# Becoming a Best Ball Bro: A Different Approach in August?

An episode of [The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1224965828), 12 Aug 2026, 1 h 09 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0a233618-d694-4c81-a139-b34e00f98fb1/0b611d10-729f-4c80-bc28-b4a30153f9e0/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=5747cc82-33a9-497c-8353-b34e00f98fbe

JJ tells Rich about some of the strategies he's using in best ball drafts right now before the two discuss the latest ADP risers and fallers. JJ is then joined by multi-million-dollar best ball winner Sam Sherman to talk about how he processes news this time of year, Josh Allen's ADP, how his approach to drafts changes in August, and so much more. ---------- All DraftKings Customers enter a lineup into the Best Ball $20 million Headliner Contest and receive a bonus ticket for a 2nd entry! Download the DraftKings app and sign up using https://bit.ly/LateRound2026 or promo code LATEROUND! The Crown is Yours! Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Help is available for problem gambling. Call (888) 789-7777 or visit ccpg.org (CT). 18+ in most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply. Void where prohibited. 1 per customer. Must enter a lineup into the NFL Best Ball $20M Headliner Contest. $25 entry fee. Bonus issued as 1 ticket to NFL Best Ball $20M Headliner Contest. Ticket reward is site credit valid for use only on NFL Best Ball $20M Headliner Contest. Ticket reward is single-use and expires at contest lock on 9/9/26. See terms at https://www.draftkings.com/promotions. Ends 9/9/26 at contest lock. Sponsored by DraftKings. #DKPartner See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:01] Speaker 1: JJ.
[0:01] Speaker 2: Yesterday we took my five year old son on a
[0:04] Speaker 2: belated birthday trip to Disneyland, and we were walking on eggshells,
[0:10] Speaker 2: a little bit five year old on the spectrum. And
[0:13] Speaker 2: the last couple of times we've gone to the fair
[0:15] Speaker 2: or Sesame place, he's been just kind.
[0:17] Speaker 1: Of touch and go about some of the rides, but
[0:20] Speaker 1: he was fantastic.
[0:21] Speaker 2: In fact, the only scary moment came not when we
[0:25] Speaker 2: were faced with a giant snake in Indiana Jones or
[0:28] Speaker 2: dynamite was blasting in front of us on Rolling Thunder.
[0:32] Speaker 2: It was when we were halfway through the line at
[0:34] Speaker 2: the Jungle Cruise, weaving up and down staircases, and he
[0:38] Speaker 2: looked up at me and said, Daddy, I need to pee.
[0:41] Speaker 3: I'm JJ, And over the last couple of years, I've
[0:44] Speaker 3: been doing everything I can to be a best ball Brough,
[0:46] Speaker 3: and last season things finally fell into place. I got
[0:50] Speaker 3: fortieth in the DraftKings MILLI Contest, taking home twenty thousand dollars.
[0:54] Speaker 3: Maybe I became a best ball Brook, but I'm still
[0:57] Speaker 3: looking to learn more about this game, and I still
[1:00] Speaker 3: want others to come on this ride with me. So
[1:02] Speaker 3: even if you consider me a best ball bro. This
[1:05] Speaker 3: could be your year. This could be the year that
[1:07] Speaker 3: you officially become a best ball bro. This episode is
[1:27] Speaker 3: sponsored by DraftKings. We partnered up with DraftKings again this
[1:30] Speaker 3: year for Best Ball and we've got to can't miss
[1:32] Speaker 3: offer on their biggest best Ball contest ever, twenty million
[1:35] Speaker 3: dollars in total prizes. It's Draft one, get one, draft
[1:39] Speaker 3: your team once, no weekly lineup management, and your top
[1:42] Speaker 3: scorers start automatically each week all season long. Download the
[1:46] Speaker 3: DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and sign up with promo code
[1:50] Speaker 3: Late Round. Enter a lineup in the twenty million dollars
[1:52] Speaker 3: Best Ball Contest for twenty five dollars and get a
[1:55] Speaker 3: bonus ticket for a second entry two shots at the title.
[1:59] Speaker 3: Draft one get one only on Draft Kings. The crown
[2:03] Speaker 3: is yours. Welcome into another episode of becoming a Best
[2:08] Speaker 3: ball Bro. I'm JJ Zachariese and joined as always by
[2:12] Speaker 3: Rich Ryan Rich. What's going on?
[2:13] Speaker 1: Buddy doing?
[2:14] Speaker 2: Good Man recovering from the mouse? Last night when we
[2:16] Speaker 2: got back we put him down. That was one of
[2:19] Speaker 2: those moments sometimes you just crack up in a cold
[2:21] Speaker 2: one and it's just like this is the most satisfying
[2:23] Speaker 2: beer that I could potentially right now.
[2:26] Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I'm a big look, I'm a big Disney guy.
[2:29] Speaker 3: I love doing all things Disney. It's fun. I mean
[2:32] Speaker 3: for me, there's some nostalgia to it, you know obviously,
[2:35] Speaker 3: just you know, growing up and watching the Disney stuff.
[2:38] Speaker 3: But like I went to Disney a handful of times
[2:39] Speaker 3: growing up too, so like I love the vibe. Like
[2:42] Speaker 3: we took my daughter before my son was around to
[2:45] Speaker 3: Disney a few years ago and it was like one
[2:47] Speaker 3: of the best trips of my life because it was
[2:49] Speaker 3: just so you're so stimulated by everything going around you.
[2:52] Speaker 3: It just forces you to be so present in the moment.
[2:54] Speaker 3: That's why what I love about it.
[2:56] Speaker 2: They don't miss a single detail, and it's crazy, just
[2:58] Speaker 2: like walking around even in the new Star Wars land
[3:01] Speaker 2: where nothing is like too tall, but you just you
[3:05] Speaker 2: forget you're in Anaheim, California, like for the entirety of
[3:08] Speaker 2: the day.
[3:09] Speaker 3: To be fair. When I went, it was in May
[3:11] Speaker 3: and I didn't have any slow drafts going. I feel
[3:13] Speaker 3: like if I, you know, had had that happening, I might, uh,
[3:16] Speaker 3: it might be a little bit more tilting where I'd
[3:18] Speaker 3: be sitting there to be like, oh, I'm gonna rip
[3:20] Speaker 3: a Milly real quick, and then you know, just be
[3:22] Speaker 3: just tilting in the middle of Cinderella's castle or something.
[3:26] Speaker 2: Was literally just about Cinderell go the way someone's Yeah,
[3:31] Speaker 2: i'd be.
[3:32] Speaker 3: I'd be going up to all the different characters asking
[3:34] Speaker 3: them who their highest exposed players are and such. You
[3:36] Speaker 3: know what what Peter Peter Pan is probably uh now
[3:40] Speaker 3: he's got to go like he's I bet you Peter
[3:41] Speaker 3: Pan's like really into Tank Dell.
[3:43] Speaker 1: Small in stature, Yeah, yeah.
[3:45] Speaker 3: Small and stature like you know Underdog story. Yeah, he's got.
[3:49] Speaker 3: Peter Pan loves love some Tank Dell. I need some
[3:51] Speaker 3: all right, we need some comps in the comments for
[3:54] Speaker 3: Disney character to their highest exposed player. We need to hear.
[3:58] Speaker 3: We need to hear more of that that was just
[3:59] Speaker 3: off the done. Yeah, where there might be at one.
[4:02] Speaker 3: Yeah it might be a better Peter Pan one. But
[4:04] Speaker 3: all right, I want to first dig into some of
[4:07] Speaker 3: the stuff that I've been doing recently in drafts before
[4:11] Speaker 3: we get to some risers and followers, because there's some
[4:13] Speaker 3: really interesting risers and followers this week with camp the
[4:16] Speaker 3: way that it is and injuries and such. But first
[4:19] Speaker 3: I want to talk about two things. The first thing
[4:22] Speaker 3: is I'm leveling out exposures. Like I said last week,
[4:25] Speaker 3: you know, I'm trying to make sure that you know,
[4:28] Speaker 3: like I said, like a base h'all Tutin versus a
[4:30] Speaker 3: David Montgomery. If I like Tutin a little bit more
[4:34] Speaker 3: than Montgomery, or like in the same tier, which is
[4:36] Speaker 3: where I think things are going to be in my
[4:38] Speaker 3: next rankings update, there's no reason why more than likely
[4:41] Speaker 3: I should have an insane stand on Tutin versus Montgomery.
[4:45] Speaker 3: You know, like I'm trying to be realistic and recognize
[4:49] Speaker 3: those probability, you know, shifts in the way that I
[4:52] Speaker 3: view these guys. So I've been doing that a little
[4:53] Speaker 3: bit more, you know, getting guys like DJ Moore, getting
[4:55] Speaker 3: guys like Quinnchot Judkins. So I'm not at two percent
[4:58] Speaker 3: more at like the fodest percent range with some of
[5:01] Speaker 3: these guys. But the other thing that I've been really
[5:03] Speaker 3: focused on, and this is something I feel like this
[5:05] Speaker 3: has been a theme for me and like an awakening
[5:09] Speaker 3: for me this summer is CLV and just thinking about
[5:13] Speaker 3: that closing line value. And by the way, I got
[5:16] Speaker 3: a couple questions for people of like what CLV is
[5:18] Speaker 3: just closing line value. So it's just you know, looking
[5:21] Speaker 3: at where you drafted a player versus where that player
[5:23] Speaker 3: is generally being drafted. You you'll be able to see
[5:25] Speaker 3: that obviously when things at the end of the season
[5:28] Speaker 3: a true close right, because the end of the draft
[5:31] Speaker 3: season will know exactly where their ADP lands. But you know,
[5:34] Speaker 3: your goal is to get good CLV. Aka, I drafted
[5:37] Speaker 3: Stefan Diggs a whole lot in rounds twelve and thirteen,
[5:40] Speaker 3: and now he's a round eight or nine guy, and
[5:41] Speaker 3: so that's really good value good CLV. I will say,
[5:44] Speaker 3: and I talked about this with our guest today, that
[5:47] Speaker 3: I think that CLV is probably a little bit overrated
[5:49] Speaker 3: in the best ball streets. I'm not to say that,
[5:52] Speaker 3: you know, you wouldn't want that really strong CLV. You
[5:54] Speaker 3: of course do want that, but you know, if that's
[5:57] Speaker 3: the guy you need, that's the guy you need, period.
[5:59] Speaker 3: I don't want to like overstate it and miss out
[6:02] Speaker 3: on guys and then all of a sudden have to
[6:04] Speaker 3: like fade a player completely because his cost gets too high.
[6:07] Speaker 3: So if any of you guys like didn't get Stephan Diggs,
[6:09] Speaker 3: then go after Stephan Digstill, I think it's okay. But
[6:12] Speaker 3: if you really want to play the CLV game and
[6:15] Speaker 3: you are a little bit concerned about how little exposure
[6:18] Speaker 3: you have to Malik Neighbors or Stefan Diggs, find contests
[6:22] Speaker 3: and there are contests out there, but find contests that
[6:25] Speaker 3: opened recently that have only been around for a week
[6:27] Speaker 3: or two at most. And that way you know that
[6:30] Speaker 3: no one in that contest was getting the league Neighbors
[6:32] Speaker 3: in round four or Stefan Diggs most of the time
[6:35] Speaker 3: in round twelve or thirteen, Whereas you know, the Millie
[6:38] Speaker 3: is one that's been going on since May, and so
[6:40] Speaker 3: you have valuations of these players all over the place,
[6:43] Speaker 3: you know, and so there's more, you know, a higher
[6:45] Speaker 3: likelihood of that CLV. So I've been you know, doing
[6:47] Speaker 3: a lot of the uh other contests on DraftKings. You know,
[6:50] Speaker 3: I've done the new fifty nine dollars because they opened
[6:53] Speaker 3: that one up recently. You know, there's some other contests too.
[6:56] Speaker 3: I'm doing a lot of slows right now just to
[6:58] Speaker 3: you know, up my my general volume of Best Ball drafts.
[7:02] Speaker 3: But it's something to think about for people who you know,
[7:05] Speaker 3: might be a little bit discouraged after some news happens,
[7:08] Speaker 3: or like you got a lot of Ricky Pierson now
[7:09] Speaker 3: and you didn't get enough design shribbling, and just doing
[7:12] Speaker 3: that to get that exposure. It's a really easy way
[7:15] Speaker 3: to do so, and it's it's to me a way
[7:17] Speaker 3: to mitigate that bank roll a little bit.
[7:19] Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely, where it gets difficult is especially early on
[7:22] Speaker 2: in the process when people are trying to not predict
[7:25] Speaker 2: but make bets where they're going to have positive CLV.
[7:29] Speaker 2: A lot of that will come down to some of
[7:30] Speaker 2: the free agents, right there are people that are holding
[7:33] Speaker 2: Tyreek Hill and Brandon I Youk bags, and there's also
[7:36] Speaker 2: people that might be holding rookie bags, guys that they
[7:38] Speaker 2: hope to win jobs, or crowded backfields where you're taking
[7:43] Speaker 2: late round flyers on players that you would hope to
[7:45] Speaker 2: get positive camp news and then close somewhere in the
[7:48] Speaker 2: late single digits something like that. So yeah, it's it's
[7:50] Speaker 2: a treacherous game. And to your point, how much are
[7:53] Speaker 2: you really getting out of CLV if you get that
[7:57] Speaker 2: round surplus in your bag? But that guy, it's just
[8:00] Speaker 2: like that Verache flare on the.
