# Becoming a Best Ball Bro: A Unique Way to Stack?

An episode of [The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1224965828), 22 Jul 2026, 1 h 17 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0a233618-d694-4c81-a139-b34e00f98fb1/0f1a289b-5352-4a85-bc3e-b48f000df9d6/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=5747cc82-33a9-497c-8353-b34e00f98fbe

JJ tells Rich which early-round players he's drafted most often this summer before being joined by Tod Burros to talk all things best ball. Tod shares his favorite ways to build unique playoff teams, explains how he thinks about player exposure, and discusses plenty more strategy along the way. ---------- Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and sign up with promo code LATEROUND. Enter a lineup in the $20 million Best Ball contest for $25 and get a bonus ticket for a second entry — two shots at the title. Draft One, Get One, only on DraftKings. The Crown Is Yours. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Help is available for problem gambling. Call (888) 789-7777 or visit ccpg.org (CT). 18+ in most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply. Void where prohibited. 1 per customer. Must enter a lineup into the NFL Best Ball $20M Headliner Contest. $25 entry fee. Bonus issued as 1 ticket to NFL Best Ball $20M Headliner Contest. Ticket reward is site credit valid for use only on NFL Best Ball $20M Headliner Contest. Ticket reward is single-use and expires at contest lock on 9/9/26. See terms at https://www.draftkings.com/promotions. Ends 9/9/26 at contest lock. Sponsored by DraftKings. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: JJ, good to see you after a week off. How
[0:03] Speaker 1: was the vacation, man?
[0:05] Speaker 2: It was great, man, It was great to hang out
[0:06] Speaker 2: with the family. Everything, though, unraveled when.
[0:09] Speaker 3: I got home.
[0:10] Speaker 2: Our upstairs air conditioner broke, and so we've been without
[0:14] Speaker 2: that for a few days now, and that's where.
[0:17] Speaker 3: My office is at.
[0:18] Speaker 2: So my upstairs it's been like in the eighties high
[0:22] Speaker 2: eighties at times, and I've tried to record some shows
[0:25] Speaker 2: and get stuff done and it has not been easy
[0:27] Speaker 2: at all. But I got to say, experiencing that heat
[0:30] Speaker 2: inside the house still somehow better than when I drafted
[0:34] Speaker 2: Pukinakua and DeVante Adams and someone drafted naked Matthew Stafford
[0:38] Speaker 2: at the end of the fifth round last week. I'm JJ,
[0:40] Speaker 2: And over the last couple of years, I've been doing
[0:43] Speaker 2: everything I can to be a best ball broke, and
[0:45] Speaker 2: last season things finally fell into place.
[0:48] Speaker 3: I got fortieth in the.
[0:49] Speaker 2: DraftKings MILLI Contest, taking home twenty thousand dollars. Maybe I
[0:53] Speaker 2: became a best ballpro, but I'm still looking to learn
[0:56] Speaker 2: more about this game, and I still want others.
[0:59] Speaker 3: To come on this ride with me. So even if
[1:01] Speaker 3: you consider me a best ball bro This could be
[1:03] Speaker 3: your year.
[1:04] Speaker 2: This could be the year that you officially become a
[1:07] Speaker 2: best ball bro.
[1:25] Speaker 3: This episode is sponsored by DraftKings.
[1:27] Speaker 2: We've partnered up with DraftKings again this year for Best
[1:29] Speaker 2: Ball and we've got to can't miss offer on their
[1:31] Speaker 2: biggest best Ball contest ever, twenty million dollars in total prizes.
[1:35] Speaker 2: It's Draft one, get one, draft your team once, no
[1:39] Speaker 2: weekly lineup management, and your top scorers start automatically each
[1:42] Speaker 2: week all season long. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app
[1:46] Speaker 2: and sign up with promo code Late Round.
[1:49] Speaker 3: Enter a lineup in.
[1:50] Speaker 2: The twenty million dollars Best Ball Contest for twenty five
[1:52] Speaker 2: dollars and get a bonus ticket for a second entry
[1:55] Speaker 2: two shots at the title.
[1:57] Speaker 3: Draft one get one only on Draft Kings. The crown
[2:01] Speaker 3: is yours.
[2:04] Speaker 2: Welcome into another episode of becoming a Best ball Bro.
[2:07] Speaker 2: I'm JJ Zachares and joined as always by Rich Ryan Rich.
[2:11] Speaker 3: What's going on, Buddy.
[2:12] Speaker 4: Doing great man? The football is behind us, in the
[2:15] Speaker 4: football is ahead of us. I fired up three consecutive
[2:21] Speaker 4: fast drafts last night after my work was finished, so
[2:24] Speaker 4: I am full steam ahead for best ball and football season.
[2:29] Speaker 3: Yeah, I got some drafts in on vacation, which was great.
[2:31] Speaker 2: When the kids went to bed, I was able to,
[2:34] Speaker 2: you know, just hang out in the living room.
[2:36] Speaker 3: It's one of the best times.
[2:37] Speaker 2: Like the kids are settled, you had a long fun day,
[2:40] Speaker 2: and you just bust open the laptop and you're sitting
[2:43] Speaker 2: there with your significant other and you know, they're doing
[2:45] Speaker 2: their thing and I'm doing my thing, and I'm just
[2:49] Speaker 2: cranking out some drafts. So I am officially over the
[2:52] Speaker 2: eighty mark with my milli drafts so far, I have
[2:56] Speaker 2: to say. So, I'm going to talk about some exposures
[2:58] Speaker 2: here in a second of some of the higher drafted
[3:01] Speaker 2: players in terms of sorry high eighty p players, I
[3:04] Speaker 2: should say they're obviously higher drafted if I'm going to
[3:06] Speaker 2: talk about the higher exposed players that I've that I've drafted.
[3:09] Speaker 3: The thing is in these drafts, these eighty plus drafts,
[3:13] Speaker 3: now I've done a couple more than eighty.
[3:15] Speaker 2: I have gotten the one ten in fourteen of them.
[3:18] Speaker 2: What and it is the most tilting.
[3:21] Speaker 3: I hit eighty.
[3:22] Speaker 2: And I put all my notes for today's show for
[3:24] Speaker 2: the eighty drafts that I've done, and then I did
[3:26] Speaker 2: two more since since I put the show sheet together
[3:29] Speaker 2: and in both of those drafts, I drew.
[3:30] Speaker 3: The one ten.
[3:31] Speaker 2: So I have now gotten the one ten and what
[3:34] Speaker 2: seventeen percent if you do the eighty two seventeen percent
[3:37] Speaker 2: of my drafts, I've gotten the one oh one three times.
[3:39] Speaker 2: And it is beyond frustrating, beyond tilting. So if you
[3:43] Speaker 2: guys feel that pain, I feel it too. I'm not
[3:45] Speaker 2: getting nearly enough Jumior Gibbs. And you can't do anything
[3:47] Speaker 2: about it, right, Like I'm sitting here and I'm like
[3:50] Speaker 2: I message Kitchen and Godoula about it. In Kitchen's like
[3:53] Speaker 2: you gotta log out, log back in, you know, like
[3:55] Speaker 2: like just just change change something right, right, change things
[4:00] Speaker 2: up a little bit, and maybe that will help. But
[4:03] Speaker 2: what I do want to do really quick. We have
[4:04] Speaker 2: a great guest on today's show. There's a long conversation.
[4:08] Speaker 2: I bring up the air conditioner thing multiple times in
[4:11] Speaker 2: that conversation because actually it was.
[4:12] Speaker 3: Even warmer when I recorded that with our guests.
[4:15] Speaker 2: So I by the end of the like fifty some
[4:18] Speaker 2: minutes that we that we were talking, I'm literally sweating
[4:21] Speaker 2: on the show. So just just be prepared. If you're
[4:23] Speaker 2: watching on YouTube, it gets pretty bad. And like my
[4:26] Speaker 2: face is red.
[4:26] Speaker 3: You know, it's just not a good scene at all.
[4:30] Speaker 2: What I wanted to do is, since I am at
[4:32] Speaker 2: that eighty mark, I'm gonna go one by one through
[4:35] Speaker 2: about eight players, eight or nine players who I am
[4:39] Speaker 2: highest exposed to based on early ADP players. So I'm
[4:43] Speaker 2: not talking like, you know, Jonah Coleman is someone that
[4:46] Speaker 2: I'm highest on right now that I have like thirty
[4:48] Speaker 2: percent exposure to.
[4:50] Speaker 3: I actually talk about.
[4:51] Speaker 2: Coleman with our guests at the end of the conversation,
[4:54] Speaker 2: so you guys can dig into that. We kind of
[4:56] Speaker 2: just straight away and just went off on a tangent.
[4:58] Speaker 2: But I think people, you know, hopefully we'll dig that.
[5:00] Speaker 2: But I'm only talking about like top six or seven
[5:03] Speaker 2: rounds essentially here, top six rounds mostly. So with that
[5:06] Speaker 2: being said, I'm gonna kick things off and first say
[5:08] Speaker 2: that the only player out of these, out of this
[5:11] Speaker 2: group that's been over twenty percent is the one that
[5:13] Speaker 2: I'm gonna bring up first, and that is mister Luther Burden.
[5:18] Speaker 3: I kind of got.
[5:18] Speaker 2: Burden crazy one point in June and was just drafting
[5:22] Speaker 2: them basically every time I was in the mid to
[5:24] Speaker 2: late fourth round. I've been trying to get you know,
[5:26] Speaker 2: even out the exposure a little bit more with Burden,
[5:29] Speaker 2: I still think that there's a chance that Burden is
[5:31] Speaker 2: a slight camp riser. Like I still think there's at
[5:34] Speaker 2: least some chance that we get a lot of hype
[5:37] Speaker 2: and steam behind him. And because right now you're still
[5:40] Speaker 2: finding drafts where he will slip into the beginning of
[5:43] Speaker 2: the fifth round over on draftings, and so I think
[5:45] Speaker 2: that there's room for him to grow and just kind
[5:47] Speaker 2: of like jump in front of that giant tier of
[5:51] Speaker 2: wide receivers, whether it be Jyalen Wattle, who I also like,
[5:54] Speaker 2: you know, Terry McLaurin, t mac Garrett Wilson, like all
[5:58] Speaker 2: of those players. I think there's a chance that he
[6:00] Speaker 2: has that like Zay Flowers effect that we've seen with
[6:03] Speaker 2: Zay where Zay kind of escaped from that group and
[6:05] Speaker 2: a Mecca Buka has kind of escaped from that group
[6:08] Speaker 2: to some degree as well. I think that there's a
[6:10] Speaker 2: chance of that with Luthor Burden, because what if Romadunze
[6:13] Speaker 2: comes out, he doesn't look one hundred percent you know,
[6:15] Speaker 2: there's obviously already been steamed from Ben Johnson saying that
[6:18] Speaker 2: he's buying Luther burdens stock, and so I think that
[6:21] Speaker 2: there's still some chance that his price.
[6:22] Speaker 3: Rises a bit.
[6:24] Speaker 2: I don't think it's going to get that much lower
[6:26] Speaker 2: more than likely, but yeah, I'm in on Burden this year.
[6:29] Speaker 3: You know, I've seen a lot.
[6:30] Speaker 2: Of people say that they're out, that they don't understand
[6:33] Speaker 2: this price point. And you know, if you look at
[6:35] Speaker 2: rookie season point per game marks, it's very rare for
[6:38] Speaker 2: a player to really break out after such a low
[6:41] Speaker 2: PPR point per game mark as Burden had. But my
[6:44] Speaker 2: counter to that is, well, it's also rare to find
[6:46] Speaker 2: a player who had that low of a point per
[6:47] Speaker 2: game mark and such great per route run efficiency. You know,
[6:51] Speaker 2: there's a lot more to a profile than just looking
[6:54] Speaker 2: at one singular metric and just crossing that dude off
[6:57] Speaker 2: your list, because we haven't seen that historically. Now, if
[7:00] Speaker 2: there are six, seven, eight metrics that you know are
[7:03] Speaker 2: relatively predictive and all of them just say hey, don't
[7:06] Speaker 2: draft this guy, you know, that's one of the reasons
[7:07] Speaker 2: why I am a little bit scared of like a
[7:09] Speaker 2: DJ Moore. Let's say, even though I understand the fit
[7:11] Speaker 2: in real life, then I think, yeah, you can you
[7:13] Speaker 2: can make that claim, and it's just it's more so
[7:16] Speaker 2: for me. I don't think the Luther Burden stuff is
[7:18] Speaker 2: simply all hype, you know, like this isn't just like
[7:21] Speaker 2: a fantasy football industry fabrication of what's going on. The
[7:25] Speaker 2: freaking head coach of the team who hand picked him,
[7:27] Speaker 2: who drafted him, right, is saying that he's buying Luther
[7:31] Speaker 2: Burden stock. You can almost copy and paste what Ben
[7:34] Speaker 2: Johnson was doing in Detroit from a personnel standpoint and
[7:38] Speaker 2: kind of see what he's trying to do in Chicago
[7:42] Speaker 2: with the playmakers that he has as well, and we
[7:44] Speaker 2: know that easier kind of lower aid dot but also
[7:48] Speaker 2: inside out role that will scheme guys is the Amana
[7:52] Speaker 2: Saint Brown role, right, and that's the role that Luthor
[7:54] Speaker 2: Burden is more than likely going to play in this offense.
[7:57] Speaker 2: So I'm in on Burden this year. I'm at twenty
[7:59] Speaker 2: five percent and a little bit lower because I did
[8:01] Speaker 2: two more drafts and I did not draft Burden, So
[8:04] Speaker 2: let's just say twenty three percent or something.
[8:06] Speaker 3: But I am high on Burden this year.
[8:07] Speaker 2: And you know, if you're listening to this, if you
[8:09] Speaker 2: don't want to take that on, fine, if you want
[8:10] Speaker 2: to be a little bit even, fine, but I would
[8:12] Speaker 2: still recommend being over that eight percent mark and being
[8:15] Speaker 2: overweight on Burden versus the market.
