of
[10:32] Speaker 3: the underneath stuff because I don't think Watson can really
[10:34] Speaker 3: get the ball down the field very effectively at this point.
[10:37] Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean, this is just a reminder that
[10:41] Speaker 3: Casey Concepcion, in my opinion, was a, I don't want
[10:44] Speaker 3: to say far superior because that doesn't frame it properly,
[10:48] Speaker 3: but he was definitely at least like a tier or
[10:49] Speaker 3: two above what Denzel Boston is, in my opinion. In Boston,
[10:54] Speaker 3: I do have some fear to take a term from
[10:56] Speaker 3: Matt Harmon that there's a little sacrificial X to his,
[11:00] Speaker 3: profile this year you know I do think that there's
[11:02] Speaker 3: some upside with Boston he's in that kind of like
[11:05] Speaker 3: Cortland Sutton archetype you know if you want to take
[11:07] Speaker 3: that a step further you get into like Ted Arroyo
[11:09] Speaker 3: McMillan then into Drake London right and so like there's
[11:12] Speaker 3: that kind of archetype going on with Boston but I
[11:16] Speaker 3: think Concepcion fits what we really would want from a
[11:20] Speaker 3: player in this offense which is getting looks all over
[11:22] Speaker 3: the field they're going to manufacture touches for him and
[11:25] Speaker 3: you know if you want to make I made this
[11:28] Speaker 3: comparison whenever the draft happened but this could be Todd
[11:30] Speaker 3: Munkins like Zay Flowers in a way in this offense.
[11:33] Speaker 2: So I'm pretty hype on Concepcion. I think he's a
[11:36] Speaker 2: good prospect.
[11:37] Speaker 3: And I'm not, I'm concerned about the offense, but obviously
[11:41] Speaker 3: if he were in a better offense, he'd be like
[11:42] Speaker 3: a seventh round pick, not like a 11th round pick.
[11:45] Speaker 1: It's just so hard to play X in this league
[11:47] Speaker 1: and be efficient from a fantasy perspective.
[11:50] Speaker 2: Yeah, especially in a bad offense.
[11:51] Speaker 1: Yeah, you can't, not everyone's just Nico Collins. Like go
[11:55] Speaker 1: stand on the outside and dominate people. We want guys
[11:58] Speaker 1: moving and getting spammed. with easy targets.
[12:02] Speaker 2: Another rookie.
[12:03] Speaker 1: I'm curious to hear your take because the steam continues
[12:06] Speaker 1: for Dejan Stribling, who's up two more rounds since the
[12:10] Speaker 1: last time we talked.
[12:12] Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, like, I get it.
[12:14] Speaker 3: I understand it. I think that there's a lot of
[12:17] Speaker 3: reason to click his name still. You know, it's more so, though,
[12:21] Speaker 3: I'm going to probably be a little bit more inclined
[12:23] Speaker 3: to I'm trying to not let CLV get in the
[12:26] Speaker 3: way too, too much, but I do want to, with
[12:30] Speaker 3: a May through August contest like the Millie, there's going
[12:35] Speaker 3: to be a lot of teams that got shriveling in
[12:36] Speaker 3: round two.
[12:36] Speaker 2: 18, 19, 20, as opposed to round nine.
[12:40] Speaker 3: And, and there, you know, I have, I have another
[12:42] Speaker 3: CLV conversation on with Mark, but I don't think it's
[12:46] Speaker 3: the end of the world if you're drafting them in
[12:47] Speaker 3: around nine, but there's, we're beginning to get into a
[12:50] Speaker 3: place of like opportunity costs. Like I've definitely changed my
[12:53] Speaker 3: tune on stripling over the last month or two, just,
[12:55] Speaker 3: just by doing a little bit more research and thinking
[12:57] Speaker 3: about his positioning more and on this team while also
[13:00] Speaker 3: obviously you know reading into the hype and watching him
[13:03] Speaker 3: like he's got very strong hands and he's very physical
[13:07] Speaker 3: and those things alone and he can produce yak and
[13:10] Speaker 3: those things you know in a Kyle Shanahan offense can
[13:13] Speaker 3: work that alone The thing that I'm trying to be
[13:17] Speaker 3: reasonable with is the fact that Mike Evans hasn't been playing.
[13:20] Speaker 3: Chris McCaffrey hasn't been playing and George Kittle has been playing.
[13:22] Speaker 3: And so obviously those three guys are going to be,
[13:26] Speaker 3: you know, more focal points of the offense than what
[13:29] Speaker 3: dribbling is going to be.
[13:30] Speaker 4: So.
[13:31] Speaker 3: I'm not against drafting him where he's still going. If
[13:34] Speaker 3: he starts to creep up into... And look, again, once
[13:37] Speaker 3: you get into round six, as early as round six,
[13:40] Speaker 3: you start to get into very questionable wide receiver profiles,
[13:42] Speaker 3: in my opinion. I'm certainly not saying that he has
[13:46] Speaker 3: a horrible ADP, especially from a wide receiver standpoint.
[13:50] Speaker 4: But..
[13:51] Speaker 3: I do like some of the running backs and rounds,
[13:53] Speaker 3: you know, eight to nine and some of the quarterbacks
[13:55] Speaker 3: that go there, you can complete a lot of stacks.
[13:57] Speaker 3: Even the tight ends at times will fall and you'll
[13:59] Speaker 3: get a discount with them. So I'm not going to
[14:02] Speaker 3: push it that much further than this, but you know,
[14:04] Speaker 3: if you're only doing 10 to 20 drafts or something
[14:07] Speaker 3: and you don't have enough stribling or whatever the case
[14:09] Speaker 3: may be, I think it's fine to draft him, you know,
[14:11] Speaker 3: in this range. Cause there's plenty of upside with his profile.
[14:14] Speaker 3: He's still mega, mega, mega undervalued and season long leagues.
[14:18] Speaker 3: Like It's pretty crazy how little love he's getting on
[14:23] Speaker 3: major platforms. So if you want to get your exposure
[14:25] Speaker 3: and you're playing season long in that way, I'd probably
[14:28] Speaker 3: do that. But you can still do it in best
[14:29] Speaker 3: ball too.
[14:31] Speaker 1: We started the riser segment with a veteran free agent signing.
[14:36] Speaker 1: And like the Phoenix, all ends with beginnings. And we'll
[14:40] Speaker 1: start and finish. Najee Harris signs with the New York Giants.
[14:44] Speaker 1: And despite his fancy footwork in those videos online, he's
[14:48] Speaker 1: only going in the 19th round.
[14:50] Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, there was a tweet and I can't
[14:52] Speaker 3: remember who sent it. And so somebody can tag me
[14:55] Speaker 3: and I'll retweet it and give them love because I'm
[14:57] Speaker 3: not trying to plagiarize here. But someone made the point
[15:00] Speaker 3: on Twitter where they said that Najee Harris coming off
[15:04] Speaker 3: an Achilles isn't a big deal for Najee Harris because
[15:07] Speaker 3: he didn't have any bursts to begin with. He's the
[15:10] Speaker 3: kind of player that this might not matter as much
[15:13] Speaker 3: for because having that quick speed and acceleration was never
[15:17] Speaker 3: really part of his game. I'll be honest, Rich, like
[15:20] Speaker 3: I think Harris could have some role in this offense
[15:23] Speaker 3: this year because he's.
[15:24] Speaker 2: A player that coaches seem to like.
[15:27] Speaker 3: I mean, our sample size is obviously the Steelers with
[15:31] Speaker 3: Mike Tomlin, who loved him despite Jalen Warren being the
[15:33] Speaker 3: better running back. And then, look, I know that there's
[15:36] Speaker 3: a skill to be able to handle a big workload,
[15:38] Speaker 3: but there probably should have been more of a split
[15:41] Speaker 3: with with Jalen Warren throughout Najee Harris's time in Pittsburgh.
[15:44] Speaker 2: And then he goes to L.A. last year.
[15:46] Speaker 3: And, you know, I like Amarian Hampton as a prospect.
[15:48] Speaker 3: And I thought that he was he actually wasn't as
[15:51] Speaker 3: bad as some people think last year. But regardless of
[15:54] Speaker 3: all that, like Najee Harris was in store to probably
[15:57] Speaker 3: see a decent amount of work in that backfield before
[16:00] Speaker 3: he got hurt. And so now you look at this
[16:03] Speaker 3: coaching staff in particular with Harbaugh and company, and it's
[16:06] Speaker 3: kind of, you know, a veteran staff. And I'm not
[16:10] Speaker 3: going to be surprised if Najee Harris is just one
[16:13] Speaker 3: player that they lean on and like more than what
[16:16] Speaker 3: the fantasy masses want them to, you know, in the
[16:18] Speaker 3: way that we feel about that. So I still think
[16:21] Speaker 3: Cam Scadaboo is fine. I've cooled off on him the
[16:24] Speaker 3: last couple of months, but regardless, like the last month
[16:27] Speaker 3: or so, I think that we should bump him down
[16:29] Speaker 3: a little bit from this. And his ADP has fallen
[16:31] Speaker 3: a little bit. But it's not going to surprise me
[16:33] Speaker 3: if Harris has some role. I've actually drafted him a couple.
[16:37] Speaker 3: I haven't avoided drafting Najee Harris in the 19th, 20th
[16:40] Speaker 3: round because I wouldn't be surprised if he just ends
[16:44] Speaker 3: up playing as their RB2 this year.
[16:46] Speaker 1: And I mean, they're brothers, right? If John pick up
[16:48] Speaker 1: the phone and ask Jim what it was like having
[16:51] Speaker 1: him on the team in the running backs room as
[16:54] Speaker 1: a player, if Jim didn't endorse it, John and the
[16:57] Speaker 1: staff don't bring him into New York. So there's something there.
[17:02] Speaker 2: Let's talk fallers.
[17:03] Speaker 1: And Kyle Menungai has this nagging injury, which seems like
[17:08] Speaker 1: it is scaring a bunch of people off of drafting him.
[17:11] Speaker 1: He's fallen a full round over the last week. But JJ,
[17:16] Speaker 1: we know the money in best ball is later in
[17:18] Speaker 1: the season and perhaps a recovery might be in tune
[17:21] Speaker 1: for Mr.
[17:22] Speaker 4: Menungai.
[17:23] Speaker 2: Yeah, man, this is what we were talking about last week.
