# 1103: Market Score

An episode of [The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1224965828), 2 Jun 2026, 17 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0a233618-d694-4c81-a139-b34e00f98fb1/436037af-3197-444c-aa24-b4590126c687/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=5747cc82-33a9-497c-8353-b34e00f98fbe

JJ introduces a brand new metric that utilizes average draft position, and he talks through a handful of players it likes and doesn't like here in 2026. Make sure to check out LateRound.com to pre-order the 2026 Draft Guide. And while you're there, become a member! The new Members Hub is the place for rankings and tiers, data dumps, and more. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: This is the last with your host JJ Zacheri JJ
[0:06] Speaker 1: zacher reson what's up everyone. It's JJ zachar Esen in
[0:14] Speaker 1: this episode eleven three of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast.
[0:19] Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in. Many of you are familiar with
[0:22] Speaker 1: the Zapp model. There's one at running back, wide receiver,
[0:25] Speaker 1: and tight end, and the model aims to project a
[0:27] Speaker 1: player's fantasy output across his first three seasons in the NFL.
[0:31] Speaker 1: That's been something you've read and listened about for years now,
[0:35] Speaker 1: and many of you know that draft capital is sort
[0:37] Speaker 1: of the foundation of those models. Everything revolves around where
[0:41] Speaker 1: a player gets drafted, and it pivots off of that
[0:43] Speaker 1: based on various inputs age justin, production size, teammate scores,
[0:48] Speaker 1: program strength, and so on. A typical wide receiver drafted
[0:52] Speaker 1: fiftieth overall might be expected to have a Zapp score
[0:54] Speaker 1: of say sixty five, but if he has really good inputs,
[0:58] Speaker 1: that number can be a lot high. If the inputs
[1:01] Speaker 1: are bad, then it can be lower. Those models have
[1:04] Speaker 1: served me well through the years. They're helpful tools during
[1:07] Speaker 1: your rookie drafts to help you make better decisions. But
[1:11] Speaker 1: for a while now I've been wondering why that logic
[1:14] Speaker 1: stops with the NFL Draft. Why create a model like
[1:17] Speaker 1: that only for prospecting. Why not do something similar for
[1:21] Speaker 1: our season long leagues. That's what myself and Brandon Godola
[1:25] Speaker 1: have been working on this offseason, and for the first
[1:27] Speaker 1: time I'm talking about it with all of you, introducing
[1:32] Speaker 1: market Score. Now, before I dive deeper into this, I
[1:36] Speaker 1: did want to remind you to check out the BrandNew
[1:38] Speaker 1: Lateround dot com. You can become a member, become a
[1:41] Speaker 1: subscriber straight on the website now not Patreon. You can
[1:45] Speaker 1: pre order the twenty twenty six Draft Guide if you'd like,
[1:48] Speaker 1: or you can just look at how pretty the site is.
[1:51] Speaker 1: Regardless of what you do, at least check it out
[1:53] Speaker 1: Lateround dot com. Market scores a metric that lets us
[1:57] Speaker 1: see if a player is overvalued or under valued by
[2:00] Speaker 1: the market. It looks at a player's average draft position,
[2:03] Speaker 1: It factors in some previous season numbers, and it says
[2:06] Speaker 1: this player is expected to play above or below expected
[2:09] Speaker 1: this year. Let me explain this a little bit further.
[2:12] Speaker 1: I talk about average draft position expectation all the time
[2:15] Speaker 1: on the show and in the Draft guide. Essentially, when
[2:18] Speaker 1: you do a little bit of regression analysis, you can
[2:21] Speaker 1: find the number of points per game we'd expect a
[2:23] Speaker 1: player to score at a particular ADP. A wide receiver
[2:26] Speaker 1: selected fiftieth overall based on history, might be expected to
[2:29] Speaker 1: score something like thirteen pper points per game. That's his
[2:33] Speaker 1: expected points per game. Now, obviously, if he was drafted earlier,
[2:37] Speaker 1: that expectation would rise. If he's later, it would fall.
