# IDS.333 Risk and Decision Analysis

- Institution: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
- Department: Institute for Data, Systems, and Society
- Teacher: Prof. Richard de Neufville
- Term: Fall 2021
- Level: Graduate
- Language: English
- Subjects: Engineering, Art, architecture and design
- Source: [MIT OpenCourseWare](https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/)
- Licence: [CC BY-NC-SA 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/) (Non-commercial use only.)
- Syllabus: [at the source](https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/pages/syllabus/)
- Who can watch: Tweens profiles and older (sources give no ratings; placed by Invisible Network from the source's own words)

The course addresses a fundamental issue in system design and management, the need for engineering leaders to recognize uncertainty in the performance of their plans or designs. It presents discounted cash flow (DCF) Excel models, simulation, and decision analysis as primary ways to analyze possible outcomes of design and management strategies. It also addresses how we should analyze possible performance outcomes and cope with risks in demand, requirements, cost, technology, etc.

## Lectures

1. [Unit 2: the Forecast is always wrong, Video 1: Cost Estimates](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/c56f1ec0094c) (Video)
2. [Unit 2: The Forecast is ‘Always’ wrong, Video 2: Demand Forecasts](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/0a6f3e45a05e) (Video)
3. [Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 3: Porcupine Graphs](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/bac9672cf8c4) (Video)
4. [Unit 2: The Forecast is "Always" wrong, Video 4: Common Forecasting Process Inherently Flawed](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/4adedb4fc943) (Video)
5. [Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 5: Flaw of Averages 1-the Concept](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/f1475e3565bb) (Video)
6. [Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 6: Flaw of Averages 2-the Consequences](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/1329829162b5) (Video)
7. [Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 1: Introduction](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/6fad3ba82144) (Video)
8. [Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 2: Logic of Analysis](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/b3eba59ac8af) (Video)
9. [Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 3: Recognizing Uncertainty, Simulation](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/9d8b820922dc) (Video)
10. [Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 4: Adding Flexibility](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/7d1e81ab3252) (Video)
11. [Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 5: Design to Manage Uncertainties](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/3bdc86a3fcf1) (Video)
12. [Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 6: Flexibility is Win-Win](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/c3a37644286d) (Video)
13. [Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 1: Concept—What Is Needed](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/fe8db755451e) (Video)
14. [Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 2: Recommended Process](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/dda76fb901c4) (Video)
15. [Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 3: Outcomes and Target Curves](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/452a61a04c9d) (Video)
16. [Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 4: Decision Rules and Unit Closure](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/4210c4f1d99e) (Video)
17. [Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 5: Physical Situation](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/69d5085ebd24) (Video)
18. [Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 6: Simulation and Value Flexibility "on" Project](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/c9c390b64e4c) (Video)
19. [Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 7: Value of Flex "in" Project](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/e3ae466820ca) (Video)
20. [Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 1: Five Main Drivers—Uncertainty is Most Important](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/b9b5d725f393) (Video)
21. [Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 2: Economies of Scale](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/9682572f0aa9) (Video)
22. [Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 3: Discount rate and Learning Promote](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/77024ab0e773) (Video)
23. [Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 4: Balancing Overall Effect of Drivers](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/1384423b4723) (Video)
24. [Unit 8: Decision Analysis 1, Video 1: Advantages](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/548bd22bcd05) (Video)
25. [Unit 8: Decision Analysis 2, Video 2: Decision Trees](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/06384157e565) (Video)
26. [Unit 8: Decision Analysis 3, Video 3: Constructing Trees](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/c7ec56621284) (Video)
27. [Unit 8: Decision Analysis 4, Video 4: Multistage Analysis](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/1fc1d12c5802) (Video)
28. [Unit 8: Decision Analysis 5 Video 5: Retrospective Overview](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/9cd92323839b) (Video)
29. [Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 1: Concept of Test](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/d3cf522a781a) (Video)
30. [Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 2: Value of Test](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/618181bf138e) (Video)
31. [Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 3: Expected Value of Sample Information](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/bf55fbca1a90) (Video)
32. [Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 4: Expected Value of Perfect Information](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/dbecf725ef2e) (Video)
33. [Unit 9: Value of Information 5, Video 5: Is Test Worthwhile?](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/f14eeca9cc00) (Video)
34. [Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 1: Is Optimization Possible?](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/5b4e8ac26cb0) (Video)
35. [Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 2: Diminishing Marginal Utility](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/16a601f9388b) (Video)
36. [Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 3: Conditions for Value Function](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/e174a8700f1f) (Video)
37. [Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 4: Consequences](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/e1d2ef2e4806) (Video)
38. [Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 5: There's No Valid Group Utility](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/a1a516f86fbe) (Video)
39. [Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 6: Dominated Solutions](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/3a594624d09f) (Video)
40. [Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 7: Robustness and Take-aways](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/443d1a15ca0d) (Video)
41. [Unit 11: De-Salt and LNG Cases, Video 1: De-Salt Plant Australia](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/5d6bc5f8264f) (Video)
42. [Unit 11: LNG Case 1, Video 2: Introduction](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/b0737a180b0d) (Video)
43. [Unit 11: LNG Case 2, Video 3: Initial Analysis](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/ddff2c4ad238) (Video)
44. [Unit 11: LNG Case 3, Video 4: Learning effects](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/617da6b3d881) (Video)
45. [Unit 11: LNG Case 4, Video 5: Final Analysis](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/learn/mit/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/e726473da5d6) (Video)