[17:25] Speaker 3: We're like, I'm trying to not like, make too big
[17:28] Speaker 3: of a deal out of the early season injuries. I
[17:31] Speaker 3: do think that, you know, Deandre Swift, who got pushed
[17:33] Speaker 3: up based on this news, he's like a mid fourth
[17:35] Speaker 3: round pick.
[17:36] Speaker 2: Now I like Swift.
[17:37] Speaker 3: I think that Swift is a good pick, but I'm
[17:40] Speaker 3: still drafting my nun guy when he falls.
[17:43] Speaker 2: And sometimes he falls even.
[17:44] Speaker 3: Further than like the round and ADP, just because, you know,
[17:47] Speaker 3: obviously some of this data needs a little time to
[17:49] Speaker 3: like fully catch up, but yeah, To me, Menungai is
[17:52] Speaker 3: still a decent click, decent enough click in a best
[17:55] Speaker 3: ball environment. He's actually a better and best ball player,
[17:57] Speaker 3: in my opinion, because I think there could be some
[18:00] Speaker 3: unpredictability in your managed league, especially a shallower league for him,
[18:05] Speaker 3: because there's not going to be that much pass catching upside, similar.
[18:07] Speaker 2: To how if you like a Chris Rodriguez or like
[18:09] Speaker 2: a J.K. Dobbins or whomever.
[18:10] Speaker 3: You know, they're they're better in basketball type players. But yeah,
[18:13] Speaker 3: I'm trying to not this just goes back to what
[18:15] Speaker 3: we talked last week. I'm trying to not overstate this
[18:17] Speaker 3: early season stuff because we could be looking at this
[18:20] Speaker 3: in week five and be like, oh, yeah, I forgot
[18:22] Speaker 3: he missed weeks one and two or whatever the case
[18:24] Speaker 3: may be.
[18:24] Speaker 2: He might not even miss any. Who knows? But I
[18:26] Speaker 2: don't want to draft injured players.
[18:28] Speaker 3: Don't get me wrong, but I am more OK with
[18:30] Speaker 3: drafting injured players who have a timetable to return that.
[18:34] Speaker 3: is early in the season when there's no bye weeks
[18:36] Speaker 3: and we have players that can fill in for them
[18:38] Speaker 3: in our, in our best ball lineup. So I'm still
[18:40] Speaker 3: drafting men on guy and my bear stacks.
[18:43] Speaker 4: Yeah.
[18:43] Speaker 2: I mean, that's, that's where I'm at with them overall.
[18:45] Speaker 1: Final guy, Rashad white. Everybody loves themselves. Some bill.
[18:51] Speaker 4: Yeah.
[18:51] Speaker 1: Nobody loves themselves. Some Rashad white.
[18:53] Speaker 2: I'm still drafting both of them.
[18:54] Speaker 3: I do think that Bill has kind of like, just
[18:57] Speaker 3: based on reliable beats out of Washington, sounds like that
[19:01] Speaker 3: they're getting him more involved as a pass catcher, which
[19:03] Speaker 3: is exactly what he needs. But look, in college, Bill's
[19:07] Speaker 3: best season reception share, and he was an older prospect.
[19:10] Speaker 3: In college, his best season reception share was 8%, which
[19:12] Speaker 3: is really low. It's like a 22nd percentile number. And
[19:15] Speaker 3: then last year, he had a sub 30% route share.
[19:18] Speaker 3: And Rashad White, in a non full-time role last year
[19:21] Speaker 3: was still in the top 20 in route share at
[19:23] Speaker 3: running back. So like, I still think that they're going
[19:25] Speaker 3: to have a split backfield and that's enough for me,
[19:27] Speaker 3: especially in a best ball environment to lean into the
[19:29] Speaker 3: ambiguous backfield while also recognizing that these guys both might
[19:32] Speaker 3: get and should get some usable weeks for this offense,
[19:36] Speaker 3: you know, Tunsell out, Regardless, you know, so I think
[19:40] Speaker 3: that this is the right kind of ambiguous backfield to
[19:42] Speaker 3: attack because there are outs for both of them. And
[19:44] Speaker 3: I think both of them have a very real chance
[19:47] Speaker 3: of giving you a number of usable weeks in a
[19:49] Speaker 3: best ball environment.
[19:50] Speaker 4: Yeah, totally agreed.
[19:51] Speaker 1: In the rare times that I've gone zero-ish or waited
[19:57] Speaker 1: a little bit on Running back, I mean, in this
[20:01] Speaker 1: PPR environment, someone like White is just such a nice
[20:04] Speaker 1: click to be able to grab there in the early
[20:06] Speaker 1: double digit rounds.
[20:07] Speaker 2: For sure. For sure.
[20:08] Speaker 3: All right, let's get to the guest. Mark Garcia, best
[20:11] Speaker 3: ball analyst of one week season. He does work for
[20:14] Speaker 3: stat rankings as well. It was a great conversation. You
[20:17] Speaker 3: guys will definitely learn something. There were times where I
[20:21] Speaker 3: had to like really focus. Now, I know that people
[20:24] Speaker 3: say this all the time about the late round podcast
[20:25] Speaker 3: where they're like, Sometimes I got to like really focus
[20:28] Speaker 3: on the things that you're saying because it's just boom, boom, boom, boom.
[20:30] Speaker 3: And I felt that way with Mark sometimes where I'm like,
[20:32] Speaker 3: I got to make sure I'm, you know, hearing what
[20:36] Speaker 3: he's saying here because he's going very deep into the
[20:39] Speaker 3: game theory world. And that's what this conversation was about.
[20:41] Speaker 3: We talked about Ashton Gentry. We talked about CLV. We
[20:44] Speaker 3: had a very deep discussion about zero RB that was
[20:47] Speaker 3: not surface level whatsoever. So hopefully you guys dig it.
[20:50] Speaker 3: I really enjoyed talking to him. So without further ado,
[20:54] Speaker 3: here is that interview.
[20:55] Speaker 2: With Mark Garcia. All right, Mark. So we had kind
[21:13] Speaker 2: of this.
[21:13] Speaker 3: Weird thing happen on Sunday where Ashton Jenty was thought
[21:17] Speaker 3: to essentially have lost his season where he gets hurt.
[21:20] Speaker 3: We didn't know if it was an ACL. We didn't
[21:22] Speaker 3: know exactly how long he would be out for. Now
[21:25] Speaker 3: we know that it was an ankle injury, but there
[21:27] Speaker 3: was this six-hour window where best ball drafts were going
[21:31] Speaker 3: on and folks were drafting Jenty as late as the
[21:33] Speaker 3: double-digit rounds.
[21:34] Speaker 2: Mike Washington was going as early as like round four,
[21:36] Speaker 2: round five.
[21:37] Speaker 3: My question to you is not necessarily specifically about the
[21:40] Speaker 3: Gentee situation in the Raiders' backfield. It's more when an
[21:44] Speaker 3: injury like this occurs and there's this unknown window, this
[21:48] Speaker 3: window of ambiguity, what is your game theory angle? And
[21:51] Speaker 3: do you think that people are now today sort of
[21:55] Speaker 3: making too big of a deal out of, oh, there
[21:58] Speaker 3: are these Millie rosters out there and lineups out there
[22:01] Speaker 3: that have Ash and Gentee round six that just ruined
[22:04] Speaker 3: the entire tournament?
[22:05] Speaker 4: Yeah, so two-part answer, I guess, for a two-part question, right?
[22:08] Speaker 4: To answer the first part, it comes down to risk management.
[22:12] Speaker 4: More broadly speaking, I think portfolio management. So if you're
[22:16] Speaker 4: a player that you just started drafting, put yourself in
[22:20] Speaker 4: a situation where you just started drafting on Sunday afternoon,
[22:25] Speaker 4: and you're going to use the last three weeks of
[22:27] Speaker 4: this draft window to draft your entire portfolio, whether that's
[22:31] Speaker 4: 20 drafts, 50 drafts, 100 drafts, however many you get in,
[22:34] Speaker 4: but you didn't start until right now. That's a different
[22:37] Speaker 4: discussion than if you have been drafting since late May,
[22:41] Speaker 4: and you've seen the ups and downs of the cycle
[22:44] Speaker 4: of ADP, you've gone through all the motions there, you've
[22:47] Speaker 4: seen how things have shaken out, and you can adjust
[22:50] Speaker 4: and basically... adjust your own portfolio versus what has already happened.
[22:55] Speaker 4: So two different, very different situations that would also require
[23:00] Speaker 4: very different answers. So you kind of have to look
[23:03] Speaker 4: introspectively and say, like, where do I fit in that spectrum?
[23:07] Speaker 4: And those are probably the two extreme examples, right? Where
[23:10] Speaker 4: do I fit in that spectrum? How should I optimally
[23:13] Speaker 4: approach this situation? So the answer is probably like, it depends,
[23:17] Speaker 4: which is like, everyone loves hearing that answer. But It
[23:20] Speaker 4: really does depend on your own portfolio, how many drafts
[23:23] Speaker 4: you're putting in. Say for me personally, if I'm putting
[23:27] Speaker 4: in 500, 750, 1,000 drafts even, and I've been drafting
[23:31] Speaker 4: since May, and I look at my Ashton Gentry exposure level,
[23:37] Speaker 4: and I'm at like 6% to 8%, which I was.
[23:40] Speaker 4: I was a little bit below market. I would want
[23:43] Speaker 4: exposure to later Ashton Gentry. Now, how far that like
[23:47] Speaker 4: and there's so much variance and so much extra stuff
[23:50] Speaker 4: that we can throw into that discussion. But that's really
[23:53] Speaker 4: what it boils down to is like, where is your
[23:56] Speaker 4: own risk management at for your own portfolio? Because it's
[24:00] Speaker 4: not really a one size fits all answer. Like we
[24:03] Speaker 4: could say, oh, yeah, we want to get exposure to Gentee.
[24:06] Speaker 4: But like if you just started drafting, you could say like,
[24:09] Speaker 4: I see that I have zero action on Gentee. This
[24:13] Speaker 4: is my first draft draft. Do I want to take
[24:16] Speaker 4: on that additional risk of, say, taking an AshenGT in
[24:20] Speaker 4: the sixth round where he was at the one-two turn? Again,
[24:24] Speaker 4: it's over to your own risk management. So it really
[24:28] Speaker 4: comes down to each individual user. I'd say from a
[24:31] Speaker 4: game theory-backed perspective, we should want to lean into increased
[24:37] Speaker 4: variance when the field is kind of shying away from that.