[2:42] Speaker 1: Market score takes that number, it factors in some previous
[2:45] Speaker 1: season analytics, and it tells us how many points above
[2:49] Speaker 1: or below that number we should expect the player to score,
[2:52] Speaker 1: all based on his ADP. So, just like the ZAP model,
[2:56] Speaker 1: this is centered around market value, but instead of draft capital,
[3:01] Speaker 1: it's average draft position. The obvious problem that pops up
[3:05] Speaker 1: is that ADP is dynamic. It changes, and it fluctuates
[3:09] Speaker 1: draft capital. Once it's set from the NFL draft, we're
[3:12] Speaker 1: good to go. And that's definitely gonna be something I've
[3:14] Speaker 1: got to talk about when I reference market score within
[3:16] Speaker 1: my content. The formula might like a player in May
[3:20] Speaker 1: or June, but if his cost really changes through the summer,
[3:23] Speaker 1: then all of a sudden, we could be looking at
[3:24] Speaker 1: the player totally differently. At least through the lens of
[3:27] Speaker 1: market score. Now, look me talking about this. I'm sure
[3:30] Speaker 1: you're curious about what market score says about players here
[3:33] Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six, But before we get into that,
[3:36] Speaker 1: I want to share sort of the historical numbers with
[3:39] Speaker 1: this metric to really wrap your head around what this
[3:41] Speaker 1: is doing. Average draft position is a pretty good indicator
[3:45] Speaker 1: of how good or bad a player is going to be,
[3:47] Speaker 1: but just like draft capital, it is far from flawless.
[3:51] Speaker 1: And just like draft capital, there are parts of the draft,
[3:53] Speaker 1: mostly in the middle and late rounds, where average draft
[3:56] Speaker 1: position becomes far less predictive. For example, round tight ends
[4:01] Speaker 1: something I've talked about for years now. They really just suck,
[4:04] Speaker 1: as in, we're terrible at predicting which ones are gonna
[4:07] Speaker 1: be good tight ends. Pick sixty first, so just after
[4:10] Speaker 1: round five through pick one twenty or through round ten
[4:14] Speaker 1: of a twelve team league, there's zero correlation between where
[4:17] Speaker 1: the tight end was drafted within that range and how
[4:20] Speaker 1: many points per game that tight end scored. The r
[4:23] Speaker 1: score is zero point seven percent, meaning ADP explains virtually
[4:27] Speaker 1: none of the variation in fantasy scoring for tight ends
[4:30] Speaker 1: drafted in that range. It's irrelevant. But with market score
[4:33] Speaker 1: we get that R square to about fourteen percent, which
[4:36] Speaker 1: isn't like an assolve all of our problems, but it
[4:39] Speaker 1: directionally gets us into the right place throughout your draft.