[8:02] Speaker 3: Season right right, Yeah, you know if Moleague neighbors is
[8:06] Speaker 3: actually bad this year for whatever, or you know, like
[8:08] Speaker 3: doesn't live up to like it's possible. And then all
[8:10] Speaker 3: of a sudden, you know, you're sitting there like, oh,
[8:11] Speaker 3: I got all this CLV and it really didn't matter
[8:13] Speaker 3: that much in the end.
[8:14] Speaker 4: Right.
[8:15] Speaker 3: It's kind of the way that I felt about Jacory
[8:17] Speaker 3: Krofsky merrit last year, right where I was pumped because
[8:21] Speaker 3: I got a lot of JCM in rounds eighteen through
[8:24] Speaker 3: twenty last year, and then you know all this, you know,
[8:26] Speaker 3: Brian Robinson gets traded, all this stuff starts happening, and
[8:29] Speaker 3: then he's like a ninth round pick by the end
[8:31] Speaker 3: of the summer, and I'm like, oh, yeah, this is great.
[8:34] Speaker 3: And don't get me wrong, like he had big weeks
[8:36] Speaker 3: and he had some at the right time too, but
[8:38] Speaker 3: it wasn't like he was this league winning player, you know.
[8:40] Speaker 3: It wasn't like this was a guy that was finding
[8:42] Speaker 3: your lineup consistently week in and week out, and so
[8:45] Speaker 3: it didn't matter that much in the end. So keep
[8:47] Speaker 3: that in mind that these guys are not locks to
[8:50] Speaker 3: do well just because they're ADP's risen.
[8:52] Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a joke in the gambling space, which is
[8:55] Speaker 2: our CLV comes from, is that you can't feed your
[8:57] Speaker 2: family in CLV TV comes from Like let's say I
[9:01] Speaker 2: bet a dog at plus seven and the line moves
[9:03] Speaker 2: to six and a half. Like, I have tremendous value
[9:06] Speaker 2: in having that plus seven when the line has moved
[9:08] Speaker 2: to six and a half, but I still need them
[9:10] Speaker 2: to cover that seven in order to And that's in
[9:13] Speaker 2: a very I mean, we're talking about NFL game scores.
[9:16] Speaker 2: That's like a very narrow, finite level of outcomes where
[9:20] Speaker 2: those numbers have a ton more value than in bestball,
[9:23] Speaker 2: where we have just such a wide swath of variants
[9:27] Speaker 2: that can hit all this.
[9:28] Speaker 3: There's nineteen other players on your team that are going
[9:31] Speaker 3: to impact things.
[9:32] Speaker 5: You know.
[9:32] Speaker 3: That's a great that's a great thing to bring up.
[9:34] Speaker 3: Like with a line, it's literally just like, oh, this
[9:36] Speaker 3: is one outcome. One thing is determining whether I win
[9:40] Speaker 3: or lose this bet, Whereas with best ball, the bet
[9:43] Speaker 3: is a one out of twenty player on your team.
[9:46] Speaker 3: You know, where even if that player does really well
[9:48] Speaker 3: or doesn't do well, it might not even matter because
[9:51] Speaker 3: of what else is going on on that roster.
[9:53] Speaker 2: And you bring in pod luck and all that, Like
[9:56] Speaker 2: it is such a small data point in the massive
[10:00] Speaker 2: of data field that is the entire outcome.
[10:02] Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, let's talk about some risers and followers.
[10:04] Speaker 3: I'll just kick it off because you you pulled some
[10:06] Speaker 3: data together for this, and I think Stephan Diggs is
[10:09] Speaker 3: the obvious place to start. This is from the last
[10:11] Speaker 3: two weeks, the rising and falling.
[10:13] Speaker 1: This is from a last week eight four, so one
[10:16] Speaker 1: week okay, okay.
[10:17] Speaker 3: Yeah, so about the last week. So Stephan Diggs is
[10:20] Speaker 3: the biggest riser. He's now what like a round nine
[10:23] Speaker 3: type player over on DK. I still think that that's undervalued,
[10:27] Speaker 3: and so if you are trying to get Digs, I
[10:29] Speaker 3: still think it's fine to draft Digs. I have him
[10:32] Speaker 3: ranked and that you know, this is season long, of course,
[10:34] Speaker 3: but it does transfer over. But like I have Digs
[10:38] Speaker 3: kind of in that like Michael Pittman, Chris Godwin. I'm
[10:41] Speaker 3: higher on Pittman than than most probably versus DK Metcalf
[10:45] Speaker 3: because I think Pittman could just outscore him completely. But
[10:47] Speaker 3: they're all in the same tier for me, you know,
[10:49] Speaker 3: like Chris Godwin goes in round seven, DK Metcalf goes
[10:52] Speaker 3: in round seven on DK I have Stefan Diggs above Well,
[10:56] Speaker 3: it's pretty easy to say it now, but like Alec Pierce,
[10:59] Speaker 3: Makayla Lemon would be drafting digs over. I think that
[11:02] Speaker 3: Wanda Robinson I'd still be taking digs over And I
[11:05] Speaker 3: like Wandell this year, but this is a really good
[11:08] Speaker 3: situation for him overall where he can play inside out.
[11:10] Speaker 3: He's going to be the number two target there. It
[11:12] Speaker 3: sucks that Tunsel is now out for the year. I
[11:15] Speaker 3: think that's a huge, huge blow to that offense in general,
[11:18] Speaker 3: but I still think that Diggs is someone that you
[11:20] Speaker 3: guys can be targeting.
[11:21] Speaker 2: Yeah, and Diggs, I mean, he's just so talented around
[11:24] Speaker 2: the ball. It reminds me of mid to late DeAndre
[11:27] Speaker 2: Hopkins in that just his quality and skill is it's
[11:31] Speaker 2: just gonna it's kind of timeless, right, Like the athleticism
[11:35] Speaker 2: could dip a little bit, but his ability to be open,
[11:38] Speaker 2: catch the football, move the chains, it's just going to
[11:40] Speaker 2: be one that is valuable for Washington.
[11:43] Speaker 1: So yeah, I anticipate him playing a pretty big role
[11:45] Speaker 1: for that off.
[11:46] Speaker 3: Pat Bryant is getting a lot of steam out of
[11:48] Speaker 3: Denver right now, and that's really what this rise in
[11:50] Speaker 3: ADP is showing I've liked Pat Bryant more than Troy Franklin.
[11:55] Speaker 3: I mean I liked him more than Franklin even last year.
[11:58] Speaker 3: You know, like towards the end of the season, I
[12:00] Speaker 3: was a little bit fearful of Franklin. Post year one.
[12:03] Speaker 3: Bryant was a fine enough prospect, maybe not elite, but
[12:06] Speaker 3: was a solid enough guy who I thought was like
[12:09] Speaker 3: the standard Sean Payton, big slot type player.
[12:12] Speaker 5: You know.
[12:12] Speaker 3: It's similar to like a guy that came out this year,
[12:15] Speaker 3: Elijah Surrat had a Pat Bryant comp actually, and I
[12:18] Speaker 3: was like, you know, I remember texting Matt Harmon, who
[12:20] Speaker 3: obviously does a lot of work with wide receivers, saying like,
[12:22] Speaker 3: if only Denver needed a you know, big slot because
[12:25] Speaker 3: Elijah Surat could just play that role. But Pat Bryant's
[12:28] Speaker 3: getting a lot of love. There's talk about him moving
[12:30] Speaker 3: to the outside more and maybe even you know, taking
[12:33] Speaker 3: over for Courtland Sutton at some point. I'll say it again.
[12:36] Speaker 3: I said it last week on the show, and you know,
[12:38] Speaker 3: there were some comments about this. Cortland Sutton to me
[12:41] Speaker 3: is just one of the weirdest players that people in
[12:44] Speaker 3: fantasy football get attached to I will never understand it.
[12:48] Speaker 3: It's different in Best Ball, so you know there is
[12:50] Speaker 3: a Best Ball show. I don't want to take it
[12:52] Speaker 3: too far. Yes he has spike week ability. Yes he
[12:54] Speaker 3: can score multiple touchdowns and given week because of his
[12:56] Speaker 3: size and stuff, we're on the wrong side of the
[12:58] Speaker 3: age curve with him. He's ever been a consistent, like
[13:02] Speaker 3: top twenty wide receiver. You're really not shooting for a
[13:04] Speaker 3: ceiling when you're drafting him. Oh and by the way,
[13:07] Speaker 3: now they have Pat Bryant, but they also traded for
[13:09] Speaker 3: Jalen Waddle, So you know, I have not really been
[13:11] Speaker 3: clicking Courtland Sutton that often. I've clicked Pat Bryant quite
[13:15] Speaker 3: a bit, even with his like, you know, if you're
[13:17] Speaker 3: getting him around, you know, I mean this says that
[13:19] Speaker 3: he's still like eighteen and ADP. But I'll see him
[13:21] Speaker 3: in a round sixteen even. I have no problem with
[13:24] Speaker 3: that because it's so flat once you get past like
[13:26] Speaker 3: round thirteen in these drafts. So if you want to
[13:29] Speaker 3: get Pat Bryan, if you want exposure, I don't think
[13:31] Speaker 3: it's a bad idea to still click his name, you know,
[13:33] Speaker 3: in round fourteen. In round fifteen, decent prospect a lot
[13:37] Speaker 3: of steam. He can at least play the slot in
[13:39] Speaker 3: that offense. And you know, I'm not sold on on
[13:42] Speaker 3: Courtland Sutton, and I like the offense in generally, and
[13:44] Speaker 3: it's an offense that I think we can buy into.
[13:46] Speaker 2: Pat Bryant up fifteen slots just like Elijah Surat's fellow
[13:51] Speaker 2: rookie AFC North player.
[13:54] Speaker 1: Then Ze Boston on fifteen spots. I fit that transition
[13:57] Speaker 1: in there.
[14:00] Speaker 3: Which you're killing me. I thought you were going. I
[14:02] Speaker 3: thought for sure you're gonna talk about like Jacobe Lane
[14:04] Speaker 3: and I'm like, wait a second, and you and then
[14:06] Speaker 3: you pivot to my gosh, so many layers there, Denzel Boston.
[14:15] Speaker 1: Yeah.
[14:16] Speaker 3: Look, I have seen some drafts where people have reached
[14:20] Speaker 3: for Boston above Casey Conceptsion, And to me, that's a
[14:24] Speaker 3: big mistake because I think Conceptsion is very good, an
[14:29] Speaker 3: incredibly good prospect. Early declare solid enough breakout scorer, got
[14:33] Speaker 3: work in different facets of the game, not just a
[14:37] Speaker 3: receiver but as a rusher as well, which gets a
[14:39] Speaker 3: little bit of a boost in the zap model too.
[14:43] Speaker 3: You know, I think Conceptsion is just a really good
[14:45] Speaker 3: prospect and player I've seen the comp thrown around that
[14:48] Speaker 3: I think is kind of interesting that, like Conceptsion in
[14:50] Speaker 3: the way that his ADP is formulating right now reminds
[14:52] Speaker 3: them of Garrett Wilson his rookie season, where environmentally it
[14:56] Speaker 3: looked horrible, but the player himself is really good. Garret
[14:59] Speaker 3: Wilson's about prospect than Casey Conceptsion, So let's let's at
[15:02] Speaker 3: least throw that out there. But I think Conceptcion's really good.
[15:05] Speaker 3: Like the ZAP model. If you guys, you know, read
[15:07] Speaker 3: the Prospect Guide this year, Conceptsion was very very close
[15:11] Speaker 3: in ZAB scored to Mikayle Lemon, whereas Carnel Tate and
[15:14] Speaker 3: Jordan Tyson were like the clear alphas in this class.
[15:18] Speaker 3: There was a gap to mkaya Lemon and Casey conceptsi
[15:21] Speaker 3: On and Jordan Tyson was was the you know, he
[15:23] Speaker 3: had that he had scored like ninety six and the model.
[15:26] Speaker 3: The model absolutely adored Jordan Tyson. But yeah, Denzel Boston,
[15:30] Speaker 3: I think can be you know, he is a better
[15:32] Speaker 3: and best ball type player for me. You know, he's
[15:34] Speaker 3: definitely a red zone threat. He's gonna have some spiked
[15:36] Speaker 3: weeks in there. I think it's fine if you want
[15:38] Speaker 3: to draft him. I'm just saying, hey, caution, don't get silly,
[15:42] Speaker 3: and in my opinion from a process standpoint, start drafting
[15:46] Speaker 3: him over Conceptsion because Conceptsion is still very good even
[15:48] Speaker 3: though Boston's getting more hype. Sometimes these players get more
[15:51] Speaker 3: hype simply based on what was expected of them going
[15:54] Speaker 3: into camp, and if they're exceeding those expectations by a
[15:58] Speaker 3: whole lot, these beats get really really excited about what
[16:02] Speaker 3: they're about, even though in comparison to what's already there,
[16:05] Speaker 3: or you know, the player like Concepcion who is supposed
[16:08] Speaker 3: to be GOO because he's the first round, or even
[16:09] Speaker 3: though Boston had a good draft capital too. You know,
[16:12] Speaker 3: there are some instances where it's just versus like expected
[16:16] Speaker 3: and expectation. So I would still be drafting Conceptsion well
[16:19] Speaker 3: ahead of Denzel Boston. But I think Boston's fine once
[16:22] Speaker 3: you get into that, Like, you know, I know that
[16:23] Speaker 3: he's more round thirteen right now. It's fine enough. I'd
[16:26] Speaker 3: rather be round fourteen, round fifteen with him, but it's
[16:29] Speaker 3: not the end of the world if you want to
[16:30] Speaker 3: go that direction.