[24:41] Speaker 4: We'll talk a little bit more about that too, because
[24:43] Speaker 4: there's this whole discussion to be had about like what
[24:47] Speaker 4: leads up to this discussion over the last four months.
[24:51] Speaker 4: But that's kind of the short answer. Now I forget
[24:53] Speaker 4: what the second part.
[24:54] Speaker 2: Of the question is.
[24:56] Speaker 3: So I've been having so many discussions recently on the
[24:58] Speaker 3: show about CLV.
[25:00] Speaker 4: Right.
[25:01] Speaker 3: Because I think on one hand, of course, we all
[25:04] Speaker 3: understand you want CLV. Of course, you want positive and
[25:06] Speaker 3: favorable CLV because that's going to help your portfolio. But
[25:10] Speaker 3: then I see the reactions that I'm seeing on social
[25:13] Speaker 3: media today where there are people basically saying like those
[25:17] Speaker 3: teams are the ones to beat because they got Ashton
[25:19] Speaker 3: Gentry in round six. And, you know, obviously he's obviously
[25:23] Speaker 3: banged up. But I want to hear your take on
[25:25] Speaker 3: like why that response is probably just too extreme in general,
[25:31] Speaker 3: you know, with the way that that things went down.
[25:33] Speaker 4: There is so much variance and all come like a
[25:36] Speaker 4: lot of what we're going to discuss comes back to
[25:38] Speaker 4: this buzzword variance. There's so much variance in this contest
[25:42] Speaker 4: that we're playing. You can't say with any shred of
[25:47] Speaker 4: like certainty that that having Ashton Jinty in the sixth
[25:51] Speaker 4: round is any more beneficial to having him in the,
[25:53] Speaker 4: at the one, two turn. We have no idea. And
[25:57] Speaker 4: especially for playoff formats, your draft Kings, your, your BBMs.
[26:03] Speaker 4: It's a little bit of a more, even more nuanced
[26:06] Speaker 4: discussion for cumulative formats that, where obviously you draft a
[26:10] Speaker 4: team and you're playing for most points between weeks one
[26:14] Speaker 4: and 17. But for playoff style formats, we have to
[26:18] Speaker 4: understand that we really only have one way of measuring
[26:23] Speaker 4: success in this contest because we have such a small
[26:28] Speaker 4: sample size. And that's really expected value. And the thing
[26:33] Speaker 4: with expected value is there's a couple of assumptions that
[26:36] Speaker 4: not a lot of people understand when we're talking about
[26:39] Speaker 4: expected value. One, it assumes an infinite sample size. We
[26:42] Speaker 4: don't have that. So like who's to say that our
[26:47] Speaker 4: expected value will have, like, even if we played this
[26:49] Speaker 4: till we're a hundred years old every single year and
[26:53] Speaker 4: all these contests remain the same throughout that time period,
[26:56] Speaker 4: like we still don't have a sample to say, I'm
[26:58] Speaker 4: a good best ball player. I'm a bad best ball player.
[27:00] Speaker 4: Like we just don't know. But the second thing that
[27:03] Speaker 4: expected value is, assumes is that all other players have
[27:10] Speaker 4: a similar starting point to us. And we're gonna get
[27:14] Speaker 4: like heavy in the game theory here. The assumption of like,
[27:18] Speaker 4: and I'll liken it to poker in this, I hope
[27:20] Speaker 4: this isn't too meandering of a discussion.
[27:22] Speaker 2: There's a lot to like, no, I think that's important.
[27:24] Speaker 4: Yeah, the thing that we can measure being expected value,
[27:28] Speaker 4: it assumes game theory, optimal play. Now, With Game Theory
[27:34] Speaker 4: Optimal Play, we'll liken it to poker, right? And that's
[27:37] Speaker 4: my personal background in the gambling spheres. I had my
[27:41] Speaker 4: come up in poker. Started playing when I was 14
[27:44] Speaker 4: under my dad's name, which was how I got my
[27:47] Speaker 4: come up into this sector of gambling. But in Game
[27:53] Speaker 4: Theory Optimal in poker, there are some assumptions. One being
[27:58] Speaker 4: the infinite sample size, two being that everybody else that
[28:00] Speaker 4: you're playing is also abiding by game theory optimal play.
[28:05] Speaker 4: So then if everybody's on the same playing field, we
[28:09] Speaker 4: can accurately analyze expected value and we can accurately analyze
[28:14] Speaker 4: if these plays that we are making are profitable or not.
[28:19] Speaker 4: So loop that back to best ball. If we know
[28:23] Speaker 4: for certain, and we know this in poker too, like
[28:25] Speaker 4: not everybody is playing game theory optimal poker. If we
[28:28] Speaker 4: know now that not everybody is playing theoretically optimal best
[28:33] Speaker 4: ball play, that calculation for expected value is even more muddied.
[28:38] Speaker 4: So those are two things fighting against us here to say, like,
[28:42] Speaker 4: are we playing this game as optimally as we can?
[28:46] Speaker 4: And now our answer is like, I don't know. We
[28:49] Speaker 4: don't have the sample. we variances off the charts. So
[28:52] Speaker 4: if we're talking about like a specific player or a
[28:56] Speaker 4: specific situation as you cannot overcome that, like sixth round
[29:01] Speaker 4: Ashton JT, you can't say that we have no idea.
[29:05] Speaker 4: And then you talk about like playoff style format contest.
[29:08] Speaker 4: The variance is amplified that much further. You know, like,
[29:12] Speaker 4: is it one of 16 advancing from week 16 to
[29:15] Speaker 4: week 17? Is it one of 12? Is it one
[29:17] Speaker 4: of four? All these things go into the, This calculation
[29:20] Speaker 4: of expected value. Now, the one thing that we do
[29:23] Speaker 4: know about expected value, and we're able to calculate this,
[29:27] Speaker 4: is where does the expected value from these contests come from?
[29:31] Speaker 4: If we add it all up, about 80%, and again,
[29:35] Speaker 4: this is going to change based on the format and
[29:37] Speaker 4: how many people are advancing weeks 14, 15, 16. 14, 15, 16,
[29:40] Speaker 4: whatever the case may be, right? About 80% of our
[29:43] Speaker 4: expected value in playoff formats comes from the combination of
[29:47] Speaker 4: advancement rate and week 17. So if we know that
[29:51] Speaker 4: those are the two most important things, we should, theoretically speaking,
[29:54] Speaker 4: be focused on those two things the heaviest. Right. So
[29:58] Speaker 4: there's a lot of talk this year and last year
[30:00] Speaker 4: about like. week 17 is all that matters or advancement
[30:04] Speaker 4: rates all that matters. Like, no, neither of those is
[30:07] Speaker 4: correct mathematically speaking, but those are the two things that
[30:11] Speaker 4: we can kind of control the most when we're putting
[30:13] Speaker 4: together these rosters. So like, do we care about week
[30:17] Speaker 4: 15 correlation and week 16 correlation and game stacking? Like
[30:21] Speaker 4: we probably shouldn't, like the math says we shouldn't, like
[30:23] Speaker 4: that's how we get to week 17. But the two
[30:26] Speaker 4: things we should be focused on the most are advancement
[30:29] Speaker 4: rate and then optimizing for week 17. So to say
[30:34] Speaker 4: sixth round Ashton Genting when 75% of the field has
[30:38] Speaker 4: won two turn Ashton Genting, we just don't know, dude.
[30:43] Speaker 4: Let's let the variance shake out. Let's play this game
[30:46] Speaker 4: a little bit.
[30:47] Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that that's, especially the playoff stuff is
[30:49] Speaker 3: so key. And this is where I've been having a
[30:51] Speaker 3: lot of discussion with people, especially Malik Neighbors is a
[30:54] Speaker 3: great example of this because obviously folks were getting him
[30:56] Speaker 3: at like, late fourth for some of the summer into
[30:59] Speaker 3: the fifth sometimes. And now he's not going there because
[31:02] Speaker 3: we obviously know the end result. And like, I've dumbed
[31:05] Speaker 3: it down to essentially saying, look, if Malik neighbors has
[31:10] Speaker 3: a great week 15 through 17 stretch and dominates there,
[31:14] Speaker 3: you could take, you could argue you should take him
[31:16] Speaker 3: one Oh one, right? Like, like you, like you, there's,
[31:19] Speaker 3: there's no telling that like he's a good or bad pick.
[31:22] Speaker 2: At that point. And there's also so many other variables.
[31:25] Speaker 3: In a, in a 20 team on DK lineup that
[31:28] Speaker 3: can influence this, that I do think that we get
[31:31] Speaker 3: to a point of just like, dumbing down what best
[31:34] Speaker 3: ball is when we say, oh, other teams have Ashton
[31:37] Speaker 3: Genting in round nine now.
[31:39] Speaker 2: Oh, I'm dead.
[31:40] Speaker 3: I can't I can't come back from that. But Genting
[31:42] Speaker 3: is very easily able to have a dud, you know,
[31:46] Speaker 3: and it's similar to like even last year. I remember,
[31:48] Speaker 3: you know, obviously running early around running back did great
[31:52] Speaker 3: last year, generally speaking. but then you get into the
[31:54] Speaker 3: playoffs or like Saquon, remember Saquon's great year a couple
[31:57] Speaker 3: of years ago. And then you get into the playoffs
[31:59] Speaker 3: and like that, that first week of the playoffs, like he,
[32:01] Speaker 3: he gave you a dud. And then all of a sudden,
[32:02] Speaker 3: a lot of those teams struggled because he was carrying
[32:05] Speaker 3: those teams into advancing. And he was a big part
[32:08] Speaker 3: of that. I shouldn't say he was just carrying, but
[32:10] Speaker 3: he was a big part of it, obviously. And so,
[32:12] Speaker 3: you know, it just goes into, into your point about
[32:14] Speaker 3: variance and about the fact that like, there are so
[32:17] Speaker 3: many inputs here that I don't want to overthink. And
[32:19] Speaker 3: this is my, my general theme this year. And maybe
[32:22] Speaker 3: this is like, kind of like under thinking it but
[32:26] Speaker 3: like i think clv might be a little bit overrated
[32:30] Speaker 3: from the standpoint of this what variances and and what
[32:34] Speaker 3: kind of clv you're actually getting of course we would
[32:36] Speaker 3: rather be on the favorable side of clv like of
[32:38] Speaker 3: course and this is not like i i joked earlier
[32:41] Speaker 3: because i was a little bit underweight on like neighbors
[32:43] Speaker 3: and i joked earlier i was like this is i
[32:45] Speaker 3: promise you this is not cope for for the uh
[32:47] Speaker 3: you know the the slight underweight with neighbors thinking i
[32:50] Speaker 3: could get neighbors cheaper as the you know as the
[32:51] Speaker 3: summer went on But to me, it's just like I
[32:54] Speaker 3: have a ton of Stefan Diggs, right? And I got
[32:56] Speaker 3: Diggs in round 12, round 13. Yes, I'm at a
[32:59] Speaker 3: slight advantage probably with that, but I don't think that
[33:03] Speaker 3: we can definitively say one way or another that this
[33:06] Speaker 3: is definitely just the way that this season's gonna go
[33:10] Speaker 3: and that these lineups are just gonna dominate.