[4:43] Speaker 1: In general, market score is more predictive than ADP, and
[4:48] Speaker 1: there are certain spots where historically it's been insanely more predictive,
[4:52] Speaker 1: like with middle round quarterbacks. Quarterbacks drafted in that same range,
[4:57] Speaker 1: that round six through round ten range. We have an
[4:59] Speaker 1: RC squared of one point three percent when looking at
[5:02] Speaker 1: ADP versus actual points per game since twenty fourteen with
[5:06] Speaker 1: market score. So if we replace expected fantasy points per
[5:09] Speaker 1: game on ADP with a player's expected fantasy points per
[5:12] Speaker 1: game via market score, that are squared shoots up to
[5:16] Speaker 1: twenty three percent. That's pretty crazy. Now. I could go
[5:20] Speaker 1: on and on talking about this, but the TLDR is
[5:23] Speaker 1: that this has been tested in throughout your draft. Market
[5:26] Speaker 1: score is going to be more predictive than average draft position,
[5:30] Speaker 1: or at least average draft position expectation. Otherwise, why would
[5:34] Speaker 1: we want to have a model like this, right, there
[5:36] Speaker 1: would be no point to have market score if it
[5:39] Speaker 1: wasn't more predictive than what ADP is Just generally giving
[5:42] Speaker 1: you now. Just to be clear, market score can be
[5:44] Speaker 1: both positive and negative, and it generally will range from
[5:48] Speaker 1: like minus four to plus four, meaning a player would
[5:51] Speaker 1: be expected to score between minus four to plus four
[5:54] Speaker 1: PPR points per game. Above or below has expected points
[5:56] Speaker 1: per game. A score of zero would mean he's simply
[5:59] Speaker 1: expect to score. What is ADP says he'll score, he's
[6:02] Speaker 1: being drafted in the right place. Let's start with quarterback
[6:06] Speaker 1: to really wrap our heads around this concept. When look
[6:09] Speaker 1: at early round quarterbacks or top sixty pick since twenty fourteen,
[6:12] Speaker 1: quarterbacks with market scores below minus point five have beaten
[6:17] Speaker 1: expectation by two or more points per game at a
[6:19] Speaker 1: twenty five percent rate. They've underperformed versus expectation by two
[6:23] Speaker 1: or more points at a thirty eight percent rate when
[6:27] Speaker 1: that market score is above one. Though the opposite end,
[6:31] Speaker 1: when market score is saying this quarterback is undervalued by
[6:34] Speaker 1: at least one point per game, we see those quarterbacks
[6:37] Speaker 1: outperform expectation by two or more points per game at
[6:40] Speaker 1: a thirty six percent rate, so it's eleven percentage points
[6:44] Speaker 1: higher than when they were at minus point five or
[6:46] Speaker 1: lower in market score. And then they underperform by two
[6:49] Speaker 1: or more points per game at just a nine percent rate.
[6:53] Speaker 1: So essentially, I can look at all of this in
[6:55] Speaker 1: a similar way that I do other analysis for the
[6:57] Speaker 1: Draft Guide. Each year, I can find the player's market
[7:00] Speaker 1: score at a certain position, and I can see how
[7:03] Speaker 1: frequently that player played really far above or really far
[7:06] Speaker 1: below expectation in that given year. Now, as for a
[7:09] Speaker 1: results since twenty twenty five is fresh in our minds,
[7:12] Speaker 1: let's go over some of those, and I'm only going
[7:15] Speaker 1: to include players who ended up playing eight or more games,
[7:17] Speaker 1: so we have enough of a sample to judge their
[7:19] Speaker 1: points per game outputs. Last year, unfortunately, the best value
[7:24] Speaker 1: by market score a quarterback was Jalen Hurts. This is
[7:27] Speaker 1: not off to a good start. I was in on
[7:30] Speaker 1: him two and he underperformed versus expectation. His market score
[7:34] Speaker 1: was plus two point six last year, meaning the metric
[7:37] Speaker 1: thought that he'd outperform his ADP expectation by two point
[7:41] Speaker 1: six points per game, but he underperformed by one point
[7:45] Speaker 1: one points per game. Since twenty fourteen, we've had fifteen
[7:49] Speaker 1: other quarterback seasons where the quarterback entered the year with
[7:52] Speaker 1: a market score above one point five. So Hurts was
[7:55] Speaker 1: a good bit above that. Of those fifteen, three of
[7:58] Speaker 1: them failed to play a more games, So there's twelve
[8:02] Speaker 1: remaining quarterbacks, and of those twelve quarterbacks, only three of
[8:06] Speaker 1: them played below expectation. So essentially, Jalen Hurts underperforming last
[8:11] Speaker 1: year wasn't something that we'd seen very frequently with his
[8:15] Speaker 1: type of market score. Aside from Hurts, though, on the
[8:18] Speaker 1: top of the list in market Score last year, we
[8:21] Speaker 1: had Josh Allen he played over two points above expected,
[8:24] Speaker 1: Caleb Williams he also played two points above expected, and
[8:28] Speaker 1: then Brock Purdy played four points above expected. Those were
[8:32] Speaker 1: the top players at quarterback within market Score last year.