[8:17] Speaker 4: Yeah, if it was just hype, then we wouldn't see
[8:19] Speaker 4: Colson Loveland and Roma Dunzai going as high as they
[8:22] Speaker 4: were as well.
[8:23] Speaker 1: People want pieces of this offense.
[8:26] Speaker 3: Yeah.
[8:26] Speaker 2: Something else, something else I want to throw out there too,
[8:29] Speaker 2: is that I see a lot of like, you know, oh,
[8:31] Speaker 2: if you're high on Parker Washington, and that means that
[8:33] Speaker 2: you have to hate Brian Thomas. You know, like if
[8:36] Speaker 2: you like Luther Burden, then you have to hate no,
[8:38] Speaker 2: because in an individual draft, you're making a bet on
[8:41] Speaker 2: that player in that draft. To me, every draft is
[8:44] Speaker 2: like an outcome for a particular season and how that
[8:47] Speaker 2: would go down. You know, there are hundreds and hundreds
[8:50] Speaker 2: of outcomes in ways that things can go in a
[8:52] Speaker 2: given year. Right, But in your draft, in that twelve
[8:55] Speaker 2: team draft that you're when you're picking those twenty players,
[8:59] Speaker 2: you're saying yourself, this is the way this is going
[9:02] Speaker 2: to go down in this season's iteration. Right, But a
[9:05] Speaker 2: brand new draft means, hey, I'll take Colston Lovelin at
[9:08] Speaker 2: the end of round four if he falls or middle
[9:10] Speaker 2: round four and I'm not getting Luther Burden in that case,
[9:13] Speaker 2: which in that case for that particular lineup, Yeah, I
[9:16] Speaker 2: hope the breakout doesn't.
[9:17] Speaker 3: Happen for Luther Burden for that lineup.
[9:19] Speaker 1: You know.
[9:19] Speaker 2: I think it just goes to like the more of
[9:21] Speaker 2: the probabilistic thinking and not handcuffing yourself to a take
[9:25] Speaker 2: and just saying like this has to happen in order
[9:27] Speaker 2: for you to like this guy. If that were the case,
[9:29] Speaker 2: then you would never buy into anything ambiguous in it
[9:31] Speaker 2: from a draft board perspective, you know, And it's just
[9:33] Speaker 2: a silly thing to do.
[9:34] Speaker 4: Yeah, you nail this on the Marcuts Square episode that
[9:37] Speaker 4: released on Tuesday with regards to the Jags and Bears receivers,
[9:40] Speaker 4: where if you're just looking at a model's output and
[9:42] Speaker 4: MEETA and outcomes, of course things are muddled and gray,
[9:45] Speaker 4: but the contingent upside for all four of these guys
[9:48] Speaker 4: is is pretty enticing.
[9:51] Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, it's it's really enticing.
[9:53] Speaker 2: Next guy I'll go to, I did draft him in
[9:54] Speaker 2: one of the two drafts that I just did, Zay Flowers.
[9:56] Speaker 2: So technically Zay Flowers is probably at the twenty percent
[9:59] Speaker 2: mark at this point.
[10:00] Speaker 3: I wasn't as in on Za last year. He was
[10:02] Speaker 3: more of a fade for me.
[10:03] Speaker 2: He didn't have that great of a year, all things
[10:05] Speaker 2: considered from a fantasy production standpoint, because the Ravens, you know,
[10:08] Speaker 2: lose Lamar. Lamar wasn't that even that great when he
[10:11] Speaker 2: came back and they were a run heavy offense, and Zay,
[10:14] Speaker 2: you know, he had that that final game where.
[10:17] Speaker 3: He boosted his end of season numbers quite a bit.
[10:20] Speaker 2: And I think that we're doing ourselves a disservice a
[10:22] Speaker 2: little bit with wide receiver in particular if we cite
[10:25] Speaker 2: end of season finish with these guys when we know
[10:28] Speaker 2: that it's incredibly flat. If you say that Zay Flowers
[10:31] Speaker 2: finishes the wide receiver twelve and he's you know, ten
[10:34] Speaker 2: spots eleven spots from Puka and JSN from last year,
[10:38] Speaker 2: and then you look at the wide receiver twenty one
[10:41] Speaker 2: or twenty two, who would be ten spots away from Zay.
[10:44] Speaker 3: The wide receiver twenty two to Zay is so so
[10:48] Speaker 3: much smaller, and there's almost no difference in no delta
[10:51] Speaker 3: compared to that difference between you know, one of the
[10:53] Speaker 3: elite guys to say, so, like, I think that when
[10:55] Speaker 3: we speak like that, like we're human, so we think
[10:58] Speaker 3: in more of a linear nature, in a linear way,
[11:00] Speaker 3: but it's really not that way at all. Like last year,
[11:02] Speaker 3: a wide receiver.
[11:03] Speaker 2: They were like eight to ten guys that were really
[11:05] Speaker 2: good and everyone else was basically the same, you know,
[11:07] Speaker 2: which is what the death of the wide Receiver two
[11:09] Speaker 2: was all about at the beginning of the off season
[11:11] Speaker 2: in the podcast feed. But that being said, I'm bullish
[11:13] Speaker 2: that this offense might be a little bit more pass
[11:15] Speaker 2: heavy with Lamar being healthier, a new offensive coordinator, and
[11:18] Speaker 2: you know, it's the same logic that I used against
[11:21] Speaker 2: z to a degree last year, where you know, he's
[11:23] Speaker 2: not used in the red zone very frequently, he's not
[11:25] Speaker 2: using the end zone very frequently, but you do lose
[11:28] Speaker 2: Isaiah likely, you know, a piece that that you could
[11:30] Speaker 2: hypothetically say is you know, a threat down there, even
[11:34] Speaker 2: though maybe the numbers aren't as strong and like not
[11:37] Speaker 2: that big.
[11:37] Speaker 3: Of a deal. But he's also he also just put together.
[11:40] Speaker 2: An incredible season Zay Flowers did, and if you look
[11:42] Speaker 2: at you know, the per route run stuff year over year,
[11:47] Speaker 2: it's something that that that stuff is going to be
[11:49] Speaker 2: a lot stickier for Zay than it is than it
[11:51] Speaker 2: has been in other seasons, just because it was so
[11:53] Speaker 2: good last year. And then you look at his market
[11:55] Speaker 2: score comps and it's really hard to not get really excited,
[11:57] Speaker 2: Like cause his point per game average with the market
[12:00] Speaker 2: score comps, which is the episode that I did on Tuesday,
[12:03] Speaker 2: but his point per game average is like fifteen and
[12:04] Speaker 2: a half PPR points per game. I mean, he's still
[12:06] Speaker 2: getting comps of like JSN from last year, and it's
[12:10] Speaker 2: a very intriguing and fun profile. I've taken him at
[12:13] Speaker 2: the beginning towards the beginning of the third round at
[12:15] Speaker 2: times just to get a little bit of a differentiated lineup,
[12:17] Speaker 2: but when he falls the late third, I'm basically getting him.
[12:19] Speaker 3: All the time.
[12:19] Speaker 2: And like I said, I've gotten the one ten so
[12:22] Speaker 2: freaking frequently that I've just gotten.
[12:25] Speaker 3: A lot of a flowers as a result of that too.
[12:27] Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm looking.
[12:28] Speaker 4: I've pulled up my ADP data and he's right there
[12:30] Speaker 4: sitting at the end of the third So it correlates
[12:33] Speaker 4: with with where you're drafting. I pulled up last year
[12:36] Speaker 4: as well as curious where Zey finished in adp last
[12:39] Speaker 4: year in Best Ball and it was in the sixth round.
[12:42] Speaker 4: So to see him jump up from the sixth round
[12:44] Speaker 4: to the third round, he did it. He is coming
[12:46] Speaker 4: off his best season obviously twelve hundred yards, but like
[12:49] Speaker 4: you said, so much of that boosted by yeah game
[12:52] Speaker 4: where he goes spopular.
[12:54] Speaker 2: Yeah, that final game, that first game he went nuclear
[12:56] Speaker 2: as well, like he really like if you had Zay,
[12:58] Speaker 2: because I still had za I had him as a
[13:00] Speaker 2: fade last year, but I still had him in some
[13:02] Speaker 2: leagues and it wasn't like the most fun experience.
[13:05] Speaker 1: It was not.
[13:06] Speaker 3: It really was right right and so. But but I
[13:09] Speaker 3: do think it'll be smoother this year.
[13:11] Speaker 4: But yeah, at costs this is it's harder to see
[13:16] Speaker 4: him go higher than this. But to your point of this,
[13:19] Speaker 4: Ravens offense any interesting mystery box in and of itself
[13:24] Speaker 4: with the new coaching stuff.
[13:25] Speaker 2: There, So yeah, I should throw out there too. I
[13:27] Speaker 2: have fifteen percent Lamar Jackson, he's my highest. Him and
[13:31] Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts both at fifteen percent. I'll go a little
[13:33] Speaker 2: bit quicker through this, but they are my highest roster
[13:36] Speaker 2: quarterbacks right now. I just it goes back to everything
[13:40] Speaker 2: we've talked about about quarterback with guests, you know, in
[13:43] Speaker 2: our intros before the guest.
[13:44] Speaker 3: It's just this idea that.
[13:46] Speaker 2: I have a very hard time knowing that these guys
[13:48] Speaker 2: are going in the lake, like Lamar will slip to
[13:50] Speaker 2: the sixth sometimes, and I have a hard time knowing
[13:53] Speaker 2: that those guys will be going in to six, you know,
[13:55] Speaker 2: fifth to seventh round, when in the ninth round, you're
[13:58] Speaker 2: going to be reaching for an inferior player, an inferior quarterback,
[14:02] Speaker 2: when we know these guys can break Fantasy football. Now
[14:04] Speaker 2: that being said, quarterback, and I talk about this with
[14:07] Speaker 2: our guest today, but quarterback doesn't have the best advanced
[14:09] Speaker 2: rates even when they have a nuclear season, So I.
[14:12] Speaker 3: Think that is important.
[14:13] Speaker 2: But I just love the flexibility that those like round
[14:16] Speaker 2: five to seven quarterbacks give you in these drafts. You're
[14:19] Speaker 2: not feeling forced, you can let value drop. You know,
[14:21] Speaker 2: there's just a lot of upside from that perspective in
[14:24] Speaker 2: drafting them. So Lamar and Jalen Hurts are both at
[14:27] Speaker 2: fifteen percent. No surprise with Lamar given I've been drafting
[14:30] Speaker 2: the day flowers. I have Terry McLaurin at nineteen percent.
[14:33] Speaker 2: You know, I've talked about him on the show before
[14:35] Speaker 2: as well, and he's in the draft guy as a
[14:37] Speaker 2: player to target this year. He had his best per
[14:39] Speaker 2: route run efficiency last year, despite his age, despite the
[14:44] Speaker 2: quarterback situation. You get a new offensive coordinator that I'm
[14:47] Speaker 2: bullish on, and you get Jaden and Daniels healthy. So
[14:50] Speaker 2: I think I think Terry McLaurin there's no signal to
[14:53] Speaker 2: me that he's fallen off at all, you know, from
[14:55] Speaker 2: a talent perspective. So given the competition there, even if
[14:58] Speaker 2: they get a step on Diggs, I think it's gonna
[15:00] Speaker 2: be fine for Terry McLaurin. I also have sixteen percent
[15:03] Speaker 2: Ashton Genty That is probably my you know, my my
[15:08] Speaker 2: go to like round one to two running back that
[15:11] Speaker 2: I that I've kind of gravitated towards most. I'm trying
[15:14] Speaker 2: to get a little bit more like Kenneth Walker. I'ven't
[15:16] Speaker 2: drafted enough of him, and I want to be a
[15:18] Speaker 2: little bit flatter. I probably don't want to finish at
[15:20] Speaker 2: sixteen percent with gent, but I'd be okay with the
[15:22] Speaker 2: twelve to fourteen percent range.
[15:24] Speaker 3: The volume should be there.
[15:25] Speaker 2: I love the fit and Klink Kubiak's offense, but I
[15:28] Speaker 2: love the potential upgraded quarterback, and the offensive line should
[15:31] Speaker 2: be a lot better this year than it was last
[15:33] Speaker 2: year with their additions and Cole Miller coming back.
[15:36] Speaker 3: So Ashton genty at sixteen percent.
[15:39] Speaker 2: I have Jsn at sixteen percent as well, And the
[15:41] Speaker 2: main reason for that is, I know I've been getting
[15:43] Speaker 2: the ten spot a lot, but I've been getting the five.
[15:45] Speaker 3: To seven spot a lot too.
[15:47] Speaker 2: And the problem is I'll take him at five, but
[15:49] Speaker 2: then he follows sometimes to six and seven, and so
[15:52] Speaker 2: I'll take him at six and seven as well.
[15:54] Speaker 3: So this is more of a I'm not look.
[15:57] Speaker 2: I know that Jaysn is going to regress to a
[15:59] Speaker 2: degree because he was so efficient last year, but I
[16:02] Speaker 2: think Seattle's gonna throw the ball bar this year because
[16:04] Speaker 2: their defense is just not going to be able to
[16:06] Speaker 2: repeat that performance year over years, something that we see
[16:09] Speaker 2: all the time with defenses in football. And as a
[16:12] Speaker 2: result of that, I think they're going to naturally not
[16:14] Speaker 2: be in as grade of scripts. And if they're not
[16:16] Speaker 2: in as gread of scripts, not only that they're running
[16:18] Speaker 2: look at the running back situation. The fact that we're
[16:20] Speaker 2: talking about like Jenerarium Price, who was never a bell
[16:22] Speaker 2: cow in college, and they're already talking about George Hallani
[16:25] Speaker 2: and Emmanuel in this like running back by committee. I
[16:28] Speaker 2: don't know how much they're gonna lean on that run
[16:30] Speaker 2: game necessarily, So I think there's reasons to be bullish
[16:33] Speaker 2: in the passing attack and that volume can combat the
[16:36] Speaker 2: regression from an efficiency standpoint.
