# Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

- Institution: Syracuse University
- Department: Management
- Teacher: Prof. N. Gautam
- Level: Undergraduate
- Language: English
- Subjects: Business and management
- Source: [NPTEL](https://nptel.ac.in/courses/110106134)
- Licence: [CC BY-NC-SA](https://nptel.ac.in/faq) (Non-commercial use only.)
- Syllabus: [at the source](https://nptel.ac.in/courses/110106134)
- Who can watch: Tweens profiles and older (sources give no ratings; placed by Invisible Network from the source's own words)

We are often faced with situations where we need to make decisions that have implications for personal and institutional goals. When there is uncertainty involved, we could either go with our gut feeling or take an analytical approach by characterizing the uncertainty, defining an objective, and evaluating the risk/payoffs of choices. This course is about the latter and is presented through the usage of example problem instances.

INTENDED AUDIENCE : Any Interested Learners

PREREQUISITES : Undergraduate course in probability (including topics on random variables and expected value); calculus and algebra

INDUSTRY SUPPORT : Most industries would find this useful (examples in course are in retail, supply chain and hospitality)

## Lectures

1. [Background and relevance](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/467a3a3103ea) (YouTube)
2. [Examples of managing uncertainty and making decisions](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/aad42e58e8e4) (YouTube)
3. [Risk, uncertainty and variability](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/e175e1372728) (YouTube)
4. [Probability: Events, Conditioning and Total Probability](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/04ef962140a8) (YouTube)
5. [Discrete random variables](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/b8591378ec66) (YouTube)
6. [Continuous random variables: characterisitcs and examples](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/c8e551f82ba5) (YouTube)
7. [Expected Value: Mean, Variance and Functions](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/dda43b82d3fe) (YouTube)
8. [Multiple Random Variables: Discrete and Continuous](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/b04ae3d3bb94) (YouTube)
9. [Criteria, Objectives and Settings for Decisions](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/54f85b09f1dc) (YouTube)
10. [Introduction to one-time decisions](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/78b6366cedd0) (YouTube)
11. [Solving the secretary problem](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/628d5c60442e) (YouTube)
12. [Which option to gamble just once?](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/b6fd4243a94e) (YouTube)
13. [Utility Function](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/b25e8bad9c01) (YouTube)
14. [Nested one-time decisions](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/b7a42a685db7) (YouTube)
15. [Decision Trees](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/35b84dff2bbf) (YouTube)
16. [Decisions in Game Shows: Final Jeopardy](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/61675dba4717) (YouTube)
17. [Decisions in Game Shows: Monte Hall](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/6419e4bf3d5d) (YouTube)
18. [Project Network and Analysis](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/5ffc066596f4) (YouTube)
19. [Newsvendor Problem: Background, Model and Analysis](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/dedb84c2b4f9) (YouTube)
20. [Newsvendor Problem: Example and Proof](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/c923e1871d2d) (YouTube)
21. [Buffers to Cushion for Fluctuations](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/39c010d3672e) (YouTube)
22. [Safety Stock for Inventories](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/f01f2a2bfae9) (YouTube)
23. [Safety Stock: Example and Derivation](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/896e472e7756) (YouTube)
24. [Route Planning](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/b153b54ae47b) (YouTube)
25. [Exploration and Exploitation](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/61d9f0c9dfbd) (YouTube)
26. [Introduction to sequential decision making](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/280eb9158d78) (YouTube)
27. [Costs, Ratings, Options and Choices for both Restaurants](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/e4ec173f33c5) (YouTube)
28. [Two Stage Stochastic Optimization](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/5d7c1f69b5cd) (YouTube)
29. [Concluding Remarks and Simpson's Paradox](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/014a62bff0c3) (YouTube)
30. [Markov Chains for Decisions](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/315f8046020b) (YouTube)
31. [DTMC Modeling and Analysis](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/1878392f3fe9) (YouTube)
32. [Markov Decision Process Set Up](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/83168412677c) (YouTube)
33. [Analyzing the four policies](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/nptel/110106134/4870a3bb5eeb) (YouTube)