[33:11] Speaker 2: We just have no clue at the end.
[33:13] Speaker 4: Yeah, and let's unpack that through a theoretical framework a
[33:16] Speaker 4: little bit more. When is the only time in ADP's
[33:22] Speaker 4: life cycle that projections are influencing the numbers?
[33:29] Speaker 2: I mean, I would imagine throughout ADP, When they're set.
[33:33] Speaker 4: So when the contest kicks off, that's the only time.
[33:36] Speaker 2: Oh, I got you. I got what you're saying.
[33:38] Speaker 4: Yeah, sorry. That was probably framed a little poorly.
[33:40] Speaker 2: No, no, no, no.
[33:42] Speaker 4: You're right.
[33:42] Speaker 3: I mean, ADP is, you're saying ADP is framed when
[33:47] Speaker 3: projections are originally set and that's the framework that we're
[33:51] Speaker 3: working off of.
[33:52] Speaker 4: That's the only time throughout, you know, from late May
[33:55] Speaker 4: to September. Right. Where the ADP numbers are mathematically influenced
[34:01] Speaker 4: solely by projections. Correct. Right. After that, it's heavily industry sentiment,
[34:07] Speaker 4: player inputs.
[34:08] Speaker 2: Yeah, sure.
[34:09] Speaker 4: Beat writers. Yeah. It influences all that stuff. So if
[34:14] Speaker 4: we look at like the life cycle of ADP and
[34:18] Speaker 4: we like to think that it approaches more In game
[34:23] Speaker 4: theory framework, we say Nash equilibrium, which is like the
[34:27] Speaker 4: most perfect state of balance where no player can gain
[34:31] Speaker 4: an appreciable edge over another through any action. And we
[34:35] Speaker 4: know that ADP never reaches Nash equilibrium. So it's never perfect.
[34:39] Speaker 4: But we like to think that as it approaches September,
[34:41] Speaker 4: ADP becomes more accurate. Even that thinking, that framework of
[34:47] Speaker 4: thinking is... a fool's errand because we are so far
[34:53] Speaker 4: removed from that ADP structure having any mathematical basis that
[34:58] Speaker 4: it doesn't matter. So within that discussion, if we look
[35:02] Speaker 4: at closing line value, yeah, we want to think because
[35:05] Speaker 4: we think we have control over this stuff as humans.
[35:08] Speaker 4: We want to be like, this is my comfy area.
[35:10] Speaker 4: I beat closing line value. Yippee, woohoo. There's all this
[35:15] Speaker 4: variant stuff that still has to happen. like during the season,
[35:19] Speaker 4: before the season injuries. And we can talk about all
[35:24] Speaker 4: the variance stuff a little bit heavier later, but like
[35:27] Speaker 4: closing line value means next to nothing. And like there
[35:32] Speaker 4: have been, and I don't want to, I don't want
[35:34] Speaker 4: to poo poo on, on the good work that has
[35:37] Speaker 4: been done in best ball to describe closing line value,
[35:41] Speaker 4: but that's exactly what it is. It's descriptive in nature.
[35:44] Speaker 4: It's saying that these, these, rosters that finished top 0.1%
[35:49] Speaker 4: or top 10, or however we want to work out
[35:52] Speaker 4: that sample size, we're describing what those rosters had in
[35:57] Speaker 4: common referencing closing line value. So it's completely descriptive in nature.
[36:03] Speaker 4: It is 0% predictive. It doesn't mean anything to us.
[36:07] Speaker 4: It just means that like we are able to capitalize
[36:11] Speaker 4: on ADP fluctuations in a plus EV.
[36:14] Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a really good point.
[36:15] Speaker 3: I do think that that gets lost in a lot
[36:18] Speaker 3: of this is how and why ADP is moving the
[36:22] Speaker 3: way that it's moving, right? Without really thinking through like,
[36:26] Speaker 3: is this a mathematically sound reason as to why this
[36:29] Speaker 3: is happening right now?
[36:30] Speaker 2: Or is it simply..
[36:33] Speaker 3: If you draft throughout the summer, you see the ADP
[36:35] Speaker 3: shifts just based off of a hamstring injury that we
[36:38] Speaker 3: know will be fine. You know, I mean, look at
[36:41] Speaker 3: like Makai Lemon right now, for instance, or, you know,
[36:44] Speaker 3: maybe you don't want to go the rookie route. I
[36:45] Speaker 3: think the more interesting example of this is like the
[36:49] Speaker 3: Chuba Hubbard, Jonathan Brooks stuff that's going on right now.
[36:52] Speaker 4: Oh, yeah, that's a pretty extreme example.
[36:54] Speaker 3: Yeah, where we start the summer and Chuba Hubbard has
[36:58] Speaker 3: an ADP above Jonathan Brooks. Obviously, there's this Jonathan Brooks
[37:01] Speaker 3: injury stuff that we're getting more and more confident because
[37:04] Speaker 3: he's just playing. But I think that in most outcomes,
[37:08] Speaker 3: Jonathan Brooks would have just been playing and not gotten
[37:10] Speaker 3: hurt just based on where things were at. But regardless,
[37:14] Speaker 3: even after the Chuba Hubbard injury that recently happened, and
[37:17] Speaker 3: even though the timetable was pushing him at week one...
[37:21] Speaker 3: The gap in and this is where it's interesting because
[37:23] Speaker 3: like season long, you're not seeing this this gap at all.
[37:25] Speaker 2: I mean, it does not exist in a season long environment.
[37:27] Speaker 3: It's the the reactive best ball brain that this is
[37:30] Speaker 3: really happening more. But on DK, you'll get Jonathan Brooks
[37:33] Speaker 3: at the end of round six at eight from from
[37:35] Speaker 3: an ADP perspective now. And Trouba Hubbard's around 11 pick.
[37:38] Speaker 4: Right?
[37:39] Speaker 2: And I'm not even a pro Chuba analyst.
[37:43] Speaker 3: I think that there's a lot to like about Jonathan Brooks,
[37:45] Speaker 3: and I was drafting him a lot, and I was
[37:47] Speaker 3: in on it. But there comes a point in time
[37:49] Speaker 3: where it's very clear that some of the shifting in
[37:53] Speaker 3: ADP is very just vibes-based and based on what some
[37:57] Speaker 3: of the news items are saying, as opposed to, what
[37:59] Speaker 3: does this actually mean?
[38:01] Speaker 2: What is this doing? What do my projections look like,
[38:02] Speaker 2: as you noted?
[38:03] Speaker 3: Whatever the case may be, how are we logically thinking
[38:05] Speaker 3: about where this player should go. What I'm wondering right
[38:09] Speaker 3: now is how much more efficient your drafting would be
[38:14] Speaker 3: if you do anchor a little bit more towards that
[38:17] Speaker 3: initial ADP look, right? Because if that ADP is more
[38:23] Speaker 3: anchored on what our projections are saying, and there's going
[38:26] Speaker 3: to be some plenty of cases where we're shifting projections
[38:29] Speaker 3: just based off of news items and stuff like that,
[38:31] Speaker 3: or whatever the case may be, just health or what
[38:34] Speaker 3: have you. Obviously, Malik Neighbors, we're shifting our projections on
[38:36] Speaker 3: because Malik Neighbors is now seemingly a lot healthier than
[38:39] Speaker 3: we thought back in May or something like that.
[38:42] Speaker 2: But I do wonder, because I haven't done enough analysis.
[38:45] Speaker 3: We do a lot of analysis on the end ADP,
[38:48] Speaker 3: end of August ADP, and what that looks like. But
[38:51] Speaker 3: seeing the shifts and how much more predictive or less
[38:53] Speaker 3: predictive that really is, I think is something that we
[38:55] Speaker 3: should at least keep in mind while we're drafting.
[38:57] Speaker 4: Within that same discussion, this is really the first year
[39:02] Speaker 4: where things like AI is really coming into play. We've
[39:07] Speaker 4: had AI around for three, four years now, but it
[39:09] Speaker 4: was never something that we could confidently train yet. We'll
[39:15] Speaker 4: phrase it like that. Now, we have the ability to
[39:20] Speaker 4: train an AI to think how we want it to think.
[39:24] Speaker 4: And within that, we can feed it starting ADP. We
[39:29] Speaker 4: can feed it injuries that happen. We can feed it.
[39:33] Speaker 4: We can say like, hey, we'll go back to the
[39:36] Speaker 4: Carolina backfield example. We can say it probably, the projections
[39:41] Speaker 4: probably started as 65, 35 to 60, 40 in favor
[39:45] Speaker 4: of Chuba Hubbard as far as workload split went. We
[39:48] Speaker 4: can now say, let's shift that to 55, 45 in
[39:51] Speaker 4: favor the other way and say, yeah, project this out,
[39:57] Speaker 4: rank them, give me a new updated ADP, see where
[39:59] Speaker 4: that settles. I can guarantee you, it's not going to
[40:01] Speaker 4: be a complete flip flop of their ADPs from Chuba
[40:05] Speaker 4: Hubbard in the sixth round. And, um, and where he's
[40:09] Speaker 4: now at 11, uh, and the other way around, like
[40:12] Speaker 4: from probably 14, Jonathan Brooks started like 14.
[40:17] Speaker 2: And now he's up.
[40:18] Speaker 4: To the sixth. It's probably going to have them both settle.
[40:20] Speaker 4: If we just, again, just went purely by projections, uh, and, and,
[40:25] Speaker 4: and we can feed this engine to learn like us.
[40:29] Speaker 4: Now we can say like, that's probably going to put
[40:30] Speaker 4: both those backs in the seven to eight, nine round range. Right.