[16:37] Speaker 3: For JSN, he's also just a stud, like I don't
[16:40] Speaker 3: I don't know.
[16:41] Speaker 2: I'm trying not to overthink the JSN stuff and be like, oh,
[16:43] Speaker 2: I'm gonna draft Justin Jefferson over Jasense, Like there's a
[16:46] Speaker 2: lot of red flags still with Justin Jefferson's profile, We like,
[16:50] Speaker 2: how do we know that Kyler's gonna work out? Like
[16:52] Speaker 2: at least we have some stability going on with Seattle,
[16:54] Speaker 2: So I'm I'm cool, Like, if you want to take
[16:56] Speaker 2: Amaras Saint Brown over him, fine, like whatever. But but
[16:59] Speaker 2: I've been in the five spot, the six spot, in
[17:02] Speaker 2: the seven spots so frequently that I've just gotten a
[17:04] Speaker 2: lot of JSN. So he's another one. And then real
[17:06] Speaker 2: quick to close this out, Jalen Wattle fifteen percent. When
[17:10] Speaker 2: I go through the market trends that I do in
[17:12] Speaker 2: the draft guide for this range of the draft, Jalen
[17:15] Speaker 2: Wattle checks basically every single box. I think Jalen Waddle
[17:19] Speaker 2: might end up being my favorite value in season long
[17:23] Speaker 2: this year, in the earlier early ish rounds, like he
[17:26] Speaker 2: might end up being that guy based on where he's
[17:28] Speaker 2: being drafted on some of these bigger platforms, you know,
[17:30] Speaker 2: from a season long perspective, and I get him a lot,
[17:33] Speaker 2: like I think that you can get him as early
[17:34] Speaker 2: as the three to four turn on draftings if you
[17:37] Speaker 2: really want to get more exposure, Like I think that's
[17:40] Speaker 2: totally fine given the circumstance there. And then the final
[17:43] Speaker 2: two or two Bengals, I have fifteen percent Chase Brown
[17:46] Speaker 2: and I have fifteen percent T Higgins, but that's partially
[17:48] Speaker 2: again based on where I'm drafting so frequently you know
[17:52] Speaker 2: that one to ten you get him at the end
[17:53] Speaker 2: of the third. He's fallen to the fourth frequently for me,
[17:56] Speaker 2: and there's continued upside. I think T Higgins is just
[17:59] Speaker 2: kind of undervalued and best ball where we know spiked
[18:01] Speaker 2: weak ability is there for him. But then there's contingent upside.
[18:04] Speaker 2: If Jamar Chase were to go down then all of
[18:06] Speaker 2: a sudden, Like I again, I've said this before. But
[18:08] Speaker 2: I always think through this when I'm drafting my teams,
[18:10] Speaker 2: is what would happen, Like where would T Higgins be
[18:13] Speaker 2: drafted if Jamar Chase were not in the picture?
[18:15] Speaker 1: Right?
[18:15] Speaker 3: Would he not be a Nico Collins if not higher
[18:19] Speaker 3: than him type pick?
[18:20] Speaker 1: Right?
[18:20] Speaker 4: Like, yeah, he would be in that late second yeah, yeah.
[18:25] Speaker 2: Right, And so I think that there's you know, we
[18:27] Speaker 2: know there's at least some upside there. So T Higgins
[18:29] Speaker 2: is the last guy in that fifteen percent range.
[18:32] Speaker 3: Those are the guys where I'm at early. I think
[18:33] Speaker 3: a lot of that's going to change.
[18:35] Speaker 2: Hopefully just based on where I draft, because it's still
[18:38] Speaker 2: only eighty drafts, you know, I'm only a little bit
[18:40] Speaker 2: more than halfway there. But I feel pretty good about
[18:43] Speaker 2: all of those individual players, Like I'm not really upset
[18:45] Speaker 2: about having because like, like not only that, but all
[18:48] Speaker 2: of them, maybe Gente aside, maybe jsn aside are in,
[18:52] Speaker 2: and maybe McLaurin aside, but they're all in like pretty
[18:55] Speaker 2: good offenses, like offensive ecosystems that I don't think they're
[18:58] Speaker 2: going to like completely destroy me unless an injury happens
[19:01] Speaker 2: to one of them.
[19:02] Speaker 4: And I think gent is the exact right bet out
[19:05] Speaker 4: of that running back cluster, Like who is going to
[19:08] Speaker 4: be the running back in that five running back cluster?
[19:10] Speaker 4: I mean you could even extend it to include Faith Brown,
[19:14] Speaker 4: a Han and Henry Like who from that cluster? We're
[19:16] Speaker 4: going to look back and say, Wow, maybe they should
[19:18] Speaker 4: have been competing with the mid to early first round guys. Right,
[19:22] Speaker 4: how about a pass catching guy with a team that
[19:24] Speaker 4: invested heavily in its offensive line. Yeah, drafted a quarterback
[19:28] Speaker 4: plays most of its games indoors, like everything's there for him.
[19:32] Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree.
[19:33] Speaker 2: And you know, I've gotten a lot of feedback from
[19:35] Speaker 2: people about like, well, you know, you've talked about rookie
[19:38] Speaker 2: quarterbacks being bad for their personnel, you know, their pass
[19:41] Speaker 2: catchers and their running backs, et cetera.
[19:42] Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean.
[19:43] Speaker 2: Like that, And I talked about this on the show before,
[19:45] Speaker 2: on a mailbag episode. That's more of a proxy to
[19:48] Speaker 2: tell you that that rookie quarterbacks tend to just underperform
[19:51] Speaker 2: in general versus our expectations. But the idea here is
[19:55] Speaker 2: that the system itself, the offensive line, all of the above,
[20:00] Speaker 2: lack of weaponry outside of brock Bowers, all of the
[20:02] Speaker 2: abut which, by the way, Brock Bowers for anyone curious.
[20:05] Speaker 2: I'm not like thirteen percent or so right now. But
[20:07] Speaker 2: aside from Brock Bowers, is like, there's a lot to
[20:10] Speaker 2: like about the volume that Ashton Gent could see in
[20:13] Speaker 2: that backfield in a good you know, with a guy
[20:16] Speaker 2: like Clint Kubiak, And I think that naturally no offense
[20:19] Speaker 2: to your boy, Gino, but I think that you know,
[20:21] Speaker 2: when you add in the offensive line and the quarterback
[20:24] Speaker 2: potential upgrade just given the environment.
[20:26] Speaker 3: I'm not even necessarily going to say that it was
[20:28] Speaker 3: all Gino last year.
[20:29] Speaker 2: The way that you com bat a bad environment is
[20:32] Speaker 2: through volume in fantasy football, and I think Ashton Gent
[20:34] Speaker 2: at the very least is going to see that to
[20:36] Speaker 2: be able to like meet adp. But if the offense
[20:38] Speaker 2: is just better than we expect and he's gonna he
[20:41] Speaker 2: could be a top three running back in fantasy.
[20:43] Speaker 4: Yeah, he could. To call back to Brandon's episode with you,
[20:47] Speaker 4: he could kind of pepr Merchant himself, but at the
[20:50] Speaker 4: same time be extremely talented and be able to break
[20:53] Speaker 4: off massive plays at the same time.
[20:55] Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm not worried about last year's efficiency. There's
[20:58] Speaker 2: literally no correlation with year one yards per carry and
[21:02] Speaker 2: how they volume is what you should be focused on
[21:04] Speaker 2: more than anything like yards per carry. And not only that,
[21:07] Speaker 2: but he was second worst in the league and yards
[21:09] Speaker 2: before contact per attempt only Quinnchot Judkins was worse last year.
[21:13] Speaker 2: So you know, obviously the offensive line played a role,
[21:15] Speaker 2: but they're getting really good players added to that line,
[21:18] Speaker 2: whether through injury return or just through free agency. So
[21:21] Speaker 2: I am I'm into it to ash and gent. Okay,
[21:24] Speaker 2: let's talk about this guest. I brought him up a
[21:26] Speaker 2: couple times he was on the show last year. People
[21:29] Speaker 2: really liked our conversation last year, so I thought, hey,
[21:32] Speaker 2: we should run this back this year.
[21:34] Speaker 3: But it's Todd Burrows, who has played Best Ball for.
[21:37] Speaker 2: A very long time, very active on Twitter at best
[21:39] Speaker 2: Ball NFL. We kind of went in a lot of
[21:42] Speaker 2: different directions with this conversation, and so hopefully people enjoy
[21:46] Speaker 2: that aspect, because it wasn't, you know, more of like
[21:48] Speaker 2: a interview answer interviewer answer type type scenario. Like we
[21:53] Speaker 2: went back and forth and we hashed some things out,
[21:55] Speaker 2: and I think that people will hopefully enjoy that. But
[21:58] Speaker 2: we chatted about a really unique way that Todd likes
[22:01] Speaker 2: to stack the problems that we run into with certain
[22:04] Speaker 2: team builds and roster construction.
[22:07] Speaker 3: And then, like I said, we had some conversations too
[22:08] Speaker 3: that straight away from the show sheets. So it was
[22:10] Speaker 3: a really good time. I hope that comes out when
[22:12] Speaker 3: you listen to it. Without further ado, here is my
[22:15] Speaker 3: interview with Todd Burroughs.
[22:33] Speaker 2: All right, Todd, First off, I have to preface right now,
[22:36] Speaker 2: my ac is broken in the upstairs of my house
[22:39] Speaker 2: and my office is upstairs, and so but if you're
[22:42] Speaker 2: watching this on YouTube, by the end of this recording,
[22:45] Speaker 2: not only that I have a cold right now too,
[22:47] Speaker 2: but by the end of this recording, I will be sweating.
[22:50] Speaker 3: There's no doubt in my mind.
[22:51] Speaker 1: And you know, I will just say that it's because
[22:53] Speaker 1: of all the hot takes that I give. Right Like,
[22:56] Speaker 1: I am going to like take completely responsibility for your sweating. Man,
[23:03] Speaker 1: I had JJ on, JJ had me on, Dude, was sweating?
[23:07] Speaker 1: My takes are so hot?
[23:09] Speaker 2: Yes, yes, exactly. I'm looking forward to this conversation. Though
[23:13] Speaker 2: we had a really good talk last year. You know,
[23:15] Speaker 2: I thought that you brought some really unique perspective to
[23:18] Speaker 2: Best Ball in this best Ball space. As I've gone
[23:20] Speaker 2: on this journey of becoming maybe I am now a
[23:24] Speaker 2: best Ball bro. But I love to hear other perspectives
[23:27] Speaker 2: on this, So let's just start. What's a mistake do
[23:29] Speaker 2: you think drafters are making this year? In other words,
[23:32] Speaker 2: when we look back on this season, what do you
[23:35] Speaker 2: think that we could point to as being the reason
[23:37] Speaker 2: that people didn't do so well?
[23:39] Speaker 1: The two biggest overall things I found this year is
[23:42] Speaker 1: even more than normal. I think the field is overreacting
[23:45] Speaker 1: to the small sample size that's just an inherent part
[23:49] Speaker 1: of best Ball right in DFS football seventeen eighteen twenty
[23:56] Speaker 1: slates a year mini slates, and so best Ball We've
[24:02] Speaker 1: literally only had five to seven slates so far, and
[24:06] Speaker 1: this year I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. I
[24:09] Speaker 1: feel like even the smart people are just overreacting. I mean,
[24:16] Speaker 1: we hear a lot of talk about small sample size
[24:19] Speaker 1: in the community, but the way the board has laid
[24:23] Speaker 1: out this year and people are just seemingly completely overreacting
[24:30] Speaker 1: to what happened last year, which is what opens up
[24:34] Speaker 1: a big opportunity for this year. Last year, I know,
[24:39] Speaker 1: I brought this up a bit about how my biggest
[24:41] Speaker 1: epiphany was that I went from being too much of
[24:44] Speaker 1: an advanced week bro to too aggressive, right. So my
[24:49] Speaker 1: goal last year was to dial it back, and I
[24:52] Speaker 1: not only had my best advance rate in three years,
[24:57] Speaker 1: but I also got a team into the underdog finals
[25:00] Speaker 1: and it came in sixty third. So I feel like
[25:04] Speaker 1: I went for and accomplished a nice balance. But I
[25:07] Speaker 1: feel like the field this year is spending all this
[25:12] Speaker 1: time trying to advance. We don't hear much about correlation anymore.
[25:19] Speaker 1: We don't hear much about week seventeen. We don't hear
[25:22] Speaker 1: about stacking. It's just get your quarterbacks and get your
[25:26] Speaker 1: running backs. What is the most interesting thing to me
[25:30] Speaker 1: in best ball is trying to figure out ways to
[25:34] Speaker 1: get through the pods so that you get to week seventeen,
[25:38] Speaker 1: because that's the hardest thing to figure out.
[25:42] Speaker 2: Refresh my memory a little bit because you talked about
[25:44] Speaker 2: this a little bit last year, but your strategy about
[25:47] Speaker 2: handling Week fifteen and sixteen, I think you said that
[25:49] Speaker 2: you sort of try to trick the pods a little bit.
[25:52] Speaker 3: How are you refining that.
[25:54] Speaker 1: In the past. There's a couple ways to do it.
[25:57] Speaker 1: They're stacking without a quarterback, you know, like at receiver,
[26:01] Speaker 1: hoping that you know, one week, one guy goes off
[26:05] Speaker 1: gets you into the next week. But my favorite way
[26:07] Speaker 1: to do it is by stacking a running back, particularly
[26:11] Speaker 1: a cheap backup running back with a stack right. And
[26:18] Speaker 1: most people don't do that, but we all know that
[26:22] Speaker 1: in a good offense, one week it could be the
[26:25] Speaker 1: running game that gets you there. The next week it
[26:27] Speaker 1: gets you the passing game. And Sharbone and I did
[26:31] Speaker 1: trick the pods a little bit. I got to week
[26:34] Speaker 1: seventeen with Sharboney, Donald and Jaysn and Sharbone had a
[26:41] Speaker 1: huge Week sixteen, and there was this nut matchup with
[26:45] Speaker 1: Donald and Jaysn week seventeen that they completely didn't hit.