[16:31] Speaker 2: It's unsurprising based on that archetypes that Boston might be
[16:34] Speaker 2: looking better in shorts. I know padded practices have started,
[16:37] Speaker 2: but just that style of player, big guy, strong fella.
[16:41] Speaker 2: We know Casey butters his bread after the catch, very
[16:44] Speaker 2: good breaking tackle, stuff like that. So that's the type
[16:47] Speaker 2: of skill set that we're just not going to see
[16:50] Speaker 2: in August. Maybe in the preseason, maybe as game start,
[16:53] Speaker 2: but not right now. All right, let's go to should
[16:57] Speaker 2: I. I was gonna say the North. I'm already saying at
[16:59] Speaker 2: the North.
[17:00] Speaker 3: The other conference was going, I want, I want to
[17:02] Speaker 3: hear how you get take Denzel Boston to this next guy.
[17:04] Speaker 1: Let's hear it the North in the other conference.
[17:07] Speaker 2: It's the running back playing behind a fellow who, according
[17:10] Speaker 2: to Adam Schefter recording this today on Tuesday, might be
[17:13] Speaker 2: hit with some sort of suspension.
[17:15] Speaker 1: We'll wait to see. It's Marshall Lloyd.
[17:18] Speaker 3: Yeah. Look when when Lloyd came out, you know, this
[17:21] Speaker 3: is why I love having the prospect guys, because I
[17:23] Speaker 3: can go back and at least read the blurbs and
[17:25] Speaker 3: read what I was thinking about these players as they
[17:27] Speaker 3: were coming out. And Marshawn Lloyd had a very complimentary
[17:29] Speaker 3: type profile. He was not a player that profiled as
[17:33] Speaker 3: the one A in his backfield, as you know, in
[17:35] Speaker 3: a normal backfield, I think if there's an injury or
[17:37] Speaker 3: something like, he'd be fine. But he's not someone that
[17:40] Speaker 3: more than likely would carry a massive workload. He's just
[17:43] Speaker 3: really explosive and a good complimentary player from that perspective.
[17:46] Speaker 3: And so you have him being healthy. I think that
[17:49] Speaker 3: he can still play all three downs and you know,
[17:51] Speaker 3: be a quality player from that perspective. So I think
[17:55] Speaker 3: that where he's going right now, like this is one
[17:57] Speaker 3: of those like CLV instances where like it does not
[17:59] Speaker 3: matter if you did not get Marshaon Lloyd in the
[18:02] Speaker 3: twentieth round or the nineteenth round back in June, and
[18:05] Speaker 3: now you have to spend a fifteenth rounder to get Lloyd. Well,
[18:08] Speaker 3: you waited. I think it was actually kind of smart
[18:10] Speaker 3: because you waited enough time to see if he was
[18:11] Speaker 3: going to be healthy, to see how things looked in camp,
[18:14] Speaker 3: because we know that so far into an NFL career,
[18:16] Speaker 3: he just walked onto a field and seemingly, you know,
[18:19] Speaker 3: pulled a hammy, and so you see that he's healthy.
[18:22] Speaker 3: You see this this stuff going on with Josh Jacobs.
[18:24] Speaker 3: You know, obviously you could have thrown some darts whenever
[18:26] Speaker 3: the stuff was really happening with Josh Jacobs. But he's
[18:28] Speaker 3: still a round fifteen guy. You know, He's still someone
[18:31] Speaker 3: that you can get and acquire very very easily. So
[18:33] Speaker 3: I am in on Marshawn Lloyd. Not only that, but
[18:36] Speaker 3: it's an offense that we know historically with Mike Laflour
[18:39] Speaker 3: has been or Matt Laflour. My gosh, now that there's
[18:41] Speaker 3: two of them, this is going to be really bad,
[18:44] Speaker 3: but we know that then under Lafloor, they've been a
[18:46] Speaker 3: top half offense every year in touchdowns per game. I
[18:48] Speaker 3: always throw that stat out there because it just tells
[18:50] Speaker 3: you that it's an offense that we can feel good about.
[18:52] Speaker 2: We are excited about Malik Willis is here because of Lafloor. Right,
[18:57] Speaker 2: that guy was left for ten ten yeah, and went
[19:01] Speaker 2: to go play in the LA floor offense and is
[19:02] Speaker 2: now a guy that is making multiple millions of dollars
[19:05] Speaker 2: for the Dolphins, and we're excited about this year. So yeah,
[19:07] Speaker 2: I will definitely believe in LA Floor until I have
[19:10] Speaker 2: given evidence to to not do.
[19:12] Speaker 3: So.
[19:13] Speaker 2: We talked about some young receivers that were getting some hype,
[19:16] Speaker 2: but I think the leader in the hype train so
[19:19] Speaker 2: far this summer might be this guy in Kansas City
[19:23] Speaker 2: Sires sound.
[19:24] Speaker 3: Yeah, it's kind of crazy, man. You know, he was
[19:26] Speaker 3: someone that wasn't even in the Prospect Guide because he
[19:28] Speaker 3: wasn't at the combine, and then you know, I didn't
[19:31] Speaker 3: get to do a write up on him. I studied
[19:32] Speaker 3: him a little bit after the fact, didn't mind him,
[19:35] Speaker 3: but didn't think he was like the obvious Day three pick.
[19:38] Speaker 3: But oftentimes with Day three guys, from an analytical perspective,
[19:42] Speaker 3: there's not much rhyme or reason, especially a running back,
[19:44] Speaker 3: I mean running back for sure, where it's more so
[19:46] Speaker 3: about like that year's depth chart than anything else and
[19:50] Speaker 3: how those guys performed, Like look at like what he
[19:52] Speaker 3: marks last year. Who you know, Marx had a fine
[19:54] Speaker 3: enough profile, had a really good receiving profile. That's kind
[19:57] Speaker 3: of stuff I look for. But if you were to
[19:58] Speaker 3: start doing the matchings and trying to find trends for
[20:01] Speaker 3: Day three hits in general, it's not the easiest thing
[20:04] Speaker 3: in the world to do in this day and age.
[20:06] Speaker 3: If you look at history, there are definitely time I
[20:09] Speaker 3: mean like Aman Ross Saint Brown or Stefan Diggs, these
[20:12] Speaker 3: players like, you go back and you look and you're like,
[20:14] Speaker 3: how in the world were these guys not drafted on
[20:17] Speaker 3: at least day two, you know? And so I look
[20:20] Speaker 3: at Cyrus Allen and I don't see a profile where
[20:23] Speaker 3: I'm like, oh, this dude is an absolute monster. But
[20:26] Speaker 3: I will say his breakout score is a little bit
[20:29] Speaker 3: better than some of the other wide receivers that you
[20:31] Speaker 3: would typically see on Day three, And he does have
[20:34] Speaker 3: a profile that I do think would fit with what
[20:38] Speaker 3: the Chiefs need, which is a guy who can get
[20:40] Speaker 3: downfield and play all over the formation. He played a
[20:43] Speaker 3: lot in the slot in college, but a lot of
[20:45] Speaker 3: people believe that, you know, size could be a limitation.
[20:48] Speaker 3: For sure. He's only one hundred and eighty, so maybe
[20:50] Speaker 3: he won't be able to play on the perimeter that much.
[20:52] Speaker 3: And obviously Rashi Rice is already manning the slot in
[20:54] Speaker 3: Kansas City. But Rice isn't that much of a down
[20:56] Speaker 3: the field Thready's more of a yak threat, whereas Cyrus
[20:59] Speaker 3: Allen can stretch the field, and they've had that problem
[21:02] Speaker 3: in that offense for years now. I mean, Mahomes has
[21:04] Speaker 3: not been a good deep ball thrower. Let's just be
[21:06] Speaker 3: real about it like he's been well below average over
[21:08] Speaker 3: the last couple of years. I think some of it
[21:10] Speaker 3: is him, for sure. Some of it's also personnel, say,
[21:13] Speaker 3: if you're worthy hasn't worked out yet they have, you know,
[21:15] Speaker 3: they've been relying on They relied on Taekwon Thornton last year,
[21:18] Speaker 3: who was actually okay in that role. But if they
[21:21] Speaker 3: can get a guy who can move around the formation
[21:23] Speaker 3: a little bit more in Cyrus Allen, I think it
[21:25] Speaker 3: does make sense. So to me, he's fine as a click.
[21:28] Speaker 3: He's easier, I think in season long than in best ball,
[21:32] Speaker 3: just because you can drop him if things like, you know,
[21:34] Speaker 3: if he's only running you know, a route on twenty
[21:37] Speaker 3: percent of their dropbacks or something like that, which is
[21:39] Speaker 3: very possible to start the year. But I do think
[21:41] Speaker 3: that you can. You can click Alan right now because again,
[21:44] Speaker 3: once you get in that like round fifteen range, round fourteen,
[21:47] Speaker 3: even things are really flat at all positions.
[21:50] Speaker 2: You mentioned Makai Lemon briefly earlier, and his injury continues
[21:54] Speaker 2: to linger, which has seen Duntavian Wicks lift up two
[21:57] Speaker 2: rounds in on DraftKings.
[22:00] Speaker 3: Yeah, and Makai Lemon's been dropping a lot. I mean
[22:02] Speaker 3: David Kitchen did a draft where he grabbed him today,
[22:05] Speaker 3: I think at like in like round eleven of his draft.
[22:08] Speaker 3: And so I've actually gotten some criticism from people, not
[22:12] Speaker 3: criticism is too strong of a word, but like questions
[22:14] Speaker 3: about why I've been lower on Makay Lemon in my rankings.
[22:18] Speaker 3: And part of it is just kind of like math,
[22:20] Speaker 3: Like if you look at projections, you look at the
[22:21] Speaker 3: way things would be spread out around this offense, and
[22:25] Speaker 3: you know, it just doesn't work out as well as
[22:26] Speaker 3: you might think for Makay Lemon. But also he's been
[22:30] Speaker 3: hurt and now there's even more you know, injury related
[22:33] Speaker 3: stuff going on with him. Now there's reports happening where
[22:35] Speaker 3: they're saying that, you know, he's not going to start
[22:37] Speaker 3: the season as as a starter, and that it might
[22:40] Speaker 3: take some time for him to get acclimated and YadA YadA.
[22:42] Speaker 3: I think that's all very real. We see that every
[22:44] Speaker 3: single season where wide receivers, they don't just obj themselves
[22:48] Speaker 3: back into the starting lineup and start dominating. You know,
[22:50] Speaker 3: they got to get acclimated, they got to understand what
[22:52] Speaker 3: that offense is all about. And so with Philly, they
[22:56] Speaker 3: actually have an alternative, right now that they haven't had
[22:58] Speaker 3: in the past because they haven't had the depth at
[23:00] Speaker 3: all at wide receiver. But D'antavian Wis is showing up
[23:03] Speaker 3: in camp. He's had some random, spiked, like really high
[23:07] Speaker 3: efficiency seasons in Green Bay, hasn't been totally consistent, and
[23:11] Speaker 3: obviously he's had a lot of issues with like concentration
[23:15] Speaker 3: and being able to haul in balls. But when it
[23:18] Speaker 3: comes to like route running and ability to separate, that
[23:20] Speaker 3: hasn't really been a problem for Dantavian Wicks. And so
[23:23] Speaker 3: maybe he just needed to change of scenery and he
[23:26] Speaker 3: needed a spot where you know, he could be a
[23:28] Speaker 3: true number two behind DeVante Smith, not necessarily the focal
[23:31] Speaker 3: point in his offense. Wis is one of my highest
[23:34] Speaker 3: rostered or exposed wide receivers right now because I was
[23:36] Speaker 3: drafting him earlier. This because I was taking a lot
[23:38] Speaker 3: of Jalen Hurts makes sen Sure Hurts guy, Yeah, exactly right,
[23:41] Speaker 3: I had. I had a lot of Jalen Hurts and
[23:43] Speaker 3: Makai Lemon. I wasn't drafting as much as honestly I
[23:46] Speaker 3: probably should have been, but I just wasn't you know,
[23:48] Speaker 3: when he was where, you know where he was going
[23:51] Speaker 3: it's not like I have none. I think I'm at
[23:52] Speaker 3: like five percent Lemon or something like that. And then
[23:54] Speaker 3: Wis was just the guy that was, you know, deep
[23:57] Speaker 3: in round nineteen that nobody wanted it even though there
[24:00] Speaker 3: was a chance that he was going to be a starter.
[24:01] Speaker 3: And so I think that you can still be drafting him,
[24:04] Speaker 3: Like I'm still drafting him. I'm getting him in round sixteen,
[24:07] Speaker 3: round seventeen, round sixteen mostly at this point, but or
[24:11] Speaker 3: fifteen even But I think it's fine to take him
[24:13] Speaker 3: there because I do think he's going to play a role,
[24:15] Speaker 3: and he's flashed at times in the NFL. So I'm
[24:18] Speaker 3: in on Wicks.