[8:36] Speaker 1: On the flip side, the four biggest fades at quarterback
[8:39] Speaker 1: according to market Score were Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson,
[8:44] Speaker 1: and Jordan Love Now. Goff technically played above expected, albeit barely,
[8:50] Speaker 1: but the other three they technically played below expected, especially
[8:53] Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield who ended up busting and then Lamar Jackson
[8:57] Speaker 1: he busted even more. And then there's the running backs
[9:00] Speaker 1: who were drafted in the top ten rounds by ADP.
[9:03] Speaker 1: Like quarterback, we had a pretty big miss at the
[9:05] Speaker 1: top of the list at running back in Alvin Kamara.
[9:08] Speaker 1: He played three point eight ppo points per game below
[9:10] Speaker 1: expected when his market score was plus two point eight.
[9:14] Speaker 1: That's a big miss. But the other players at the
[9:17] Speaker 1: top of that list, Breise Hall played slightly above expected,
[9:20] Speaker 1: Zach sharbonet well above expected, and then Devon a Chan
[9:23] Speaker 1: and Jamier Gibbs, both of them crushed last year. Now
[9:27] Speaker 1: on the flip side, market score didn't like Jacorey Krosky
[9:29] Speaker 1: merrit that was solid. It didn't like Nick Chubb who
[9:33] Speaker 1: barely squeezed into that range based on the ADP source
[9:36] Speaker 1: that we're using over at Fantasy data dot Com, but
[9:39] Speaker 1: that was obviously a win. It didn't like RJ. Harvey
[9:42] Speaker 1: very much. That was a pretty good call. And then
[9:45] Speaker 1: the other call out was Kyron Williams, which was kind
[9:48] Speaker 1: of a miss, but Williams did start to see that
[9:50] Speaker 1: dip in production as the season went on. So last
[9:53] Speaker 1: year at running back overall okay, but nothing amazing. Wide
[9:57] Speaker 1: receiver and tight end really USh last year. Listen to
[10:02] Speaker 1: the top five values at wide receiver according to market
[10:04] Speaker 1: score last season. Pukaakua was first with a market score
[10:08] Speaker 1: of two point eight. He crushed Jalen Waddle was next,
[10:11] Speaker 1: and he played two point two points per game above expected.
[10:15] Speaker 1: And then it was George Pickens, he destroyed. AJ Brown
[10:19] Speaker 1: was next. He technically actually played above ADP expectation, though
[10:23] Speaker 1: it wasn't a great year. And then lastly, Chris Alave,
[10:27] Speaker 1: I mean, that's a solid, solid group of five players.
[10:29] Speaker 1: You had three league winning wide receivers in that group.
[10:34] Speaker 1: And then on the flip side, market score didn't like
[10:36] Speaker 1: Marvin Harrison the most. That's a w Stefan Diggs was
[10:40] Speaker 1: on there. That was kind of whatever, but so was
[10:42] Speaker 1: Cooper Cup, Justin Jefferson and DK Metcalf. Market Score literally
[10:47] Speaker 1: said Justin Jefferson had a score of minus one last year.