[40:35] Speaker 4: That would be, that would be the game theory, optimal
[40:37] Speaker 4: answer of when we want to be targeting those players. Right. Right. The,
[40:42] Speaker 4: there's more variants and stuff that we can talk about
[40:44] Speaker 4: that goes into this discussion too, but this is now
[40:49] Speaker 4: something that we can do. Like this is, this is
[40:52] Speaker 4: where we are. In 2026, as far as AI goes.
[40:57] Speaker 4: So if you wanted to simply every single day have
[41:01] Speaker 4: an AI repopulate in an ADP based solely on projections
[41:07] Speaker 4: and remove all the noise from the industry, from the
[41:10] Speaker 4: talking heads, from everybody that's playing this game, we can
[41:13] Speaker 4: do that. And that would probably if we were all
[41:17] Speaker 4: if and again, if we were playing game theory optimal
[41:19] Speaker 4: and everybody else was playing game theory optimal, that would
[41:22] Speaker 4: probably be what we wanted to do and draft based
[41:26] Speaker 4: on that ranking.
[41:27] Speaker 3: I do want to ask you, too, about some of
[41:30] Speaker 3: these more unknown commodities that have been getting steam. You know,
[41:33] Speaker 3: Dajon Stribling, Jacoby Lane could throw like a Caleb Douglas
[41:37] Speaker 3: in there. A lot of these rookie wide receivers, even like,
[41:40] Speaker 3: you know, a Pat Bryant, Dontavian Wicks, you know, they've
[41:42] Speaker 3: been rising a little bit as well. In these cases,
[41:45] Speaker 3: are you leaning into the hype? Are you afraid to
[41:47] Speaker 3: lean into the rising ADPs? Or is it just like
[41:50] Speaker 3: a case-by-case thing for you? How do you view those
[41:53] Speaker 3: sort of cases of these unknowns rising?
[41:56] Speaker 4: It's a case-by-case basis with one specific caveat for me.
[42:00] Speaker 4: That specific caveat is late round wide receivers have an
[42:05] Speaker 4: extremely low hit rate in basketball. We know this. This
[42:10] Speaker 4: has been proven. I mean, it's like Pukunukua and nobody else.
[42:15] Speaker 4: The hit rate is extremely low. And when we're talking
[42:18] Speaker 4: hit rate, we want like league winner stuff. We're playing
[42:22] Speaker 4: best ball. We're not talking about like Jacoby Lane returns
[42:26] Speaker 4: 14th round value and he was being drafted in the 17th.
[42:29] Speaker 4: Like that doesn't do much for us. We want like
[42:33] Speaker 4: world beaters. We want the And that's what we need
[42:35] Speaker 4: to be targeting in the later rounds. I think this
[42:38] Speaker 4: is a key mistake that the field is still making.
[42:42] Speaker 4: We want to have that semblance of control in this
[42:45] Speaker 4: game that has so much variance. So we play it
[42:49] Speaker 4: safe in the later rounds. We should be swinging for
[42:52] Speaker 4: the fences. And when we look at the historic hit
[42:56] Speaker 4: rates of wide receivers coming from rounds 15 to 18,
[42:59] Speaker 4: and we can say, you can frame that whether that's
[43:02] Speaker 4: where they start in ADP or where that's where they finish.
[43:05] Speaker 4: Like it really doesn't matter. I would say it's probably
[43:08] Speaker 4: more accurate to frame it when ADP is released based
[43:11] Speaker 4: off initial projections. So that encompasses all the names that
[43:14] Speaker 4: you just listed off. So knowing that the hit rate
[43:18] Speaker 4: of wide receivers found in that range is extremely low, again,
[43:22] Speaker 4: talking about like players that actually make a difference in
[43:25] Speaker 4: best ball, I would say it's probably futile. It just
[43:30] Speaker 4: blanket statement. It's probably futile to be chasing those players up.
[43:36] Speaker 4: The flip side of that is historically where do like
[43:41] Speaker 4: world beaters value come from? What positions in the 15th
[43:46] Speaker 4: to 18th round it's running backs and tight ends, right? So,
[43:51] Speaker 4: I just kind of blanket statement want to be targeting
[43:55] Speaker 4: running backs and tight ends at a heavier frequency in
[43:58] Speaker 4: those later rounds, which by extension means that I don't
[44:02] Speaker 4: really want to be chasing those wide receivers up. Now,
[44:06] Speaker 4: there's this like I know better or I know best
[44:11] Speaker 4: like human mentality where even I fall victim to it,
[44:15] Speaker 4: which is like. Oh man, Dajon Stripling's pretty fucking good, dude.
[44:20] Speaker 4: I kind of want a little bit there. So I
[44:23] Speaker 4: think it's fine. I would say that not all of
[44:28] Speaker 4: those players are created equal. Let's just compare Dontavian Wicks
[44:32] Speaker 4: to Dajon Stripling. What is the ceiling case to be
[44:36] Speaker 4: made for each of those players? Stripling's, and it'll probably
[44:41] Speaker 4: take a lot of stuff going his way. He has
[44:45] Speaker 4: a lot of aging... skill position players are surrounding him
[44:48] Speaker 4: on that offense, right? Mike Evans, 33, George Kittle, 32, 33,
[44:52] Speaker 4: Christian McCaffrey, 30. So the thing, the path to like
[45:00] Speaker 4: pure ceiling outcome is probably a little bit more straightforward
[45:05] Speaker 4: for a guy like Deshaun Stribling, where Kyle Shanahan offense,
[45:09] Speaker 4: if things go right, Debo Samuel gets hurt. Mike Evans
[45:12] Speaker 4: gets hurt. George Kittle is, you know, coming back off
[45:15] Speaker 4: an ACL tear. or Achilles injury, it's probably a little
[45:19] Speaker 4: bit cleaner and clearer case for the pure upside for
[45:23] Speaker 4: a guy like Dijon Stribling compared to like Dontavian Wicks,
[45:26] Speaker 4: where it's like, we've seen him be really, really efficient
[45:30] Speaker 4: on a per target basis, right? But he's still, there's
[45:33] Speaker 4: a reason that he was not a heavier snap rate
[45:36] Speaker 4: player in Green Bay. He doesn't do like the down
[45:38] Speaker 4: and dirty stuff as well. Directly compare that to Dijon Stribling,
[45:42] Speaker 4: who is one of the more polished, like all around
[45:44] Speaker 4: wide receivers come out of this class. He's able to
[45:47] Speaker 4: get in the trenches. He's able to block for runs.
[45:49] Speaker 4: He's able to do all that nitty-gritty stuff that you
[45:52] Speaker 4: have to kind of do in a Kyle Shanahan offense.
[45:54] Speaker 4: Going back to Pukunukuwa, which we brought up earlier, he
[45:58] Speaker 4: did all that shit really well too coming out of college.
[46:02] Speaker 4: There's a reason why he was on the field a
[46:04] Speaker 4: lot more than we thought he would be. It's because
[46:06] Speaker 4: he did all that other stuff right. Just directly comparing,
[46:10] Speaker 4: I would want to chase a guy like DeJount Stripling
[46:12] Speaker 4: a little bit up more than a guy like Dontavion Wicks,
[46:15] Speaker 4: even Jacoby Lane. His path to pure ceiling is probably
[46:21] Speaker 4: a lot more muddied just comparing the two directly.
[46:26] Speaker 3: So you said something in there about kind of chasing
[46:29] Speaker 3: ceiling and going after those league winning types. So I'm
[46:32] Speaker 3: curious how you feel about the notion that has definitely
[46:36] Speaker 3: been pushed, especially me talking to best ball bros on
[46:40] Speaker 3: this show or just interacting with people on social media.
[46:44] Speaker 3: But the idea of not drafting zeros late in your draft,
[46:48] Speaker 3: this notion of like, You want somebody that's getting you something.
[46:52] Speaker 3: So therefore, I don't want that to mean that those
[46:56] Speaker 3: people are saying chase floor. I don't think that that's
[46:59] Speaker 3: necessarily the true outcome of what they're stating and saying.
[47:05] Speaker 3: But I do think that someone listening to this might
[47:08] Speaker 3: want to hear your take on that because it seems
[47:11] Speaker 3: a little bit different than what others have generally said
[47:16] Speaker 3: about not taking those zeros.
[47:19] Speaker 4: And I know exactly what you're talking about. And again,
[47:24] Speaker 4: the reason I think the reason for that notion is
[47:28] Speaker 4: more descriptive in nature. It's saying, let's see what has
[47:32] Speaker 4: worked over the six, five seasons of best ball data
[47:36] Speaker 4: that we have. And it's like, okay, sweeping generalization here.
[47:41] Speaker 4: We see that taking zeros is harmful for where it
[47:46] Speaker 4: matters the most in the playoff rounds. It also influences,
[47:51] Speaker 4: taking zeros heavily influences your advancement rate. So we know
[47:56] Speaker 4: that advancement rate and week 17 are the two highest
[48:00] Speaker 4: contributors to expected value where all the money is made
[48:03] Speaker 4: in these contests. If I flip that mindset and say,
[48:09] Speaker 4: we are playing these contests to win the entire thing, right?
[48:15] Speaker 4: And this is coming from DFS background here. It's kind
[48:20] Speaker 4: of akin to a 50-50 mindset or a cash game
[48:23] Speaker 4: mindset versus a GPP mindset. If the goal is to
[48:28] Speaker 4: have a 40% advancement rate and just let variance handle
[48:33] Speaker 4: the rest, I think it's fine to say, I don't
[48:37] Speaker 4: want to take zeros in the later rounds. Because that's
[48:41] Speaker 4: where that comes into play. It comes into play in
[48:43] Speaker 4: advancement rate. And that's fine. We still don't know what
[48:49] Speaker 4: we want to be optimizing for outside of what's optimal.
[48:54] Speaker 4: So if I flip that into my GPP mindset, it
[49:00] Speaker 4: is where can I, or how can I absolutely lap
[49:06] Speaker 4: the field? How do I get position myself, my portfolio,
[49:11] Speaker 4: the individual rosters in my portfolio to have the highest
[49:14] Speaker 4: upside to go and win this thing? And that is
[49:19] Speaker 4: shooting for the outlier stuff. So my frame of thinking
[49:25] Speaker 4: is I want to be okay leaning into variance a
[49:28] Speaker 4: little bit more, especially in the later rounds and take
[49:33] Speaker 4: those home run shots. Because if we think of an
[49:35] Speaker 4: 18 team or 18 player roster or a 20 player roster,
[49:39] Speaker 4: as we have on like drafters and DK, we have
[49:44] Speaker 4: the ability to absorb some of that miss or some
[49:46] Speaker 4: of those misses. We're playing nine players on a weekly basis.