[26:50] Speaker 1: You know, another fifteen points and I'd be a lot
[26:53] Speaker 1: wealthier man. You know, the difference between like tenth and
[26:57] Speaker 1: sixty third is a lot of money.
[26:59] Speaker 3: Oh I feel you, yeah, yea.
[27:00] Speaker 2: So speaking of like how people are handling things this
[27:03] Speaker 2: year and how you know you kind of see it
[27:05] Speaker 2: as being reactionary.
[27:07] Speaker 3: First off, do you.
[27:08] Speaker 2: Buy that drafters are approaching best Ball differently this year,
[27:12] Speaker 2: specifically with running backs? And then for you personally, are
[27:16] Speaker 2: you going with mostly running back heavy builds?
[27:19] Speaker 1: No, So I'm doing the same strategy that I did
[27:24] Speaker 1: last year. We've seen running back price in my mind
[27:28] Speaker 1: this year kind of wily coyote over the cliff a bit,
[27:32] Speaker 1: you know, based on two years where running backs mostly
[27:36] Speaker 1: stayed healthy. So that I feel is exactly what I
[27:40] Speaker 1: mean when I talked about the short sighted way people
[27:44] Speaker 1: are thinking about things. And you have even really smart
[27:48] Speaker 1: people in the industry who I believe in, think of
[27:52] Speaker 1: incredibly smart guys saying got to get your running backs,
[27:55] Speaker 1: got to get your running backs. Well, my strategy has
[27:58] Speaker 1: been modi A. Again, the key thing is balance, right.
[28:04] Speaker 1: I don't want to overreact and go to zero running back.
[28:09] Speaker 1: It doesn't fit what I do. I also don't think
[28:11] Speaker 1: it fits the board as much. But with the quarterbacks
[28:16] Speaker 1: moving up, with the running backs moving up, the one
[28:19] Speaker 1: group that has really kind of fallen is the backup
[28:23] Speaker 1: running backs who for years it was like, you know,
[28:26] Speaker 1: zero running back, get your backup running backs, you know,
[28:29] Speaker 1: and this year no one seems to be interested in them.
[28:33] Speaker 1: But they're just as likely to crush when you need
[28:36] Speaker 1: them as they ever were. So I've been doing a
[28:39] Speaker 1: lot of hero running back builds and again I'll have
[28:42] Speaker 1: a couple, you know, the other big point of emphasis
[28:46] Speaker 1: for me is to mix up my builds more, not
[28:49] Speaker 1: get locked into one strategy so much. You know Pat
[28:53] Speaker 1: Karine when he was a big zero running back guy one.
[28:57] Speaker 1: You know Best ball Mania with a two running back star, right,
[29:01] Speaker 1: you want to mix up your builds, But the majority
[29:04] Speaker 1: of my builds are Nothing makes me happier, especially early
[29:08] Speaker 1: when you could get some really good people at the
[29:10] Speaker 1: two three turn, getting that Beijon and the Gibbs, and
[29:13] Speaker 1: then really pushing running back to about the tenth round
[29:18] Speaker 1: and then taking six or seven of them. I think fundamentally,
[29:22] Speaker 1: one of the key things that I believe that's different
[29:25] Speaker 1: than most Best ball people is that early is when
[29:30] Speaker 1: you want to take a chance on the late guys
[29:33] Speaker 1: because there's a lot of uncertainty. Now everyone seems to
[29:37] Speaker 1: want to have certainty at the running back position. Well,
[29:41] Speaker 1: in a couple of weeks, some of these late guys
[29:43] Speaker 1: who are eighteenth you know, sixteenth, seventeenth, eighteenth round guy
[29:48] Speaker 1: are going to win a role, or someone's gonna get
[29:50] Speaker 1: hurt and they're gonna you know, like look at what
[29:52] Speaker 1: happened with Bill last year on the Redskins. He went
[29:55] Speaker 1: from an eighteenth round pick to like a tenth round pick, right.
[29:58] Speaker 1: I want to have those kind of guys in the
[30:02] Speaker 1: eighteenth round, in the seventeenth round, and then when we
[30:06] Speaker 1: start getting more certainty, then I will be more likely
[30:09] Speaker 1: to go to five running backs instead of six or seven.
[30:14] Speaker 1: But for now I want that. I don't want to
[30:16] Speaker 1: have to get the whole backfield to get lucky. But
[30:19] Speaker 1: if I have that great hero running back, take another
[30:23] Speaker 1: one in the Jalen Warren kind of Remandree range, occasionally
[30:28] Speaker 1: a little earlier in that Swift Toton Henderson range, and
[30:32] Speaker 1: then just really load up on guys in the thirteenth
[30:35] Speaker 1: through the eighteenth. I know some of them aren't going
[30:39] Speaker 1: to hit right out of the gate, but some of
[30:41] Speaker 1: them might, and then the premise behind it is still
[30:45] Speaker 1: those guys can hit in the playoff weeks when you
[30:48] Speaker 1: really need them.
[30:49] Speaker 2: So with that being said, are there any early round
[30:52] Speaker 2: running backs rounds one, two, maybe into three that you
[30:55] Speaker 2: are just not on this year?
[30:57] Speaker 1: I mean, I have one other big point of emphasis
[31:01] Speaker 1: for me is I don't want to completely fade and
[31:09] Speaker 1: act like explosive. Guys are invisible. So you're right, So
[31:15] Speaker 1: last year Derrick Henry was invisible to me and boy,
[31:18] Speaker 1: I was a genius right up until week seventeen when
[31:22] Speaker 1: he was the guy.
[31:23] Speaker 3: You know, it's funny.
[31:24] Speaker 2: It's funny Dereck Henry specifically for me, I think I
[31:26] Speaker 2: was at like four and a half five percent last
[31:28] Speaker 2: year with Henry, I had him on my finals team
[31:32] Speaker 2: for the Millions and so he was the he was.
[31:35] Speaker 1: The you probably got a nice day.
[31:38] Speaker 3: Yeah, I was top top forty in the in the Millis.
[31:40] Speaker 3: But but it was but yes, right, that's right.
[31:46] Speaker 2: But to your point, to your point, I found as well.
[31:50] Speaker 2: I think this is what you're alluding to, this this notion.
[31:53] Speaker 2: I wasn't like super high on Henry last year, Like
[31:55] Speaker 2: I said, I was like four and a half five percent,
[31:56] Speaker 2: So I was underweight on Derrick Henry. But those are
[31:59] Speaker 2: around guys. It is very very difficult, even like you know,
[32:03] Speaker 2: if you're not into Devana. I know it's a sexy
[32:06] Speaker 2: thing to not be into Devon ah Chan.
[32:08] Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that guy that gets five point seven
[32:10] Speaker 1: yard to carry it. I don't want any of him, right.
[32:13] Speaker 2: It's like it's hard for me and I look, I
[32:15] Speaker 2: there there are definitely some some sites and some platforms
[32:18] Speaker 2: and from a season long perspective and stuff where I
[32:19] Speaker 2: think he is more of a fade. But regardless of that,
[32:23] Speaker 2: I'm still drafting Devon ah Chan because if you do
[32:25] Speaker 2: enough drafts, you're also gonna end up getting values in
[32:27] Speaker 2: certain spots as well. Is that basically how you're feeling, though,
[32:30] Speaker 2: is that you want that blanket if you.
[32:32] Speaker 1: Will, trying to be more open to explosive guys that
[32:36] Speaker 1: I don't. I'm more open to guys who we need
[32:40] Speaker 1: to build portfolios where we're overweight and underweight. But human
[32:45] Speaker 1: nature is we don't like to make a lot of decisions.
[32:50] Speaker 1: That's just part of being human. So if you don't
[32:53] Speaker 1: like a guy, I mean you hear it on Twitter
[32:55] Speaker 1: every day. These are the six guys I will not
[32:58] Speaker 1: be drafting in any draft. Okay, great, go for that.
[33:02] Speaker 1: You know, I hope it wasn't Derek Henry Week seventeen. Right.
[33:06] Speaker 1: So it's a combination of taking those guys occasionally but
[33:11] Speaker 1: also mixing them in on teams where maybe you're real
[33:16] Speaker 1: happy with your team or they fall a little bit
[33:19] Speaker 1: more than they normally do, but trying to put them
[33:22] Speaker 1: in situations That's where correlating Week seventeen. You know, like
[33:27] Speaker 1: if I take Derrick Henry, I'm much more likely to
[33:30] Speaker 1: try and come back with T Higgins the next round,
[33:32] Speaker 1: right right, because that could be a really great Week
[33:35] Speaker 1: seventeen game. Again, that was the short sample last year,
[33:39] Speaker 1: you know, the last two years. Because it's funny, I've
[33:42] Speaker 1: heard a lot of smart people say the same thing.
[33:44] Speaker 1: I want to be more open to the guys that
[33:47] Speaker 1: I would have faded, And it's because Derek Henry went
[33:50] Speaker 1: nuclear week seventeen. Kyle Pitts was another guy a lot
[33:54] Speaker 1: of people hated, and that's who you needed week fifteen.
[33:57] Speaker 1: The key is to do it's smart and not get
[34:03] Speaker 1: caught up in being one sided with your takes. Yeah,
[34:08] Speaker 1: and then build and then building smarter, building every team
[34:13] Speaker 1: as if it is going to make Week seventeen. You
[34:16] Speaker 1: don't know, you don't want to. You know, you don't
[34:19] Speaker 1: want to hurt your chances of getting to Week seventeen
[34:22] Speaker 1: too much by just focusing on it. But you want
[34:27] Speaker 1: every team that gets there to have a story. So
[34:31] Speaker 1: like for me, tricking the pods, having that backup running
[34:35] Speaker 1: back where with a stack where if one of the
[34:39] Speaker 1: two goes nuclear Week sixteen, now the other one is
[34:43] Speaker 1: low owned Week seventeen and to get the backup running
[34:47] Speaker 1: back with your stack doesn't cost you anything, right, Like
[34:51] Speaker 1: you know, if you've got Brock, Purdy and Evans, if
[34:55] Speaker 1: you want to add Jordan James, you can get him
[34:57] Speaker 1: in the twentieth round on on Grands, right, Josh Allen? Right?
[35:03] Speaker 1: Should I take Josh Allen with Cook? Well? Maybe, but boy,
[35:06] Speaker 1: I can get him with Ray Davis whenever I want.
[35:09] Speaker 2: Let's talk about exposure really quick, since we're kind of
[35:11] Speaker 2: on the topic right here.
[35:12] Speaker 3: The question I get a lot is.
[35:15] Speaker 2: Sort of how much exposure should we have with a
[35:18] Speaker 2: certain player. I know that you mentioned last year you
[35:22] Speaker 2: tend to max out around like that twenty five percent
[35:24] Speaker 2: mark on certain players. Is your philosophy changed it all
[35:28] Speaker 2: year over year based on what you're you're speaking on here,
[35:31] Speaker 2: or is it you know? Are you like, you know,
[35:33] Speaker 2: I know people talk about that like four percent blanket
[35:35] Speaker 2: and stuff and making sure that you have some exposure
[35:38] Speaker 2: to some of those really.
[35:39] Speaker 1: Other people who mock that and exactly and are like, well,
[35:43] Speaker 1: I don't need you know, And all I can say
[35:46] Speaker 1: is I've always had a five to fifteen percent rule
[35:51] Speaker 1: for first and second round picks because they're all really
[35:55] Speaker 1: good players.
[35:56] Speaker 3: They're good players, yeah.
[35:58] Speaker 1: And every year you see huge win The largest win
[36:04] Speaker 1: rates are advance rates are almost owis with guys in
[36:08] Speaker 1: the first and second round. They're the guys who pushed
[36:11] Speaker 1: the needle and the guys who get super charged are
[36:14] Speaker 1: the ones who not only have a good season but
[36:17] Speaker 1: go next to the guys who either get hurt or
[36:20] Speaker 1: something crazy happened, right, and we can't we don't know
[36:25] Speaker 1: who's gonna get hurt. I'll never forget. Famously, I was
[36:29] Speaker 1: back in the Saints Stays. I was like, I can't
[36:32] Speaker 1: take Kamara or Michael Thomas. There's no way both of
[36:35] Speaker 1: them pay off their first round grade. Well, one year
[36:39] Speaker 1: Kamara got hurt, one year Michael Thomas got hurt, and
[36:43] Speaker 1: I had none of the other guy basically right, So
[36:47] Speaker 1: I have a five to fifteen rule. I tend to
[36:50] Speaker 1: get to about twenty five to thirty on a couple
[36:53] Speaker 1: people each year, because you do want to take stands.
[36:56] Speaker 1: But I'm spending a lot more time in time boxes
[37:01] Speaker 1: making sure that I'm mixing up who I'm taking players with.
[37:05] Speaker 1: It's easy during a long season to get caught up
[37:08] Speaker 1: in like right now, I'm super into Ray Davis. I
[37:11] Speaker 1: wasn't a couple months ago, but I want to make
[37:14] Speaker 1: sure that. I mean, I took some Ray Davis when
[37:17] Speaker 1: I didn't like him, and because you have a group
[37:20] Speaker 1: of guys you're hot on in any window, I'm trying
[37:24] Speaker 1: to be more like an optimizer. And yes, I want
[37:27] Speaker 1: to have a lot of Ray Davis right now. I
[37:29] Speaker 1: think he's one of the best late round picks. But
[37:32] Speaker 1: I also want to make sure I'm not forgetting some
[37:35] Speaker 1: of the other guys that I like, just maybe not
[37:38] Speaker 1: as much, but like Demand Claiborne or a couple of
[37:42] Speaker 1: the other late running backs, Tank Bigsby. Because we don't
[37:46] Speaker 1: know who's going to get the injury, I want to
[37:48] Speaker 1: mix it up more. But rules are made to be broken,
[37:51] Speaker 1: and I do have a guy in the second round
[37:54] Speaker 1: who I want to be about twenty percent on this year,
[37:57] Speaker 1: So let's save that for one of your other We're
[38:02] Speaker 1: gonna we're gonna, uh, We're gonna get the heat up
[38:04] Speaker 1: in the kitchen a little bit.