[24:19] Speaker 2: The final one and maybe the most consequential one because
[24:22] Speaker 2: they're starting to see him creep to the top of
[24:25] Speaker 2: the fifth round.
[24:26] Speaker 3: Parker Washington, Yeah, man, I mean it's crazy that all
[24:30] Speaker 3: these risers I'm actually kind of fine with, Like there's
[24:33] Speaker 3: no one that I'm sitting here. I'm like, why is
[24:36] Speaker 3: this happening? Yeah, you shouldn't be drafting him, ashigh as
[24:38] Speaker 3: he's going because the opportunity cost isn't shifting enough in
[24:41] Speaker 3: my opinion for a lot of these guys, or you know,
[24:44] Speaker 3: like a guy like digs. I just think he's still undervalued.
[24:47] Speaker 3: Parker Washington is now going where he probably should be going,
[24:50] Speaker 3: you know, like that's where I'm at. If you want
[24:52] Speaker 3: to take him in round five, middle of round five,
[24:54] Speaker 3: I think it's fine. There's so many positive like we're
[24:58] Speaker 3: getting confirmation slash, we're getting real, tangible, you know, ideas.
[25:02] Speaker 3: At the very least, maybe they're not concrete and maybe
[25:04] Speaker 3: they're not definitively going to happen, but there are legitimate
[25:08] Speaker 3: reports out there saying that Parker Washington is going to
[25:10] Speaker 3: be the wide receiver that does not leave the field.
[25:12] Speaker 3: And I'll tell you what he was doing. What he
[25:14] Speaker 3: was doing last year on like an eighty you know,
[25:16] Speaker 3: seventy to eighty percent route share in that offense, not
[25:19] Speaker 3: even and he was still dominating and giving you, you know,
[25:22] Speaker 3: great fantasy production. Imagine a world where that is upped
[25:26] Speaker 3: even further. You know, like he's he's a good, good player.
[25:30] Speaker 3: And there's a lot of trends historically that when you
[25:33] Speaker 3: look at the highly efficient maybe lower you know, volume
[25:36] Speaker 3: or point per game players across the season, they tend
[25:39] Speaker 3: to do well versus ADP expectation the following year that's
[25:42] Speaker 3: also a Luther Burden and Terry McLaurin thing as well
[25:44] Speaker 3: for this year. But I've had Washington and Brian Thomas.
[25:48] Speaker 3: Like if you looked at, you know, my rankings in
[25:50] Speaker 3: July or something, I had always had Washington like one
[25:52] Speaker 3: spot ahead and then over, you know, with with the
[25:55] Speaker 3: camp Pipe and the way that I've thought about this
[25:58] Speaker 3: offense more, the way they're talking about this offense more,
[26:01] Speaker 3: the more I'm just like, I think Parker Washington is
[26:03] Speaker 3: a really really legit player, you know, like where it
[26:06] Speaker 3: makes sense. You know, I'm trying to think of what's
[26:09] Speaker 3: most rational for these teams, and what's most rational for
[26:13] Speaker 3: Jacksonville is to keep Parker Washington on the field and
[26:16] Speaker 3: to continue to run that offense the way they ran
[26:18] Speaker 3: it during the second half of last year when they
[26:20] Speaker 3: were the third best team in football and touchdowns per game.
[26:22] Speaker 3: You know, like, I don't know why you would want
[26:24] Speaker 3: to shift that and change that up when it was
[26:26] Speaker 3: working for you. Despite drafting a blocking tight end in
[26:29] Speaker 3: round two and you know, Tanner Coziel in round five
[26:31] Speaker 3: or whatever it was. I don't think this is going
[26:33] Speaker 3: to all of a sudden be a heavy twelve team.
[26:36] Speaker 3: But even if it is, I think Parker Washington can
[26:37] Speaker 3: still find the field. And then the other thing that
[26:39] Speaker 3: does it for me too is that when you dig
[26:42] Speaker 3: into his profile more number one, he actually wasn't that
[26:44] Speaker 3: bad of a prospect. I went back, I just I
[26:47] Speaker 3: gotta just like and I started doing it this year
[26:50] Speaker 3: a lot more. But I just got to hand it
[26:52] Speaker 3: to the ZAPP model and let it do its thing,
[26:55] Speaker 3: because anytime I disagree with the APP model, it bites
[26:58] Speaker 3: me in the butt. And that was what happened with
[26:59] Speaker 3: park Washington. That was back in the day when I
[27:02] Speaker 3: published draft capital delta as a pure number form. I
[27:05] Speaker 3: don't do that anymore. I do low risk, high risk,
[27:08] Speaker 3: or neutral draft profiles. So draft capital delta being how
[27:11] Speaker 3: the model views a player versus where his draft capital
[27:14] Speaker 3: was right in percentile form. So back in the day,
[27:17] Speaker 3: ZAP scores were just by percentile and then I look
[27:20] Speaker 3: at the draft capital percentile and the difference between those
[27:23] Speaker 3: two things was draft capital delta. Parker Washington in a
[27:26] Speaker 3: draft capital delta of plus fourteen percent, which means he
[27:30] Speaker 3: was way way underdrafted. And then in the profile, I'm like, yeah,
[27:34] Speaker 3: the AP model is probably overstating it's like, no, I
[27:36] Speaker 3: think the AP model is actually just right the whole
[27:38] Speaker 3: time about Parker Washington, you know, and I just, you know,
[27:40] Speaker 3: like that's it's just one of those things where early
[27:43] Speaker 3: on it was a lot harder to like latch on to,
[27:46] Speaker 3: you know, because I hadn't published that stuff, you know,
[27:49] Speaker 3: to the masses before in that way. And the more
[27:52] Speaker 3: I've done it, the more I'm just like, you know what,
[27:53] Speaker 3: I'm not even gonna question this thing anymore. The robots know,
[27:56] Speaker 3: you know, the algorithm knows what it's doing at this point,
[27:59] Speaker 3: and so I think he was a good prospect too
[28:01] Speaker 3: in hindsight, sure, but also what the model was saying.
[28:04] Speaker 3: So to me, it's all coming together for Washington to
[28:07] Speaker 3: be a pretty legit player. And by the way, I
[28:09] Speaker 3: just got to throw it out there. I know it's
[28:10] Speaker 3: a Best Ball podcast, but in season long leagues he's
[28:14] Speaker 3: like an eighth or ninth round pick on some platforms.
[28:16] Speaker 3: So if you're in a season long league, just make
[28:20] Speaker 3: sure you're hyper targeting Parker Washington. He's probably gonna be
[28:22] Speaker 3: a huge value.
[28:23] Speaker 2: Bill Simmons has the Rewatchables. You might have a spring
[28:26] Speaker 2: series called like the Redraftable, so the reprospectables or something
[28:30] Speaker 2: where you crack it open yeah five years later or something.
[28:33] Speaker 3: I think it would be fun to do, Yeah, to
[28:35] Speaker 3: do like a live stream or something and go through
[28:37] Speaker 3: prospect guides of years past and just be like, what
[28:40] Speaker 3: was I thinking doing this?
[28:42] Speaker 1: Or like what?
[28:42] Speaker 3: Cause like there's some where I read the a Mecca
[28:45] Speaker 3: Buca blurb or you know, profile from last year and
[28:49] Speaker 3: it couldn't have been more right, you know, like like
[28:51] Speaker 3: talking about Mike Evans being gone this year, talking about
[28:54] Speaker 3: how he's not just a slot player a Mecca Buca
[28:57] Speaker 3: and like, I'm so proud of that blurb. And then
[29:00] Speaker 3: there's some where I'm like, what were you know, like
[29:02] Speaker 3: the Parker Washington one, What in the world are you
[29:04] Speaker 3: thinking writing this? You know, like why are you not
[29:06] Speaker 3: leaning into the things that you know you should be
[29:08] Speaker 3: leaning into?
[29:09] Speaker 1: You got to the w's and the gods and you know,
[29:11] Speaker 1: like com over.
[29:12] Speaker 3: Yeah yeah I should yeah yeah, Cliff, yeah exactly. I
[29:16] Speaker 3: do think that it's interesting content at least to just
[29:18] Speaker 3: like go back see what you were thinking, and you know,
[29:20] Speaker 3: and I feel that way about my rankings too, where
[29:22] Speaker 3: I'm just like, why was I not more you know,
[29:25] Speaker 3: I was actually well above market with like Luther Burden
[29:27] Speaker 3: and stuff like why was I not more aggressive with that?
[29:30] Speaker 3: Or why was I not more aggressive, you know, in
[29:32] Speaker 3: the way that I was ranking these guys based on
[29:34] Speaker 3: what the ZAP model is saying. And I tried to
[29:35] Speaker 3: do it a little bit more this year, But the
[29:37] Speaker 3: problem was this year, this year's class, you couldn't really
[29:40] Speaker 3: do it because there was such a flatness to the
[29:42] Speaker 3: wide receivers, where like, I'm not going to be surprised
[29:45] Speaker 3: if design stribbling is that the third best wide out
[29:47] Speaker 3: in this class, or if you know, if we see
[29:49] Speaker 3: Caleb Douglas be okay enough. You know, I just think
[29:52] Speaker 3: there weren't many good wide receivers in general. So I
[29:55] Speaker 3: know that we went on a little little tangent there,
[29:57] Speaker 3: but I do think that it's you know, it's an
[29:58] Speaker 3: interesting topic to think about as it pertains the best
[30:00] Speaker 3: ball too.
[30:01] Speaker 2: And we only got two followers because we already mentioned
[30:04] Speaker 2: rookie receiver Makai Lemons. Let's talk about a couple of
[30:07] Speaker 2: tight ends. One a rookie from my fighting New York Jets,
[30:11] Speaker 2: Kenyan Sadik down two rounds after a complication after his
[30:16] Speaker 2: hernia surgery. You had been drafting Sadik. Where are you
[30:20] Speaker 2: at now with this injury?
[30:22] Speaker 3: I feel like Wolf of Wall Street right now, I'm
[30:25] Speaker 3: not leaving. I'm just I'm just drafting them. I can't
[30:29] Speaker 3: stop drafting Kenyan Sadik. I don't know, man. You can
[30:32] Speaker 3: tell me if I'm a moron, because you're way more
[30:34] Speaker 3: tapped into the Jets than I am. But to me,
[30:38] Speaker 3: it's just this simple equation of very good prospect. Say
[30:42] Speaker 3: what you want. You know, you can look at his flaws.
[30:45] Speaker 3: I get it, I understand, But objectively, a very good
[30:48] Speaker 3: prospect mid round one pick a lead athleticism in an
[30:52] Speaker 3: offense that features tight ends. We know that with Frank Reich,
[30:55] Speaker 3: I mean, Frank Reich has glowed about having Kenyan Cidek
[31:00] Speaker 3: on his team. Could this linger? Sure? But I'm trying
[31:03] Speaker 3: to not fall into the trap that I fell into
[31:05] Speaker 3: last year at times. You know, I had a good,
[31:06] Speaker 3: best ball season, but like there were times where like
[31:09] Speaker 3: I got really hyped up about like Ali Gordon because
[31:11] Speaker 3: Devon h Chan had this calf strain or whatever, and
[31:15] Speaker 3: it didn't matter at all, you know, And I'm trying
[31:17] Speaker 3: to not fall victim to that kind of thing right now.
[31:21] Speaker 3: Luther Burden's the same way where it's like I'm still
[31:23] Speaker 3: kind of drafting him at the discount that I'm getting.
[31:25] Speaker 3: You know, I got him in round five earlier. You know,
[31:27] Speaker 3: I'm mostly waiting to round five because I'm out like
[31:29] Speaker 3: twenty percent Burdens. He's probably my highest exposed, like early
[31:32] Speaker 3: round player right now, and so I am being cautious
[31:35] Speaker 3: of that. I don't want to be too overweight, you know,
[31:38] Speaker 3: et cetera, et cetera. But at the same time, I
[31:40] Speaker 3: don't want to overstate what these early season injuries might
[31:44] Speaker 3: be when the timeline points to them coming back. Alec Pierce,
[31:47] Speaker 3: that whole situation is different in my opinion. You know,
[31:50] Speaker 3: that's like there's some really weird stuff going on with
[31:53] Speaker 3: what's going on with Alec Pierce because they gave us
[31:55] Speaker 3: a timetable.
[31:56] Speaker 1: That he's over correct.
[31:59] Speaker 3: What's so right, Whereas the Kenyan Sadik thing was Okay,
[32:03] Speaker 3: he came back, he came back too quickly, seemingly, and
[32:07] Speaker 3: now he's nursing this thing again, this sport turnia thing,
[32:10] Speaker 3: and maybe he gets off to a slow start. But
[32:12] Speaker 3: to me, there's still a very real scenario where Kenyan
[32:14] Speaker 3: Sidik is a very reliable player in fantasy as we
[32:18] Speaker 3: get into like week four, week five, and as we
[32:20] Speaker 3: get through the season. So if I'm going to a
[32:22] Speaker 3: discount on him, I mean I've gotten him. I know
[32:24] Speaker 3: his ADP's around like round fifteen right now, or so
[32:26] Speaker 3: I've gotten him in round seventeen now, Like that's where
[32:29] Speaker 3: he consistently goes. And I'm like, I just have a
[32:31] Speaker 3: hard time in a non stacking environment taking Caid freaking
[32:36] Speaker 3: out in or Kolby Parkinson or something over Kenyan Sadik.