[10:51] Speaker 1: I think that's pretty cool. And then listen to the
[10:53] Speaker 1: top four tight end values last year. The tight ends
[10:56] Speaker 1: with the highest market scores Tyler Warren Kittle, Tucker Kraft,
[11:01] Speaker 1: and Trey McBride. Here are the worst values, Evan Ingram,
[11:06] Speaker 1: David and Joku, TJ. Hockinson, and Travis Kelcey. Now, some
[11:11] Speaker 1: of these names were predictable without using market Score. Of course,
[11:15] Speaker 1: a lot of them were targets. A lot of them
[11:17] Speaker 1: were avoids in the draft guide last year. But just
[11:19] Speaker 1: like the ZAP models. I think market score can serve
[11:22] Speaker 1: as a metric that can ground us if we're really
[11:25] Speaker 1: high on a player, but market score says, hey, this
[11:28] Speaker 1: is a red flag situation, Maybe we look into that
[11:31] Speaker 1: player a little bit more. And I feel that way
[11:33] Speaker 1: a little bit about guys being drafted here in twenty
[11:35] Speaker 1: twenty six. Not so much at quarterback, though, the player
[11:39] Speaker 1: with the best market score is drum roll, please, Josh
[11:43] Speaker 1: freaking Allen. Go figure. The model just loves him for
[11:47] Speaker 1: obvious reasons. But he's sitting with a market score of
[11:50] Speaker 1: two point three, and that's at an overall ADP of
[11:53] Speaker 1: twenty ninth overall. At twenty ninth overall, his expected points
[11:57] Speaker 1: per game is twenty point three score imply something closer
[12:01] Speaker 1: to twenty two point six. Other names at the top
[12:04] Speaker 1: of the list right now include Jackson Dart, which I
[12:06] Speaker 1: thought was pretty interesting, cam Ward which I thought was
[12:09] Speaker 1: really interesting, Jalen Hurts once again, and then Justin Herbert,
[12:14] Speaker 1: all players that I can definitely get behind in one
[12:16] Speaker 1: way or another. Now on the flip side, the biggest
[12:19] Speaker 1: call out is definitely Matthew Stafford. Beyond him, there aren't
[12:24] Speaker 1: a ton of red flag players but Stafford's got a
[12:27] Speaker 1: score of minus two point five, which really is a
[12:30] Speaker 1: number that we don't see that much from a non
[12:32] Speaker 1: elite quarterback. Funny enough, back in twenty twenty two, Matthew
[12:36] Speaker 1: Stafford was the QB twelve and he had a market
[12:38] Speaker 1: score of minus one point six. In nine games that year,
[12:42] Speaker 1: he played five point three points per game below expected.
[12:46] Speaker 1: Now I highly doubt that happens, but we know regression
[12:49] Speaker 1: is coming for Stafford, so it's no surprise that he's
[12:51] Speaker 1: at the bottom of the list when you consider cost,
[12:54] Speaker 1: which is ninety fourth overall in QB thirteen. The running
[12:58] Speaker 1: back list actually shocked me a little bit. Iolemnung Guy
[13:00] Speaker 1: and Blake Korum, two players I literally just talked about
[13:03] Speaker 1: last week as high floor, kind of low ceiling without
[13:06] Speaker 1: an injury type of players. Market score loves them. They
[13:10] Speaker 1: have scores of almost two. On the red flag side,
[13:13] Speaker 1: it's Kyan Williams, so I think the model just doesn't
[13:16] Speaker 1: like in general for a number of reasons. But it's
[13:18] Speaker 1: Kien Williams and Tony Pollard. The fact that my analysis
[13:22] Speaker 1: on Pollard called him a fade, and then this is
[13:24] Speaker 1: saying that he'll play one point eight points per game
[13:26] Speaker 1: below expected. It's not looking great now. After last year's
[13:30] Speaker 1: wide receiver showing, I was pretty interested to see what
[13:33] Speaker 1: market Score said about this year's group, and we got
[13:35] Speaker 1: familiar faces at the top, Pukinakua and George Pickens. Jordan
[13:40] Speaker 1: Tyson was actually third on the list. A lot of
[13:43] Speaker 1: that has to do with the fact that rookies get