[38:06] Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I'm not quite not quite sweating yet, but
[38:08] Speaker 2: by by the end, by the end, I'm actually shocked.
[38:11] Speaker 2: I'm not because Number one, I'm a sweater and Number two.
[38:14] Speaker 2: I'm not even joking when I say that it's about
[38:16] Speaker 2: ninety degree.
[38:17] Speaker 1: No, I believe you. You have my empathy, and I
[38:20] Speaker 1: appreciate after the prepare of preparing that I did that.
[38:24] Speaker 1: You you're you're you're you're playing through pain, right, you are?
[38:28] Speaker 1: You are playing through pain, and we appreciate.
[38:30] Speaker 3: Yes, all right, let's let's suck a tight end.
[38:32] Speaker 2: I know that you you do like brock Bowers at
[38:34] Speaker 2: costs and that's the Does that mean yeah?
[38:36] Speaker 3: Does that mean that Okay, that's that's that's the dude.
[38:39] Speaker 1: Yeah, that's I want. I want at least twenty percent
[38:41] Speaker 1: of brock Bowers this year.
[38:43] Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm pretty into brock Bowers too.
[38:45] Speaker 2: Does that mean that you're not into the other earlier
[38:49] Speaker 2: round tight ends? What what's your general tight end approach?
[38:52] Speaker 2: Is it like brock Bowers or Busts for you this year?
[38:54] Speaker 1: It's not. I mean, you know, twenty percent means I've
[38:57] Speaker 1: got eighty percent of other people, I think. I think
[39:00] Speaker 1: one of the interesting things about the way the board
[39:03] Speaker 1: has laid out this year is with quarterback moving up,
[39:07] Speaker 1: with running back moving up, basically what you're running into
[39:12] Speaker 1: is I like different tight end. There's a lot of
[39:15] Speaker 1: tight end ADPs that I like this year. So one
[39:19] Speaker 1: of my other favorite like Fannin based on a couple
[39:22] Speaker 1: nonsense things, and he doesn't have a quarterback. He's now
[39:27] Speaker 1: like ninth round, tenth round right, like he's dropped about
[39:30] Speaker 1: two rounds and I sort of liked him where he was.
[39:35] Speaker 1: So a couple months ago, I was really into Tyler Kraft.
[39:38] Speaker 1: I thought he was a great pick. But now a
[39:40] Speaker 1: little further back you get not only Fannin, who I like,
[39:44] Speaker 1: but Laporta, I mean, really talented guy going very late.
[39:49] Speaker 1: You know, you don't need it with tight ends. I
[39:51] Speaker 1: found you don't need the number one tight end. But
[39:55] Speaker 1: typically there's three guys every year that you want, you know,
[39:59] Speaker 1: that just out perform the top three, and they can
[40:02] Speaker 1: come from anywhere on the board. So I mix up
[40:05] Speaker 1: my tight end exposures. Historically, tight ends do not have
[40:10] Speaker 1: the advance rate that running backs and wide receivers. They
[40:14] Speaker 1: don't move the needle in that way. Even Travis Kelcey
[40:17] Speaker 1: in his best year best years was about forty percent,
[40:22] Speaker 1: where you can get fifty sixty percent at the right
[40:27] Speaker 1: running back or wide receiver. So I would say that
[40:32] Speaker 1: tight end for me is more about being different than
[40:35] Speaker 1: the field and making sure that I have enough strength
[40:40] Speaker 1: in that group that it accentuates what I'm doing with
[40:47] Speaker 1: the rest of that team.
[40:50] Speaker 2: Yeah, you mentioned it with quarterbacks. Now quarterbacks are going earlier.
[40:54] Speaker 2: It's been a really interesting conversation piece with guests on
[40:58] Speaker 2: this show talking about the corequarterback position.
[41:01] Speaker 3: It's just strange how.
[41:02] Speaker 2: You know, you get these typical qb ones, you know,
[41:05] Speaker 2: Josh Allen aside, you know, you get the typical qb
[41:07] Speaker 2: ones going up maybe a little bit earlier than they
[41:10] Speaker 2: otherwise would be or in a spot where they generally
[41:13] Speaker 2: would go. But the QB twos are getting pushed up some.
[41:15] Speaker 1: That's exactly my point. What's happened is because running backs
[41:19] Speaker 1: have been pushed up, the top, quarterbacks other than Josh
[41:24] Speaker 1: Allen are actually cheaper than they were last year.
[41:26] Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, right, yeah, like they're more, they're more. I'm
[41:29] Speaker 3: getting more of.
[41:30] Speaker 2: That tier than I've ever gotten in my best ball history,
[41:34] Speaker 2: let's say my best ball one.
[41:35] Speaker 1: But it ties in to your original late round QB theory. Right,
[41:42] Speaker 1: if you get two, but you get them in the window, right,
[41:47] Speaker 1: that was your theory, you get too. Yeah, but two,
[41:50] Speaker 1: but if you know, it was two top fifteen guys,
[41:54] Speaker 1: but if you get those two in the window, it
[41:57] Speaker 1: could win. So to me, what we've seen is because
[42:02] Speaker 1: everyone has to have, right, the cool kids are all
[42:06] Speaker 1: getting three quarterbacks, so everyone needs three quarterbacks. It's pushed
[42:10] Speaker 1: up the weaker quarterbacks, right, But the good, really good
[42:16] Speaker 1: guys who could break fantasy are actually cheaper. I've got
[42:20] Speaker 1: a lot of Jayden Daniels. I've got a ton of
[42:24] Speaker 1: Justin Herbert. I've got a lot of Trevor Lawrence. I
[42:27] Speaker 1: love Dart, I love Purdy. There's like six or seven
[42:33] Speaker 1: eight guys in that range. And again, I don't want
[42:36] Speaker 1: to win a quarterback because they're not the big advance
[42:39] Speaker 1: rate position, and you don't know which game is going
[42:45] Speaker 1: to blow up week fifteen, sixteen seventeen. I want to
[42:48] Speaker 1: mix all that up. And then there's one the other
[42:52] Speaker 1: guy who's going later than he had the last two years,
[42:55] Speaker 1: and that's Baker Mayfield, who I really like, who if
[42:59] Speaker 1: I meet, he's my number one target. He was hurt
[43:03] Speaker 1: play through injury. Most guys would have went on ir
[43:07] Speaker 1: His offensive line was hurt, his receivers were hurt. But
[43:11] Speaker 1: everyone just wants to focus in on what happened last
[43:15] Speaker 1: year to that deam and of course Mike lev Evans
[43:18] Speaker 1: left well. I book is still there, not that I
[43:21] Speaker 1: like him as much as his ADP, but Godwin is
[43:24] Speaker 1: there mcmill and I is one of my most known players.
[43:28] Speaker 1: So that is really my focus at quarterback.
[43:31] Speaker 2: The really interesting part about QB for me is that
[43:34] Speaker 2: when you finish a draft and you you know you're
[43:38] Speaker 2: sitting in like round nine or something, and you decide
[43:40] Speaker 2: to go running back instead of getting a quarterback or something,
[43:43] Speaker 2: and you finish a draft and you look back because
[43:45] Speaker 2: because if you do pass in round nine, round ten,
[43:48] Speaker 2: which is where a lot of these really good you know,
[43:50] Speaker 2: lower QB ones, high MQB twos will end up going
[43:54] Speaker 2: if you pass on one, and you then you then
[43:57] Speaker 2: feel the panic a little bit, you know, because other
[44:00] Speaker 2: people are drafting three quarterbacks and you know that you
[44:03] Speaker 2: need to complete stacks or you want a.
[44:05] Speaker 3: Three quarterback build yourself.
[44:07] Speaker 2: And you finish the draft and you look at it
[44:08] Speaker 2: and you're like, why didn't I just take Brock Purdy
[44:12] Speaker 2: in round ten when CJ.
[44:13] Speaker 3: Stroud is going around.
[44:15] Speaker 1: Especially since the running backs there are just okay, right.
[44:19] Speaker 2: It's the opportunity costs is not significant enough to doing
[44:22] Speaker 2: it right.
[44:22] Speaker 1: So exactly, Eric binfor of Spike Week. I'm big into
[44:26] Speaker 1: the Spike Week discord. He load of those guys in there.
[44:30] Speaker 1: I mean, it's the best discord for best ball. It
[44:33] Speaker 1: is high level, intelligent stuff that we can just bounce
[44:37] Speaker 1: off each other every day. But Eric did a pod
[44:40] Speaker 1: earlier in the year where he says, I'm just getting
[44:42] Speaker 1: my two quarterbacks. I'm just not playing that game right right. Occasionally,
[44:48] Speaker 1: you know, I want some Jordan Love, I like Baker Mayfield.
[44:51] Speaker 1: I want some Malik Willis. But I'm acting for the
[44:55] Speaker 1: most part like the guys after Malik Willis aren't there
[45:00] Speaker 1: in eighteen rounds and a lot of times in twenty rounds.
[45:04] Speaker 1: I just don't think those guys have the kind of
[45:07] Speaker 1: upside that some of the late quarterbacks who went in
[45:11] Speaker 1: the sixteenth and eighteenth round in previous years have, right, right, right,
[45:16] Speaker 1: So if that's what beats me this year, I'll just
[45:19] Speaker 1: tip my hat. But I just don't want to chase
[45:22] Speaker 1: quarterback in most of my drafts.
[45:25] Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, the the only reason I don't do
[45:29] Speaker 2: it in every draft is because of the exposure discussion
[45:31] Speaker 2: we just had. You know, like I still want some
[45:34] Speaker 2: exposure to some of the guys where that cost is
[45:37] Speaker 2: being incurred, but at the same but at the same time,
[45:40] Speaker 2: you know, over on draftings, for instance, you're gonna go
[45:42] Speaker 2: in the late seventh into the mid eighth round, and
[45:45] Speaker 2: that's where Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, those guys are gonna
[45:48] Speaker 2: get drafted. And the wide receivers that you're drafting them
[45:51] Speaker 2: over are like Courtland Sutton, you know, like, which it's fine,
[45:55] Speaker 2: Like Courtland you might love Courtland Sutton, that's fine, or.
[45:58] Speaker 1: Like Dave and such, yeah you might, or you might
[46:02] Speaker 1: love Pat Bryant in the twentieth.
[46:05] Speaker 2: Rounds exactly exactly, but like you know, someone like like
[46:08] Speaker 2: they're they're players that really aren't.
[46:10] Speaker 3: Gonna gonna move you. You know, they're not.
[46:12] Speaker 2: Gonna get you so excited a wide receiver, even the
[46:15] Speaker 2: running backs where you're you're in your in ambiguous backfield territory.
[46:19] Speaker 2: So you do want to throw some darts, you know,
[46:22] Speaker 2: eventually and get some exposure. But again you can go
[46:25] Speaker 2: a round or two later and on DK Jonathan Brooks
[46:28] Speaker 2: is still going that late like he's still just as
[46:31] Speaker 2: much of an upside swing as some of the other
[46:33] Speaker 2: running backs you'd beginning two rounds earlier. So like, again,
[46:35] Speaker 2: i just feel like the way that the typical draft
[46:39] Speaker 2: goes for me is that I'm staring at these quarterbacks.
[46:41] Speaker 3: Jalen Hurts goes in round seven consistently, you know, and
[46:44] Speaker 3: I'm staring at.
[46:45] Speaker 2: These guys, and I'm like, there's not a big enough
[46:47] Speaker 2: difference between the running backs and wide receivers that I'd
[46:50] Speaker 2: be drafting here versus what I'd be getting two rounds later.
[46:53] Speaker 3: Whereas if quarterbacks.
[46:55] Speaker 2: Starts going and the run starts, you can't just say
[46:58] Speaker 2: I'm gonna ignore this run because quarterback are supply does
[47:02] Speaker 2: run out. You know, it does get to a point
[47:04] Speaker 2: where you're like, oh crap, Bryce Young is the top
[47:07] Speaker 2: available quarterback, and Bryce Young, for from from my perspective,
[47:11] Speaker 2: I just don't look at a guy like Bryce Young
[47:13] Speaker 2: and think this guy's gonna win me anything in fantasy football.
[47:16] Speaker 3: You know, like it's just it's just not something that.
[47:19] Speaker 1: Pretty much the same thing. Yeah, it could happen, anything
[47:23] Speaker 1: could happen.
[47:24] Speaker 2: Yeah, I would argue, even with Ward at least like
[47:26] Speaker 2: we haven't seen you know, with Bryce Young, we have
[47:29] Speaker 2: like multiple seasons of data of him in this offense,
[47:33] Speaker 2: and all you know, there's there's at least some like
[47:35] Speaker 2: of this like mystique, you know, with with a guy
[47:37] Speaker 2: like Ward, whereas like Bryce Young, I'm like, we know
[47:41] Speaker 2: what we're getting at this point, you know, generally too inconsistent.
[47:45] Speaker 1: It's not that he can't have good weeks, but he's
[47:49] Speaker 1: he's not going to really help your advance rate most likely.
[47:53] Speaker 2: Yeah, it doesn't doesn't help that he has a week
[47:55] Speaker 2: seventeen matchup against against the seahawksy.