[49:52] Speaker 4: We have double that plus on each roster that we
[49:56] Speaker 4: put into play. So bringing that kind of full circle,
[50:00] Speaker 4: giving a specific example for this season, like my late
[50:07] Speaker 4: round targets are almost always All running backs and tight ends.
[50:11] Speaker 4: It's I want to be putting myself in the position
[50:13] Speaker 4: to make the most if I am right. And the
[50:17] Speaker 4: way to do that is to look at the data.
[50:20] Speaker 4: Where do league winners from the later rounds come from?
[50:22] Speaker 4: Most often from running backs and tight ends. Yeah. I'm
[50:26] Speaker 4: okay taking misses. I want to be swinging. and understand
[50:31] Speaker 4: that that's going to influence my advancement rate a little
[50:34] Speaker 4: bit and be okay with that. So everybody should have
[50:39] Speaker 4: their own answer to this question or this discussion. It
[50:43] Speaker 4: should come down to your own personal risk management and
[50:46] Speaker 4: how you want to be optimizing your portfolio. Now, all
[50:50] Speaker 4: of that comes with the caveat that we have to
[50:53] Speaker 4: have basic roster construction down Because none of this theory
[50:57] Speaker 4: stuff matters if we're like drafting four running backs in
[51:01] Speaker 4: the first five rounds or we're not taking or we're
[51:05] Speaker 4: like take two quarterbacks in the first 10 rounds. You
[51:08] Speaker 4: just don't do those things. You can't and be profitable.
[51:12] Speaker 4: So all that comes with the obvious caveat that like
[51:15] Speaker 4: we have to understand how to most profitably construct these
[51:19] Speaker 4: rosters that we're building.
[51:20] Speaker 3: Well, my follow-up to that is actually something that I
[51:22] Speaker 3: wanted to chat with you about, and that's obviously general strategy,
[51:26] Speaker 3: but let's skip the general strategy of what's going to
[51:30] Speaker 3: work this year and just go straight into zero RB,
[51:33] Speaker 3: because that's kind of a strategy that will then dictate
[51:37] Speaker 3: a lot of the other strategies that you might take
[51:39] Speaker 3: in best ball in general. And your answer to the
[51:42] Speaker 3: last one makes me curious of, if you are going
[51:45] Speaker 3: heavy zero RB right now, this year as a both,
[51:49] Speaker 3: you know, what hits late or, you know, you've done
[51:51] Speaker 3: research and it shows that, you know, obviously late round
[51:54] Speaker 3: running backs and tight ends are going to give you
[51:55] Speaker 3: much better hit rates. than late round wide receivers, which
[51:58] Speaker 3: then in turn means, well, in the earlier rounds, does
[52:00] Speaker 3: that mean that you are going more zero RB? And
[52:03] Speaker 3: is that also, so that's the first part. But then
[52:06] Speaker 3: the second part of that is, is this also a
[52:09] Speaker 3: zig while other zag type situation? Because we are seeing
[52:12] Speaker 3: running backs get pushed up a little bit more in the,
[52:14] Speaker 3: in the best ball environment.
[52:16] Speaker 4: One word answer. Yes. The, the, the rest of that
[52:21] Speaker 4: discussion is a little bit more nuanced. So Zero RB
[52:26] Speaker 4: is going to be much more beneficial to playoff formats
[52:30] Speaker 4: because in cumulative, we don't have a 14-week window as
[52:37] Speaker 4: being round one. We don't have the additional... fluff in
[52:43] Speaker 4: there built in. We have to be performing. Yeah. Right.
[52:46] Speaker 4: We have to be performing at peak performance for 17.
[52:48] Speaker 2: Yeah.
[52:50] Speaker 4: So zero RB is less viable in cumulative. And I
[52:54] Speaker 4: say less, there's still a semblance. There's still room to
[52:58] Speaker 4: take some swings. We have to first understand like what
[53:02] Speaker 4: zero running back was built for.
[53:05] Speaker 1: Agreed.
[53:06] Speaker 4: Yes. It was built to harness the injury variance at
[53:11] Speaker 4: the running back. Or just blanket statement again, running backs
[53:16] Speaker 4: historically have been injured at a higher rate than any
[53:19] Speaker 4: of the other skill positions in the NFL. Now that's
[53:23] Speaker 4: what zero RB was built to harness, that injury variance.
[53:29] Speaker 4: We look at the past three seasons and running back
[53:33] Speaker 4: injury rates are way down. What has been the highest
[53:37] Speaker 4: injury rates over the last three seasons? Quarterback and wide receiver.
[53:41] Speaker 4: So to say like zero RB is dead is just
[53:44] Speaker 4: completely missing the mark of one, what it is. And two,
[53:49] Speaker 4: the variance, the injury variance that has been associated with
[53:52] Speaker 4: recent history. So zero RB is absolutely not dead. And
[53:59] Speaker 4: if the field is using it at a lower frequency
[54:02] Speaker 4: than historic tendencies, we should want to at least be
[54:06] Speaker 4: drafting zero RB as much as we were four years ago,
[54:10] Speaker 4: if not more. Yeah. To leverage those field tendencies. And
[54:16] Speaker 4: I would say, again, it's a little bit more beneficial
[54:19] Speaker 4: to us in those playoff style formats where we have
[54:22] Speaker 4: the additional slop. to make up for, you know, one
[54:25] Speaker 4: or two down weeks at the running back position within
[54:28] Speaker 4: a 14 week window. But I mean, you know, we,
[54:31] Speaker 4: we had a little, we dipped our toes in on
[54:34] Speaker 4: Sunday with the Ashton Gentry stuff. Like that could have
[54:37] Speaker 4: been a massive thing and it still could be, we,
[54:39] Speaker 4: we really don't have any, we don't know what the
[54:41] Speaker 4: injury is. It started off being, we think it's a
[54:44] Speaker 4: knee and then it was lower leg and now it's ankle.
[54:49] Speaker 4: I don't know. The truth is in there somewhere, but
[54:51] Speaker 4: we don't have test results. We don't have anything official
[54:53] Speaker 4: from the team. So we still don't know. There's a
[54:55] Speaker 4: lot of uncertainty there, but we look at Mike Washington.
[55:01] Speaker 4: Why was he stuck in rounds 17 plus for so long?
[55:06] Speaker 4: There are others, Ray Davis, Marshawn Lloyd for a long
[55:11] Speaker 4: time until Josh Jacobs, like for a while. Yeah. Right.
[55:15] Speaker 4: A lot of stuff going on there as well. But,
[55:18] Speaker 4: You know, the Braylon Allen types, the backs, the Kalon
[55:24] Speaker 4: Blacks and whoever the other guy is, JJ.
[55:28] Speaker 2: Yeah, Jordan James.
[55:29] Speaker 4: Jordan James, yeah. That archetype of back in a backfield
[55:34] Speaker 4: where we would expect them because whether it be depth
[55:38] Speaker 4: behind them or coaching tendencies– We would expect that back
[55:43] Speaker 4: to fill kind of a lead back, at least 1A
[55:47] Speaker 4: type role if the starter went down. That's where a
[55:51] Speaker 4: lot of the upside comes from in 0RB, in late
[55:55] Speaker 4: round who we're targeting. So those are the guys that
[55:58] Speaker 4: I want to be adding to hero builds, to 0
[56:02] Speaker 4: running back builds, to builds that like... I don't know,
[56:06] Speaker 4: like modified hero running back is like a thing now
[56:09] Speaker 4: where it's like you take two running backs in the
[56:10] Speaker 4: first three rounds. I don't know, dude. We're just trying
[56:13] Speaker 4: to pigeonhole like this into labels, right? I know that's
[56:18] Speaker 4: a discussion on society, I think more than anything, but
[56:21] Speaker 4: like putting a label on everything anyway. But yeah, so
[56:26] Speaker 4: those are the types of players that I want to
[56:28] Speaker 4: be targeting as like an RB or three on a
[56:33] Speaker 4: roster and if i'm drafting zero running back i probably
[56:36] Speaker 4: want to have like a tajay spears type a woody
[56:39] Speaker 4: marks type somebody that is going to get me something
[56:42] Speaker 4: more than a zero because the variance associated with these
[56:46] Speaker 4: backs that we're talking about is like anywhere from a
[56:48] Speaker 4: zero to you know a workhorse running back right pending
[56:53] Speaker 4: injury stuff so i want to be kind of you
[56:56] Speaker 4: know if i'm attacking zero running back, hero running back,
[56:59] Speaker 4: modified hero running back, whatever the case may be, like
[57:02] Speaker 4: drafting two running backs in the first three rounds and
[57:04] Speaker 4: then not touching the position until rounds 12 plus, which
[57:08] Speaker 4: I think is the most accurate description of modified hero
[57:11] Speaker 4: running back there is. If I'm drafting like that, I
[57:14] Speaker 4: want to then take into account roster construction. Because if
[57:17] Speaker 4: I'm taking zero running back approach, hero running back approach,
[57:20] Speaker 4: you want to ensure that the rest of the positions
[57:23] Speaker 4: on your roster are lead. How are we doing that
[57:25] Speaker 4: in today's NFL? That means you must have one of
[57:29] Speaker 4: the top three, we'll say, if we want to extend
[57:32] Speaker 4: it to Colston Loveland, tight ends. You want to have
[57:35] Speaker 4: difference makers at the other positions. I want to have
[57:38] Speaker 4: Josh Allen, Colston Loveland in the rounds three and four.
[57:42] Speaker 4: I want to have top wide receivers stacked on this roster.
[57:46] Speaker 4: I want to have depth at wide receiver. The archetype
[57:50] Speaker 4: of wide receiver that I'm taking in the later rounds
[57:52] Speaker 4: is going to be more boom bust. It's going to
[57:55] Speaker 4: be a wider range of outcomes guy because I want
[57:57] Speaker 4: that ability to attack elite ceiling at the other positions
[58:02] Speaker 4: and let the injury variance at running back kind of
[58:04] Speaker 4: take over. So long again, I led with the one
[58:08] Speaker 4: word answer, but like I want I want to be
[58:11] Speaker 4: leaning into zero running back. I want to be leaning
[58:13] Speaker 4: into hero this year. I want to be doing these
[58:15] Speaker 4: things that have historical proven hit rates that are at
[58:20] Speaker 4: a frequency greater than what the field is utilizing.