[32:40] Speaker 3: You know, like if it burns me, it burns me.
[32:42] Speaker 3: But I'm also going with a lot of three tight
[32:44] Speaker 3: end builds and that makes a lot easier, probably feel
[32:47] Speaker 3: a little bit different if it was a two tight
[32:48] Speaker 3: end environment. But That's where I'm at with Sadik. Tell
[32:51] Speaker 3: me that I'm not a moron.
[32:52] Speaker 2: Well, and you said this a lot recently on a
[32:55] Speaker 2: lot of shows about how successful first round rookies, rookie
[32:59] Speaker 2: tight end specific they have been in recent history. The
[33:02] Speaker 2: way the NFL has been turning, I will say that
[33:04] Speaker 2: Jets are treating the Damzela Ponds their rookie cornerback injury.
[33:08] Speaker 2: The exact same way. They're not rushing whatsoever. And if
[33:12] Speaker 2: you look at both Tadeacon Ponds, they're both extremely good athletes.
[33:16] Speaker 1: They're both like eight plus RAS athletes.
[33:18] Speaker 2: They played it big time college football programs into the
[33:22] Speaker 2: college football playoffs.
[33:23] Speaker 1: They feel like.
[33:24] Speaker 2: They know what they have in these guys, and they
[33:26] Speaker 2: don't feel any need to rush either of them onto
[33:29] Speaker 2: the practice field when things just simply don't matter until
[33:33] Speaker 2: a month oft from now, when when real games are
[33:35] Speaker 2: being played. So everything that I've heard from folks inside
[33:39] Speaker 2: the building is that there's no worry.
[33:42] Speaker 1: Right. Sometimes you get these injuries where guys.
[33:45] Speaker 2: Not playing and you're waiting and you literally Alec Pierce, Yeah,
[33:49] Speaker 2: it's like the people are concerned as to what is
[33:53] Speaker 2: going on. But these both injuries. I know this is one.
[33:56] Speaker 2: It's a defensive injury, but these feel like deliberate, managed
[34:01] Speaker 2: timelines and not like houses on fire.
[34:04] Speaker 1: What are we going to do?
[34:05] Speaker 3: I'm fully aware that it can burn me, but that's
[34:07] Speaker 3: why he's been sued around seventeen and that's what you know.
[34:09] Speaker 3: I'm just looking at the cost benefit there.
[34:11] Speaker 1: So, yeah, this isn't like you said.
[34:14] Speaker 2: And now that it's even dipping even further, we're getting
[34:17] Speaker 2: to the like completely meaningless. Just please find a guy
[34:21] Speaker 2: that is going to get you points parts of these droughts.
[34:24] Speaker 3: One more guy I want to touch on is Aronde Gatston,
[34:26] Speaker 3: who is falling because there's a lot of negative vibes
[34:30] Speaker 3: around that tight end room in the way they're talking
[34:32] Speaker 3: about them. I mean, they're talking about basically like an
[34:35] Speaker 3: eight way committee at this point with all the tight
[34:38] Speaker 3: ends that they have and how they want to deploy them.
[34:41] Speaker 3: On paper from a process standpoint, and this is why
[34:43] Speaker 3: market score had the comps that they that it did
[34:46] Speaker 3: for Gatston. On paper, he would seem like a smash,
[34:51] Speaker 3: like one of the most one of the most productive
[34:54] Speaker 3: rookie tight end seasons we've ever seen, like top twenty
[34:58] Speaker 3: in NFL history came from get last year. One of
[35:01] Speaker 3: the best offenses that we're projecting for this year in
[35:04] Speaker 3: an offense that doesn't feature tons of eleven personnel, and
[35:09] Speaker 3: so you could see the tight end benefiting in those situations.
[35:13] Speaker 3: But it does seem like they are going to, you know,
[35:17] Speaker 3: give David and Joku some run, Charlie Kohlar some run,
[35:21] Speaker 3: and it's gonna hurt Gadson. Admittedly, I feel like that
[35:24] Speaker 3: he might be a better season long dart than a
[35:28] Speaker 3: best ball dart because there feels like there's a chance
[35:31] Speaker 3: that there's just no usability from the tight end room.
[35:34] Speaker 3: And I know that people could say, oh, well, he'll
[35:37] Speaker 3: have a spiked week here and there. I wouldn't disagree,
[35:39] Speaker 3: But he's going ahead of some other guys that are
[35:41] Speaker 3: definitely gonna have spiked weeks, you know, like a he's
[35:44] Speaker 3: still going ahead of Terrence Ferguson, for instance. And I
[35:47] Speaker 3: don't see why, you know, similar bet from an offense
[35:50] Speaker 3: standpoint and an environment standpoint. Of course, you know you
[35:53] Speaker 3: get two high target share players with Devontae Adams and Pukinakua,
[35:57] Speaker 3: but they don't target their running backs in that offense.
[36:00] Speaker 3: We already know that, and they don't have a slot guy.
[36:02] Speaker 3: So like Terrence Ferguson, I mean, look, Ferguson is like
[36:04] Speaker 3: a seventeen percent exposure guy for me right now. So
[36:07] Speaker 3: like I'm I'm definitely saying this from the perspective of
[36:10] Speaker 3: like I like the dude. I think he's a really
[36:12] Speaker 3: good talented player, but I don't see the need to
[36:14] Speaker 3: like reach for a guy like Gadston when there are
[36:17] Speaker 3: other bets as well, you know, for you know, a
[36:20] Speaker 3: player like you know, Terrence Ferguson, so kind of like
[36:23] Speaker 3: off him and Best Ball for the most part at
[36:26] Speaker 3: that price unless I can get him at a two
[36:28] Speaker 3: round discount or so, and then I will you know,
[36:30] Speaker 3: be fine with him as like a tight end two
[36:32] Speaker 3: dart throw type in a season long format.
[36:35] Speaker 2: Well, and even somebody like Gasicki who's like barely being drafted,
[36:40] Speaker 2: right Like, there are guys that again when we're getting
[36:44] Speaker 2: to some of those later rounds like buying points right like,
[36:48] Speaker 2: it just seems like it could be too treacherous with
[36:52] Speaker 2: such a crowded room, and despite him playing so well
[36:56] Speaker 2: last year, like you said, the unfortunately the model can't
[36:59] Speaker 2: regress or new OC and a team that.
[37:02] Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a lot of factors.
[37:03] Speaker 2: Yeah, specifically went out and got two guys, right Like.
[37:06] Speaker 2: It's honestly, we talked about this offline as we closed
[37:09] Speaker 2: last week, you and I. It's annoying because it's an
[37:12] Speaker 2: offense that we want to buy into. It's a tight
[37:14] Speaker 2: end position in an offense that we specifically want to
[37:16] Speaker 2: buy into. But unfortunately for Best Ball, there is so
[37:19] Speaker 2: much ambiguity that it makes a very very difficult click.
[37:23] Speaker 3: Yeah, not a total fade for me, but I don't
[37:26] Speaker 3: think you need to like totally go after him at
[37:28] Speaker 3: the moment. So I'd say for the risers and followers,
[37:31] Speaker 3: we do have a guest today, Sam Sherman. He's a
[37:34] Speaker 3: huge multi million dollar winner and Best Ball on some
[37:38] Speaker 3: other platform. He does Best Ball Breakfast with Pete Overzet.
[37:42] Speaker 3: He does a show with legendary upside and Pat Krane
[37:45] Speaker 3: called That's Fair. We chatted about Josh Allen and his
[37:48] Speaker 3: ADP the importance of getting good CLV, so I thought that,
[37:52] Speaker 3: you know, his insights were really great, some of the
[37:54] Speaker 3: stuff that we talked about earlier, how he's drafting differently
[37:57] Speaker 3: here in August, so much more. It was a great discussion.
[38:00] Speaker 3: So here's my interview with Sam.
[38:02] Speaker 4: Sure.
[38:18] Speaker 3: All right, Sam, so we're now finally getting some camp news,
[38:21] Speaker 3: which is sweet. I mean, it's not super sweet if
[38:23] Speaker 3: you are, you know, holding a lot of Luther Burden
[38:25] Speaker 3: bags right now, or or you know Ricky Pearsall or whoever.
[38:29] Speaker 3: But my question I asked last week, I'm gonna ask
[38:32] Speaker 3: you how do you sort of keep a level head
[38:34] Speaker 3: this time of year and sort of like avoid over
[38:37] Speaker 3: drafting zeros because there's a lot of hype with like
[38:40] Speaker 3: a lot of these like Day three rookies for instance.
[38:42] Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's it's really tricky and if you,
[38:45] Speaker 4: you know, go on X right now, you'll see that
[38:47] Speaker 4: basically every single wide receiver that was drafted this year
[38:50] Speaker 4: is having an amazing camp, Like Malik Benson is lighting
[38:53] Speaker 4: up Raiders camp, Caleb Douglas in Miami, so on and
[38:58] Speaker 4: so forth.
[38:58] Speaker 5: So I try to like weigh.
[39:00] Speaker 4: All this this news like I'm kind of a spectrum
[39:04] Speaker 4: or a scale, Like I think there are important things
[39:06] Speaker 4: like injuries.
[39:09] Speaker 5: I think I'm paying a lot of attention to now.
[39:12] Speaker 4: Again, like be careful of the like player X got
[39:15] Speaker 4: carted off at one practice because oftentimes in preseason like
[39:19] Speaker 4: that can be a big deal and that can mean nothing.
[39:21] Speaker 4: So try not to overreact to that too much in
[39:25] Speaker 4: real time and sort of wait for the reporting to
[39:27] Speaker 4: come out.
[39:27] Speaker 5: But I think, yeah, like injury news I think is important.
[39:30] Speaker 4: I think reporting on snaps with the first team, I
[39:34] Speaker 4: think I pay attention to that.
[39:36] Speaker 5: I pay less attention to things like just.
[39:39] Speaker 4: Highlight clips or beat reporter saying, you know, player X
[39:44] Speaker 4: is having an amazing camp. It's like, Okay, are they
[39:47] Speaker 4: having an amazing camp with the third team offense or
[39:51] Speaker 4: the first team offense? Like that's what I think really
[39:53] Speaker 4: really matters more.
[39:54] Speaker 3: Yeah, I think there's also going to end up being
[39:56] Speaker 3: like this year, especially, do you feel like this is
[39:58] Speaker 3: totally subjective, but it feels like we're getting more Day
[40:03] Speaker 3: three random Day two, especially this draft class where there
[40:06] Speaker 3: wasn't like a ton of alphas and like a ton
[40:08] Speaker 3: of like obvious profiles, Like we're just getting so many
[40:11] Speaker 3: of them steamed right now and I don't remember it
[40:14] Speaker 3: being quite like this in the past. Does it feel
[40:17] Speaker 3: that way? And I guess like, are you do you
[40:19] Speaker 3: lean into it a little bit? Like are you leaning
[40:20] Speaker 3: into like Cyrus Allen a little bit or Jacobe Lane
[40:24] Speaker 3: a little bit? Like just based on the way that
[40:26] Speaker 3: some people, you know, some of these Beat reporters are
[40:28] Speaker 3: talking about them, Yeah.
[40:30] Speaker 4: I think, answering your first question, I do feel like
[40:33] Speaker 4: it is worse this year. I was I was, actually
[40:36] Speaker 4: I do a show with Pete overs that weekly on
[40:38] Speaker 4: his channel, and I was wondering, like, obviously, this isn't
[40:41] Speaker 4: the first off season where we've had algorithmics social media,
[40:45] Speaker 4: Like I think there's something about X like in their
[40:48] Speaker 4: algorithm now that like amplifies hype cycles more than we
[40:52] Speaker 4: would in the past, because everyone's algorithm is like tailored
[40:55] Speaker 4: towards that you click on one post of Cyrus Allen
[40:58] Speaker 4: and then all of a sudden you get fed ten
[41:00] Speaker 4: or fifteen more and five years ago that wasn't the
[41:03] Speaker 4: case on social media, right, it was an algorithmic in
[41:06] Speaker 4: that sense. It was kind of more like a timeline
[41:09] Speaker 4: of news. So anyways, I do think there's something to that,
[41:13] Speaker 4: but to a specific I think people are probably more
[41:14] Speaker 4: interested in specific players. Actually have been leaning in a
[41:18] Speaker 4: little bit on the Cyrus Allen and Jacobe Lane to
[41:21] Speaker 4: the extent that I think they are like draftable in
[41:24] Speaker 4: the eighteenth round, because I do think it matters in
[41:27] Speaker 4: the context of a Those are both offenses that have
[41:33] Speaker 4: the ceiling to be you know, top five in the
[41:34] Speaker 4: NFL and scoring if things go right, and both those
[41:38] Speaker 4: teams do have pretty wide open wide receiver rooms, you know,
[41:43] Speaker 4: particularly in wide receiver you know two or three on
[41:46] Speaker 4: those teams. So I have been willing to click those
[41:49] Speaker 4: guys a little bit. But again it's like, yeah, seventeenth, eighteenth,
[41:52] Speaker 4: twentieth round picks or whatever, not chasing them huge up
[41:56] Speaker 4: the board.
[41:56] Speaker 3: Yeah, which every once in a while you get like that,
[41:59] Speaker 3: like thirteenth on Cyrus Allen, and you're like, okay, like
[42:02] Speaker 3: could this happen? Could this workout? Maybe? But I'm certainly
[42:05] Speaker 3: not going to pay that kind of price for it.