[47:58] Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, well, and again we can overrate that,
[48:02] Speaker 1: you know, of the bad matchups a little bit, totally
[48:05] Speaker 1: but totally. Again, there's two advantages and you've hit on them,
[48:11] Speaker 1: but I'll summarize one is they're just the best picks
[48:16] Speaker 1: where they go right. They're cheaper than where you know,
[48:19] Speaker 1: Drake May going in the fifth, sixth round. I mean,
[48:22] Speaker 1: Drake May. Could you know? I thought of something interesting
[48:25] Speaker 1: because everyone talks about how they had such a bad
[48:30] Speaker 1: schedule last year and they're not going to be able
[48:32] Speaker 1: to do it again this year because they have a
[48:34] Speaker 1: better schedule. And then I saw someone post on Twitter
[48:38] Speaker 1: just basically they shut Drake May down in the second
[48:40] Speaker 1: half last year, right, So it's actually a good thing
[48:45] Speaker 1: that they're playing a tougher schedule. If you're a Drake
[48:47] Speaker 1: May guy. If I have the stack, it's easy. If
[48:51] Speaker 1: I have lad mcconki, I'm taking Justin Higraphy's there. If
[48:55] Speaker 1: I have one of the Dallas wide receivers, I'm taking Dak.
[48:59] Speaker 1: There's enough really good ones in that range. You know,
[49:03] Speaker 1: it's not like you're going to get too much of
[49:05] Speaker 1: them because there's like twelve of them, right, you know,
[49:09] Speaker 1: you know from Lamar down to for me it's dart
[49:13] Speaker 1: or Mahomes. Yeah, you know, it's like twelve guys, right, Yeah,
[49:17] Speaker 1: you can.
[49:17] Speaker 2: Even go I mean you could even argue to Kyler
[49:21] Speaker 2: bo Nix.
[49:22] Speaker 1: I like Kyler a lot. Yeah. I think Kyler is
[49:26] Speaker 1: has always been pretty good for fantasy football exactly, and
[49:30] Speaker 1: people don't like him because he can't do this and
[49:33] Speaker 1: he can't do that. I'm definitely overweight on Kyler. He's
[49:36] Speaker 1: another one of my that's like, if I have Justin
[49:40] Speaker 1: Jefferson or I take Addison and I miss on that
[49:43] Speaker 1: second quarterback, you know, like, so what I'm doing. And
[49:47] Speaker 1: then there's a couple like Drake May Justin Herbert who
[49:50] Speaker 1: you can backstack in that range, Jackson Dart you can backstack,
[49:54] Speaker 1: you get Isaiah Likely, you take Mooney. It's not the
[49:57] Speaker 1: best thing, but it's it's perfectly reasonable, right, And those
[50:02] Speaker 1: guys can score points and get you there without a
[50:05] Speaker 1: true number one, right like Latman Conky's going is the
[50:09] Speaker 1: true number one? Is he gonna be? Maybe? Probably, but
[50:14] Speaker 1: maybe not maybe one of my favorite players of Ronde
[50:17] Speaker 1: Gadsden is the guy you need. Right. So I think
[50:21] Speaker 1: that you're accomplishing two things. You're getting a really great
[50:26] Speaker 1: value overall to build your team, which to me is
[50:30] Speaker 1: always my most important thing. I want as much talent
[50:34] Speaker 1: on my team as I can, and then I want
[50:36] Speaker 1: to take all these other strategies to fit it together
[50:39] Speaker 1: and make a coherent story. But the second thing is
[50:42] Speaker 1: if you get those two quarterbacks, you don't have to
[50:44] Speaker 1: think about quarterback anymore. It's out of you know, Like
[50:48] Speaker 1: if I take brock Bauers in the second and I
[50:50] Speaker 1: get two quarterbacks and the one in the fifth one
[50:53] Speaker 1: in the eighth, I've stacked. Boy. It makes the rest
[50:57] Speaker 1: of the draft really easy. I can just cherry value
[51:01] Speaker 1: right guys that I really like that fell in that draft.
[51:06] Speaker 3: That's one thing that goes unnoticed.
[51:08] Speaker 2: I think a lot in these discussions just about like
[51:11] Speaker 2: roster optimization and strategy and such, is the flexibility in
[51:15] Speaker 2: the late rounds and obtaining some of the falling value.
[51:18] Speaker 3: Like you're saying, you.
[51:19] Speaker 2: Know, if you're stuck and you're like, oh, crap, I
[51:21] Speaker 2: only have three running backs and it's round fifteen or
[51:24] Speaker 2: something like that, and you're like, I gotta just pound
[51:25] Speaker 2: running back from here on out, then then you're going
[51:28] Speaker 2: to be missing out on all of the other values
[51:30] Speaker 2: that potentially exists at why And it's so tilting as
[51:34] Speaker 2: you're doing that, and you're sitting there and you're seeing
[51:35] Speaker 2: this guy who's sitting two rounds later than he typically sits,
[51:39] Speaker 2: and you can't go after him just because of the
[51:41] Speaker 2: way your particular build is sitting.
[51:43] Speaker 1: Right.
[51:43] Speaker 2: So I do think that the flexibility aspect of things
[51:46] Speaker 2: is something that really does go unnoticed.
[51:47] Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think that's an advanced best ball thought,
[51:54] Speaker 1: you know, and it's not one that'll get your clicks, sure,
[51:57] Speaker 1: but it is really really important to be a really
[52:02] Speaker 1: good basketball player in my mind right, and also knowing
[52:07] Speaker 1: where in each draft the values are right, like like
[52:12] Speaker 1: I like Jonah Coleman a lot. Right, I like Emma
[52:16] Speaker 1: Johnson a lot, I like Claiborne, I like Tank Bigsby.
[52:20] Speaker 1: So I know those guys will be there. So I
[52:22] Speaker 1: just need to have enough strength in my running position
[52:26] Speaker 1: back position early that I can mix and match them
[52:29] Speaker 1: while you know, like lately I've been very hot on
[52:33] Speaker 1: Denzel Boston, I'm very high on jay Len McMillan. You
[52:37] Speaker 1: know where, I don't have to take a running back
[52:40] Speaker 1: there if I don't want to. So one of my
[52:43] Speaker 1: key things that I've always focused on is sometimes there's
[52:48] Speaker 1: someone when you pick in the fourth, fifth, sixth round
[52:50] Speaker 1: that you're just so excited about that he's there. You're
[52:53] Speaker 1: taking them right, doesn't matter about your bill, You've got
[52:56] Speaker 1: plenty of time to fill it out. But as a fallback,
[53:01] Speaker 1: if there's a bunch of guys and I'm like, eh, right,
[53:05] Speaker 1: I want to keep my build as even as I can,
[53:08] Speaker 1: because then it gives me the flexibility to not have
[53:14] Speaker 1: happened what you just mentioned later.
[53:15] Speaker 3: Yeah, it's underrated. It's underrated.
[53:17] Speaker 2: And this is this, honestly to me, through doing this
[53:20] Speaker 2: is one of the disadvantages to doing a zero A
[53:23] Speaker 2: true zero RB draft is that you you do lack
[53:27] Speaker 2: flexibility once you get out of like round six, is
[53:30] Speaker 2: that you if you get a falling wide receiver value,
[53:33] Speaker 2: it's not nearly as easy to snag that value up
[53:35] Speaker 2: and snatch it because you are already overweight at that
[53:40] Speaker 2: position and you're gonna you're gonna be struggling in other positions.
[53:42] Speaker 2: I'm not saying that you can't go zero RB. I'm
[53:45] Speaker 2: just saying that it's a thing that you should be
[53:47] Speaker 2: thinking about as you deploy these strategies, as your drafts
[53:50] Speaker 2: are going on.
[53:51] Speaker 3: You know, it's something that that should be top of mind.
[53:53] Speaker 1: For a couple of years, zero RB became a cult
[53:56] Speaker 1: and if you didn't do it, you know, you're the
[53:59] Speaker 1: cult was like, oh no, you know, And now the
[54:02] Speaker 1: cults telling you you have to have three running Which
[54:05] Speaker 1: is so funny that the same guys who would shame
[54:07] Speaker 1: you for not going zero running back are now shaming
[54:11] Speaker 1: you because you're not drafting three running backs in the
[54:13] Speaker 1: first four rounds.
[54:15] Speaker 3: Well, the first year I did that.
[54:16] Speaker 2: So this is the year three of the show, and
[54:18] Speaker 2: the first year I did it, I didn't have great
[54:20] Speaker 2: success with my It was the first year that I
[54:22] Speaker 2: was really max entering and play, you know, doing like
[54:24] Speaker 2: a thousand time to get it and and yeah, and
[54:27] Speaker 2: like I had always played, you know, like but not
[54:30] Speaker 2: to that volume and such, and I went, I went
[54:34] Speaker 2: so heavy with the same structure over and over again,
[54:37] Speaker 2: largely zero RB, and I had a bad year, you know,
[54:40] Speaker 2: just not a good season. Changed it up last year.
[54:43] Speaker 2: You know, I'm doing it again this year where I
[54:45] Speaker 2: still have some zero RB teams. Then't get me wrong,
[54:47] Speaker 2: Like every once in a while, I'll draft.
[54:49] Speaker 1: Every year I will have again, like if I'm in
[54:52] Speaker 1: round four and I've got two wide receivers and back
[54:57] Speaker 1: bowers and Neighbors is sitting there at the end of
[55:02] Speaker 1: the fourth round, somehow I'm taking Neighbors and I'm going
[55:05] Speaker 1: to figure out running back in.
[55:06] Speaker 2: That draft, right right, You can still like, yeah, you
[55:09] Speaker 2: still do those things based on the falling values and such.
[55:12] Speaker 2: But I do think that you know, being so stuck
[55:15] Speaker 2: on that one approach, like I said, and like you
[55:17] Speaker 2: were saying, it's so important to recognize how handcuffed it
[55:22] Speaker 2: makes you as you go through the draft. If you're
[55:24] Speaker 2: not you know, balancing things out, if you don't just
[55:27] Speaker 2: know that if you're not having a balue, you don't
[55:29] Speaker 2: have to have the balance approach. I'm saying, though, if
[55:31] Speaker 2: you don't have that balanced approach, understand that that means
[55:35] Speaker 2: you're not going to have as easy of a time
[55:37] Speaker 2: finding those falling values late.
[55:38] Speaker 1: I tend to be too risk averse, right, I think
[55:42] Speaker 1: every human is either leans a little too risk averse
[55:46] Speaker 1: or a little too safety averse. You need to know
[55:49] Speaker 1: yourself and you need to push yourself out of whatever
[55:53] Speaker 1: your comfort zone is. Because everyone's a hero and boasting
[55:57] Speaker 1: that they you know that I don't care about safety.
[56:01] Speaker 1: You know I'm here to win a million dollars And
[56:03] Speaker 1: then I can't tell you how many guys like that
[56:06] Speaker 1: eventually took on my strategy for exposure because I got
[56:10] Speaker 1: that strategy because one year I went real heavy and
[56:13] Speaker 1: I got crushed. Right, smart people learn from their mistakes.
[56:18] Speaker 2: I want to talk about Week seventeen because we kind
[56:20] Speaker 2: of touched on it earlier. I saw a really interesting
[56:22] Speaker 2: theory might have come from Pete Overzet, but he was
[56:25] Speaker 2: talking about how people aren't talking about Week seventeen correlation,
[56:30] Speaker 2: which you alluded to earlier as much this year, partially
[56:33] Speaker 2: because there are so many streamers that are streaming with
[56:37] Speaker 2: overlays and tools and such and optimizers for while they're drafting,
[56:42] Speaker 2: and so they're not having to speak aloud about those correlations.
[56:47] Speaker 2: Do you buy into that at all or do you
[56:48] Speaker 2: think that it's just one of those things where it's
[56:50] Speaker 2: just not a hot enough topic for people to really
[56:52] Speaker 2: get into.
[56:53] Speaker 1: Yeah. I lean towards it being that it was the
[56:56] Speaker 1: hot topic for two years and now it's not. Yeah.
[57:00] Speaker 1: I went to the spike we tools and I looked
[57:06] Speaker 1: at every early correlation. So like Derrick Henry, how many
[57:12] Speaker 1: times he was with Jamar Chase Chase right down Higgins
[57:16] Speaker 1: for every week seventeen game? And I've done that in
[57:19] Speaker 1: past years and you would see a ten, fifteen, sometimes
[57:23] Speaker 1: twenty percent increase if there was a guy who was correlated.
[57:28] Speaker 1: I don't think people are correlating early intentionally, and I
[57:32] Speaker 1: think that's the big advantage. You know, a lot of
[57:35] Speaker 1: people also think and there's nothing wrong with doing this.
[57:38] Speaker 1: Like if I have Drake May and Pat Bryant, who
[57:41] Speaker 1: I like anyway, is in the seventeenth you know, seventeenth boy,
[57:44] Speaker 1: that makes it easy, right, I get a week seventeen
[57:47] Speaker 1: correlation but so many times when we just drop an
[57:51] Speaker 1: a late guy in to either a stack or a correlation,
[57:56] Speaker 1: it doesn't have the effect of doing it with really
[58:00] Speaker 1: talented guys early. And you add that to something again
[58:05] Speaker 1: that we talk about a lot in Spike Week. You know,
[58:08] Speaker 1: ADP is so static early, and really the chance of
[58:13] Speaker 1: these guys be you know, like, what's the chance that's
[58:16] Speaker 1: you know, Saquon Barkley is going to be that much
[58:19] Speaker 1: better than Chase Brown right right, or Breese.
[58:23] Speaker 3: All that whole tier is. Yeah, a lot of those
[58:25] Speaker 3: guys are just so giant.
[58:27] Speaker 1: So mix it up. And part of that not all
[58:30] Speaker 1: the time you mix it up, but having unique early pairings,
[58:37] Speaker 1: even in tournament best ball, it's really important. I think
[58:41] Speaker 1: in which I don't play like on Drafters because I
[58:44] Speaker 1: can't in Pennsylvania, but I think that moving guys up,
[58:50] Speaker 1: it just doesn't happen. Moxie, who's one of the guys
[58:54] Speaker 1: that he did studies on that people just don't move up.