[58:23] Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that you also bring up a good point.
[58:25] Speaker 2: Two things.
[58:26] Speaker 3: One is obviously the playoff versus cumulative formats, right? With
[58:30] Speaker 3: the zero RB. Again, to advance, you have to be
[58:33] Speaker 3: top two out of 12, right? Which is really not.
[58:37] Speaker 3: And this is another thing that I've been trying to
[58:38] Speaker 3: kind of talk through with folks on the show this
[58:41] Speaker 3: summer is like, I think there's this idea that to
[58:45] Speaker 3: advance your team has to be really, really perfect.
[58:47] Speaker 4: Right.
[58:48] Speaker 3: But it's more so that your team has to be
[58:50] Speaker 3: in a really good spot in the playoffs themselves, as
[58:53] Speaker 3: opposed to getting through to one in six chance, which
[58:56] Speaker 3: isn't like, you know, obviously it's a higher end outcome,
[58:59] Speaker 3: but it's not like super crazy.
[59:01] Speaker 2: You know, you don't have to have like every.
[59:04] Speaker 3: Right player through week 14 in order to get that,
[59:07] Speaker 3: that team advancing.
[59:08] Speaker 4: Right.
[59:09] Speaker 3: And so it's, your point here that alone also lends
[59:12] Speaker 3: itself a little bit more to the ability to do
[59:15] Speaker 3: zero rb because if you hit on one running back
[59:19] Speaker 3: let's say through through that point in time or or
[59:21] Speaker 3: you hit on one running back through the first like
[59:23] Speaker 3: 10 weeks and then those final four weeks right before
[59:26] Speaker 3: the playoffs start maybe you get that second or third
[59:29] Speaker 3: one because injuries pile up whatever the case may be
[59:31] Speaker 3: and you've got the momentum going into the playoffs but
[59:34] Speaker 3: maybe you barely sneak into the playoffs which is what
[59:36] Speaker 3: we've seen so many times anecdotally with a lot of
[59:39] Speaker 3: these best ball teams that then do really really well
[59:42] Speaker 3: right that that win or whatever and is this like
[59:45] Speaker 3: idea that your team is not totally, you didn't smash
[59:48] Speaker 3: weeks one through 14 because you don't have to, that's
[59:51] Speaker 3: not where you have to smash. You're trying to smash
[59:53] Speaker 3: in the playoffs and specifically in week 17. And so
[59:57] Speaker 3: with a zero RB type build or like a hero
[59:59] Speaker 3: RB type build, and you're just trying to like find
[1:00:01] Speaker 3: that RB too. I do think that, that it is
[1:00:04] Speaker 3: very important to shout out that like these playoff formats
[1:00:07] Speaker 3: are where that can happen in a more consistent way
[1:00:10] Speaker 3: because like, it is a one in six shot to
[1:00:13] Speaker 3: just get in there. And then once you're in there,
[1:00:14] Speaker 3: a lot of stuff can, can, you know, go a
[1:00:17] Speaker 3: certain way. So I think that's a really good point.
[1:00:19] Speaker 3: And the other thing I wanted to throw out there
[1:00:20] Speaker 3: is you make a great point about archetype drafting and
[1:00:24] Speaker 3: the way that people think, like when I go and
[1:00:26] Speaker 3: I draft, I think you kind of like people who
[1:00:28] Speaker 3: like have been playing fantasy football for a while, kind
[1:00:31] Speaker 3: of just do this inherently. But if you go running back,
[1:00:34] Speaker 3: running back, like if you're in the back half of
[1:00:35] Speaker 3: the first round and you get James Cook and then
[1:00:37] Speaker 3: you turn around and you get kenneth walker or something
[1:00:40] Speaker 3: right whatever you know it's good pairing which would be
[1:00:42] Speaker 3: great yeah which would be an awesome start i would
[1:00:44] Speaker 3: love it right and so if you have those two
[1:00:47] Speaker 3: running backs i'm no longer thinking about the tajay spears
[1:00:50] Speaker 3: types like i would otherwise right i'm thinking about the
[1:00:53] Speaker 3: the kaylon blacks the ray davis's well maybe not ray
[1:00:56] Speaker 3: davis with james cook necessarily but regardless you know you
[1:00:59] Speaker 3: get the idea so like i think that's another really
[1:01:01] Speaker 3: good point to drive home is that when you are
[1:01:03] Speaker 3: sort of constructing this lineup Don't just think about like
[1:01:06] Speaker 3: the floor running backs that you were noting, a Woody Marks,
[1:01:09] Speaker 3: who you know is going to get something, but probably
[1:01:10] Speaker 3: doesn't have like the most massive ceiling in the world. Or,
[1:01:13] Speaker 3: you know, some of these like early down, you know,
[1:01:17] Speaker 3: not big pass catching profile type backs like a Dobbins
[1:01:20] Speaker 3: or a Chris Rodriguez or whomever, who to me are
[1:01:23] Speaker 3: probably better in best ball than they are managed because
[1:01:25] Speaker 3: in a managed league is just going to be chaotic
[1:01:28] Speaker 3: and trying to predict when.
[1:01:28] Speaker 2: That production is going to come.
[1:01:29] Speaker 4: When the touchdowns happen.
[1:01:30] Speaker 2: Yeah, right, right.
[1:01:31] Speaker 3: And so like those players, though, I don't know, have
[1:01:34] Speaker 3: crazy great. Maybe there's some contingent upside.
[1:01:37] Speaker 4: Sure.
[1:01:37] Speaker 3: But even still, you have to think about what would
[1:01:39] Speaker 3: happen if that starter goes down. And I don't think
[1:01:41] Speaker 3: that there's that much of a difference in Delta between,
[1:01:43] Speaker 3: you know, spending up six extra rounds to get a
[1:01:46] Speaker 3: Chris Rodriguez for if an injury were to happen to
[1:01:49] Speaker 3: Bashal Tootin and the the backfield and maybe Rodriguez is
[1:01:52] Speaker 3: the best example. But the backfield then opens up completely
[1:01:55] Speaker 3: versus around 19 running back like Kalon Black or Jordan James,
[1:01:59] Speaker 3: you know, thinking about the one outcome that could happen
[1:02:02] Speaker 3: for one of those two backs to emerge of Christian
[1:02:04] Speaker 3: McCaffrey going down. I mean, if we assume that Tootin
[1:02:07] Speaker 3: and McCaffrey were both down, are we really sitting here
[1:02:10] Speaker 3: saying that we would confidently know that Chris Rodriguez is
[1:02:12] Speaker 3: a better fantasy asset than one of the two.
[1:02:14] Speaker 2: 49ers running backs?
[1:02:16] Speaker 3: You know, like, I don't think that we can confidently
[1:02:17] Speaker 3: say that we would go one way or another. So
[1:02:19] Speaker 3: you can get the discount and get those guys if
[1:02:21] Speaker 3: you're looking for just that injury out as opposed to
[1:02:24] Speaker 3: just getting some production.
[1:02:26] Speaker 4: Right.
[1:02:26] Speaker 2: Which is going the Chris Rodgers.
[1:02:27] Speaker 3: So you're paying that premium for some production, but you
[1:02:30] Speaker 3: don't need to pay that premium if you've already locked
[1:02:33] Speaker 3: down your supposed RB1, RB2 in the early rounds.
[1:02:36] Speaker 4: Right.
[1:02:37] Speaker 3: I think it's a really, really important thing to at
[1:02:39] Speaker 3: least get across because it's something that I think a
[1:02:42] Speaker 3: lot of people don't actively think about, even though if
[1:02:45] Speaker 3: they do it kind of inherently and internally as they're drafting.
[1:02:48] Speaker 4: There's one player I think that highlights how the field
[1:02:50] Speaker 4: is getting that so wrong throughout this season running back wise.
[1:02:54] Speaker 4: And that's Tank Bigsby. So like he started in the 17th,
[1:02:58] Speaker 4: 18th round. Right. Yeah. And then like Saquon started missing
[1:03:02] Speaker 4: some time and then reports happen that like they're going
[1:03:04] Speaker 4: to try and get Tank Bigsby like a weekly workload
[1:03:07] Speaker 4: and his ADP shot up to like 13th, 14th round.
[1:03:11] Speaker 4: It's like. in a best ball setting that the five
[1:03:14] Speaker 4: to seven touches that he's going to get, even like
[1:03:16] Speaker 4: if he is spelling Saquon means absolutely nothing to our roster.
[1:03:20] Speaker 4: He is, his value is as a pure handcuff. So like,
[1:03:23] Speaker 4: why was he moving up into the 13th, 14th round?
[1:03:26] Speaker 4: He shouldn't have been. So I had a ton of
[1:03:29] Speaker 4: Tank Bigsby like early on in the draft cycle. And
[1:03:31] Speaker 4: then his ADP kind of skyrocketed a little bit because
[1:03:36] Speaker 4: of all the uncertainty around Saquon or, you know, they
[1:03:38] Speaker 4: have Sean Mannion coming in. Is he going to look
[1:03:40] Speaker 4: to spell Saquon a little bit more? And now it's like, okay,
[1:03:43] Speaker 4: now Saquon's back at practice and he's the workhorse. And
[1:03:45] Speaker 4: now Tank Bigsby is dropping again. It's like his use
[1:03:49] Speaker 4: to us in a best ball setting never changed.
[1:03:53] Speaker 1: Exactly.
[1:03:53] Speaker 4: We should have been drafting him just as that elite
[1:03:55] Speaker 4: handcuff guy.
[1:03:56] Speaker 2: Right, right. Yeah, it makes a ton of sense. It
[1:03:59] Speaker 2: was a really good example.
[1:04:00] Speaker 3: I want to ask you what you think, you kind
[1:04:02] Speaker 3: of hinted at, I mean, I guess you could technically
[1:04:04] Speaker 3: throw what we just talked about into this bucket, but
[1:04:07] Speaker 3: what you think best ball drafters get wrong.