[13:44] Speaker 1: treated differently within the model because we don't have previous
[13:47] Speaker 1: season data. And unsurprisingly, the market Score model uses zapp
[13:51] Speaker 1: scores as an input because ZAP score is predictive, and
[13:55] Speaker 1: the ZAP model loved Jordan Tyson, so this model likes
[13:58] Speaker 1: him a lot too. Carneal, it's really high too, as
[14:01] Speaker 1: is Wandel Robinson, Alec Pierce, and Terry McLaurin. Market Score
[14:05] Speaker 1: just seems to really like this Tennessee passing attack, which
[14:08] Speaker 1: is kind of frightening on the flip side as much
[14:11] Speaker 1: as it pains me. It's not vibing much with a
[14:13] Speaker 1: Mecca Buca. That's something that's gonna want to make me
[14:16] Speaker 1: investigate further. It also doesn't really like Quentin Johnston, and
[14:20] Speaker 1: then the last call out is Ceed Lamb, so it
[14:23] Speaker 1: likes Pickens at his ADP but it doesn't like Lamb
[14:26] Speaker 1: at his ADP. It doesn't mean that it likes Pickens
[14:30] Speaker 1: straight up more than Lamb. Remember this is all versus cost,
[14:33] Speaker 1: and Lamb's a tenth overall pick according to this ADP.
[14:36] Speaker 1: Pickens twenty sixth. And then lastly, tight end. I thought
[14:41] Speaker 1: this was pretty funny. I mentioned some tight ends on
[14:43] Speaker 1: last week's Mailbag episode without even looking at market score,
[14:47] Speaker 1: and literally three of the top four tight ends by
[14:49] Speaker 1: market score are players that I mentioned. Greg Dolsich is
[14:53] Speaker 1: number one, Tucker Kraft is number two, Pat Fryermuth is
[14:56] Speaker 1: number three, and Juwan Johnson is number four. On the
[15:00] Speaker 1: other end, it's got a bunch of rookie tight ends,
[15:02] Speaker 1: and then brock Bauers is actually viewed as overvalue, though
[15:04] Speaker 1: I wouldn't overthink that David and Joku, Jake Ferguson, and
[15:08] Speaker 1: Dallas Goddard round things off on the red flag side. Now,
[15:13] Speaker 1: all of those names are going to change as the
[15:14] Speaker 1: summer moves forward, because average draft position changes. We're still
[15:18] Speaker 1: very early on in this process, but as we get
[15:21] Speaker 1: into August, when our drafts are happening, we'll have a
[15:24] Speaker 1: pretty good idea of which player's market score is into
[15:26] Speaker 1: and which players it isn't, And there's no doubt I'm
[15:28] Speaker 1: going to be referencing those scores both on the podcast
[15:31] Speaker 1: and in the draft guide this year. There's so much
[15:34] Speaker 1: to still uncover with this metric. This is really the
[15:37] Speaker 1: two point zero of Late Round Fantasy Football. We've got
[15:40] Speaker 1: this new website, we have this new members hub, but
[15:43] Speaker 1: Brandon Goadoula and I we're also working on a ton
[15:45] Speaker 1: of these different ways that we can dissect this game
[15:47] Speaker 1: through numbers and analytics. Market score is awesome. It's something
[15:51] Speaker 1: that we want to continue to develop and make better.
[15:54] Speaker 1: But beyond market Score, there's more on the way too.
[15:58] Speaker 1: That's it for today's show, though, Thanks a hell of
[16:00] Speaker 1: you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late
[16:02] Speaker 1: Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are bustortching for
[16:05] Speaker 1: it pretty much anywhere. Podcasts could be found in door
[16:08] Speaker 1: to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at
[16:10] Speaker 1: Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll be back
[16:13] Speaker 1: in your ears on Wednesday live on YouTube for the
[16:16] Speaker 1: Late Round Fantasy Football Show, and then on Friday you
[16:19] Speaker 1: get an episode of Late Round Perspectives. I'll talk to
[16:22] Speaker 1: you then

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