[58:58] Speaker 1: So you know, sometimes I'll move up a Zay Flowers
[59:03] Speaker 1: so that I can get him with t Higgins. Later
[59:05] Speaker 1: they go right near each other, and now Zay's moved
[59:09] Speaker 1: up a little bit, so occasionally you can get it,
[59:12] Speaker 1: but getting those correlations early, even if you don't end
[59:16] Speaker 1: up getting one of the two quarterbacks in the game.
[59:19] Speaker 1: You know those guys could you know a few years
[59:22] Speaker 1: ago it was they were late. But I'm on Ross,
[59:25] Speaker 1: Saint Brown and Penny both went off in a week
[59:29] Speaker 1: seventeen game and if you didn't have that correlation, you
[59:33] Speaker 1: didn't win money. Right, So there's definitely advantages to it,
[59:38] Speaker 1: and there's more advantages because people aren't doing it as much.
[59:42] Speaker 2: Yeah, I've had this conversation with some people where I
[59:46] Speaker 2: think ADP in general is just so forced by stacking.
[59:50] Speaker 3: Of course, right, you know, quarterbacks will go.
[59:52] Speaker 1: Joe Burrow goes way earlier than he probably should because
[59:56] Speaker 1: if the Chase guy doesn't get him, the Higgins guy's gonna.
[59:59] Speaker 3: Take exactly exactly.
[1:00:00] Speaker 2: And you can always tell, you know, you know, the
[1:00:02] Speaker 2: unstacked quarter the guys, the quarterbacks like Jackson Dart who
[1:00:05] Speaker 2: don't have you know, I mean obviously of the league neighbors,
[1:00:08] Speaker 2: but people are are. If you're a neighbors and there's
[1:00:10] Speaker 2: only one player for Jackson Dart to really stack early.
[1:00:13] Speaker 2: When that's the case, then those guys can fall a
[1:00:15] Speaker 2: little bit from from a pure value perspective, but then
[1:00:17] Speaker 2: the other the other piece of that though from from
[1:00:19] Speaker 2: an ADP standpoint, is is the the the stacking stuff,
[1:00:22] Speaker 2: you know, the week seventeen stuff that you're talking about
[1:00:24] Speaker 2: a little bit, and the it's very easy to get
[1:00:27] Speaker 2: in this like robotic mode where you're like, oh, I
[1:00:29] Speaker 2: don't really want to take Kenneth Walker at two oh
[1:00:32] Speaker 2: two if sometimes he's gonna fall to two oh six,
[1:00:35] Speaker 2: because I can just wait and get the value when
[1:00:37] Speaker 2: that draft happens.
[1:00:38] Speaker 3: I'm in the two oh six spot, I suppose.
[1:00:40] Speaker 2: But in the end, it's like, there's you got to
[1:00:42] Speaker 2: you gotta think about the probability and the realistic outcomes
[1:00:45] Speaker 2: of all of these players and how tight you know,
[1:00:47] Speaker 2: there's a reason that they're tiered toget.
[1:00:49] Speaker 1: There's gonna be six hundred thousand or so, you know teams, right,
[1:00:55] Speaker 1: and if Walker goes off two six or two five
[1:00:59] Speaker 1: and five hundred thousand of them, what you know if
[1:01:04] Speaker 1: you take him at one eight and then come back
[1:01:07] Speaker 1: with someone else in that same tier, yeah, it might
[1:01:12] Speaker 1: not be the most optimal thing. Walker might not deserve
[1:01:16] Speaker 1: to go one eight because and if he did, he
[1:01:18] Speaker 1: probably would but that doesn't mean in one season he
[1:01:24] Speaker 1: couldn't be the guy that you know, like I push
[1:01:26] Speaker 1: up Ashton Genty, I'm not that high on CMC or
[1:01:31] Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor. At ADP. I'll push up Ashton Genty because
[1:01:36] Speaker 1: most people who pass on CMC and Taylor are going
[1:01:39] Speaker 1: to take either aman Ra Jefferson or c d. Lamb.
[1:01:43] Speaker 1: So I'll move up Genty or sometimes Barkley.
[1:01:46] Speaker 2: All right, give me three players, good or bad, that
[1:01:50] Speaker 2: you think are just wildly miss priced right now?
[1:01:53] Speaker 1: You know, I think a lot of them. ADP's gotten
[1:01:57] Speaker 1: very efficient. A lot of the players I thought were
[1:02:00] Speaker 1: badly misspriced. The field has adjusted on. I pretty much
[1:02:04] Speaker 1: covered a lot of the guys already. I talked about
[1:02:06] Speaker 1: Ray Davis. Not only does he have contingent value. If
[1:02:11] Speaker 1: Cook gets hurt, they're talking about giving Davis Cook more
[1:02:16] Speaker 1: passing game work, and to me that means less Ty
[1:02:21] Speaker 1: Johnson and more Ray Davis. He might have a bit
[1:02:24] Speaker 1: of a floor. There's a couple guys I'm not on
[1:02:27] Speaker 1: a make a Buka at cost. He had that fast start,
[1:02:32] Speaker 1: he faded, Yes, he was hurt a little bit, but
[1:02:35] Speaker 1: I think there's a much better chance that Godwin or
[1:02:39] Speaker 1: Jalen McMillan ended up being you know, I think those
[1:02:42] Speaker 1: three guys might all end up being pretty good together,
[1:02:46] Speaker 1: and Ibuka goes really high. One I'm fading is DeVante Adams.
[1:02:52] Speaker 1: I just think his ADP it's fallen, but he's really
[1:02:56] Speaker 1: getting up there in age and he was propped up
[1:02:59] Speaker 1: by eighteen touchdowns.
[1:03:01] Speaker 3: Something like that crazy crazy touchdown.
[1:03:04] Speaker 1: Not that he can't do it again, right, but again
[1:03:08] Speaker 1: that you know, he's just not That's one guy that
[1:03:12] Speaker 1: I still would have liked to have seen fall more.
[1:03:16] Speaker 1: How about you, Do you have a couple guys, because
[1:03:18] Speaker 1: I really am struggling to answer that question right now,
[1:03:23] Speaker 1: there's guys I like a little, you know, there's just
[1:03:26] Speaker 1: nobody I want to like plant a flag on.
[1:03:30] Speaker 2: The hardest part of my draft guide this year was probably,
[1:03:33] Speaker 2: I mean the research was a lot, but like just
[1:03:35] Speaker 2: the players who avoid section was tough.
[1:03:37] Speaker 3: I mean, it's the market seems pretty efficient right now.
[1:03:40] Speaker 2: I went with the approach more so with my avoid
[1:03:43] Speaker 2: section for the guide of like looking at specific platforms
[1:03:46] Speaker 2: and saying this guy is just because it's a lot
[1:03:48] Speaker 2: easier instead of looking at more consensus but strictly from
[1:03:51] Speaker 2: like a best ball perspective. You know, quarterback is always
[1:03:53] Speaker 2: a position where you can't really have a strong take
[1:03:55] Speaker 2: because you're just simply stacking for the most part, right
[1:03:58] Speaker 2: Like you know, in a manage le, I'm gonna probably
[1:04:00] Speaker 2: not be as into a Joe Burrow, But if I
[1:04:03] Speaker 2: have Jamar, Chaser T.
[1:04:04] Speaker 3: Higgins and best ball, I'll still take Joe Burrow.
[1:04:06] Speaker 2: You know, I'm a little bit afraid as you are,
[1:04:09] Speaker 2: of Jonathan Taylor at his cost, just because of especially
[1:04:13] Speaker 2: d K where you know you get it's it's full pprs.
[1:04:15] Speaker 2: It's a little bit of a of a difference for
[1:04:17] Speaker 2: a guy like JT, who's maxed out in the eleven percent
[1:04:20] Speaker 2: target share.
[1:04:21] Speaker 3: I've got a thought, Yeah, what's what's that with JT?
[1:04:25] Speaker 1: You know, like in dfs in the old days Fan
[1:04:28] Speaker 1: Duel and DraftKings, you know, some Sundays you play a
[1:04:32] Speaker 1: lot of one guy on one site because he was
[1:04:35] Speaker 1: priced differently than another. I'm having a hard time drafting
[1:04:39] Speaker 1: some of the past catching backs, not that there's as
[1:04:42] Speaker 1: many as there used to be on Dog, but they
[1:04:46] Speaker 1: go basically in the same range on DraftKings, guys like
[1:04:50] Speaker 1: Woody Marks, Dylan Sampson. I think is a tremendous country
[1:04:54] Speaker 1: Draft Kings.
[1:04:55] Speaker 3: Yeah, I've got so.
[1:04:57] Speaker 1: Yeah. I think that is one area where I think
[1:05:02] Speaker 1: I'm seeing a lot of value is in those past
[1:05:04] Speaker 1: catching backs on DraftKings.
[1:05:06] Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I agreed.
[1:05:08] Speaker 2: I'll say what one player that I am very underweight on,
[1:05:10] Speaker 2: and it's kind of contrarian because there's a lot of
[1:05:13] Speaker 2: big names in the space that are very high on
[1:05:15] Speaker 2: him as a sort of a middle round running back
[1:05:18] Speaker 2: pick for for just getting some points is Tony Pollard.
[1:05:21] Speaker 1: I should have mentioned him. I have. I think I
[1:05:24] Speaker 1: have one percent Tony Pollard and last year I had
[1:05:27] Speaker 1: twenty three percent.
[1:05:29] Speaker 2: Yeah, it's really really a hard bet for me when
[1:05:31] Speaker 2: you look at how he performed last year specifically as
[1:05:34] Speaker 2: a receiver. You know, as you archs, parole run was
[1:05:36] Speaker 2: really poor. It's been poor now for multiple seasons.
[1:05:38] Speaker 1: He's not a young man anymore either.
[1:05:40] Speaker 3: Not a young man.
[1:05:41] Speaker 2: He he he had pretty bad splits with Taj Spears
[1:05:44] Speaker 2: last year, even if you're just looking at you know,
[1:05:46] Speaker 2: usage right and as his route share when Taj Spears
[1:05:50] Speaker 2: was healthy.
[1:05:50] Speaker 3: And I don't think Nick Singleton.
[1:05:52] Speaker 2: Is necessarily a zero all season long. You know, there's
[1:05:54] Speaker 2: a chance that we see some singleton down the stretch.
[1:05:58] Speaker 2: And again one of the past that you're talking about,
[1:06:00] Speaker 2: you know, Dylan Samson laid on dk TA Jay Spears
[1:06:03] Speaker 2: in the same boat where he could easily just be
[1:06:06] Speaker 2: a pass catching you know, play from behind kind of back,
[1:06:10] Speaker 2: which is how he's been deployed.
[1:06:11] Speaker 3: And it's a new coaching staff and such, but not that.
[1:06:13] Speaker 2: But Tennessee's offense could suck, realistic, you know, like that's
[1:06:17] Speaker 2: also where things go south. So I found myself in
[1:06:20] Speaker 2: that Pollard range going more with like Jalen Warren, Ramandre Stevenson,
[1:06:25] Speaker 2: players that I have.
[1:06:26] Speaker 1: The same, you know, just like and I really like
[1:06:29] Speaker 1: Warren because he could be the guy that they're dropping
[1:06:32] Speaker 1: off fifty sixty Rogers could be dropping off fifty sixty passes.
[1:06:37] Speaker 1: And ultimately I think he's a better running back than
[1:06:40] Speaker 1: Rico Dowdle too.
[1:06:42] Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree Jalen Warren.
[1:06:44] Speaker 2: I think Jalen Warren and this is maybe a slightly
[1:06:47] Speaker 2: hot take, but like, I think he's one of the
[1:06:48] Speaker 2: most underrated like real life running backs in the NFL period,
[1:06:52] Speaker 2: Like he's really good at all offense.
[1:06:54] Speaker 1: It's a new staff, it's a new game.
[1:06:56] Speaker 2: Yeah, and I know that people are attached to the
[1:06:58] Speaker 2: McCarthy dawdle thing, and I get it, but I've leaned
[1:07:01] Speaker 2: more Warren than Yeah.
[1:07:03] Speaker 1: Everyone's attached to somebody until the other guy's better. Yeah, right, Like, ultimately,
[1:07:08] Speaker 1: people underestimate how much coaches want to win and how
[1:07:13] Speaker 1: much Aaron Rodgers is going to be, Like, get this
[1:07:16] Speaker 1: guy off the field and give me Jalen Warren.
[1:07:18] Speaker 2: Yeah, great pass protector, great pass catcher. I mean, there's
[1:07:21] Speaker 2: a lot to like those.
[1:07:23] Speaker 3: Yeah.
[1:07:24] Speaker 1: I do think that is definitely a really, really good one.
[1:07:30] Speaker 1: I like that, and Warren has become one of my
[1:07:33] Speaker 1: favorite players, and I just think that in general. One
[1:07:38] Speaker 1: of the underestimated things that I beat myself up for
[1:07:43] Speaker 1: for not doing in the past that I've gotten better
[1:07:46] Speaker 1: at is if I don't like powered and there's really
[1:07:50] Speaker 1: only two guys. Singleton could do it, but he's coming
[1:07:53] Speaker 1: off the foot. I'm up to about eighteen percent on
[1:07:57] Speaker 1: Tajy Spears. I've always had a lot of Spears. I
[1:08:00] Speaker 1: loved him coming out. I thought he had some really
[1:08:02] Speaker 1: unique skills, and I think but from just a strategic standpoint,
[1:08:09] Speaker 1: if you're really down on one guy, make sure you
[1:08:12] Speaker 1: take the backup because then you're getting double pay if.
[1:08:17] Speaker 3: You helped me. Yeah, that helped me so much last
[1:08:19] Speaker 3: year with Cuba and Rico.