[42:07] Speaker 3: Now that we're in August. Another question I want to
[42:09] Speaker 3: ask is, you know, obviously you've been drafting for a
[42:12] Speaker 3: long time now this summer, you know, I have two
[42:15] Speaker 3: Are you approaching things differently in your August drafts than
[42:19] Speaker 3: you were, let's say in like May and June.
[42:21] Speaker 4: Yeah, I think, tying into the first point, I think,
[42:26] Speaker 4: now that we know a little bit better now about
[42:29] Speaker 4: what later round rookies and young players are looking good
[42:33] Speaker 4: in the later rounds, I'm skewing a little bit more
[42:36] Speaker 4: towards drafting those players as opposed to sort of like
[42:39] Speaker 4: the boring veteran types like I think I'm taking.
[42:43] Speaker 5: I don't know who's an example. Calvin Ridley is maybe
[42:46] Speaker 5: a guy.
[42:47] Speaker 4: Who I was drafting more of in May, just because
[42:49] Speaker 4: I'm trying to avoid zeros with my last couple of picks.
[42:52] Speaker 4: I know he has a contract, he's going to be
[42:54] Speaker 4: on the team, whereas some of these guys Jacobe Lane whoever,
[42:57] Speaker 4: you know, you might be taking total zeros there. So
[42:59] Speaker 4: it's a little bit more of like taking some of
[43:02] Speaker 4: the funner rookies instead of the boring veterans. And then
[43:05] Speaker 4: I think, like structurally, I'm a little bit gearing more
[43:10] Speaker 4: towards late round running back as I think a couple
[43:14] Speaker 4: of the late round running back targets have become.
[43:17] Speaker 5: More clear to me.
[43:18] Speaker 4: For me personally, that's like Marshaun Lloyd and Jaden Blue. Yeah,
[43:23] Speaker 4: you know, for a while it was like completely barren
[43:26] Speaker 4: at running back pass like pick you know, one forty
[43:29] Speaker 4: or one fifty or so. And I think we're starting
[43:32] Speaker 4: to get a little bit more guys I like there.
[43:34] Speaker 4: So that means maybe a little bit more wide receivers
[43:37] Speaker 4: tight ends in the early rounds instead of running backs,
[43:40] Speaker 4: and a couple more running backs picked late.
[43:43] Speaker 3: Yeah, I love that. I love that notion. And I
[43:46] Speaker 3: felt the same way where it's like, you know, you
[43:49] Speaker 3: don't know back in June. Not only like Marshaon Lloyd's
[43:52] Speaker 3: a great example, not only like is he going to
[43:54] Speaker 3: be healthy, but like where's he sort of sit within
[43:57] Speaker 3: the depth chart and you know, it seems like everything's
[43:59] Speaker 3: gone in a really favorable way for him, so you
[44:01] Speaker 3: just have more comfortability and confidence that he's the right
[44:05] Speaker 3: kind of click to make. And then obviously there's you know,
[44:07] Speaker 3: stuff going on with Josh Jacobs that may or may
[44:09] Speaker 3: not come to fruition, but regardless of that, you know,
[44:11] Speaker 3: it does make sense and it allows you to be
[44:13] Speaker 3: really flexible with your roster construction as well. One question
[44:17] Speaker 3: I really want to ask is you're seeing some players
[44:20] Speaker 3: that have seen a pretty big jump and change in
[44:22] Speaker 3: ADP the league. Neighbors being one where he was like
[44:25] Speaker 3: a fourth rounder for a while and now you're seeing
[44:28] Speaker 3: him in like the late second pretty frequently. Stefan Diggs
[44:31] Speaker 3: obviously a huge, huge gain given that he's signed in Washington.
[44:36] Speaker 3: My question for you, because I know that there's a
[44:38] Speaker 3: lot of people out there who you know, didn't get
[44:41] Speaker 3: a lot of digs or didn't get a lot of neighbors.
[44:43] Speaker 3: I wish I got more neighbors personally, so I want
[44:45] Speaker 3: to hear the answer to this just from that perspective,
[44:47] Speaker 3: But how do you handle things now? And you could
[44:49] Speaker 3: talk about this in the opposite direction as well, you know,
[44:51] Speaker 3: because like guys get hurt. Kenyan Sidik is a good
[44:54] Speaker 3: example where I thought he was a great click I
[44:56] Speaker 3: was clicking a lot of him on DKA, and then
[44:59] Speaker 3: all of a sudden, it's like, Oh, the sporternia injury
[45:01] Speaker 3: is actually going to continue and not stop, and so
[45:04] Speaker 3: maybe he'll he'll be ready in week one, but obviously
[45:06] Speaker 3: he's ADP's tumbling. So with all this shifting and ADP,
[45:10] Speaker 3: if you missed out at the more favorable ADP, are
[45:13] Speaker 3: you doubling down? Are you saying, Oh, I got enough neighbors,
[45:16] Speaker 3: I'm done drafting neighbors. How do you handle that?
[45:18] Speaker 5: In total? Yeah, that's a very good question.
[45:21] Speaker 4: I think like before we get into the specifics and
[45:24] Speaker 4: maybe those situations, I am someone where I don't worry
[45:29] Speaker 4: too much about like, oh, I didn't get neighbors at
[45:33] Speaker 4: the best possible price at pick forty five, Therefore I'm
[45:37] Speaker 4: not going to chase him up to pick twenty, just
[45:40] Speaker 4: because because I think there's some people that are like, oh,
[45:43] Speaker 4: if you take neighbors at pick twenty and say you
[45:46] Speaker 4: advance that team to the finals, you're competing against teams
[45:49] Speaker 4: that got neighbors at pick forty five, and you have
[45:51] Speaker 4: a disadvantage. Therefore you should just like fade neighbors and
[45:55] Speaker 4: hope that like he is not the guy you need.
[45:58] Speaker 4: I pretty strongly like disagree with with that notion. I
[46:01] Speaker 4: think generally you should just kind of like update your
[46:04] Speaker 4: rankings based on no new information if that player, like
[46:08] Speaker 4: at its new price, is still a good pick, like
[46:12] Speaker 4: based on your updated rankings, I'm not worried about like where.
[46:16] Speaker 5: The best price was that you could have gone a
[46:18] Speaker 5: month ago.
[46:19] Speaker 4: Sure, there's like I bet you could come up with
[46:21] Speaker 4: some hypothetical scenario where like, say I don't know, Kyron
[46:25] Speaker 4: Williams tears his ACL and Blake Korum goes to the
[46:28] Speaker 4: one two turn. Then I think that's like a level
[46:31] Speaker 4: of change where like you might want to consider that dynamic, right, Like,
[46:36] Speaker 4: but I think I think these are all the digs
[46:38] Speaker 4: Neighbors examples. It's not extreme enough where I don't think
[46:41] Speaker 4: that matters too much. So for me, like those those
[46:44] Speaker 4: specific situations, I think both those guys kind of had
[46:48] Speaker 4: deserved skyrocketing up up the boards. I think the neighbors
[46:53] Speaker 4: information on his health I think really does matter a lot.
[46:56] Speaker 4: So for those two guys specifically, I really have been
[47:00] Speaker 4: chasing him up and then yeah, dig.
[47:02] Speaker 5: I feel like the.
[47:03] Speaker 4: Digs thing is just like a lesson that I somehow
[47:06] Speaker 4: failed to learn every off season, is that like when
[47:09] Speaker 4: these veteran guys sign, they just like.
[47:12] Speaker 5: Inevitably go up.
[47:13] Speaker 3: Yeah.
[47:14] Speaker 4: So I think I missed that one a little bit.
[47:16] Speaker 4: I wasn't taking a lot of digs. That said, though,
[47:19] Speaker 4: it's like he could have signed with I don't know,
[47:22] Speaker 4: he could have signed with a much worse leg He's
[47:24] Speaker 4: the perfect spot, yeah exactly.
[47:26] Speaker 5: Yeah, Yeah, so it was a little bit of bad
[47:28] Speaker 5: luck there.
[47:29] Speaker 3: Yeah. I've kind of like gotten to the point where
[47:31] Speaker 3: it's almost like the meme of like you think about
[47:34] Speaker 3: something really basic and then you know, you there's like
[47:37] Speaker 3: a nerd you know, the nerd part where they're like
[47:39] Speaker 3: thinking about CLV and you know, like yeah, calculations and
[47:43] Speaker 3: then at the very end, you know you're the expert
[47:45] Speaker 3: and you just think about it, you know, just getting
[47:47] Speaker 3: the right guy once again, right, And like I feel
[47:49] Speaker 3: that way almost with like a neighbors or or you know,
[47:53] Speaker 3: like these two examples in particular, It's like I think
[47:56] Speaker 3: there are too many iterations to a possible line up
[48:00] Speaker 3: to get so worked up about what that CLV could
[48:03] Speaker 3: look like in week seventeen. You know, like even though, yes,
[48:07] Speaker 3: like I think anyone sitting here right now probably wishes
[48:10] Speaker 3: they had twenty five percent neighbors in the fourth round,
[48:13] Speaker 3: right just just given like what ended up happening, I'm
[48:16] Speaker 3: I'm sure you'd feel a lot better. Maybe not twenty
[48:18] Speaker 3: five percent, but at least like twenty percent neighbors at
[48:21] Speaker 3: that fourth round price tag. But even if you're drafting
[48:23] Speaker 3: him in round two, I don't think it's a given
[48:26] Speaker 3: because all there's so many iterations as to what could
[48:28] Speaker 3: go down in round three, like the guys in round
[48:31] Speaker 3: three and four. One of the things that I talked
[48:32] Speaker 3: about on the show last week, because like I was
[48:35] Speaker 3: mostly fading neighbors, crossing my fingers that his ADP would
[48:38] Speaker 3: actually get lower if he was placed on pup and
[48:40] Speaker 3: then that obviously didn't happen, and so I had to
[48:43] Speaker 3: react quickly. Now, I think, just given the way that
[48:46] Speaker 3: like the landscape is and what I've experienced, at least
[48:49] Speaker 3: there is a window usually before things really get out
[48:53] Speaker 3: of it, like things really get like before a player
[48:55] Speaker 3: rises to where he should go, you know. So I
[48:58] Speaker 3: had a week of of just trying to get middle
[49:01] Speaker 3: third round into late third round neighbors, and then like
[49:04] Speaker 3: you know, it turned into like two three turned neighbors
[49:06] Speaker 3: and stuff, and I got to a point where like
[49:08] Speaker 3: I'm properly weighted with neighbors because I was able to
[49:11] Speaker 3: react in that way and the way that I kind
[49:13] Speaker 3: of framed it, and I you know, I said this
[49:15] Speaker 3: last week, maybe it's a little cope, but like round
[49:18] Speaker 3: three and round four to me, is really flat in general,
[49:21] Speaker 3: and so like I don't even feel like the opportunity
[49:23] Speaker 3: costs was like so so significant that like, oh, it's
[49:26] Speaker 3: going to ruin my teams if I'm drafting neighbors in
[49:28] Speaker 3: round three. It's going to be an interesting question. I
[49:32] Speaker 3: think if you get to like the one two turn
[49:33] Speaker 3: with neighbors and you're like, now, all of a sudden,
[49:36] Speaker 3: you know these guys that are like legitimate league winning
[49:38] Speaker 3: type running backs and stuff that you're drafting them over,
[49:41] Speaker 3: or like even like the Drake London line I think
[49:43] Speaker 3: is a really interesting one with with neighbors, just because
[49:46] Speaker 3: London has just as much upside standalone as Neighbors does,
[49:50] Speaker 3: right without the injury concerns. So like that's that's probably
[49:54] Speaker 3: the question for me. But again, I don't know. I'm
[49:56] Speaker 3: trying to not like care so so much about CLV
[49:59] Speaker 3: and the you know, like not not get so worked
[50:02] Speaker 3: up about it because if it's the dude like Kenyan Sidik,
[50:05] Speaker 3: I have a lot of Kenyans Sadik, and now he's cheaper,
[50:07] Speaker 3: I'm still drafting cheaper Sadik because I just think he's
[50:09] Speaker 3: a good value in generally.
[50:10] Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's the threat of parach Like you said,
[50:13] Speaker 4: the like if you try to do as a I
[50:15] Speaker 4: don't know what you try to do this, but as
[50:17] Speaker 4: a hypothetical exercise, like draft a team from the one
[50:20] Speaker 4: to twelve and then on your next draft try to
[50:22] Speaker 4: draft the same exact team from the one to twelve.
[50:25] Speaker 4: You're gonna unless you're reaching on every player, right, Like,
[50:28] Speaker 4: you're not gonna be able to do it. There's just
[50:30] Speaker 4: like so much randomness in how the draft shakeout. There's
[50:34] Speaker 4: so much randomness, you know, in the playoff structure of
[50:37] Speaker 4: these tournaments where you can be paired against stronger weaker
[50:41] Speaker 4: teams in the.
[50:41] Speaker 5: Playoff rules, Like there's just so much out there.
[50:44] Speaker 4: Whereas like if this was a you know we're talking
[50:48] Speaker 4: here about sort of generally playoff best ball, like the
[50:51] Speaker 4: structure of the Best Ball Millionaire. If you're playing like
[50:54] Speaker 4: a season long contest where it's like most total points
[50:57] Speaker 4: throughout the whole season, that's for maybe the CLV thing,
[51:00] Speaker 4: like it starts to matter more.