[1:04:10] Speaker 4: The biggest thing that I have seen that the best
[1:04:12] Speaker 4: ball community is still getting wrong is drafting statically throughout
[1:04:18] Speaker 4: the entirety of the draft window. Again, we've used this
[1:04:24] Speaker 4: buzzword a lot today in our discussion of variance. If
[1:04:28] Speaker 4: we think about when the contests that we're drafting open
[1:04:32] Speaker 4: versus when they close, there's a sliding scale of variance
[1:04:36] Speaker 4: within that structure as well. And it's this time information
[1:04:40] Speaker 4: variance equation. So when contests kick off in May and
[1:04:46] Speaker 4: we have four months of off season until the regular
[1:04:49] Speaker 4: season starts, and then we have 17 weeks of the
[1:04:52] Speaker 4: regular season, that level of variance is so much higher
[1:04:57] Speaker 4: than if you're drafting in early September. The issue that
[1:05:01] Speaker 4: I see generally speaking from the field is they're drafting
[1:05:05] Speaker 4: in may as they would in september and that is
[1:05:07] Speaker 4: one of the biggest mistakes i think that we can
[1:05:09] Speaker 4: make so back to the zero running back discussion i
[1:05:14] Speaker 4: could tell very very early that the field was like
[1:05:17] Speaker 4: completely shying away from zero running back and this was
[1:05:20] Speaker 4: back to last year as well right based off the
[1:05:23] Speaker 4: recent injury trends that we noted so what is zero
[1:05:28] Speaker 4: running back it's a highly variant way of drafting So
[1:05:32] Speaker 4: where would I want to institute that at the highest
[1:05:36] Speaker 4: degree when the variance is greatest? So that is right
[1:05:39] Speaker 4: when these contests kicked off. So like a massive chunk
[1:05:43] Speaker 4: of my zero running back rosters in my portfolio were
[1:05:46] Speaker 4: drafted in the first month of the off season because
[1:05:49] Speaker 4: that is where the variance was highest. There's still four
[1:05:52] Speaker 4: months for somebody to get injured before the season even starts.
[1:05:55] Speaker 3: Yeah.
[1:05:55] Speaker 4: And then there's the 17 weeks of the regular season
[1:05:58] Speaker 4: as well. Yeah. bringing that discussion like full circle, like
[1:06:04] Speaker 4: the field is drafting, you know, broad, again, blanket statement alert.
[1:06:08] Speaker 4: The field is drafting in May as they would in September.
[1:06:12] Speaker 4: And I think that's a massive mistake. Yeah.
[1:06:14] Speaker 3: That's a very good point about, um, especially zero RB
[1:06:18] Speaker 3: and just going back to the discussion we just had, but, um,
[1:06:20] Speaker 3: there's stuff that can go down as the summer goes on.
[1:06:23] Speaker 3: I think that the, there could be pushback of, and
[1:06:27] Speaker 3: I'm curious what you would think about this. I'm just
[1:06:29] Speaker 3: trying to think of like a counter, you know, just
[1:06:31] Speaker 3: to see what, but like would be, Hey, it's may
[1:06:35] Speaker 3: and you're drafting the zero RB team.
[1:06:37] Speaker 2: So that means that you're.
[1:06:38] Speaker 3: Relying on running backs that we, uh, don't know what
[1:06:41] Speaker 3: their roles might be, even the backups, right? So I
[1:06:45] Speaker 3: would assume that the response to that, this is a
[1:06:48] Speaker 3: devil's advocate thing. This is not me necessarily believing that, right?
[1:06:53] Speaker 3: My stance would be, and I want to hear if
[1:06:56] Speaker 3: you agree, is that there's inherent variance to that aspect
[1:07:02] Speaker 3: of things.
[1:07:02] Speaker 2: Like, like who steps up?
[1:07:03] Speaker 3: Like right now we've been talking about the San Francisco backups, right?
[1:07:06] Speaker 3: Like we don't even know how that would, would play out,
[1:07:09] Speaker 3: but that doesn't mean that you can't find that guy
[1:07:11] Speaker 3: in may when you're drafting and you're getting him probably
[1:07:15] Speaker 3: for a price that is lower anyway, because we don't
[1:07:19] Speaker 3: have that information.
[1:07:20] Speaker 2: Is that sort of how you would answer that?
[1:07:23] Speaker 4: And I have it within that zero RB portfolio. Like
[1:07:27] Speaker 4: I had, probably 50-50 exposure to a San Francisco backup
[1:07:33] Speaker 4: if they were on a roster. I probably had 50-50
[1:07:35] Speaker 4: exposure to both Jordan James and Kalen Black. They were
[1:07:38] Speaker 4: the two guys most likely to step into that role.
[1:07:41] Speaker 4: I had no idea. And we still really don't have
[1:07:45] Speaker 4: that much of an idea. It looked like it was
[1:07:48] Speaker 4: Jordan James before he got hurt. And now it looks
[1:07:50] Speaker 4: like it's Kalen Black because he's been on the field.
[1:07:53] Speaker 4: But we really don't know still. So kind of like
[1:07:56] Speaker 4: just saying... If I'm drafting 100 rosters in May, June timeframe,
[1:08:04] Speaker 4: I would probably want 40% of those. And this is
[1:08:09] Speaker 4: just how I've handled it. I probably want like 40%
[1:08:12] Speaker 4: of those rosters to be like zero running back. And
[1:08:15] Speaker 4: I was probably targeting San Francisco backup on 25% of
[1:08:21] Speaker 4: those rosters. So again, 100 roster portfolio, 40% of them
[1:08:26] Speaker 4: being zero running back. a quarter of those being San
[1:08:30] Speaker 4: Francisco backfield backup. I probably have like five Kalen Black
[1:08:35] Speaker 4: and five Jordan James shares in that portfolio. And again,
[1:08:38] Speaker 4: this is like, I don't know what my actual numbers are,
[1:08:40] Speaker 4: but like from a mindset standpoint, that's kind of how
[1:08:43] Speaker 4: I'm looking to attack it. Yeah.
[1:08:45] Speaker 2: Makes a ton of sense.
[1:08:46] Speaker 3: All right, we've covered a lot. We're not even going
[1:08:48] Speaker 3: to get to everything that we were potentially going to cover.
[1:08:51] Speaker 3: So I'll leave it at this. Give me a bold take.
[1:08:55] Speaker 3: Put your crazy variance hat on. Give me a bold
[1:08:59] Speaker 3: take for this.
[1:09:00] Speaker 2: 2026 season.
[1:09:01] Speaker 4: Michael Mayer will win somebody a tournament.
[1:09:04] Speaker 2: I love that. I love that because I've been clicking
[1:09:06] Speaker 2: his name a lot at the end of drafts.
[1:09:09] Speaker 4: Dude, I put that out in the Twitter sphere in
[1:09:11] Speaker 4: May and got all the pushback. I think my words
[1:09:14] Speaker 4: exactly was Michael Mayer probably carries the highest upside of
[1:09:18] Speaker 4: any round 20 pick. And everyone was like, no, dude.
[1:09:22] Speaker 4: But if you think about it and like we know
[1:09:25] Speaker 4: that the Clint Kubiak system is going to be heavy
[1:09:30] Speaker 4: personnel heavy, as in they're going to they're not going
[1:09:32] Speaker 4: to utilize a lot of 11 personnel. And then you
[1:09:34] Speaker 4: look at the state of their wide receiver core. It's
[1:09:36] Speaker 4: like he's going to be on the field already. Then
[1:09:39] Speaker 4: what happens with this 32 out of 32 ranked wide
[1:09:43] Speaker 4: receiver core? If like something happens here. to somebody that
[1:09:48] Speaker 4: we don't even want to consider being like having an injury,
[1:09:51] Speaker 4: but like, what if something happens, you know, have him
[1:09:55] Speaker 4: on the depth chart? What if something happens to actually GT? Oh, right.
[1:09:59] Speaker 4: Like we're here. There's a lot of upside there with
[1:10:02] Speaker 4: Michael Mayer that I think people are brushing off. Yeah.
[1:10:06] Speaker 3: I completely, I mean, look, I, I, I think we're
[1:10:09] Speaker 3: going to get usability out of him regardless of anything happening.
[1:10:12] Speaker 2: Period.
[1:10:13] Speaker 4: Yeah.
[1:10:13] Speaker 3: Like in that offense, like you said, we're going to
[1:10:14] Speaker 3: see enough 12, in that offense, you know, with the
[1:10:17] Speaker 3: lack of, of pass catching talent and then yeah, upsides there,
[1:10:22] Speaker 3: if something were to happen to a lot of these guys,
[1:10:24] Speaker 3: obviously specifically a Brock Bowers.
[1:10:26] Speaker 2: So yeah, man, that's a, that's a, that's a great take.
[1:10:29] Speaker 2: I love it. This was a great conversation.
[1:10:31] Speaker 3: I love being able to hear, you know, your, your
[1:10:34] Speaker 3: brain spew some game theory knowledge. Um, and I, I
[1:10:37] Speaker 3: know that others will love it too. So let everyone
[1:10:39] Speaker 3: know where they can find you and what, what you'll
[1:10:41] Speaker 3: be working on this season.
[1:10:42] Speaker 4: Yeah, man, on X or the Twitter sphere at Hilo
[1:10:46] Speaker 4: FF H I L O W F F in season.
[1:10:50] Speaker 4: I shift promptly to DFS from the best ball streets.
[1:10:54] Speaker 4: Most of my work is going to be found over
[1:10:56] Speaker 4: at one week season.com. And just this season started working
[1:11:02] Speaker 4: with stat rankings.com. If you're looking for a stat provider,
[1:11:05] Speaker 4: highly recommend going and checking that out. Uh, if you
[1:11:09] Speaker 4: want to go check it out again, this is a
[1:11:11] Speaker 4: service that was just launched last year. Um, I was
[1:11:14] Speaker 4: brought on to kind of help make it like the
[1:11:16] Speaker 4: best stat provider service in the industry. And that's my goal.
[1:11:20] Speaker 4: So if you have any like recommendations, hit me up. Uh,
[1:11:23] Speaker 4: and if you want to give it a try, use
[1:11:24] Speaker 4: code O W S Oscar whiskey, Sierra, that'll get you 20%
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[1:11:32] Speaker 2: Awesome.
[1:11:32] Speaker 4: Awesome.
[1:11:32] Speaker 3: I love it. As always, everyone, make sure you check
[1:11:35] Speaker 3: out lateround.com. The draft guide's out. And if you need
[1:11:37] Speaker 3: that for your season-long drafts upcoming. Otherwise, everyone, thanks for
[1:11:42] Speaker 3: tuning in.

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