[1:08:20] Speaker 2: Yeah, I was I was fading Tuba last year and
[1:08:22] Speaker 2: and naturally just gravitated towards Rico.
[1:08:25] Speaker 3: And that's awesome. It's true. Yeah, it's very true.
[1:08:28] Speaker 2: All right, Before I let you go, I am borderline
[1:08:30] Speaker 2: sweating and kind of see it if you're watching on.
[1:08:32] Speaker 1: You my takes weren't hot enough. I'm sorry, Well that's no.
[1:08:35] Speaker 2: I'm saying, you got to give me one fire bold
[1:08:38] Speaker 2: take before I let you go, as I do with
[1:08:40] Speaker 2: every guest, so so so throw it out there.
[1:08:42] Speaker 1: I got two. One is that Brock Bauers leads the
[1:08:46] Speaker 1: NFL in receptions.
[1:08:47] Speaker 3: Okay, I like that.
[1:08:48] Speaker 1: And the other one is that one of Jonah Coleman
[1:08:51] Speaker 1: or Demon Clayborn workout roles to start the season. Yeah,
[1:08:57] Speaker 1: and and and and and that one of them end
[1:09:00] Speaker 1: up being the lead back going down the stretch.
[1:09:03] Speaker 3: Can I can I tell people a little bit of
[1:09:04] Speaker 3: a secret here.
[1:09:05] Speaker 2: First off, I've loved this conversation because it literally just
[1:09:09] Speaker 2: devolved into a conversation.
[1:09:11] Speaker 3: You know, it wasn't you know?
[1:09:12] Speaker 2: And this is what I think becoming bestball bro is
[1:09:14] Speaker 2: all about and what I think people like to hear.
[1:09:17] Speaker 3: But I'll share a little secret.
[1:09:19] Speaker 2: Joonah Coleman right now is by far my highest exposed
[1:09:22] Speaker 2: player on draft.
[1:09:23] Speaker 1: What do you like about him?
[1:09:25] Speaker 2: So I my stance on Coleman from a prospecting standpoint,
[1:09:29] Speaker 2: and like with my model and going through all of that,
[1:09:31] Speaker 2: was Denver looked at JK. Dobbins and said, hey, we
[1:09:36] Speaker 2: like you, but we know that you're not durable. Right
[1:09:38] Speaker 2: And and not only that, they use JK. Dobbins in
[1:09:41] Speaker 2: a very one dimensional way last year. He was not
[1:09:43] Speaker 2: a pass catcher, and.
[1:09:44] Speaker 1: They use Harvey pretty much the same.
[1:09:46] Speaker 2: Yeah, and Harvey Harvey was their pass catcher, and They're
[1:09:49] Speaker 2: like the I have a stance that I think Dobbins
[1:09:52] Speaker 2: is actually the player that I'm gonna that I'm least
[1:09:54] Speaker 2: high on of the three by far, just because I
[1:09:56] Speaker 2: don't see the ceiling outcome for him enough, just just
[1:09:59] Speaker 2: giving the pas mass catching role that he has.
[1:10:01] Speaker 3: But with with R. J. Harvey, you know, they certainly
[1:10:04] Speaker 3: see saw player.
[1:10:05] Speaker 2: You know, I thought as a prospect he was a
[1:10:06] Speaker 2: little bit overvalued by the market. I didn't mind him
[1:10:09] Speaker 2: at redraft last year. But from a dynasty standpoint, I
[1:10:12] Speaker 2: wasn't like jumping for joy about.
[1:10:13] Speaker 3: Harvey as I did.
[1:10:15] Speaker 2: Yeah, with that being said, I think he did have
[1:10:18] Speaker 2: some explosion. I do think that he showed off some
[1:10:20] Speaker 2: pass catching chops last year, right, and so so in
[1:10:23] Speaker 2: that environment, you know that he's getting some high Like
[1:10:26] Speaker 2: if you look at his weighted opportunity last year, even
[1:10:28] Speaker 2: with Dobbins, it wasn't as because I think a lot
[1:10:30] Speaker 2: of times people understate the value of a target, especially
[1:10:33] Speaker 2: in a full PPR platform. And anyways, they're looking at
[1:10:37] Speaker 2: Jonah Coleman and they're saying, hey, we tried to rely
[1:10:40] Speaker 2: on you down the stretch.
[1:10:42] Speaker 3: What you weren't reliable enough.
[1:10:43] Speaker 2: You know, one of the worst players in rushing yards
[1:10:45] Speaker 2: over expected per attempt last year could play a pass
[1:10:48] Speaker 2: catching role. I think they still are going to use
[1:10:50] Speaker 2: him in the red zone and in that sort of
[1:10:51] Speaker 2: like gadgety way that they did last year. But Dobbins,
[1:10:54] Speaker 2: they said, hey, I don't know if you could really
[1:10:58] Speaker 2: carry this workload for us for the entire season. So
[1:11:01] Speaker 2: let's get one of the most boring all around backs
[1:11:04] Speaker 2: in last in this year's draft, and Janah Coleman, who
[1:11:07] Speaker 2: is not explosive.
[1:11:08] Speaker 3: That's what R. J. Harvey brings to the table. But
[1:11:10] Speaker 3: he can pass pro I.
[1:11:11] Speaker 1: Think I think he's more explosive than people give him credit.
[1:11:14] Speaker 2: There's there's a possibility, there's a definite possibility of that,
[1:11:17] Speaker 2: but at the very but but I do think that
[1:11:19] Speaker 2: Harvey is more explosive.
[1:11:21] Speaker 1: There's no doubt.
[1:11:22] Speaker 3: From a trade perspective, completely agree.
[1:11:24] Speaker 1: I'm not a Harvey guy, but that's he is, right.
[1:11:28] Speaker 2: So so my stance with Coleman is that he backs
[1:11:31] Speaker 2: up both positions. He can play a pass catching role
[1:11:35] Speaker 2: for them because he's he proved that in college and
[1:11:37] Speaker 2: he was good at doing that in college as a
[1:11:40] Speaker 2: three down guy. But he can be a bruiser too,
[1:11:42] Speaker 2: and he might even get some goal line work as
[1:11:44] Speaker 2: as the season goes on, especially if they're worried about
[1:11:47] Speaker 2: Dobbins and injury, et cetera and seeing that short yardage stuff.
[1:11:51] Speaker 2: So to me, Coleman is someone who should get some
[1:11:55] Speaker 2: work in a three headed backfield. Like I think he's
[1:11:58] Speaker 2: going to get something in that backfield. And you're buying fifteen,
[1:12:02] Speaker 2: sixteenth round in DraftKings, you're buying points late. That's all
[1:12:05] Speaker 2: it is to me. But He has also multiple outs
[1:12:08] Speaker 2: for contingent upside right where where if one of those
[1:12:11] Speaker 2: two get hurt, he's all of a sudden going to
[1:12:13] Speaker 2: be a ten plus touch per game type player.
[1:12:16] Speaker 1: This ties into one of my hot takes and back
[1:12:20] Speaker 1: to your first question. Everyone is convinced this running back
[1:12:25] Speaker 1: class is crap. Right, you've heard it, and overall it.
[1:12:29] Speaker 3: Is Yeah, you're right, you heard it from me, it
[1:12:31] Speaker 3: to us.
[1:12:32] Speaker 1: Yeah, but that doesn't mean there aren't going to be
[1:12:35] Speaker 1: two or three guys.
[1:12:36] Speaker 3: I agree.
[1:12:37] Speaker 1: Who you know? The NFL needs running backs every year,
[1:12:40] Speaker 1: Guys get hurt, Guys age out. So to me, Jonah
[1:12:44] Speaker 1: Coleman does a couple things. One, he is very good
[1:12:48] Speaker 1: at cutbacks and when you have a big offensive line,
[1:12:51] Speaker 1: that guy who can make that one cut get up field.
[1:12:55] Speaker 1: I think Sean Payton's going to love that. Sean Payton's
[1:12:57] Speaker 1: also going to love the fact that he can be
[1:13:01] Speaker 1: on the field and you don't know whether it's going
[1:13:03] Speaker 1: to be run or pass where the Dobbins, Yes, sometimes
[1:13:08] Speaker 1: it's going to be a pass, but most of the
[1:13:11] Speaker 1: But my point is Jonah Coleman can play both sides.
[1:13:14] Speaker 1: He can pass, block, and the weird thing is he
[1:13:19] Speaker 1: had more college receptions in each of his last two
[1:13:22] Speaker 1: years than R. J. Harvey did. Yes, Okay, now that
[1:13:26] Speaker 1: doesn't mean a heck of a lot. You know, college
[1:13:29] Speaker 1: reception totals are completely unsticky. But when I first looked
[1:13:34] Speaker 1: that up and saw it, I was like, there's something
[1:13:37] Speaker 1: no one thinks.
[1:13:38] Speaker 2: I mean, even when I look at my adjusted receiving
[1:13:41] Speaker 2: numbers in the Zapp model, Jonah Coleman still looks better
[1:13:44] Speaker 2: than what RJ. Harvey did from a receiving side.
[1:13:46] Speaker 1: I'm glad to hear that because it's what I saw
[1:13:50] Speaker 1: on tape. And I'm no expert, but I really Jonah
[1:13:56] Speaker 1: Coleman and Emma Johnson have been my two highest stone guys.
[1:14:01] Speaker 1: I just think Coleman has a clearer path to being
[1:14:06] Speaker 1: the number one.
[1:14:07] Speaker 3: It's just weird, Like I just didn't like JK. Dobbins.
[1:14:10] Speaker 2: I I loved him last year. I drapted a ton
[1:14:12] Speaker 2: of Dobbins. I had him as a as a target.
[1:14:14] Speaker 2: I love that we're just ending this show on on
[1:14:15] Speaker 2: some random Broncos backfield. The best ball Bros did Dobbins,
[1:14:21] Speaker 2: though Dobbins did not have the ceiling and the the season.
[1:14:25] Speaker 2: Even when you just look at his output that I
[1:14:27] Speaker 2: think people believe he did. It's just that they got
[1:14:30] Speaker 2: him at a good price and he was a value
[1:14:31] Speaker 2: piece for them and.
[1:14:32] Speaker 1: The other thing. They brought him back, but it wasn't
[1:14:35] Speaker 1: like he was a priority bring back. He was out
[1:14:38] Speaker 1: there for a couple of weeks before they brought him back. Yeah.
[1:14:40] Speaker 3: Yeah, and he's coming off an injury that no one
[1:14:42] Speaker 3: talks about. That's the anothers to it.
[1:14:44] Speaker 2: Yeah, right right, So yeah, I mean I could easily,
[1:14:47] Speaker 2: you know, we could look back at this and January.
[1:14:51] Speaker 2: I didn't mind Claiborne. You know, he's undersize. That's that's
[1:14:54] Speaker 2: the biggest issue. I think I've oddly this season turned
[1:14:59] Speaker 2: into never been a Jordan Mason guy. I'm drafting Jordan
[1:15:02] Speaker 2: Mason for the first time. I've been a fantasy career.
[1:15:05] Speaker 1: Spike Week guys got me taking.
[1:15:07] Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I've been.
[1:15:08] Speaker 2: I've been for the first time drafting Jordan Mason when
[1:15:11] Speaker 2: I've you know, railed against him historically.
[1:15:14] Speaker 1: I kind of dug him. But you know, I don't know,
[1:15:17] Speaker 1: my memory must have been bad. I didn't think he
[1:15:20] Speaker 1: was that good last year. But the numbers that Eric
[1:15:23] Speaker 1: explosive Eric shared, Yeah, so I think you know, I
[1:15:28] Speaker 1: think the Vikings offense, I think the Bucks offense are
[1:15:32] Speaker 1: two really less expensive offenses that could be top five
[1:15:39] Speaker 1: to seven offenses.
[1:15:40] Speaker 3: Right, that could be good this year. Yeah, agreed?
[1:15:42] Speaker 2: All right, Todd, let everyone know where they can find
[1:15:43] Speaker 2: you take all that good stuff. This was a great conversation.
[1:15:46] Speaker 1: I I have. I'm retired right now, I'm nowhere. I'm
[1:15:50] Speaker 1: not podcasting on my own. I had a really good concept.
[1:15:54] Speaker 1: No one wanted to hear about it, and I, you know,
[1:15:58] Speaker 1: so I am just trying to prove everyone wrong by
[1:16:01] Speaker 1: kicking everyone's ass and I love it.
[1:16:04] Speaker 3: I love it. Good stuff. But you're on.
[1:16:06] Speaker 1: Twitter though, at Best Ball NFL and pretty easy to remember.
[1:16:11] Speaker 1: And I really enjoyed this, and I hope we fight
[1:16:14] Speaker 1: each other out for the top prize on DraftKings this year.
[1:16:18] Speaker 3: Agreed.
[1:16:19] Speaker 2: Agreed, Yeah, you were on last year, had some really
[1:16:21] Speaker 2: great feedback from people. They loved it, so I had
[1:16:24] Speaker 2: to bring you back again this year. And I really
[1:16:26] Speaker 2: enjoyed you know, your insight. I think you bring, you know,
[1:16:29] Speaker 2: some uniqueness to the table from an analysis standpoint. So
[1:16:32] Speaker 2: thank you for your time. Everyone else listening, thank you
[1:16:35] Speaker 2: for your time as well. Hopefully you liked, you know,
[1:16:37] Speaker 2: the little rambling that that Todd and I had at
[1:16:39] Speaker 2: the end.
[1:16:39] Speaker 1: Now I'm always very succinct.
[1:16:44] Speaker 3: Yeah right right, But make sure you check out lateround
[1:16:47] Speaker 3: dot com.
[1:16:48] Speaker 2: The Draft Guide is out that's being updated weekly. Check
[1:16:51] Speaker 2: that out.
[1:16:51] Speaker 3: It is for sale.
[1:16:52] Speaker 2: Make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel and the podcast,
[1:16:56] Speaker 2: but otherwise everyone, thanks for tuning in.

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