[51:03] Speaker 5: But yeah, in these tournament pod structure tournaments, I think
[51:06] Speaker 5: it just it's not my my primary, yeah concern at all.
[51:11] Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a one week thing where like it doesn't
[51:13] Speaker 3: you know, like Neighbors could have a bad week or
[51:16] Speaker 3: you know, like that that person that you're, that player
[51:18] Speaker 3: that you would be taking Neighbors over, could Drake London
[51:21] Speaker 3: If if you're taking him over Drake London, he could blow
[51:23] Speaker 3: up in week seventeen then all of a sudden, like
[51:25] Speaker 3: you know, don't have the guy. But also does that
[51:28] Speaker 3: mean that you are not frequently like pulling guys up
[51:32] Speaker 3: in ADP to get a differentiated lineup? So like if
[51:35] Speaker 3: you're you know, like Nico Collins has been end of
[51:38] Speaker 3: round two, early round three, now that Neighbors gets pushed
[51:41] Speaker 3: up sometimes so you'll see him fall at times, But like,
[51:43] Speaker 3: are you ever pulling Nico to the other side of
[51:45] Speaker 3: the board just to differentiate your lineup or are you
[51:48] Speaker 3: more of the mindset of what you just said where
[51:50] Speaker 3: it's like, yeah, these lineups are differentiated enough because we're
[51:53] Speaker 3: we're drafting, you know, twenty rounds on DraftKings, and clearly
[51:57] Speaker 3: there's gonna be very very many iterations of what we
[51:59] Speaker 3: could possibly do with his lineup.
[52:01] Speaker 4: Yeah, I am not really someone who focuses a lot
[52:05] Speaker 4: on you like flipping the draft board by pulling a
[52:08] Speaker 4: player up. I do think about, like, I don't know,
[52:12] Speaker 4: the one spot where I've like thought about it a
[52:13] Speaker 4: little bit this year is like the twelve spot, so
[52:16] Speaker 4: the one the one two turn I guess in the
[52:19] Speaker 4: first round, where like I don't want the same combination
[52:22] Speaker 4: of two running backs every single time, Like I don't
[52:26] Speaker 4: want all my teams to be Gente Barkley or whatever.
[52:29] Speaker 5: So I have been like randomizing that a little bit.
[52:31] Speaker 4: But yeah, I don't as opposed to pulling someone up
[52:34] Speaker 4: in the first couple of rounds. I generally have a
[52:36] Speaker 4: rule where like if a player in the first couple
[52:38] Speaker 4: of rounds just falls four or five, six, seven picks
[52:42] Speaker 4: past adp unless it's a guy, I like intentionally have
[52:45] Speaker 4: a huge fade on.
[52:46] Speaker 5: Yeah, I just like take that.
[52:48] Speaker 4: Value every time, And I think that kind of achieves
[52:52] Speaker 4: the same effect in a lot of ways without like
[52:55] Speaker 4: reaching for the player.
[52:57] Speaker 5: So that's kind of my approach to that.
[52:59] Speaker 3: Yeah, I couldn't more. That's that's how I've approached things
[53:01] Speaker 3: as well. One of the questions that I love asking
[53:05] Speaker 3: guests this year because it just reveals a lot and
[53:07] Speaker 3: it gets into like a lot of just how you're
[53:10] Speaker 3: approaching the position and game theory and roster construction. Are
[53:15] Speaker 3: you drafting Josh Allen? Is he is he overrated? Underrated
[53:19] Speaker 3: or properly rated right now? Do you think on DraftKings?
[53:22] Speaker 5: Yeah, I.
[53:25] Speaker 4: Like to be a contrarian in the Fantasy best Ball
[53:28] Speaker 4: space sometimes, and I know everyone is saying Josh Allen
[53:32] Speaker 4: is overrated, But in the case of the DraftKings ADP,
[53:35] Speaker 4: I do actually agree with the I guess expert consensus.
[53:38] Speaker 4: I do think he's a bit overdrafted at pick twenty eight.
[53:43] Speaker 4: It is a pretty massive gap between where he goes
[53:47] Speaker 4: and where the next tier of elite quarterbacks go. Lamar Jackson,
[53:52] Speaker 4: Jaden Daniels, you know other guys that give you the
[53:55] Speaker 4: dual threat ability but are going thirty. I think in
[53:58] Speaker 4: Daniel's case, forty picks later, So I do think with
[54:02] Speaker 4: Alan that's it's a bit too much to give up
[54:06] Speaker 4: if I was building, Like I do think it's interesting
[54:08] Speaker 4: debate though, because like year over year, Alan kind of
[54:13] Speaker 4: does if you do some kind of analysis of like
[54:16] Speaker 4: points above replacement, you know, relative to position, and then
[54:19] Speaker 4: rank Allen versus other players, he does kind of like
[54:22] Speaker 4: pay off this price tag most years. So from that standpoint,
[54:27] Speaker 4: I can't say it's like a terrible pick. I think
[54:29] Speaker 4: there's like a lot of like safety in what you
[54:31] Speaker 4: get from Alan and best ball, where like year over
[54:34] Speaker 4: year he just crushes every year. But I do think
[54:39] Speaker 4: I just like the two y twos of like taking
[54:41] Speaker 4: those slightly later elite quarterbacks, you know, recognizing they have
[54:45] Speaker 4: slightly lower odds than Alan, a finishing QB one. But
[54:48] Speaker 4: I think that gap from them to Alan doesn't really
[54:51] Speaker 4: reflect like the difference in their odds there. So on DraftKings,
[54:56] Speaker 4: I've been avoiding him with the caveat of what I
[54:59] Speaker 4: said earlier. When guys fall five, six, seven picks past ADP,
[55:03] Speaker 4: I just take them. So I'm not taking zero Allen.
[55:05] Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I'm with you. I'm with you. And then
[55:08] Speaker 3: my other question is similar. I mean, it's a onesie position,
[55:10] Speaker 3: But what about Brock Bowers, who I think a lot
[55:13] Speaker 3: of people would view in a similar way as Allen
[55:16] Speaker 3: is being like by far the best in that onesie position.
[55:18] Speaker 3: Are you being aggressive with Bowers this year?
[55:21] Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm in on Bowers is DraftKings price tag, mid
[55:26] Speaker 4: mid second round pick. I think last year you can
[55:30] Speaker 4: largely chalk up a lot of his underperformance to injury.
[55:35] Speaker 4: I feel like Kirk Cousins and Mendoza, while they're not
[55:39] Speaker 4: anyone's like dream quarterback room, it adds like a base
[55:42] Speaker 4: level of competency here to the offense, and the wide
[55:46] Speaker 4: receivers remain Like I mean, we're talking about Malik Benson
[55:50] Speaker 4: hype in trading.
[55:51] Speaker 5: Camp, that's what we're talking about.
[55:53] Speaker 4: From the wide receiver room here, it's really really ugly.
[55:57] Speaker 4: So I think the target share ceiling on back hours
[56:00] Speaker 4: uh justifies his price.
[56:02] Speaker 5: I'm pretty in on him.
[56:04] Speaker 3: Yeah, wide receiver this year. To me, I certainly have
[56:08] Speaker 3: my stands, don't get me wrong, But I also look
[56:11] Speaker 3: at like the top thirty at the position, and I
[56:13] Speaker 3: think that that's generally the right like thirty guys that
[56:16] Speaker 3: you drafted in that range. So I guess my question
[56:19] Speaker 3: to you is like, do you have any fades in
[56:22] Speaker 3: the top thirty a wide receiver? And this could be
[56:24] Speaker 3: because like for me, a fade for me is just
[56:27] Speaker 3: a guy that, like, you know, I'm just I'm still
[56:29] Speaker 3: getting exposure to, you know, like maybe a three percent
[56:32] Speaker 3: to four percent exposure to. It's just not the guy
[56:34] Speaker 3: that I'm getting the you know, thirteen fourteen percent exposure to.
[56:37] Speaker 4: For me, I agree with you, I don't have a
[56:41] Speaker 4: ton The guy I'm fating the most in the top
[56:44] Speaker 4: thirty wide receivers would be Rashi Rice. And it's it's
[56:48] Speaker 4: a tricky one with Rashi Rice because I think if
[56:51] Speaker 4: you do any kind of like projections to inform best ball,
[56:56] Speaker 4: and I'm assuming this for you, I don't know this
[56:57] Speaker 4: would be the case, but I assume that Rashi Rice
[56:59] Speaker 4: like projects pretty damn well. Whenever he's he's healthy, he
[57:03] Speaker 4: puts up pretty big stats. He's pretty good from a
[57:05] Speaker 4: peripheral stats perspective. It's not like the Chiefs added much
[57:10] Speaker 4: to their the wide receiver room this season. But I
[57:13] Speaker 4: think for me in bastball, like a lot of what
[57:15] Speaker 4: I'm trying to avoid is like negative tail outcomes in
[57:20] Speaker 4: the first handful of rounds, and I think Rice just
[57:23] Speaker 4: stands out to me like in a weird way. He
[57:26] Speaker 4: kind of reminds me of like a dead zone running
[57:28] Speaker 4: back in that you're you're kind of banking on projectable volume,
[57:34] Speaker 4: but you're kind of relying on like the Chiefs to
[57:36] Speaker 4: run the offense offense a certain way. It's not like
[57:40] Speaker 4: for she Rice is like other other top fifteen, you know,
[57:43] Speaker 4: wide receivers by by ADP, they're all like studs if
[57:46] Speaker 4: they hit the open market, they're they're getting massive contracts,
[57:49] Speaker 4: like their team has a ton invest in them. For
[57:52] Speaker 4: she Rice, like it is much more of like the
[57:54] Speaker 4: PPR scam type, where like I'm yeah, I'm not really
[57:59] Speaker 4: sure he makes the Chiefs offense that much better, and
[58:03] Speaker 4: like if they decided to go away from using him
[58:06] Speaker 4: at the focal point, I think he could lose a
[58:09] Speaker 4: lot of value. So and there's also like I don't know,
[58:12] Speaker 4: there's a bit of like an idiot tax thing with
[58:14] Speaker 4: Rice that's like impossible to model, but you have to.
[58:17] Speaker 5: I think consider with Hoose off season has gone. So yeah,
[58:20] Speaker 5: he's he's the answer for me.
[58:21] Speaker 3: There's that's a really good one. To call out because
[58:24] Speaker 3: and I feel like I haven't even talked about him
[58:26] Speaker 3: on many shows this offseason in general, because I'm not
[58:28] Speaker 3: really like keen on like being high on Rashid Rice
[58:32] Speaker 3: this year. It just doesn't seem like because I agree
[58:35] Speaker 3: with you, we're like, I don't think he's that special
[58:38] Speaker 3: of a talent. I think that by default he's been
[58:41] Speaker 3: getting a lot of work in the way that offense
[58:42] Speaker 3: has flowed. But there's a chance this year that like
[58:45] Speaker 3: this offense just looks a lot different, you know, with
[58:47] Speaker 3: with the Kenneth Walker signing with Mahomes coming off the
[58:50] Speaker 3: ACL and obviously Cyrus Allen the God coming out of
[58:55] Speaker 3: of the draft. No, in all seriousness, though, like I
[58:58] Speaker 3: think that's a good call out to me because you're
[59:01] Speaker 3: quite literally happy to take him right now over a
[59:03] Speaker 3: Nico Collins oftentimes, or you know, like now neighbors, is
[59:07] Speaker 3: there even like a Pickens or DeVante Smith, Like you
[59:10] Speaker 3: can make the argument that they're I mean, I would
[59:12] Speaker 3: make the argument certainly that they're better real life players.
[59:14] Speaker 3: It's just that they're not sure in this like environment
[59:17] Speaker 3: where they just get fed out of the slot, and
[59:20] Speaker 3: what if that just looks a little bit different. It
[59:22] Speaker 3: is scary, it's at least fragile, And to.
[59:23] Speaker 4: Maybe emphasize that point, like how many in the history
[59:27] Speaker 4: of fantasy football, how many twenty six year old wide receivers,
[59:31] Speaker 4: you know, being drafted from the top two rounds of
[59:34] Speaker 4: fantasy drafts have reporting that their team isn't like interested
[59:39] Speaker 4: in extending them long term like that, Like, that's that's
[59:42] Speaker 4: the type of fragility. Like it's obviously that doesn't mean everything.
[59:45] Speaker 4: Don't base your draft pick on that, but it's a
[59:48] Speaker 4: weird data point with Rice and kind of undermines his
[59:52] Speaker 4: his stability that you mostly like that's why, you know,
[59:56] Speaker 4: like fantasy wide receivers are generally attractive. Best ball is
[1:00:00] Speaker 4: like to some degree, they're like pretty stable, like can
[1:00:03] Speaker 4: hit the fan, but their talent will shine through. And
[1:00:05] Speaker 4: Rice is just like a little bit different from that standpoint.
[1:00:08] Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, no, it's a really good call out. Another
[1:00:11] Speaker 3: question I want to ask. I feel like I've been
[1:00:13] Speaker 3: drafting this year and not really thinking about teams that
[1:00:17] Speaker 3: I am just so in on from the perspective of
[1:00:22] Speaker 3: like just loving that offense and think that they're gonna
[1:00:24] Speaker 3: beat the market. It's more so like being reactive to
[1:00:26] Speaker 3: what the room is giving me and then stacking based
[1:00:29] Speaker 3: on that. Right, if I get a falling value of
[1:00:32] Speaker 3: Za Flowers or something and then I get Lamar in
[1:00:35] Speaker 3: the fifth and it's like, oh, all of a sudden
[1:00:36] Speaker 3: of a Baltimore stack or what have you. Now, Obviously
[1:00:39] Speaker 3: that leads to then being overweight or underweight on certain
[1:00:42] Speaker 3: offenses that I'm stacking. But I guess my question to
[1:00:45] Speaker 3: you is like, as you're drafting, are you kind of
[1:00:48] Speaker 3: going about it the same way or are there teams
[1:00:50] Speaker 3: out there that you think are just like undervalued in
[1:00:52] Speaker 3: general or a team that might be lower key that
[1:00:56] Speaker 3: might surprise people.
[1:00:57] Speaker 4: Until like the macro point, I like am kind of
[1:01:00] Speaker 4: with you where I let the skill position, you know,
[1:01:05] Speaker 4: tail wag the quarterback dog in best ball, where like
[1:01:09] Speaker 4: I usually am not like entering a draft being like, oh,
[1:01:12] Speaker 4: I want this to be a you know, Baker Mayfield team,
[1:01:16] Speaker 4: so therefore I'm in a draft you know.
[1:01:18] Speaker 5: A BUKA and then go from there.
[1:01:20] Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm not. I don't think I'm going out of
[1:01:22] Speaker 4: my way. That said, like I do, I think I
[1:01:24] Speaker 4: have an answer to the question of what team I'm
[1:01:26] Speaker 4: a little bit higher on, which would be the Packers.
[1:01:31] Speaker 4: I'm pretty pretty in on throw the Jacob's thing aside.
[1:01:34] Speaker 4: I think particularly they're they're past catchers and love right now.
[1:01:39] Speaker 4: I just really like how in years past, you know,
[1:01:42] Speaker 4: they always had this massive rotation, even like people talk
[1:01:45] Speaker 4: about Dantavian Wis and Romeo Dobbs. Malik Heath ran thirty
[1:01:49] Speaker 4: percent of routes last year, Like you got.
[1:01:51] Speaker 5: To get the Malik Heath roll in there for some reason.
[1:01:56] Speaker 4: And those guys are Dobbs has gone, Wicks has gone,
[1:01:58] Speaker 4: Heath has gone. It's it really should just be Watson,
[1:02:02] Speaker 4: Red and Golden really consolidating the routes. No Packers wide
[1:02:05] Speaker 4: receiver last year had more than a seventy seven percent
[1:02:08] Speaker 4: route participation. That put Romeo Dobbs at fifty third in
[1:02:12] Speaker 4: the league in route participation rate. So anyways, I think
[1:02:15] Speaker 4: that that could just really consolidate to the top guys.
[1:02:18] Speaker 4: I think their O line ranked by Brandon Thorne as
[1:02:22] Speaker 4: twenty ninth in the league this year. That's a bit concerning,
[1:02:25] Speaker 4: but I think could push them to the pass even
[1:02:28] Speaker 4: more if they're they're sort of unable to establish the
[1:02:31] Speaker 4: ground game with Jacobs as they have done the past
[1:02:33] Speaker 4: couple of years, and you know, we'll see with love
[1:02:35] Speaker 4: like he's always been one of those guys that's like
[1:02:38] Speaker 4: very high an EPA per play like Canny scale that
[1:02:41] Speaker 4: efficiency to a larger sample size from a passing standpoint,
[1:02:45] Speaker 4: I think we'll find out this year. But I just
[1:02:47] Speaker 4: like how concentrated it could be, and I think that
[1:02:49] Speaker 4: that concentration is not fully reflected in these wide receivers
[1:02:52] Speaker 4: prices just because of how it's been in prior years.
[1:02:55] Speaker 1: Yeah, I love that call.
[1:02:57] Speaker 3: Laflora's offenses in Green may have never ranked in the
[1:03:01] Speaker 3: bottom half of the league and touchdowns per game either.
[1:03:03] Speaker 3: I mean, it's a very safe bet that offense is
[1:03:05] Speaker 3: just going to be good. And like you said, if
[1:03:07] Speaker 3: they don't rotate their wide receivers in such an infuriating
[1:03:10] Speaker 3: way as they've done in the past, then all of
[1:03:12] Speaker 3: a sudden you can see all of them payoff. I mean,
[1:03:14] Speaker 3: and you know, obviously, like in the individual draft that
[1:03:17] Speaker 3: you're drafting in it's like, you know, you make a
[1:03:20] Speaker 3: bet on you draft Jayden Reid. You make a bet
[1:03:22] Speaker 3: on Jayden Reid. Maybe that means that you're not getting mad.
[1:03:23] Speaker 3: Maybe you still get Matthew Golden, whatever the case. May be,
[1:03:25] Speaker 3: but like like, there are certainly outs where like Matthew
[1:03:28] Speaker 3: Golden is just doesn't progress and Jayden Reid takes on
[1:03:31] Speaker 3: more of an outside role, so you can see how
[1:03:33] Speaker 3: he would outplay ADP. Christian Watson was out of his
[1:03:37] Speaker 3: mind when he came back last year. You could see
[1:03:39] Speaker 3: how he would outplay ADP. And then Golden just goes
[1:03:41] Speaker 3: kind of late, and so you know what if he
[1:03:43] Speaker 3: does take that step forward. So I like that call
[1:03:45] Speaker 3: quite a bit. All right, before I let you go,
[1:03:48] Speaker 3: I need I need a bold take a bold prediction
[1:03:50] Speaker 3: for this twenty twenty six fantasy season.
[1:03:53] Speaker 4: Yeah, so I was trying to cook up something you
[1:03:55] Speaker 4: know better than you now. Wide receiver X will outperform
[1:04:00] Speaker 4: ADP by one round this year.
[1:04:01] Speaker 5: So I'll give this a run.
[1:04:04] Speaker 4: I'll say Colson Lovelin becomes the first tight end to
[1:04:07] Speaker 4: eclipse twenty PPR points per game since Travis Kelce back
[1:04:11] Speaker 4: in twenty twenty. Yeah, so yeah, I think, why it's
[1:04:16] Speaker 4: definitely bold if I can find that line of draftings,
[1:04:20] Speaker 4: I'm not doing it, but why it's not crazy. Let
[1:04:23] Speaker 4: me give you a bit of the case for that.
[1:04:25] Speaker 4: In games where he ran seventy percent of the routes
[1:04:28] Speaker 4: last year, So using that, realizing it's an arbitrary cutoff,
[1:04:32] Speaker 4: but saying, hey, games, he was kind of a full
[1:04:34] Speaker 4: time starter. He averaged eighteen and a half PPR points
[1:04:38] Speaker 4: per game, so he was right up on that twenty
[1:04:41] Speaker 4: point threshold in that small sample last year, and he
[1:04:45] Speaker 4: hit over twenty one points in.
[1:04:47] Speaker 5: Four out of six of those weeks.
[1:04:49] Speaker 4: I think, just like zooming way out, like obviously I
[1:04:53] Speaker 4: wouldn't take him over McBride, I wouldn't take him over Bowers.
[1:04:56] Speaker 5: Those guys should go ahead.
[1:04:58] Speaker 4: But if you think about like the true ceiling cases
[1:05:01] Speaker 4: for those three guys, one of them is on the
[1:05:03] Speaker 4: Las Vegas Raiders, one of them is on the Arizona Cardinals.
[1:05:07] Speaker 4: If you're making a case for one of these three
[1:05:08] Speaker 4: offenses being top five in the NFL and scoring, it
[1:05:11] Speaker 4: almost has to be the Bears over the Cardinals and Raiders.
[1:05:14] Speaker 5: Like it's not even close, you know.
[1:05:16] Speaker 4: Again, talking about concentration of offenses like we did with
[1:05:19] Speaker 4: the Packers, I think this thing will be really mega
[1:05:21] Speaker 4: concentrated on a Dune's Loveland and Burden in some order.
[1:05:27] Speaker 4: Like the wide receiver three is going to be Xavian
[1:05:30] Speaker 4: Thomas or Cliff Raymond. You know, there'll be a ton
[1:05:33] Speaker 4: of snaps with Sam Rousch and Cole Comet on the field.
[1:05:36] Speaker 4: I think you can see really high target rates for
[1:05:38] Speaker 4: those top three guys, And I just feel best about
[1:05:41] Speaker 4: Loveland emerging out of the three. So think he has
[1:05:45] Speaker 4: a real real ceiling this year in fantasy.
[1:05:48] Speaker 1: I like it.
[1:05:49] Speaker 3: I've seen a lot of the takes too of just like,
[1:05:51] Speaker 3: oh man, these guys are going so high in drafts,
[1:05:53] Speaker 3: like one of them isn't going to pay off at costs,
[1:05:55] Speaker 3: And I'm kind of like, I mean, I think it's
[1:05:57] Speaker 3: possible that all three can still be like okay realistically
[1:06:00] Speaker 3: because if they if it is hyper targeted like we
[1:06:03] Speaker 3: think it can be, not unlike what we've seen with
[1:06:06] Speaker 3: like Detroit with Ben Johnson right where it was hyper
[1:06:09] Speaker 3: targeted to those three guys, same positions, et cetera, where
[1:06:12] Speaker 3: you don't even have a running back that you're as
[1:06:15] Speaker 3: worried about as as you would be with the backfield
[1:06:18] Speaker 3: in Detroit, Like it depends on what you're saying, would
[1:06:21] Speaker 3: be like you know, like, are they all going to
[1:06:23] Speaker 3: be league winners? No, that would that would probably be impossible.
[1:06:25] Speaker 3: But could they all pay off in their own way
[1:06:27] Speaker 3: and best ball. I still think that it's it. It
[1:06:29] Speaker 3: could still be the case because of how hyper targeted
[1:06:32] Speaker 3: those guys will be. I think the most likely outcome
[1:06:34] Speaker 3: is like two of them will be or you know,
[1:06:36] Speaker 3: will be like, yeah, the guys like don't get me wrong,
[1:06:38] Speaker 3: But I still think that there's like a still a
[1:06:40] Speaker 3: case that all three can be okay and not totally
[1:06:43] Speaker 3: tank your teams. You know, if you are getting exposure
[1:06:45] Speaker 3: to all three, yeah, one hundred percent.
[1:06:48] Speaker 5: And also it's like I get it's a bit of.
[1:06:51] Speaker 4: A a projection that Caleb Williams is going to take
[1:06:54] Speaker 4: another leap in year three.
[1:06:57] Speaker 5: He wasn't amazing last.
[1:06:59] Speaker 4: Year, even though it was a huge improvement from year
[1:07:01] Speaker 4: one to year two. But I really do think like
[1:07:03] Speaker 4: to some degree, in the NFL these days, it's like
[1:07:07] Speaker 4: it's haves versus have nots in terms of offensive coaching,
[1:07:11] Speaker 4: and like Ben Johnson is just so firmly in the
[1:07:14] Speaker 4: camp of coaches I'm willing to bet on. So if
[1:07:18] Speaker 4: you are going to make a projection on a year
[1:07:20] Speaker 4: three leap for a quarterback, which you do need the
[1:07:22] Speaker 4: leap for the quarterback, I think for this to happen
[1:07:24] Speaker 4: with Loveland and a dune Zan Burden, Like, I do
[1:07:27] Speaker 4: feel okay about that bet because it's Ben Johnson and
[1:07:30] Speaker 4: it's a quarterback who is considered one of the best
[1:07:34] Speaker 4: five quarterback prospects of the last fifteen years something like that, Right,
[1:07:37] Speaker 4: So it's a bet I'm willing to make.
[1:07:40] Speaker 3: Yeah, totally with you, all right, man, this is great.
[1:07:42] Speaker 3: I really appreciate the time. Let everyone know where they
[1:07:44] Speaker 3: can find you and what you're working on and such.
[1:07:47] Speaker 5: Yeah, you can find me every week.
[1:07:50] Speaker 4: I'm doing two shows, one on Pete Oversette's Best Ball
[1:07:55] Speaker 4: Breakfast stream and then on Legendary Upside doing a weekly
[1:07:59] Speaker 4: show with Packering called That's Fair. And then yeah, you
[1:08:04] Speaker 4: can also follow me on x at Sherman Underscore f
[1:08:09] Speaker 4: f B.
[1:08:10] Speaker 5: About like ten percent of my.
[1:08:11] Speaker 4: Tweets you should take seriously as a fair warning, so I'll.
[1:08:16] Speaker 5: Cave you out with that.
[1:08:17] Speaker 4: You can find my more straightforward analysis on those prior
[1:08:22] Speaker 4: prior to streams.
[1:08:23] Speaker 3: Great great follow though we were talking before we started,
[1:08:26] Speaker 3: you know, after you had the big win last year
[1:08:28] Speaker 3: and just the sarcasm that came through and so many
[1:08:31] Speaker 3: the tweets it was. It was brilliant brilliantly done. Great
[1:08:34] Speaker 3: follow on Twitter. I appreciate the time and like I said,
[1:08:37] Speaker 3: check out lateround dot com Late Round Draft Guide. Make
[1:08:41] Speaker 3: sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel and the podcast.
[1:08:44] Speaker 3: Otherwise everyone, thanks for tuning in.

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